- 7 weeks ago
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00:00Monday night football, Joe, going to be freezing cold.
00:03Miami, they like a little bit warmer than what it's going to be tonight
00:05in the low teens, maybe as low as 10 degrees at kickoff.
00:10Look at the line, opened up at 3.5 as a favorite towards the Steelers.
00:13It now sits at 3 across the board.
00:15The total, Joe, is going a little bit lower, 43.5 at the opening number,
00:1841.5 to 42.5, depending on where you're shopping tonight.
00:22Two a tag of my low in the Miami Dolphins.
00:24Look in the surge.
00:24By the way, you know they're still in the playoff hunt,
00:26and the Pittsburgh Steelers looking to stay atop of the AFC North division here.
00:31What's your spread line tonight for Miami and Pittsburgh, Joe?
00:34Well, this is crazy, right, because this whole thing has been all over the map.
00:38It was 3.5, Donnie, early in the week, and then we found out, of course,
00:43about Watt not being available and having the lung issue
00:48and being in the hospital, and it did, you know, the hook went away,
00:51so now here we are with a field goal, but it's interesting
00:55because we haven't really seen it drop below a field goal at any particular point here.
01:02You got Tomlin, who's 22-3 straight up on Monday night football games
01:06in his coaching career.
01:08You got Tua, who won a game finally under 45 degrees last week
01:12at MetLife against the Jets.
01:15Temperature tonight, eh, going to be somewhere around the teens, low teens, Donnie.
01:20You know all about this.
01:21This is going to be interesting.
01:23Can Tua continue and Mike McDaniel continue to do the unthinkable
01:28and win games and keep their season alive?
01:31I think this not dropping below a field goal has told you everything you need to know
01:36about the market and who they like in this game.
01:38Right back at it on the early line, Armchair Quarterback Monday,
01:41as we do it each and every Monday.
01:43It's Sonny Wright, side of Joe Ranieri.
01:45Now we bring in Tom Vecchio here to take a look at what happened yesterday
01:47and also try to apply our craft tonight in a cold-weather game
01:50between the Dolphins and the Steelers.
01:52Tom, how are we feeling today?
01:53I'm doing good.
01:54Certainly some interesting storylines heading into this game.
01:58You know, a lot of people are going to talk about, you know,
01:59Tua not winning in cold games.
02:01I will say he did beat the Jets last week.
02:04That game was sub-40, but it was in the upper 30s.
02:07It's not like the mid to low 20s that we could see tonight.
02:10But the fact that both teams are still alive is a little bit surprising to me,
02:13but that gives us a great game to break down.
02:16Yeah, Jets are notorious for giving up a lot of points these past couple weeks
02:20wherever the heck they're going with it.
02:21But, Tom, let me start yesterday real quick because we talked and said,
02:24you know, during the week,
02:25Phillip Rivers is coming back to the Indianapolis Colts,
02:27and what's it going to look like?
02:28You had a really good handicap there by saying,
02:30just hand the football off, left, right, up the middle,
02:34deep, short, as well as you can for Jonathan Taylor.
02:37And that worked out well.
02:38But honestly, talk to me, because I watched that entire game,
02:41and I had Michael Pittman over 31 and a half receiving yards.
02:44He had 25 at the break, didn't get there.
02:45I mean, I'm already upset about that now.
02:47But watching that game, it's not sustainable.
02:49It was a good story for Phillip Rivers to come back.
02:52He can't be your quarterback next week.
02:53It had to be a one-week feeling because that offense,
02:56and forget about Seattle.
02:57I'm going to pick on them a little bit later.
02:59What did you see from Phillip Rivers that shows he should get another start
03:02next week, or does he deserve it?
03:04I think they'll stick with him.
03:05Joe and I were live for all of that game.
03:07We were going through a play-by-play, essentially.
03:09But, you know, Riley Leonard,
03:11I'm not sure if he gives them a better shot to win.
03:14I think Rivers gives them a better shot to not lose.
03:17I know that's a terrible way to put it,
03:18but they just want him out there just to manage the game.
03:21They just want him out there.
