- 2 months ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. Plus the new storm names have been announced so let's take a look back at the 2024/25 season. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Honor Criswick.
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00:00Hello there and welcome to this week's Deep Dive. My name's Anna Krizwick, I'm a meteorologist and presenter here at the Met Office and today is Tuesday so of course it's Deep Dive Day.
00:10We bring you these videos every week so welcome back if you do catch these videos where we bring them out every Tuesday and if you're new, hello and welcome.
00:18Do make sure to subscribe to this channel if you like this video and of course give it a like, give it a comment.
00:23We do try and read through the comments not only after today but we try and bring some of them up on our Weather Studio Live which we do every Friday and of course we bring you these videos every week.
00:33We've also got our 10 day trend tomorrow with Alex Burkhill if you want a longer range forecast but for today we are going to be talking about the weather this week.
00:42It's still fairly changeable, of course it's the first week of meteorological autumn, there's a fair amount of rain on its way, some quite heavy showers and this morning we have issued a weather warning for rainfall.
00:53across southern parts of England and Wales with a chance we could see more as we head through the week.
00:58Not only that but we're going to be taking a look at some summer stats although we're not going to go too far into the summer stats,
01:04we're actually going to bring you a special video tomorrow with more of a deep dive into the summer stats themselves but nevertheless we are still going to talk about them
01:12because of course this summer has been record-breaking.
01:15Not only that but I do have a special guest because of course this week we have named our new storm names for this season
01:22so we're going to be taking a look back at the storm season just gone.
01:26So I've got a special guest Holly Clements who is the head of warnings and guidance here at the Met Office.
01:31So there's loads still that we can talk about.
01:34So let's get going then.
01:36Of course first week of meteorological autumn and it certainly feels like it.
01:40It's been a little cooler and fresher compared to the end of summer and already we've seen a decent amount of rainfall
01:47and it's all due to what's currently happening with our jet stream.
01:51So the fast-flowing ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere and what you'll notice is what it's doing.
01:56If I just zoom out a little bit it's a fairly wavy pattern just to the west of us out into the Atlantic
02:02and what this often means with a more wavy jet stream is that we get more areas of development areas that are actually called
02:09and they tend to pick up areas of low pressure which is what's happening currently at the moment
02:13as we head our way through Tuesday and into Wednesday they pick up these areas of low pressure
02:18where we do tend to see divergence aloft so air spreading apart aloft it's quickly replaced by air at the surface
02:25converging moving upwards and we tend to see these areas of low pressure deepen as a result.
02:32So they tend to bring wet and windy weather and that's exactly what we're going to see later tonight through into Wednesday
02:38and it's one of the reasons why the weather warning which I'll go into in a moment has been issued.
02:44So you can already see if I just turn the jet stream off for now you can already see an increase in the isobars here
02:49particularly across southern parts of the UK.
02:52Not only this but bringing in a frontal system which is going to bring some quite heavy downpours
02:57through Tuesday night through into the early hours of Wednesday.
03:01So this particularly across parts of the south and southwest where we'll start to see rainfall totals begin to increase
03:08but not only this but you can see the rain is going to be quite widespread across the country on Wednesday
03:12so unsettled for the middle part of the week.
03:17This will eventually drift its way through later as we head through into Wednesday
03:21and by Thursday behind it winds will tend to ease a little bit
03:25but notice we've just got this occlusion feature drifting across the south
03:29so it's probably going to be a day of sunny spells also showers
03:32these perhaps merging into longer spells of rain where we see this occluded feature
03:37across parts of the south.
03:39Now the rain is quite needed it's been very dry hot spring the rain is needed everywhere
03:44not only just showers dotted around but we've needed persistent outbreaks of rain to move through
03:48where there's really dry ground at the moment and still many areas in kind of drought conditions
03:53so we do need that rain to move through but if you're not a fan I know not everyone is
03:58and obviously it's the first week back from the summer holidays for many people
04:02well we do have high pressure building to the south on Friday and also Saturday
04:07so particularly southern parts of England and Wales once again mostly seeing quite a dry end of the week
04:12perhaps quite a dry beginning of the weekend too
04:14but once again just low pressure there just to the south of Iceland
04:17dragging in something towards the northwest of Scotland
04:20so Friday it's probably going to be quite a breezy day
04:23and then eventually we'll start to see outbreaks of rain drifted in from the northwest
04:26but that high pressure sticking around for a time which means mostly settled conditions Friday and Saturday
04:31across a large bulk of the country
04:33but of course waiting in the wings once again another area of low pressure
04:38so it's likely we'll start to see this drift in later Saturday
04:41early hours of Sunday just starting to push into the west there
04:45what I will say about Sunday is there's still quite a lot of uncertainty
04:48still quite a lot of model difference
04:50so do keep an eye on the forecast over the coming days
04:52but it does look like Friday, Saturday a bit more settled, a bit more sunshine around
04:57and then another area of low pressure starting to move through
05:00what's also interesting about Sunday is with this area of low pressure to the west
05:05moving in that anti-clockwise direction
05:08it brings in a bit more of a southerly flow towards the country
05:12particularly across parts of the south
05:13and actually what you'll notice is it does drag in a little bit of warmer air
05:17from continental Europe for a time
05:19so actually Sunday morning it's probably going to feel quite pleasant for many areas
05:22through much of the day if this area of low pressure is fairly slow moving
