- 2 days ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond 07/10/2025 – With high pressure through much of this week we look at if there will be cloud, sunshine or fog. Also a look back at Storm Amy and tonight’s Storm Amy. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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00:00Storm Amy's gone, and instead this week there's a lot of high pressure around, but with that, yes, there will be some rain at times, and also quite a bit of cloud, and maybe even a bit of fog at times too, which could be locally thick.
00:13Hello, yes, I'm Alex Burkle, presenter and meteorologist. Thank you for joining me for this week's Deep Dive, and as always, I'm coming to you from our headquarters here in Exeter.
00:23And also, as always, if you have any comments, do leave them. If there's anything that you've enjoyed that I talk about today, let me know. If there's anything that you haven't liked, well, keep that to yourself.
00:32If you have any questions that you'd maybe like me to answer in the Weather Studio Live this Friday when I'll be back with Anna, well, put those in the comments, and we'll be looking at them then.
00:42Also, hit the like button, hit the share button, and make sure you also subscribe so you never miss one of these great videos.
00:49But let's get going, because whilst the weather this week is nowhere near as unsettled, as impactful as what we saw, particularly during the back end of last week, there is still some interesting bits that I want to talk about.
01:02But before we get on to that, let's have a little look back at Storm Amy, because it was quite a feature.
01:08Now, I have the satellite and radar imagery behind me here, and I've gone a bit too far, but you can see the swirl of cloud from Storm Amy that swept through as we went through Friday and continued to bring strong winds, some heavy, thundery rain at times across much of the UK as we went through Saturday as well.
01:26Now, in case you weren't aware, it was a particularly deep air of low pressure, especially for the time of year. I'll come on to that in a second.
01:34But yes, what did we get? Well, in the centre of the low itself, the pressure fell to 944 hectopascals, or millibars, whichever you fancy using.
01:44And we had a reading of 947.9 hectopascals at Baltasound in northern Scotland, which is a new October record, so 947.9.
01:55So no wonder that we had very strong winds, and very strong winds we had indeed.
02:00McGilligan in Northern Ireland had a gust of 92 miles per hour. That's a new Northern Ireland record for October.
02:06And actually, lots of stations across the country, across Scotland in particular, and also parts of Northern Ireland, even parts of Northern England, Cumbria, for example.
02:16Shap, Spade, Adam, recording their strongest October gusts on record. And lots of these sites go back decades. For example, Lossymouth goes back 49 years.
02:27So it was a remarkably windy October day. Also worth bearing in mind, Tyree in northern Scotland had a gust of 96 miles per hour.
02:38So very windy indeed. And then the power cut out. And so it's possible, to be honest, it's quite likely, that gusts were even stronger than 96 miles per hour there.
02:49But at the moment, we don't have the data to back that up. Hopefully, we get the internet back there later on this evening, maybe early tomorrow.
02:58And the data should be stored. So it's possible tomorrow or maybe later today, we announced that the winds were even stronger than 96 miles per hour at an official site.
03:09So that's definitely something to keep an eye on. But I wanted to show just how many stations broke their October record for the strongest gust.
03:17Now, I mentioned that for October, it was a particularly strong feature.
03:21And this is a difficult one to evaluate and look into. But fortunately, my colleagues at NCIC and one of the chiefs, Dan Holley, have looked into it partly for me.
03:32And they've created this chart. And what it shows is instances where we've had gusts in excess of 60 knots, 69 miles per hour since 1973, recorded somewhere in the UK.
03:43And what you can see as we go through the year, the time of the year really plays a pivotal role in how common, how frequent it is that we see these events happening.
03:54So during the winter months, January, February, it's relatively common. I mean, we have a higher frequency.
04:00And then as we go down or higher number of sites that have recorded those kind of gusts, then as we go through into the summer months and it becomes much, much less common, as you would expect.
04:13But then, you know, florists stands out as a recent, very strong, unseasonable storm.
04:18And then, Amy, in itself, when you compare it to, you know, other years, other years and other months during deeper into autumn and into winter, even for like later October, it doesn't stand out that much.
04:33But it's kind of an outlier when it comes to how early it was in the month.
04:37So it was a severe storm. I mean, I've just told you that we had some October site records, Northern Ireland's October record as well,
04:45when it came to strongest gusts was broken. So it was a very windy event and it later led to widespread impacts.
04:53But especially for how early in October it came and how early in autumn, it was a very strong feature.
04:59We have had stronger ones in the past, slightly earlier on in the year, Ali, for example, in 2018.
05:04But nonetheless, it was a little unusual, kind of a one in a year event.
05:10And for it to happen in October, early October is a little unusual.
05:16And, well, nature is a wonderful thing, isn't it?
05:19Because you can kind of see the trend in terms of when we're more likely to see these stronger gusts of 60 knots plus.
05:26And it kind of ties in with when trees are losing their leaf.
05:29And that's quite important. I mean, evolution exists.