03:22You hand the ball off, you hand the ball off,
03:24it's like, all right, it's third and three.
03:25Try and pick up the first down.
03:26At least he knows what the pressures are going to look like.
03:29He knows what the blitzes are going to look like.
03:31And Riley Leonard just does not have that experience, right?
03:33So, although Rivers is immobile and he's old and he's slow and all these
03:37things, at least he has the mental wherewithal that he's seen it all
03:41before.
03:44Yeah, I mean, it was pretty funny watching it all.
03:47He gave them a chance to win,
03:49which is the only thing they asked them to do was give them a chance to win.
03:53But how do you win on six field goals, Tom?
03:56Six field goals is the only way you were able to beat a defense that was
04:01missing its three best players, two in the secondary and one on the defensive
04:06line.
04:06I don't know, Seattle.
04:08That's a head scratcher to me.
04:10Absolutely terrible.
04:11That game had one touchdown and it was honestly one of the most exciting
04:13games of the year, which is crazy to say.
04:16But honestly, it's like an indictment on Seattle.
04:19Like they had, they were 14 point favorites.
04:22They barely won that game and the game plan should have been pass the ball,
04:26get up by 14 points with JSN and Sam Darnold and then run, run, run.
04:30And then the Colts can't do anything and they failed that.
04:34It's such a good point you bring up too,
04:35because you want to give Shane Steichen a lot of credit knowing that he doesn't
04:38have a lot of bullets in the chamber, but boy, they expanded.
04:40Also a six,
04:41they played for a 60 yard field goal at the end of the game and groupie
04:44actually hit it, but then their defense fell apart, which is Tom points out
04:47coming in that game.
04:48And my handicap was yes, the same as Tom thought where I,
04:52we don't need to run the football, air it out against that secondary,
04:54build a lead and no way the Colts can come back.
04:56And all of a sudden I'm watching that game all the way through and
04:58Seattle's handing it off, handing it off, hand it off.
05:00But when they needed the pass, they could,
05:02but when they wanted to run an offensive game plan,
05:04it looked absolutely terrible.
05:05Tom, let's flip it over to Monday night football, cold weather game,
05:09Miami and Pittsburgh, Miami still in the playoff hunt.
05:12Pittsburgh is still looking to win the AFC North here.
05:14This line opened up at three and a half at some outlets.
05:16It's just a three on game day, 41 and a half to 42 and a half,
05:20depending on where you're shopping out here as a total in this one,
05:22tag of our low and Rogers tonight.
05:24I don't know if we see a lot of explosiveness or do we Tom?
05:27What do you think?
05:29Yeah, I think it's a, it's a tough game.
05:31It's obviously very interesting with, you know,
05:32so many things pulling in different directions, Rogers, you know,
05:35they won last week, but how healthy is his hand?
05:37Cause you know, prior to that, he looked terrible against Buffalo,
05:40the cold weather, you know, the 41 or 42 and a half is super tough.
05:44You know, we could have a game and 23, 20,
05:48that barely sneaks over.
05:49Like that's not a high scoring game by any measure.
05:51It falls right at that number.
05:52If you've got the three and a half with the dolphins earlier in the week,
05:55when it opened, that's a fantastic spot.
05:57I don't love the three laying with the Steelers.
06:00I don't love the total, you know,
06:01from a prop perspective,
06:02I think it's somewhat interesting just because I think there's some clear
06:05spots to go to.
06:08So, I mean, who do we focus on that?
06:10Because I, you know, it screams under,
06:13I think it's going to be an under,
06:15but so who do we focus on then on both of these teams here to have big
06:20games?
06:21So under,
06:22I think this is a game where we're going to see Chris Boswell do well.
06:25And I'm not saying I like his crops,
06:26but I think the teams will move the ball,
06:28but then they'll just settle for field goals.
06:29So we'll get, we'll get some yardage.
06:31We may not get touchdowns,
06:32but we'll get yardage.
06:34So Kenny Gainwell for the Steelers over 22 and a half receiving yards,
06:38really like that.