05:26particularly across east Anglia, parts of southeast England
05:29it's probably going to be a quite pleasant day with quite warm temperatures
05:32so seeing a hint that summer has returned
05:34but I'm afraid it's not lasting with that low pressure
05:36eventually moving its way further eastwards
05:40and bringing in more cloud and rain
05:41and into next week it looks like we'll see a fairly similar week
05:45with quite changeable conditions
05:46ridges of high pressure and then also frontal systems moving through
05:49bringing more outbreaks of rain
05:51so a changeable week is a good way to sum it up really
05:56but of course we do need to keep an eye on these areas of rain
06:00particularly the initial one that's moving through tonight
06:04here we do have a weather warning
06:06mainly across parts of Devon and Cornwall, parts of southwest England
06:09and also southern parts of Wales
06:11so there's a chance that we could start to see
06:12around 40 to 60 millimetres of rain between 6 to 9 hours
06:16so there is a chance that this could lead to some travel disruption
06:19possibly even some localised flooding
06:21so already it's starting to feel quite autumnal
06:23we're already seeing that change in our weather
06:25compared to quite the long dry hot summer that we had
06:29so let's take a look at those rainfall totals then
06:32as we move our way through
06:35because you'll see why we've issued that warning across parts of this southwest
06:41you can see already those orange, those yellows, those red colours starting to push through
06:46so widely yes we could probably see around 20 to 30 millimetres of rain
06:50it's going to be through the early hours of the morning as well as that system drifts eastward
06:53so if you are commuting to work on your way to school
06:56it is not going to be the most pleasant start to the day I'm afraid
07:00but notice localised areas there is a good chance that those rainfall totals are really starting to tot up
07:04even within a three hour period
07:06so quite heavy downpours of rain
07:08so like I said between 40 to 60 millimetres of rain is possible
07:12but of course that rain is not just across parts of the south
07:14it's set to be quite a wet and unsettled day across most of the country
07:18as that rain band starts to push through
07:20so even parts of northern England, parts of Scotland
07:23you'll start to catch some of those heavy downpours
07:25so keep an eye on the warning across our website, our social media channels
07:29we can tweak the warning when we get more information in
07:33and there's a chance we could see perhaps another one issued
07:35maybe not on Wednesday but further ahead into the week
07:39as we expect a showery regime after that
07:40so once again those rainfall totals really starting to tot up through the week
07:43so keep an eye out at the moment
07:45the only warning issued is that one across southwest England and southern parts of Wales
07:51it's valid from around midnight tonight up until 2pm tomorrow
07:54but as I say keep an eye out in case anything changes there
07:57but even once that area of rain has moved through
08:00notice these dotted areas of these higher rainfall totals
08:05so that's where it's tending to be quite showery
08:07that occlusion feature that I showed you earlier
08:09just pushing in across parts of the south
08:11so high ground in particular where we could see rainfall totals increase
08:15which is why there is a chance once again of another warning
08:18so it's going to be wet and it's also going to be windy
08:23let's take a look at this graphic that I took earlier
08:26this is from our UKV model
08:28so a slightly higher resolution compared to our global model
08:31it is in knots but I'll try and do some conversions for you if you prefer miles per hour
08:35but I've taken a screenshot from 9am on Wednesday
08:38so when many people are travelling on their way to work or school
08:42really notice those wind strengths across the southern half of the country
08:46so when that band starts to move through
08:48there is a good chance that we could see some coastal gale
08:50so very blustery around coasts particularly exposed coasts
08:54but even inland areas notice are pushing into the kind of 25 to 30
08:58possibly 35 knot mark
09:01so particularly if you're to the lee of any high ground here
09:03with that southwesterly flow
09:05you could potentially get some quite gusty conditions
09:07so it is not going to be the most pleasant of starts to the day
09:11it's going to be wet and it's going to be windy
09:13once again adding to the chance of some travel disruption
09:16and it's probably going to remain fairly breezy through much of the day
09:20it will be later on and as we head through into Thursday
09:22that those winds will start to decrease really
09:25so it's mainly through Wednesday morning
09:27but then it's still going to be quite blustery
09:29but the strongest of winds are going to be during the first part of the day
09:32and they'll spread their way eastwards along with that system
09:36that's moving through with bringing in us those heavy downpours
09:40so it's going to be wet
09:42it's going to be windy on Wednesday
09:44and then we've got quite changeable conditions for the rest of the week
09:47but as I've already mentioned
09:49by the time we reach Thursday
09:52it's going to be a day of sunny spells and showers
09:55so there will be some brighter weather ahead
09:57but once again these showers could turn quite heavy
10:00possibly even bringing us some hail and some thunder too
10:03so some quite heavy downpours expected
10:05but as I showed you earlier
10:08as that ridge of high pressure begins to build
10:10actually Friday looks like a fairly decent day
10:12now notice there are still the odd shower dotted about
10:15so if you're unlucky you might catch one
10:16but across much of England and Wales
10:18dry, settled and much lighter winds as well
10:21so feeling a little bit more pleasant
10:23but towards the northwest it is a different story
10:25we've got that other system that I showed you
10:27just the south of Iceland pushing another front
10:29so once again more cloud, rain, some quite strong gusty winds
10:32another chance of gales across the northwest of Scotland on Friday
10:35so a little bit of a different story here
10:37but you can see across the bulk of the country
10:39another fairly pleasant day
10:41and Saturday is fairly similar too
10:43so mostly dry, bright but a chance you could just catch the odd shower
10:47if you are unlucky
10:48keep your brolly close I would say
10:50and then from Sunday onwards
10:52we've of course got this rain starting to push its way through in from the west
10:56still some uncertainty there
10:57so as I say keep an eye on the forecast
10:59but things will eventually start to turn more unsettled from the west
