Rule 5 Draft Guide: Names to Watch and Why They Matter

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00:00As the winter meetings heat up, let's look beyond the big free agent buzz and examine

00:05some intriguing names emerging for this week's Rule 5 draft, let's dive into the details.

00:11This Wednesday marks the Rule 5 draft, the winter meetings always generate headlines

00:15about major free agents.

00:17Kyle Tucker's destination is this year's hot topic, but beneath that surface buzz,

00:22conversations about potential Rule 5 picks are already beginning, now teams haven't fully

00:27dived into their final decisions on whether to pick someone in the major league phase

00:31or who that might be, but as everyone in baseball gathers in Orlando, certain names are already

00:36starting to circulate.

00:38First, a quick reminder on the eligibility rules.

00:41A player is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if he is not on his club's 40-man roster, and

00:46was either, signed at age 19 or older, and has played 4 or more professional seasons, or,

00:52signed at age 18 or younger, and has played 5 or more professional seasons.

00:57Based on early conversations with teams, agents, and the MLB pipeline staff, here's a preliminary

01:03list of names to keep an eye on.

01:05This list will be updated as we get closer to the draft.

01:08A player's ranking within his current team's top 30 prospects is noted in parentheses where

01:13relevant.

01:14Cameron Cawley, Texas Rangers, SSOF2B, number 17.

01:18Cawley brings two assets that often help a Rule 5 hitter stick on a big league roster,

01:23speed, and defensive versatility.

01:26He has a career stolen base success rate of nearly 87%, stealing 28 bags, while also

01:32hitting 15 homers last year at AA.

01:35The 2021 third-round pick has shown he can capably handle three, up the middle, defensive

01:41positions.

01:42Christian Serda C, Arizona Diamondbacks.

01:45Last year catcher Liam Hicks was taken by the Marlins and stuck on their roster.

01:49Could this be Serda's year?

01:50Catchers don't often make it through the Rule 5 process.

01:54But Serda did hit 18 homers in 93 AA games last year.

02:00Though playing his home games in hitter-friendly Amarillo helped, he offers some right-handed

02:04power, good walk rates, and solid defense behind the plate.

02:08Will Childers, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers, the son of big leaguer Matt Childers, and nephew of

02:15Jason Childers.

02:16Will was a non-drafted free agent find by the Brewers in 2023.

02:20He split the 2025 season between the top two minor league levels, saving 9 games, and striking

02:27out 9.5 batters per 9 innings.

02:31Though he also walked 5.6 per 9, he held hitters to a 176 average with a fastball that touched

02:3799 mark and an 84-86 mph breaking ball that can miss bats.

02:43Griff McGarry, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies.

02:47McGarry has shown premium stuff since his college days at Stanford, but command has always been

02:52his obstacle, his fastball sits around 94 mile and can reach the upper 90s with excellent

02:58extension, and his slider, according to Synergy Sports had a 52% whiff rate in 2025, the Phillies

03:05moved him back to a starting role this year to develop his full arsenal, and he did improve

03:10his command, posting a career-low walk rate, which was still 5.3 per 9 innings.

03:15Hayden Mullins, LHP, Boston Red Sox, No. 16.

03:19A year ago the White Sox used the No. 1 overall Rule 5 pick on Shane Smith, and he stayed in

03:25their rotation all year.

03:27Mullins might be the best candidate this year to get a similar chance to start.

03:31A 13.8% walk rate at AA might concern some, but he also struck out 30% of the batters he

03:37faced in 2025, generating swings and misses with a 91-94 mph fastball, and a low 80s slider

03:46with two-plane break, Sammy Natera Jr., LHP, Los Angeles Angels, No. 20.

03:53Natera employs a fastball-heavy approach, throwing his riding fastball 78.6% of the time overall.

03:59That fastball, and his slider, led to a strikeout rate of 13.4 per 9 innings in 2025, though it

04:07came with a high walk rate of 6.6 per 9.

04:09Teams might be particularly interested in his numbers against left-handed hitters last year,

04:15a 1.60 batting average against, and a 5.59 OPS allowed, R.J. Petit, RHP, Detroit Tigers, No. 30.

04:24The 6'8 Petit is coming off a season where he finished with a 2.44 ERA, a 1.06 whip, and 79

04:31strikeouts in 66-13 innings.

04:34He relies heavily on an 83-85 mph slider with late break, which gets swings and misses from

04:40both right- and left-handed hitters. He also features a mid-90s fastball, and an upper 80s

04:46changeup, Jose Rodriguez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers. Rodriguez might be worth a selection based on his

04:54changeup alone. He sells his 86-88 mph changeup effectively with a unique delivery, huge extension,

05:01and similar arm speed and release point to his 95-97 mph sinker. That changeup had a 67.3%

05:08whiff rate at AAA last year. His short slider also missed a lot of bats, though he paired it with a

05:14high walk rate. A limber Santa, RHP, Houston Astros, No. 13. A participant in the 2025 Futures game,

05:23Santa moved from starting to relieving midway through 2024. He finished the 2025 season with a

05:29minuscule 1.26 ERA and reached AAA at age 22. For his career, he has walked 6.0 batters per nine

05:37innings, but has also struck out 11.3 per nine. Teams could be intrigued by his full repertoire,

05:43which includes a mid-90s fastball, a feel for a changeup, and two breaking pitches. Tyler Stewart,

05:50RHP, Washington Nationals. Selecting Stewart would be a take-and-stash scenario. The 6'9 right-hander

05:57underwent Tommy John surgery this summer, so a team could let him rehab all season before deciding

06:02whether to keep him. His go-to pitch is a low-80s slider with two-plane break, and he complements it

06:07with a sinker, a changeup, and a cutter. He throws enough strikes to potentially start when healthy.

06:12Daniel Susak, C. Oakland Athletics, No. 11. A first-round pick in 2022,

06:19Susak thrived in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League in 2025,

06:24posting career highs in several offensive categories, including home runs, 18, and OPS,

06:31.132. His proximity to the majors and decent catch-and-throw skills could give him a chance

06:38to be one of the rare catchers to stick on a big-league roster via Rule 5. Ryan Watson, RHP,

06:46San Francisco Giants. Originally signed by the Baltimore Orioles as a non-drafted free agent in

06:51the pandemic-shortened 2020 draft. Watson reached AAA with the Orioles before being traded to the

06:56Giants in August 2024. The 6-foot-5 right-hander spent the 2025 season with AAA Sacramento, saving

07:04nine games and striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings. He did this against a low walk rate of

07:102.8 per nine, though he had a high hit rate of 10.3 per nine. He uses a fastball that can touch 97

07:16for some per H, and breaking stuff that generated a 40% miss rate in the PCL. So which of these

07:22potential Rule 5 picks do you think has the best chance to stick on a new MLB roster?

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