06:39The dolphins,
06:39they've allowed 458 receiving yards to opposing running backs.
06:42That's the 13th most in the league.
06:44And so there are bottom 13 defense against running backs in our seat game,
06:47and they have yet to play this game.
06:48So there are game behind other teams and they're still this bad.
06:52So Gainwell,
06:53love a player.
06:54Rogers likes him.
06:55And I love the production.
06:56I've been getting at him.
06:57And then when we look to Devon H in his most recent game against the Jets,
07:01we've got to remember that he left early.
07:02So we can't be looking at the seven carries that he had in that game,
07:04but I like him over 16 and a half rush attempts.
07:07That is sitting at minus one,
07:0833,
07:0833.
07:09It's a little bit of juice,
07:10but we look to the dolphins.
07:11Their 54 pass play percentage is 20th in the league over the last three weeks.
07:16That has dropped to 40.9.
07:18They have a 60% run play percentage over the last three weeks.
07:2240% pass play is the lowest in the league.
07:25They are keeping the ball out of to his hands.
07:27And with how bad the Steelers run defenses.
07:29And now without TJ Watt,
07:31it's got to be a big HN game if they want a shot to win.
07:34Yeah.
07:34We'll start to look now moving forward.
07:36Some of these Saturday games starting to creep in.
07:38We've got a doubleheader on Saturday,
07:39Green Bay in Chicago,
07:40Philadelphia,
07:40and Washington.
07:41And again,
07:42the Rams and the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night,
07:44some really good playoff implication games,
07:46Tom,
07:46but we saw some devastating injuries yesterday.
07:48Patrick Mahomes goes down.
07:50Micah Parsons goes down.
07:51You saw,
07:51you know,
07:52Devontae Adams who's struggling for the past couple of weeks at hamstring.
07:55It finally gave way as well.
07:57There's a lot of big time players.
07:58They're going to be on the shelf for some of these meaningful games,
08:00Tom.
08:01Yeah.
08:02And I think the one first and foremost is Thursday night with Stafford and Pupa did get
08:06banged up.
08:07He came back,
08:07but it's still a short week.
08:08It's a divisional matchup.
08:10So to me,
08:11honestly,
08:12immediately my mind on Thursday goes to Blake Corum.
08:15He's been,
08:15he's been looking good.
08:17He scored yesterday and the snap share and the touch share has,
08:21has kind of tightened for Kyron Williams and Blake Corum.
08:25It's a short week.
08:26The Rams need to come away with the wind.
08:27So getting Corum more involved in taking the pressure off of Stafford running on the road,
08:31shorthanded probably without Devontae.
08:34I think that's the path on Thursday.
08:36Yeah.
08:36It'd be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks because teams
08:39that we usually look to be high powered and fun,
08:41like the Cincinnati Bengals,
08:42they're out of the playoffs and Gardner Minshew came in,
08:44had a couple of completions,
08:45then throw the interception.
08:46What did the chiefs look like without Patrick Holmes?
08:48And also,
08:49are they just going to hang it up for the rest of the season and put guys on IR?
08:52Tom Becchio,
08:53thanks for rising and grinding on a Monday with us on the early line.
08:55Donnie Wright,
08:56we'll be right back for Monday night football information coming up.
09:00Steelers Dolphins Monday night football,
09:03both teams vying for a playoff spot.
09:04Who would have thought Miami just a few short weeks ago would be vying for a playoff spot?
09:08Well,
09:08here they are.
09:08Miami Dolphins haven't been eliminated before the Kansas city chiefs.
09:12That's insanity,
09:13but it also is reality.
09:15The Dolphins travel to Pittsburgh tonight.
09:16Joe,
09:16look at the weather conditions,
09:18partly cloudy,
09:18no problems there.
09:2017 degrees at kickoff precipitation,
09:23none in the forecast and wins Joe five miles an hour,
09:26more or less.
09:27We actually have some pretty good conditions for Pittsburgh.
09:29It's just going to be very cold,
09:30which again,
09:31creeps into a team from South Florida,
09:33the Miami Dolphins playing in really cold temperatures against the Pittsburgh team.