11:02but as I mentioned across the southeast
11:04it's probably going to be a quite nice pleasant warm start to the day
11:07so depending on how quickly this system moves through
11:10depends how long you're going to see the best of the brighter weather
11:13so of course compared to the summer we've had
11:17it's going to be a very different feel
11:20we've had our summer statistics released
11:22they were released yesterday in fact
11:24and this summer has been record breaking
11:26the warmest summer on record
11:29beating the top spot of 2018
11:31so the average temperature was around 16.10 for summer as a whole
11:37beating our previous record in 2018
11:39where average temperatures were around 15.76 degrees celsius
11:43and actually in fact if you take a look at our press release that we issued yesterday
11:49a lot of Met Office studies are actually showing that a summer could be as hot or hotter than 2025
11:55it's now 70 times more likely
11:587-0 which is absolutely amazing
12:00compared to what it would be in a natural climate without human-made greenhouse gases
12:0517 times more likely
12:06that really struck me when I read that
12:09so it was obviously warmer than average across much of the country
12:13as I say average temperature was about 16.10 degrees
12:18but obviously it was quite persistent heat through much of the summer
12:21not only that but we had four heat waves which is just incredible
12:25so many do kind of refer back to our record of 1976
12:29a particularly warm summer
12:32but that was just over a course of a few weeks
12:34whereas this summer the kind of heat
12:37the warmth above average temperatures were quite prolonged
12:40and it was all due to high pressure sticking around
12:43we had quite blocked high pressure patterns through much of the summer
12:47we also had a marine heat wave which in turn can heat air temperature
12:51and it makes that heat a little bit more long lasting
12:54and in fact the UK heat is
12:57or the warmth of the UK temperatures are actually warming around
13:01a rate of 0.25 degrees celsius per decade
13:05which when you first hear that you think
13:07oh that doesn't sound like too much
13:09but we can already see how it's having an impact
13:11on our weather and climate here in the UK
13:13so summer 2025 is the warmest on record
13:19compared to summers
13:21now all the top five warmest summers have occurred since the year 2000
13:25obviously knocking 1976 out of the top five
13:29not only this but across a large portion of England and Wales
13:32it was particularly dry
13:33rainfall was below average
13:35it was around 84% of the average
13:37for the UK as a whole
13:39this follows our driest spring
13:41in just over 100 years in fact
13:43so summer too was also particularly dry
13:45but not everywhere
13:46western parts of Scotland
13:47north western parts of England
13:48were actually slightly wetter than average
13:50and this matches quite nicely
13:54with our sunshine totals as well
13:55where we saw around 110%
13:58of the average sunshine amount
14:01for the UK as a whole
14:02but once again where we saw those
14:03wetter than average conditions
14:05is where we saw either around average
14:07or slightly below average sunshine duration
14:11so a very interesting summer
14:14I'm sure one that we'll be referring to
14:16in the years to come
14:17I'm not going to delve too deeply
14:19into the summer stats
14:21because we'll have another video
14:23which will be released tomorrow
14:24that's Alex Burkhill
14:25and he's going to do another deep dive
14:27it almost is
14:28so you're essentially getting two deep dives this week
14:30really into the summer stats
14:32to really look at what happened and why
14:34so that will be coming out tomorrow
14:35along with this 10 day trend
14:36so it's a double whammy of Alex Burkhill tomorrow
14:39the reason I'm not going to go into it now
14:42is because obviously we've had something
14:44very exciting happen this week
14:46and we've had our new storm names released
14:48and I was just as mad as everyone else
14:51that H was Hannah and not Honour
14:53maybe next year
14:55make sure you get your votes in next year
14:56for Storm Honour okay
14:57but even though we didn't get Storm Honour
14:59we have got some really cool names on there
15:01personal favourite of mine is Fanula
15:04I quite like that one
15:05I also quite like Vubbo
15:06but I'm a little bit worried
15:08about us getting to W this year
15:11hopefully that doesn't happen
15:12but even so Storm Vubbo
15:13does sound pretty cool doesn't it
15:15so our new storm names have been released
15:17how exciting
15:18it'll be interesting to see
15:19when we introduce the first one
15:21Storm Amy
15:22so yes those were released yesterday
15:25but what I really wanted to talk to you about
15:27was actually the storm name
15:28that's just passed
15:29the storm season that's just passed
15:31sorry
15:32so obviously we had six storms
15:34with this previous storm season
15:37ending at Storm Florist
15:38quite a late storm in the season
15:40a summer storm on the 1st of August
15:42similar to the year prior
15:44where we had Storm Lillian
15:45so what I did
15:47I got in a special guest
15:48so we could take a look
15:49at the storm season
15:50that's just passed
15:51Hi Holly
15:52welcome to this week's Deep Dive
15:54do you just want to start off
15:55by introducing yourself
15:56and telling us a little bit
15:58about what you do here
15:59at the Met Office
15:59yeah of course
16:00yeah I'm Holly Clements
16:02so I'm head of the warnings
16:03and guidance area
16:04in the Met Office
16:05so that's the forecasting teams
16:08that send out the severe weather warnings
16:10the advisors that advise
16:12into emergency responders
16:13and also hazard centre
16:15so quite an interesting mix of teams
16:18and a lot of critical work this winter
16:20yeah and I think we're both similar
16:21in that we've only been doing our roles
16:23for just a few months
16:24so we've been thrown into the deep end
16:26talking about this season's storms
16:28if you haven't guessed already
16:29by what's on our screen
16:30so we've been naming storms
16:33since about 2015 haven't we
16:35did you just want to go into
16:35why we decided to actually give
16:37storm naming a try
16:39yeah of course
16:40so we've had storms obviously
16:42through our history in the archives
16:44isn't just the first time
16:45storms have happened since 2015
16:47but to help us message
16:49and communicate the impact of storms
16:53and what impact that might have
16:54to the public responders
16:56and to help better
16:58sort of communicate our message
17:00around the risk of that storm
17:01and what impact it might have on people
17:03we found that it really helps
17:06people connect to a name
