00:00Let's meet this field for the grade two Remsen, starting with day one starter, who comes off of a third place finish in the Nashua.
00:07He was 10 lengths behind that day, and he did finish well behind one of the rivals he's going to face in this race, drawn towards the outside in Probably Dreaming.
00:17Could you build a case for day one starter down on the inside?
00:21Not really, but I did want to mention that Doorknock and Mo Donegal exited this race as winners.
00:27Great point.
00:27Both were factors, to your point, in the Triple Crown in their respective years, 2023-2021.
00:33I think day one starter is very much up against it.
00:36Maybe along the rail has the tactical speed to be involved early, but I don't love the pedigree stretching out, and I just think it has something to prove from a class perspective.
00:45Number two, Paladin comes out of a race where he and Renegade were 1-2 in there, and we're going to watch the replay of this race.
00:53Paladin actually crossed the wire second there.
00:55A renegade got by him.
00:57There was a disqualification.
00:58They made a change.
01:00I mean, it was a tough change, Scott, because we can see, I think both of the horses ran well that day.
01:04Paladin's still on the lead in here, and he ends up getting put up via the DQ.
01:10What happens is, down towards the inside, Renegade gets down there, and then he's kind of drifting out, bumping a little bit.
01:17So, I mean, I saw it, and I do think there was a foul, but it was a tough DQ if you were someone who backed Renegade that day.
01:24Without question.
01:25I think we see worse.
01:26I think we've seen more, but, you know, understandable DQ.
01:30Paladin, $1.9 million.
01:32Not the most expensive Colt in this race, I will say that.
01:36But he's the one that's getting all the buzz.
01:38I think he's, you know, one of the favorites in the Derby futures early on.
01:42He ran huge.
01:43He's expected to run better as the distances go longer.
01:45Probably a little bit too short of a price for me to want to bet, though, in this spot.
01:49I did, I did.
01:49Comes off a fourth-place finish at Churchill Downs.
01:52He was in the street since on October the 26th.
01:55Kind of flattened out a little bit late, going a mile and a 16th.
01:57Has to deal with more distance in here.
01:59Can you build a case for him?
02:01A little bit.
02:01I don't know if he's good enough to win, but he was four wide into the first turn and kind of three wide throughout that race.
02:07And still finished fourth in his first try against winners.
02:09And the runner-up in that race, Universe, came back to run a pretty good second in the Kentucky Jockey Club to a really good-looking runner and further ado.
02:17So I don't think he's out of question here.
02:18He should get a pretty good ground-saving trip under Joel Rosario.
02:22Yeah, speed figures-wise, he got a decent number last time out, too.
02:26Grittiness will add the Blinkers.
02:28He's still a maiden, though.
02:29He hasn't crossed the wire first yet.
02:31His dam was a grade-two winner.
02:33And he did finish behind a horse named Cording.
02:36Cording is the number six.
02:37So he'll have to turn the tables on the common rival who beat him a couple stalls to the outside.
02:42Yeah, and that was only a four-horse field, as we'll talk about a little more with Cording.
02:45But I think the Blinkers going on feels a little bit of desperation.
02:49This horse hasn't gotten out of the gate well, hasn't run up to expectations.
02:53Pretty well-bred, but hasn't done it yet on the racetrack.
02:56Chambersville has been only on the turf in three starts.
03:00And when you look at the pedigree, the dam never tried the dirt.
03:03And just one of the direct siblings won on the dirt.
03:06A lot of turf in that pedigree.
03:08It feels like one of those situations where you want to kind of make sure you don't have a dirt horse.
03:13Understandably, that's where the big money is.
03:15You know, this is a horse, like you said, both sides, dirt, turf.
03:19You know, the first race, you might not go to the dirt right away because there isn't a race to go on the dirt at Saratoga or two turns.
03:25But we'll see what happens.
03:27The runner-up in that race on the turf, Happy Prince, is kind of a career maiden.
03:30So this is a big step up.
03:33You were talking about how a $1.9 million purchase was not the highest purchase in the field.
03:38How about this one?
03:39Cording is a $5 million purchase here.
03:44This one is a full brother to Clariere, the multiple grade one winner who earned $3.2 million.
03:50And the dam of this one, Cavorting, won the first couple starts of her career.
03:54She finished 8 of 13.
03:56She was a multiple grade one winner.