09:36That's used to cold temperatures and maybe the ultimate cold weather quarterback in also Aaron Rogers,
09:42who was used to so many years there in green Bay.
09:44This line,
09:45Joe look ahead was three and a half.
09:46And now since three across the board totals,
09:48we talked about with Tom 43 and a half down to 41 and a half and 42 and a half,
09:53depending on where you're shopping.
09:54When I look at the Pittsburgh Steelers,
09:56nothing about that offense says explosiveness here for me,
09:59Joe.
09:59So I do lean towards the under 42 and a half,
10:03which is out there in the market.
10:04That's the way I'm looking forward to playing this game and maybe feeding off.
10:07What do you see in here on a side and total for yourself?
10:11Well,
10:11I mean,
10:12let's,
10:12let's not.
10:14Pat two on the back for winning a game under 45 degrees last week against the Jets.
10:20Cause let's be realistic here.
10:22That is one of the worst defenses that we have seen.
10:27So congratulations,
10:28but it was 37 degrees in East Rutherford when they played that game.
10:33That is hardly what he is going to be seeing tonight in Pittsburgh.
10:37Like you said,
10:38you would temperatures in the teens here.
10:41And I,
10:42you know,
10:42I don't know why we're sticking a fork in Aaron Rogers here,
10:45by the way,
10:45because Aaron Rogers,
10:46they came after him last week.
10:50Baltimore did.
10:51And what did he do?
10:52He took three passes for 121 yards deep and had seven completions of over 20 yards,
11:00Donnie,
11:00in that prior to that game.
11:03And he threw three against a pretty good Baltimore secondary.
11:07So the Steelers are beginning to stretch the field and Miami loves to blitz guys.
11:12I,
11:13you know,
11:13to me,
11:13this is a matchup that I got to see it from Miami.
11:16I think we're all waiting for the shoe to drop here.
11:19And we're just like,
11:21all right,
11:21dolphins.
11:22It's one thing to win in 37 degrees against the jets,
11:25but now on Monday night in prime time,
11:28which has never been good for McDaniel or Tua.
11:31I'm sorry.
11:32It's advantage Pittsburgh,
11:33whether they have what or not,
11:36that's still not a great offensive line for Miami.
11:39And they certainly have more than enough defensively to cause Tua issues and maybe rush them a little bit.
11:45I just don't see any way to go in this game,
11:48but Pittsburgh to get it done.
11:51Aaron Rogers passing prop here to 10 and a half to a tag of a low at one 92 and a half touchdown passes here for Aaron Rogers over one and a half.
11:58It's a minus one Oh two over one and a half touchdown passes for Tua.
12:01That is a plus one 54 price.
12:04If we go to the rushing market here,
12:05Devon H and has been sensational.
12:07Joe on the ground this year,
12:08he's 79 and a half,
12:10a couple of backs here for the Pittsburgh Steelers,
12:12Jalen Warren,
12:1251 and a half and Kenneth gain.
12:14Well,
12:1422 and a half at these spots here.
12:17Do we control,
12:17is this seem like a ground game to you?
12:19Because the weather temperatures here are really cold,
12:22but it's sometimes it's even worse.
12:24Joe,
12:24let's just say it's 17 degrees,
12:25but then you have 15 mile an hour winds.
12:28You should be able to throw the football.
12:29But the question is,
12:30do both of these teams want to throw the football?
12:32And I don't see,
12:33again,
12:33a lot of big time plays being made downfield tonight.
12:36So I look for some of these running backs to have success.
12:39Well,
12:40and especially gain well in the receiving game,
12:43because he is a top five guy out of the backfields here.
12:47A lot of dump offs.
12:50And,
12:50you know,
12:51that's pretty good against this Miami defense that doesn't cover screens
12:55very well.
12:56So gain wells receiving prop to me would be something I would absolutely
13:00focus in on here,
13:03but you know,
13:03they opened it up against Baltimore last week and finally started to push
13:07the ball down the field.
13:08It would not shock me with how much Miami likes the blitz that they take a
13:13few shots down the field as well here with Aaron Rogers.