17:08and also it helps kind of then look back
17:10and compare other events
17:12and contextualising storms
17:15which we'll be doing now
17:16and comparing them to past events
17:18helps think about oh yeah actually
17:19that storm did make an impact to me
17:21and what did I do then
17:22oh I might need to do that again
17:24so it really helps us message
17:25and help people prepare basically
17:28and take action
17:29for sure
17:29because there's definitely some storms
17:31this season
17:31which kind of stand out for me
17:34I mean Ashley being one of them
17:35just because it was the first
17:36it wasn't long until I started this job
17:39and then storm Ashley turned out of nowhere
17:40I remember Dara
17:41seeing all the red warnings come through
17:44so that was you know
17:45a really really busy time
17:47yeah
17:48so we're going to be talking about
17:49the storm season just gone
17:51so yes
17:52first storm
17:52as I've just mentioned
17:53that was storm Ashley
17:55here it is on the satellite image
17:57we can see a really impressive
17:59swirl of cloud
18:00as this system moved through
18:01into parts of the UK
18:03now this storm was interesting
18:05because it underwent what we call
18:07explosive cyclogenesis
18:09you might have even seen in the headlines
18:10sometimes these are referred to
18:11as weather bombs
18:12I'm going to try and explain
18:13what that is
18:14so it's essentially when an area of low pressure in the Atlantic
18:18it gets picked up by the jet stream
18:20so the jet stream is the fast flowing ribbon of air
18:22high up in the atmosphere
18:23and it moves towards what we call the left jet exit
18:26of our jet stream
18:28this is the cold side of the jet stream
18:30and what happens in this area
18:32is that we undergo something called quite rapid deepening
18:35so lots of air being lifted aloft very very quickly
18:38we see divergence aloft
18:40which is when air starts to spread aloft
18:43high up in the atmosphere
18:44and this means it needs to be replaced very quickly
18:47by winds at the surface
18:48so you've all of a sudden got rapid winds
18:51moving up in a column of the atmosphere
18:54and this is where these low pressure systems
18:56then start to undergo quite rapid deepening
18:58so pressure really lowers at the surface
19:01and it needs to lower by around 24 hectopascals
19:05or 24 millibars in around 24 hours
19:08for it technically to be explosive cyclogenesis
19:12and this is exactly what we saw with storm ashley
19:14in fact I've got some facts here
19:16so it went from 988 hectopascals
19:19to 952 in just 24 hours
19:22and we've actually got it here on the synoptic chart
19:25at this point this is on
19:26this is midday Saturday the 20th October
19:28it's drawn on there as 959
19:30and with lower pressure
19:32the lower the pressure
19:33essentially the stronger the storm the stronger the winds
19:35so really this storm
19:37it wasn't anything unusual
19:39the surface winds were kind of normal for this type of storm
19:42but it was really the wind gusts that we saw in higher sites
19:47absolutely
19:47you can see on the southern flank
19:49the highest winds generally around the southern part
19:51of the low pressure system
19:52and you've got the strongest winds coming in
19:54through sort of Northern Ireland, Northern England
19:55but particularly those peaks
19:57in the high ground of Scotland
19:58so the Caringorms for example
20:00that's 105 knots there
20:02I think that was one of the peak gusts that we saw
20:04and that's about 120 miles per hour
20:07so it wasn't a totally unusual storm
20:10it was the first one
20:11so quite memorable for many
20:13we did see some quite strong winds across the mountain sites
20:15but in terms of rainfall
20:17it was kind of typical for this type of storm moving through
20:21but the next one, Storm Burt
20:24we're going to talk about in a bit more detail
20:26that's this one down here
20:27because this was quite a significant storm wasn't it?
20:30Yeah, absolutely
20:31so we saw heavy rain through early end of September
20:35quite a lot of low pressure systems coming in
20:38wetting things up
20:39they weren't named storms
20:40we did send National Severe Weather Warnings out for those
20:43yellow and amber
20:44and then we worked through Storm Ashley
20:47which obviously clearly had some rain as well
20:49and then leading up into the Storm Burt situation
20:54we had, you can't really see here
20:56but we did have quite cold air ahead of that
20:58and we had snow events
21:02we sent snow warnings out during the week
21:04in the lead up to Storm Burt
21:06so we had snow across much of the UK actually
21:09and holding onto high ground areas
21:12so there were snow accumulations across the high ground
21:14of England, Northern England, Wales, Scotland
21:17and areas of Northern Ireland as well
21:19so that was sort of the run up into the Storm Burt
21:23so that's where we see this low pressure coming in now
21:26heavy rain on this occlusion
21:28and then quite intense rain along these cold fronts here
21:32so that's where you sometimes see quite heavy convection
21:36so we call it quite intense rain over short periods of time
21:39so I think some of the figures were 32 in the hour
21:43so over a six hour, three hour period
21:46we saw quite heavy rain on the back edge of that cold front
21:51and that was seen here across these
21:52that sort of pepped up these totals here
21:55so we had long duration rain
21:57but also quite intense bursts within the six hour period
22:00which does tend to kickstart river response
22:05and hydrological response in these areas
22:08so yeah we had a mix of snow, heavy strong winds, rain
22:15and snow melt as well
22:17so it's quite complicated
22:18but in here you can see the rainfall totals here
22:20over the event
22:21so over the storm
22:23so yeah here obviously 150 millimetres plus
22:27across Dartmoor, South Wales, Brecon Beacons
22:31and obviously parts of the Lake District
22:33and Snowdonia as well
22:36and yeah and this one
22:38absolutely so then through here
22:40this is like the November averages
22:41so this shows that over the long term average
22:45that these areas do stand out here in the southwestern Wales
22:48but also areas across Northamptonshire
22:50and North Oxfordshire as well
22:52and those areas are very high compared to their average
22:56and that's sort of what we saw then
22:58as a response to that in the rivers
23:00when we were working with our partners
23:02in the Environment Agency
23:03they were able to sort of forecast the impacts based on that
23:06and it was a tricky one to forecast wasn't it
23:09because as you say it was the snow initially
23:12then a storm coming through
23:13the added snow melt as well as the heavy rain
23:15the strong winds
23:16it really was a multi-hazard event wasn't it?