05:32And you could argue probably I'm not an expert on this one,
05:35but the trees have probably developed a way to protect themselves from the stormy winter, late autumn, winter months where we get those strong winds.
05:44By losing their leaves, they're then less susceptible to being blown over and to damage.
05:50Obviously, not every tree loses its leaves, but lots of them do.
05:53And so it's quite interesting that you see this trend.
05:57It's not a huge surprise, but it's interesting that you see this trend.
06:00And I think it does tie in quite nicely with the rate at which trees lose their leaves as well.
06:06So that's just a recap on Storm Amy.
06:08It brought some heavy rain, brought some unusually strong winds as for how early on in the autumn.
06:13And so no wonder that we saw some damage.
06:16But let's go on.
06:17Let's look ahead at the forecast through the next few days and delve into the detail behind the high pressure that's coming through.
06:24So we do have high pressure across the south.
06:26We also currently have a front making its way southwards across the UK.
06:30The jet stream, which I have on at the moment, very different to this time last week.
06:34Last week, it was piling across the Atlantic towards us and a pretty strong one at that.
06:40Currently, it's much weaker and it's a bit further north.
06:42And so no wonder that everything's a bit quieter, a bit more settled.
06:46Not totally settled, but a bit more settled.
06:49Worth highlighting, actually, we did have some warm air around, particularly on Monday.
06:53Some stations in Scotland had their warmest October day for many years.
06:59WIC, for example, I think had its warmest October day on record.
07:03And we saw temperatures in the low 20s across many places.
07:07So that was pretty warm for early October.
07:09It's not going to be quite that warm generally as we go through this week.
07:13But nonetheless, we have a front pushing its way southwards.
07:15I'll get rid of the jet stream now.
07:17And that does have some rain on it, but nothing particularly heavy.
07:21And then as that front pushes its way southwards, yes, the high that's in the south at the moment kind of eases and clears away.
07:28But then we have another area of high pressure that's building across western parts.
07:33And this is going to be the dominating feature as we go through the back end of this week and into the weekend.
07:38And it looks like it's going to last with us for quite a while.
07:42So high pressure building.
07:43I'll just pause it there as we go through.
07:45Where's this?
07:45Late Wednesday.
07:46So the front that's pushing southwards at the moment.
07:48That's going to take a little while to clear across southern parts through Wednesday.
07:52So it's going to bring some clouds, something a bit damp perhaps across far southern parts, but not a huge amount of rain.
07:58Further north, the further you are away from the high, a bit blustery, maybe windy at times, and there will be some rain pushing in.
08:06Maybe a little bit heavy for some places, some higher ground in Scotland, but nothing particularly, nothing especially impactful.
08:13I think the bigger talking point generally is going to be this area of high pressure that's pushing through.
08:18Now, we often talk about high pressure, and when you get high pressure, the air is sinking.
08:22And so you often get lots of sunny skies, not a huge amount of cloud.
08:26Not quite what's going to happen this time.
08:29I think it's actually going to be quite cloudy at times as we go through this week.
08:33As we've gone further ahead Thursday, there's another front toppling over the north of it, more rain.
08:37But even within the front, I should probably put cloud on at this point.
08:41That would help.
08:42You can see it looks like quite a murky, cloudy high.
08:45Now, towards the centre of the high itself, there will probably be some clear breaks, so some sunshine by day, some clear skies by night.
08:53But particularly around the outskirts of the high, it's looking quite cloudy, and it could be quite murky.
09:00And why is this?
09:01Well, if we track back and look at what's happened.
09:04So we've had the front that's going through at the moment.
09:06Then there are other fronts, like I've just highlighted, nearby towards the north of the UK.
09:11And if we track back the, or look at the track of the air that's coming towards us, yes, we have kind of polar maritime air.
09:19But the original source is kind of coming more from the Atlantic.
09:22It's not your traditional polar maritime air.
09:24So it's not that clear, not that clear cut in as much as there's going to be quite a lot of moisture within it.
09:31And that moisture is going to get trapped under that high.
09:34And with the light winds, it's going to be quite stagnant.
09:38And so that's why we're going to get some cloud sticking around through the next few days.
09:44And also then, worth bearing in mind, I highlighted there will be some clear breaks.
09:47I'll come on to this in a bit more detail in a second.
09:50But there will be some clear breaks around.
09:51And so then overnight, with that moisture, and we get some clear skies at times, calm winds, temperatures taking a bit of a dip,
10:00we're going to get some fog, locally dense fog, at times through this week.
10:03So watch out for that as well.
10:05But let's just keep going and run through the rest of this week.
10:09High pressure then firmly in control for much of the country.
10:12Still some spots of rain.
10:13So yes, it'll be cloudy at times.
10:14Yes, a bit damp at times.
10:16Always most likely towards northern areas.
10:18And that's where the winds will be a bit stronger.
10:20Front's trying to topple in.