13:16So that passing prop might be a little low for my taste.
13:20Touchdown props tonight on the board.
13:21Joe Devon,
13:22a minus one 20 price.
13:24He's the favorite Jalen Warren,
13:25not too far behind at minus one Oh five,
13:27but everybody else plus money.
13:28DK Metcalf,
13:29Kenneth Gainwell,
13:29who scored a lot of touchdowns lately.
13:31Jalen Waddle,
13:32plus two 10 Waller,
13:33plus two 50.
13:34And then those big tight ends there for the Steelers,
13:36Washington plus four 10,
13:38John who Smith plus four 50 Pratt Firemuth plus four 70.
13:41I'm telling you right now,
13:42Joe,
13:42you know what?
13:43Like I like to double up.
13:44How about if you tripled up on the tight ends here and you put one unit
13:48down on Washington Smith and Firemuth,
13:50you're getting over four to one.
13:51If one of those guys there,
13:53you're pay dirt,
13:54baby.
13:55I love it.
13:55Yeah.
13:56And,
13:56and listen,
13:57they don't cover them very well,
13:58Miami,
13:58this defense.
13:59So yeah,
14:00I,
14:00I like that light gain well a lot.
14:02I like the tight ends for sure.
14:05Yeah.
14:05It should be a fun way to play this game out.
14:06We'll talk about that more in our number two,
14:08but a cold weather game tonight for the Miami Dolphins,
14:11but it's just nice to have in December,
14:12both teams vying for playoff spots,
14:15a lot of meeting on the line.
14:16That's how we do business.
14:18Our number two is on the way next.
14:19It's not a right side.
14:19It's Joe and Eerie right here.
14:22Culture to one yesterday until they didn't win yesterday.
14:25Blake group,
14:25he kicked a 60 yard field goal,
14:27but the defense couldn't get off the field.
14:29And then that led to a field goal from the Seattle Seahawks coming away with a
14:32victory,
14:33but he was Phillip rivers talking about his first start back in the NFL.
14:37Hopefully,
14:38you know,
14:38certainly I think of my sons and those ball players,
14:40you know,
14:40that I'm in charge of at the school that they'll say like,
14:44crap,
14:45coach wasn't scared.
14:46You know what I mean?
14:46It's like,
14:47shoot.
14:47Sometimes you,
14:48there is doubt and it's real.
14:50And you,
14:52again,
14:53you can,
14:53you can,
14:53you can,
14:54the,
14:54the,
14:54the guaranteed safe bet is to,
14:56is to go home or to,
14:57or to not go for it.
14:58And the other one is shoot.
15:00Let's see what happens.
15:01You know?
15:01And so,
15:02yeah,
15:03I hope that in that sense,
15:05that it can,
15:05it can be a positive to,
15:06to some young boys,
15:08you know,
15:08or young people,
15:09it doesn't have to be boys,
15:09but.
15:11There you go.
15:12Phillip rivers excited there,
15:13Joe coming back to the NFL.
15:16Listen,
15:17it was,
15:17and it was one of the more entertaining games,
15:20close games.
15:21And the guy checked all the boxes.
15:23I mean,
15:24and it wasn't his fault.
15:25They lost.
15:25He did everything he could,
15:27everything.
15:27They asked for a guy off the couch five days later,
15:30starting in an NFL game.
15:33It's impressive.
15:34And you got to think,
15:35listen,
15:35it's they'll open up more and more.
15:38I'll get a little more used to it,
15:39but you know,
15:40the defense and the running game are going to have to carry it for a
15:43little while.
15:44Yes,
15:44they will.
15:45All right.
15:45Let's get to a topic here,
15:46Joe,
15:46that sometimes we don't understand why this topic comes about,
15:49but it does come about.
15:50We know exactly why it does.
15:51Do you know,
15:51the NFL was written to Congress to protest the rise of prediction markets
15:55like calcium poly market,
15:56but they love the sports betting market,
15:58but now the rise of the prediction market,
16:01which is basically a sports betting market with a little bit of a twist.