23:18Absolutely and maybe as a member of the public you would look at the warnings and be
23:22gosh this is a lot of what's going on here
23:24what do I what do I do
23:25how do I how do I act to this
23:27and this is really hard
23:28and it's one of the things my team
23:30one of the teams can consider
23:32is the forecasters issuing the warnings
23:34around how to make sure
23:36the warnings make sense to people
23:38and responders so that we can plan ahead
23:41and this is a very very busy period for the team
23:44in the operational team forecasting
23:46and also for the advisors working with emergency responders
23:50so yeah very tricky
23:52but you know we did send some forecasts out
23:55so we had yellow rain
23:57and we got like an amber snow and ice
23:59so we had a mixture of snow, ice, wind, rain and snow warnings there
24:04so yes a real mix
24:06multi-hazard is kind of what we call it
24:08because there's a lot of things going on
24:11so then how do we assess the impact of that
24:13and so through this we looked at
24:16you know we have here snow accumulations
24:19so we were forecasting quite detailed snow accumulations
24:22through these areas
24:23and this is some of the guidance we share internally
24:25with our teams
24:27you know 10 to 20 centimetres above 200 metres
24:30those sorts of things
24:31then we had rain forecast here as well
24:34so we also had 100 to 150 millimetres expected
24:38across past South Wales and Dartmoor
24:40and with that we also had snow melt
24:42and that's really complicated to forecast and model
24:46so the information that we gather
24:49from our flooding partners
24:51to inform our warnings
24:52because our warnings are impact based
24:54can be really complex and tricky
24:57so yeah we were forecasting rain
24:59and obviously a lot of this was part of the communication
25:02to the public and responders as well
25:04and obviously very windy
25:05so you know debris
25:06it was a heavy hazard
25:08absolutely yeah
25:10but we did send warnings out
25:12four to five days ahead
25:14but some of the impacts we saw
25:15were really
25:17yeah
25:18a lot of flooding across South Wales
25:20we had flooding
25:21flooding across the Neen
25:23and I think that was
25:24yeah sorry Northamptonshire
25:26so that was the area that we saw
25:28before that had very higher than average rainfall
25:30going into this
25:32sorry it had received higher than average rainfall
25:35going into this
25:36so there were a lot of impacts across rivers
25:39and also we had landslides in South Wales as well
25:41so other hazards to consider
25:43yeah
25:43and how that compounds into a bigger impact for those people
25:47yeah exactly
25:48I do remember this one
25:50obviously as a presenter
25:51you end up having to put all these weather warnings on your graphics
25:54it makes it a much busier morning
25:56but yes I do remember
25:57and it was
25:58it was
25:58yeah like you said
25:59really tricky to forecast
26:00with all sorts of different hazards associated with it
26:03and then
26:04not long after that
26:06I think it was a few days wasn't it
26:07we ended up having Storm Connell
26:09so once again
26:10not necessarily a very significant storm
26:12but it came
26:12so soon after
26:14where we saw
26:15so this is the synoptic pattern here
26:17we can just see it to the south
26:18this was named by the Dutch Met Service
26:20that's right
26:20yeah
26:20because it impacted
26:22more than Netherlands more
26:24yeah
26:24yeah
26:25and then
26:26once again
26:27further heavy outbreaks of rain
26:29in areas that had already seen quite a lot of rain
26:31from the two previous storms
26:33absolutely
26:34so yeah
26:36once again
26:36we'll go through each of these
26:37Storm Connell
26:38as I say
26:38not necessarily
26:39too impactful
26:40but after Burr
26:41after Ashley
26:42and we were seeing heavy rain
26:43in similar kind of areas
26:45I thought that one was worth a mention
26:47then after this one
26:49we had Storm Dara
26:50which I do remember this
26:52because I think I was
26:54I'd just become solo as a presenter
26:57and all of a sudden
26:57we had a name storm
26:58we had red warnings
27:00and from a presenter's point of view
27:02you end up having to do a lot more interviews
27:04and you want to make sure
27:06you've got the information correctly
27:07to make sure
27:08you guys at home
27:09are aware of the latest warnings
27:11and the potential impacts
27:12but what really struck me with this one
27:14obviously we had so many warnings out
27:16yellow amber
27:17and also red warning
27:18for parts of
27:19western parts of Wales
27:20for wind
27:21but not only this
27:22but we also had
27:23some severe weather
27:25in the shipping forecast
27:26so this mentions here
27:27violent storm force 11
27:29and what's interesting
27:31is we do normally do
27:32these storm reviews
27:34there was one
27:34for the previous storm season
27:36where it's
27:36Aidan and Will Lang
27:38talking about it
27:39and they
27:40I can't remember
27:41what storm it was for actually
27:41but there was
27:42another red warning
27:43in the shipping forecast
27:44I don't know if you remember
27:45but I think Aisha
27:46yeah Aisha
27:48yeah I think that was it
27:49and Will Lang actually said
27:50you know it's very uncommon
27:52it's quite rare actually
27:53to see this kind of warning
27:54in the shipping forecast
27:55but this season
27:56we had it twice
27:57we had it for Dara
27:58and also storm Eowyn
27:59which we'll come on to next
28:01so yeah
28:02this one was quite significant
28:04yeah very much so
28:06and particularly
28:07well the wind
28:08the rain element here
28:09you can see
28:10we were amber
28:10for the south Wales area