03:58So as far as pedigree is concerned, he's got a very, very big one.
04:02And we're watching him win on November the 9th over at Aqueduct.
04:06He was able to pretty much get to the lead, put away the other early speed,
04:10and he draws off finishing in front of Grittiness, who he'll face again in this race.
04:14Yeah, I mean, it's not often that the pedigrees in these families leads to future stars like it does.
04:20To me, those are a lot of horses you want to fade, but this family certainly hasn't been the case.
04:24Now, this horse, that race was a four-horse field we just watched when he made the lead at 1-20, maybe, 1-5-ish.
04:32But that makes me a little leery about this horse.
04:35He debuted a one-turn mile.
04:37I don't think he's been all that fast.
04:39To Todd in the mornings would be just my take.
04:41I have not talked to Todd or anyone related to the horse, but he just doesn't seem like he kind of made an easy lead
04:48and a little bit of a slow pace.
04:49I'm against this one, but $5 million might be me.
04:52I agree.
04:53I'm poking holes with him on the win end because I think he's going to get bet a little bit off of that big pedigree.
04:58So we got to make sure we get the right value there.
05:00We move to Igniter.
05:01What I liked about him in his most recent win, Scott, his second start, it was stretching out.
05:07He sat a pretty nice trip off the pace a little bit.
05:09I think he can sit and he doesn't have to get caught up in the battle early on on the lead.
05:13And he beat a horse named Rebel Instinct who came back to win a maiden special weight next out with an 85 buyer speed figure.
05:20It might have been a pretty strong race that Igniter won on September the 27th.
05:24Right.
05:24And the race before it, the runner-up, Oscar's Hope, was pretty good.
05:27And, you know, Richard Dutrow did not have a good summer at Saratoga.
05:31So for this one at 26 to run, we'll run third there.
05:33The bottom side of this pedigree, the dam was a $618,000 earner, very strong female.
05:40Volito is a sprinter, but I wouldn't be surprised if this one likes the extra distance.
05:44Moving to the next one, Concarneau, who comes in from Laurel Park.
05:47Just thought this horse seemed a little bit up against it based on the races that they're coming out of.
05:53Complete reach for this horse, 50 to 1 on the morning line.
05:56If he runs better than those odds, it'll be to my surprise.
06:00Yeah, it seems like the next few, though, are logical contenders.
06:03You can make a strong case for Renegade coming off of that race where he actually crossed the wire first but got DQ'd.
06:09I mean, I thought he showed a lot of ability.
06:12He was loaded.
06:13He was waiting for room.
06:14He got an opening.
06:15He pushed through up the challenge.
06:17And then when he did get the lead, he drifted out a little bit.
06:20But it was a good effort.
06:22And I thought it was kind of late to make a change sometimes, too.
06:25It was like right towards the wire.
06:26So I could have been either way with that DQ.
06:29Well, I'm hoping it helps his price a little bit, the DQ.
06:32But he comes out of a super fast Saratoga race there where he was just up against it.
06:37My one concern is he doesn't get out of the gate very well.
06:39If he fixes that, his pedigree suggests and everything about him suggests he can finish and he should get better as the distances get longer.
06:47Alboa was in the Bob Baffert barn earlier in his career, came over to Brittany Russell's barn on November the 8th in a sprint race on a muddy track.
06:55And he absolutely crushed the field, winning by five.
06:59Now it's going to be a little bit different because this is going a mile and an eighth at Aqueduct versus going short on a muddy track last time out.
07:06Yeah, the pedigree is there.
07:08I don't want the distance.
07:09But it's going to be a tall task based on what we've seen, speed to his inside, and a tough post in the mile and an eighth.
07:15These outside posts are no bargain.
07:18Talkin won his career debut.
07:20And then in his second start, he was the runner-up in the grade one Champagne.
07:23It was a pretty good effort for him, showing some nice late energy for second.
07:27Nobody was beating the winner that day.
07:29He finished in front of a horse named Universe.
07:31You had mentioned previously, he came back to run pretty well.
07:34What do you do with Talkin?
07:35There's really not a lot to knock with this horse.
07:38I would think they're going to try to get involved early with Kendrick Karmush in an outside post.
07:42But again, you know, I wouldn't want to take too short of a price with a post.
07:45The 11 hole could be very difficult for this one to overcome.
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