16:04They're just upset.
16:05They don't have the rights to poly marketing.
16:07Cal sheet.
16:07Do I read that?
16:08Correct.
16:09Yeah.
16:10Yeah.
16:10Money.
16:11Donnie just,
16:11just put all thing is that we're not making enough money from them,
16:15uh,
16:15for them to actually,
16:16uh,
16:17have anything to do.
16:18And they have nothing to do with the NFL.
16:20They're basically no different than,
16:22you know,
16:22any other book or any,
16:24we're just basically asking what does the market think is going to happen
16:27in a game.
16:28But since the NFL doesn't have any partnerships in place with them.
16:32Yeah.
16:32That's a,
16:33now they're concerned about it.
16:34Now they're concerned.
16:35By the way,
16:36I remember like you said some of these similar things when fantasy football
16:40really started to turn the page in like the late 1990s,
16:43the NFL is like,
16:44we're going to hold this back behind a paywall and nobody's going to be able
16:46to use our names and consent.
16:48And somebody goes,
16:49Hey,
16:49Hey,
16:49Hey,
16:49Hey,
16:49Hey,
16:49don't do this.
16:51Let fantasy football run wild.
16:52We'll be more in the ratings.
16:54We'll make more money that way.
16:55And cooler heads prevailed at that.
16:57We'll see if it does in this one,
16:58but can you imagine if no other fantasy outlet ESPN or anybody could use
17:01any names,
17:02unless you paid for those names through the NFL itself.
17:05Boy,
17:05my goodness.
17:06Sometimes they get so far over the skis.
17:07They just can't say,
17:08but I find that a funny,
17:10funny story here,
17:10Joe,
17:11but now you hear from us.
17:12We want to hear from you.
17:13Here's the market that we've been waiting for today.
17:16Fade the public.
17:16That's sports grid.
17:25Give us a follow on X.
17:27We ask these questions Monday through Friday.
17:29The question today,
17:30what is your best bet for tonight's Monday night football matchup between the
17:32Dolphins and the Steelers over under Dolphins or Steelers to me.
17:36I actually voted for the under 41 and a half.
17:38Joe,
17:38where'd you go?
17:40Yeah,
17:40I agree with the under Donnie.
17:42I think that's a,
17:43that's a solid play.
17:44I'd even be willing to look at a Dolphins team total under there.
17:49Only two and four on the road.
17:50They have not thrown for over 200 yards since October 30th.
17:55I don't know.
17:56They're going to do it in freezing temps tonight either.
17:59All right.
18:00Friday,
18:01Joe,
18:01we always know is payday.
18:02We went to,
18:03you know,
18:03on our action here.
18:05It's a Monday to start the week.
18:06We're going to go to,
18:06you know,
18:07here's bye,
18:07bye,
18:08bye.
18:15Hey,
18:15now,
18:16Joe,
18:16let's get the weekend started in style here on some bye,
18:18bye,
18:19bye.
18:19What you got?
18:20Yeah,
18:21I,
18:21I'm going to this Monday night game and listen,
18:24I'm here in South Florida and this house of cards that the Miami
18:29Dolphins has.
18:30I give them credit for not quitting on Mike McDaniel in the season,
18:34but you are not going back to back games in the Northeast and these
18:39temperatures and winning with two and this offense.
18:41It's one thing to beat the jets at MetLife.
18:45You are not going in even colder 10,
18:47by the way,
18:4841 degrees at kickoff last week against the jets.
18:51That will not be the case here tonight.
18:53And like I said,
18:54Dolphins are two and four on the road this year.
18:57They are not built to come from behind in any way,
19:00shape or form.
19:00And for a team that hasn't passed for two,
19:03more than 200 net yards since October 30th,
19:06do we think a 16 degree temperature night is going to help to it in the
19:10passing game?
19:11No,
19:12you know who won't be affected by it?
19:14Aaron Rogers,
19:15who just threw for two 84 last week against a better Ravens defense.
19:19I'll lay the three here with Tomlin.
19:21If it ain't broke,
19:22don't fix it.
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