28:12that experienced
28:12quite sort of
28:14quite significant
28:14significant severe flooding
28:16from storm Burt
28:17so a lot of those areas
28:18are still sensitive
28:19to the rain
28:20so we you know
28:21we include that information
28:22in the warnings that we give
28:23but for the wind
28:25yes very much
28:26it was a major incident
28:28declared across west
28:29and central Wales
28:30during this
28:32it's a lot of trees down
28:33and there was a real risk
28:34risk to life
28:35and also infrastructure
28:37in that area
28:38the ability to them
28:39to respond to emergencies
28:40was really at risk
28:43and this was the first time
28:45an emergency alert
28:47was sent for weather
28:48actually
28:49for the season
28:50so we've been working
28:51you know
28:52we work with the government
28:53around reviewing
28:53and how we message
28:55for severe weather
28:56and so the emergency alert
28:58was used then
28:59and I actually
29:00I remember getting
29:01I was in South Devon
29:02but I remember getting
29:03because it just about
29:03clipped north Devon
29:05anyway
29:05some people here got them
29:06some people didn't
29:07and they're still ironing out
29:08how it works
29:09but you know
29:11very much
29:11taking it seriously
29:12because when there's
29:14a risk to life
29:14that is what it means
29:16and it was quite sobering
29:17coming back into work
29:18the next day
29:19or seeing a lot
29:19of the impacts
29:20at home
29:20on the news
29:21so yeah
29:22very much
29:23very much
29:24a significant
29:24major incident
29:25for Wales
29:26yeah
29:27once again
29:28I mean
29:28with the wind
29:29and rain
29:30we had
29:32yeah
29:33it was Berry Head
29:34in Devon
29:35that was
29:3583 knots
29:36was one of the
29:37max gusts
29:37so that's around
29:3896 miles per hour
29:39and that ended up
29:40being the highest
29:41December gust
29:42on record
29:42and that broke
29:43a 30 year record
29:44so not typical
29:47for this kind of storm
29:48after breaking
29:48a 30 year record
29:49but yeah
29:50really significant
29:50impacts in parts
29:51of the southwest
29:52also areas of Wales
29:53getting around 80
29:5481
29:55particularly northwest
29:56Wales
29:57knots
29:58which once again
29:59is kind of
30:00around 92 miles
30:01per hour
30:01but it was even
30:02inland areas
30:03we had some areas
30:04of Cornwall
30:05areas of sunset
30:06sunset
30:07Somerset
30:07getting about
30:0862 knots
30:10which once again
30:11I think that's
30:11around there
30:12yeah you've got
30:12this quite widely
30:13through the central area
30:14yeah even across
30:16kind of the central
30:16southwest
30:16so yeah
30:18really really strong
30:19strong gusts
30:21associated with that
30:22not sure did I have
30:23anything
30:24yeah and rainfall
30:25once again
30:25and similar
30:26it's kind of
30:26being picked up
30:27in those similar areas
30:28already saturated ground
30:29and further heavy
30:31outbreaks of rain
30:31and strong winds
30:32absolutely
30:32yeah a few deaths
30:34associated with this storm
30:36there was 2.3 million
30:38power outages
30:39so really impactful
30:40storm
30:40after already having
30:42you know
30:43some impactful storms
30:44before that
30:44okay
30:47then the next one
30:48I'm sure quite a few
30:49people remember
30:50storm Eowyn
30:51which I think is here
30:53yeah
30:54so once again
30:55you know
30:56area of low pressure
30:56here it's
30:57marked on as
30:58941 hectopascal
30:59so a really deep
31:00area of low pressure
31:01just situated to the
31:02northwest
31:02bringing in once again
31:04some strong winds
31:05heavy outbreaks of rain
31:06yeah
31:07anything significant
31:09one of the most
31:10yeah one of the most
31:11powerful storms
31:12we've had in the UK
31:13yeah
31:13so yeah
31:15very much so
31:15lots of hazardous
31:16weather just beforehand
31:17as well
31:18yeah so we ran into
31:19I mean January
31:20over the Christmas period
31:22it was quite
31:22I don't know where you were
31:23but it was quite settled
31:24where I was working
31:24I was working
31:25I was quite settled
31:27to the first week
31:28of Christmas holidays
31:29and then but during
31:31the new year period
31:32it was was actually
31:33very busy operationally
31:34for warnings being issued
31:36so some of you might
31:37be largely across
31:39England and Wales
31:39actually
31:40but some of you
31:42might have seen
31:43like warnings pop up
31:44on your app
31:45or on the website
31:46or messaged about things
31:47and there was a lot
31:48of rain
31:49similar
31:50obviously not storm
31:51but but similar
31:52kind of multi-hazard
31:53with snow
31:54mixed with rain
31:55and snow melt
31:56not wind so much
31:57hence we didn't have
31:58any named storms
31:58during the new year period
31:59and running up
32:00into early January
32:01but you know
32:03it was very busy
32:04operationally
32:05and there were
32:05some significant
32:06flood events
32:07across sort of
32:08central England
32:09east of England
32:10and the northwest
32:12of England as well
32:13so that sort of
32:15like wetting up period
32:16and just showing
32:17the complexity
32:17of sometimes
32:18when we're sending
32:19warnings out
32:20when we've got
32:20you know snow
32:21mixed with rain
32:22how complex that could be
32:24but of course
32:25this is you know
32:25a really significant
32:26storm
32:27one of the most powerful
32:28in the UK
32:28I think for Northern Ireland
32:30it was the most powerful
32:31since the Boxing Day storm
32:32in 1988
32:32yeah
32:33yeah so
32:35yeah
32:35very like
32:36like explosive deepening
32:38as you just explained
32:39from Storm Ashley
32:40was happening here as well
32:41and that often happens
32:42for the UK
32:43because we're at the end
32:44of the jet stream
32:45across here in the Atlantic
32:46so we often see
32:47that where the jet stream
32:48sort of slows here
32:49it has like
32:50we call like an exit point
32:51if you're into
32:52looking at where jet streams
32:53are in the atmosphere
32:54and that's why
32:56we often get
32:56the developmental
32:57you've got low pressures
32:59out here
33:00but they will develop
33:00and deepen
33:01as they come into the UK
33:02and then tend to decline
33:03as they go across
33:04into the sort of
33:05the Norway area
33:05but yeah
33:06this is an example
33:07of that here
33:08very very strong winds
33:09generally
33:11and once again
33:12multiple warnings
33:13associated with this
33:14yellow amber
33:15and also red warnings
33:16across Northern Ireland
33:17parts of Scotland
33:18and similar
33:19to what we saw earlier
33:21also hurricane force
33:23winds
33:24red warnings
33:25in the shipping forecast
33:26absolutely
33:27hurricane force
33:28and I think
33:28phenomenal sea state
33:29you've got there as well
33:30so this
33:31quite a lot of the information
33:33on this was around
33:33the coastal areas
33:34the Irish Sea
33:36and the impact that had
33:38on the coastal side
33:39of things as well
33:40so yes strong winds
33:41but also if you're
33:42in these coastal areas
33:43particularly sort of
33:45Ireland as well actually
33:46you can see here
33:48some of the advice
33:48that's given in the warnings
33:49around large waves
33:50beach material being thrown
33:52and you know
33:54phenomenal sea state
33:55so yeah
33:55not to go and watch
33:57in the sea
33:58at the beach
33:59you know it's very tempting
34:00but really you know
34:01there was a risk to life
34:02for this one as well
34:04and another emergency alert
34:06was sent for Storm Eowyn
34:07that was the second
34:09emergency alert
34:10that was sent for weather
34:11yeah red warnings
34:12are so important
34:13you know danger to life
34:14I mean I do remember
34:16advising people you know
34:17not to kind of go out
34:18and take a look
34:19but yeah some really
34:21significant wind gusts
34:23we had through there
34:23and not only this
34:25but because we had
34:26all the kind of
34:27hazardous weather before
34:28and then the storm
34:30with previous storms
34:31just before it
34:32it's kind of
34:33looks like we're
34:34starting to see
34:35that really growing risk
34:36of multiple storms
34:37one after the other
34:37along with our kind of
34:39changing climate
34:40but yeah we can really
34:41see those strong
34:41wind gusts particularly
34:43across the kind of
34:43northwest of the country
34:44here and oh yes
34:46we wanted to get
34:47oh no we were going
34:48to change this weren't
34:49we and we forgot
34:50this is a stronger wind
34:51this is 80 knots
34:52yeah but if we had
34:53slightly we
34:54we can take a look
34:56at that later
34:56but if we had a slightly
34:58lower wind gusts value
34:59it was around 70
35:00knots this was actually
35:01quite significant
35:02storm eowen was up
35:03here yeah it's more
35:05than the great storm
35:06and obviously lower
35:07than boxing day storm
35:08which is what I said
35:09there yeah
35:10but yeah for 70
35:11for widely 70 knots
35:13or just above 70 knots
35:14storm eowen featured
35:16really significantly
35:17up in the up in the
35:18ranks yeah the ranks
35:19of the great of the
35:20storms
35:20of the great storms
35:21yeah yeah
35:22and then of course
35:24we had storm floris
35:26and what was
35:26here we are we've got
35:27a satellite image
35:28once again this
35:29satellite image
35:30you can see the
35:30swirl of cloud there
35:31just situated to the
35:32northeast of scotland
35:33and coming through
35:33across central and
35:34southeast in england
35:35but this was
35:37relatively unusual
35:38because it was quite
35:39late in the season
35:39a summer storm
35:40but it's not totally
35:41uncommon we had one
35:42the year prior with
35:43storm lillian i think
35:44it was a similar
35:45time of year
35:46but it kind of
35:47catches people off
35:48guard still even
35:49though it's a chance
35:49obviously it's the
35:50summer holidays
35:51more people are out
35:52and about so they
35:52tend to be not quite
35:54as strong but
35:54sometimes more
35:55impactful
35:55yeah absolutely
35:56and you know we
35:57had seen quite a
35:58quiet spell
35:59I suppose if you
36:00think storm wise
36:01and rain we've had
36:02quite a dry
36:03had quite a dry
36:03settled spring and
36:04early summer it's
36:05been quite nice
36:06yeah and yeah
36:07absolutely you kind
36:08of think oh gosh
36:09storms are happening
36:10again now here we
36:11are so yeah very
36:12much it can be more
36:13impactful in lots of
36:14ways because you've got
36:15a lot more people out
36:16and about you know
36:17you plan your
36:18holidays camping
36:19towing your caravan
36:20on the road you
36:21know those sorts of
36:22things can become very
36:23risky there's a lot
36:23more people traveling
36:24and more vulnerable
36:26sort of mobile
36:27populations campsites
36:29caravan sites those
36:30sorts of things so
36:31yeah the impact of
36:32that is really
36:34important and part
36:35of what we consider
36:36when we issue warnings
36:37and think about storm
36:38naming particularly
36:39you know this is a
36:40really good example
36:41of why that's so
36:41important we for the
36:44Friday ahead of the
36:44weekend the the
36:47forecasting team with
36:48the advisors you know
36:50thought it was best to
36:51to name this storm spoke
36:53to you know the
36:54Netherlands and met
36:55Erin in Ireland as
36:56well and felt like
36:57significant enough to
36:59send to name this
37:01storm storm florist and
37:02we sent yellow wind
37:03warnings out at that
37:04point because of the
37:06confidence in the really
37:09strong winds and then
37:11on the Sunday going
37:13into this we then did
37:14issue an amber yeah and
37:16then you know this
37:17happened on the Monday
37:17and Tuesday yeah and
37:18even you know before
37:19the storm naming I
37:20remember I spoke about
37:21on a deep dive in the
37:22Tuesday before we
37:23named it an area of
37:24low pressure but at
37:25the moment I listened
37:26back to that oh yeah
37:27oh no at least one
37:29person did that but we
37:30weren't really sure there
37:31was still quite a lot of
37:32model variability but
37:33then I remember I think
37:34it was Alex the next
37:35day talking about it in
37:35his 10 day trend and
37:36then that was Tuesday
37:37and Wednesday and by
37:37the Friday we had
37:38named it so quite quite
37:39well forecast and we
37:40were quite alert that
37:41something may
37:42potentially happen
37:42quite early on yeah
37:43very much so you know
37:44we forecast into the
37:45medium range and
37:46outlook 24 7 you know
37:48we have forecasters
37:48doing that all the time
37:49and it's just where it
37:50becomes significant
37:51enough and have those
37:52conversations around
37:53actually and then you
37:55know the confidence
37:56obviously builds as you
37:57get more models coming
37:59out with that solution
38:00looking at different
38:01solutions from different
38:02model centres as well
38:03so yeah exactly yeah
38:04but yes it was it was
38:06quite a severe storm it
38:06was one of the most
38:07severe summer wind
38:08storms on record we got
38:10to I think I've got some
38:11wind gusts here we did
38:12get to 82 miles per
38:13hour in Scotland and
38:15that was the August
38:16record it was a mountain
38:17oh no mountain summits
38:19did start to see around
38:20a hundred miles an hour
38:21so it's probably
38:21you've got 108
38:22108 there not so
38:24yeah Scotland the
38:25Scottish August record
38:26was actually broken
38:27so once again those
38:30mountain sites really
38:31picking up the strongest
38:32winds across Scotland
38:33at times Northern
38:34Ireland as well
38:35particularly in the
38:36northwest yeah we did
38:37have a few kind of
38:38close reaches to some
38:39records for Northern
38:40Ireland during that
38:41period and just to
38:43finish off it's
38:44sometimes kind of
38:45compared well we've
38:46recently compared storm
38:48florists we had storm
38:49Hector didn't we
38:50Hector yeah
38:51and which one was
38:52this this was July
38:531988 yeah yeah so
38:56obviously before
38:57yeah we started storm
38:58naming you can see how
38:59far we've come with
39:00our chart drawing
39:01chart drawing this
39:02is this is great this
39:03is how we trained
39:04yeah I know yeah get
39:05your coloured pens out
39:06yeah so yeah so this
39:09is 1988 July 25th
39:10July 1988 you've got
39:11storm Hector here in
39:132018 so that was one
39:15of the storms you can
39:16see the low pressures
39:16you know nine nine
39:18seven seven nine
39:18seven one I think
39:20nine seven six so not
39:22as deep as some of
39:23the low pressures you
39:24see with cyclogenic
39:25like explosive
39:26cyclogenesis we see
39:27from storm air in the
39:28storm Dara but still
39:30very significant in
39:31terms of the impacts
39:33because it's the
39:33summer but yeah this
39:35is a pattern we see
39:36summer storms aren't
39:38that uncommon yeah
39:38you know just
39:40by surprise
39:41August when the
39:41school holidays start
39:42it tends to be quite
39:44bad weather but at
39:46the moment we've
39:47been quite lucky
39:47earlier on in the
39:48summer haven't we
39:49so yes so this is an
39:51example here of the
39:52type of storms we do
39:53get in the summer so
39:54yeah very much and
39:56obviously last year we
39:57had storm Lillian and
39:58we had more storms
39:58generally but yeah so
40:01yeah something to note
40:02definitely thank you
40:03a big thank you to
40:05Holly once again for
40:06joining us on this
40:07week's deep dive it's
40:08always really interesting
40:09to take a look back at
40:10the weather that we
40:11forecasted particularly
40:12when we're taking a
40:13look at storms and it
40:14will be super
40:14interesting to see how
40:16many storms we get
40:17through this year now
40:19of course it wasn't
40:19just the storm names it
40:20was also the summer
40:21stats the press release
40:23is issued on our
40:24website so if you want
40:25to delve deeper
40:26yourself into the
40:27summer just gone do
40:29take a look at that
40:29but as I've already
40:30mentioned there is
40:31going to be another
40:31video tomorrow on
40:33YouTube with Alex
40:33Birkhill taking a
40:34look at why this
40:35summer ended up being
40:36so record-breaking and
40:38if you want a bit more
40:39of a look ahead into
40:40the weather this week
40:42particularly across the
40:43next 10 days where we've
40:44got the 10 day trend
40:45with Alex Birkhill
40:46tomorrow as well
40:47and it doesn't end
40:49there we've also got
40:50our weather studio live
40:51this Friday so do make
40:52sure if you do have
40:53any comments or
40:54questions leave them
40:55in the comments box
40:56below and we'll take a
40:57look at those for this
40:58week's weather studio
40:59live it's not actually
41:00going to be me sorry to
41:01disappoint you it's
41:02going to be Alex
41:03Deacon and Aidan back
41:04this week taking you
41:05through all the
41:06questions that you might
41:08have for them so
41:09thanks again for
41:09joining me this week
41:10make sure you have
41:11subscribed and like this
41:12video and I'll see you
41:13again very soon
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