10:21But much of the country having a pretty calm setup, albeit not water or blue skies or anything like that.
10:28And we do need to cater for the fact that there could be a bit of fog at times.
10:32Now, I'll pause it here on Saturday because let's put our temperature on.
10:36Let's get rid of the...
10:37Nope, didn't want to get rid of that.
10:39But let's get rid of the cloud as well.
10:41Now, there is some cooler air coming over the north of the high.
10:46And there's the potential, depending exactly where this high pressure is going to be sitting,
10:50there's the potential for some of this cooler air to cut in into particularly eastern parts of the country.
10:56And then it may just displace the high just a little bit further towards the west.
11:01Now, no guarantee.
11:03Different models want to do different things.
11:05But so just bear that in mind.
11:06I think quite likely we'll stay largely under the influence of the high and the cooler air will stay away from us.
11:12But just be aware that there is the potential as we go through this weekend, beginning of next week, perhaps,
11:16that we could see some chillier air cutting in.
11:19And then with the fact that we will have some clear spells at times and generally light winds,
11:24when you add in that chillier air, by night, temperatures could get relatively low.
11:29I mean, a touch of frost in rural spots, definitely not out of the question through this week anyway.
11:34But if we get that chillier air coming in, then temperatures could be even lower.
11:38So perhaps a chillier feel.
11:40But no guarantee.
11:41I'm not especially confident on that happening.
11:44I think likely it will stay towards the northeast of us.
11:46And we're stuck under this high, which could be quite, well, largely fine, largely calm, and not too chilly.
11:54By day, feeling relatively warm.
11:56Light winds, sunshine at this time of year.
11:57It's still quite warm if you get any of that.
12:00Then let's keep going before I get distracted any more.
12:05And we have high, don't need the winds, high pressure still in control, still towards the north, maybe towards the east.
12:12If we get that cutting in, could be a few showery bursts of rain.
12:16But on the whole, a lot of dry weather to come.
12:18And to be honest, it looks like that high pressure is going to stick around as we go through much of next week as well.
12:24Now, here I have my probabilistic pressure trend.
12:27And what you can see through the end of this week, this weekend, and the beginning of next week, very high percentage chances for high pressure to be the dominant feature.
12:36So through Friday to Monday, it's gone with 100% on the most model rounds now.
12:43100%.
12:43And I don't think really any forecast is really 100% at the moment.
12:47But nonetheless, very high confidence for high pressure to be the generally dominating story across the UK.
12:54And even as we go further on through much of next week, even by the following weekend, it's, you know, 87, 77% for Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
13:03And so very high likelihood of high pressure sticking around as we go through, well, the next two weeks, really.
13:11What happens thereafter?
13:12Well, some signs of more mobile setup and more mobile setup coming in, particularly across the south.
13:19So more changeable, unsettled weather developing as we go towards the end of October.
13:23But that's awfully far ahead at the moment.
13:26I think for the time being, let's just focus on the high pressure that's going to be around for a little, bang the table, for a little while.
13:34Now, let's go for a tephigram because I've talked about the fact that the high pressure is going to be quite cloudy at times.
13:43And I've explained that there's some moisture and I've explained that it's being trapped.
13:48But what's trapping it?
13:49Well, we have something called a capping inversion as we go through this weekend.
13:54And so what you've got to think or remember is generally the temperature of the air lowers as you rise up.
14:01And that allows for parcels of air to rise and allows for cloud to develop it here and there and stuff because warmer air rises up through cooler air.
14:08But when you get this capping inversion, this layer of warmer air, that stops the air from rising.
14:15It traps it below it.
14:16What I have is a tephigram.
14:18If you've not seen a tephigram before, I keep saying this every time I bring a tephigram on a deep dive.
14:22I would love to go through them in more detail, but today's not the day.
14:25But what we have in the black solid line, that is our air temperature, our dry bulb temperature.
14:31And then the dotted line is our dew point temperature.
14:35So remember, your dew point temperature is the temperature at which the air needs to be cooled down to,
14:39if you keep pressure the same, for it to reach 100% humidity, so fully saturated.
14:45And what you can see, then, this is going up through the atmosphere.
14:50And don't worry that the lines are skewed.
14:52The isotherms, the lines of equal temperature, they skew off that way just because otherwise your graph would go,
15:00because the temperature drops as you go up through the atmosphere, it would go off that way.
15:04So we counter that with a tephigram by doing it that way.
15:06Anyway, my point is, it's around, where are we, 950, about 800,000 meters up.
15:15We're looking at a capping inversion as we go through this weekend.
15:19And so that's doing a couple of things.
15:21It's trapping that moisture that I mentioned that is around because of the setup they've had leading up to this high-pressure building
15:30and because the air is coming from across the Atlantic and that kind of thing.
15:34It's trapping that moisture in a relatively small layer of the atmosphere.
15:38So we're talking the bottom, like, 1,000 meters or so.
15:41And so do I mean 1,000?
15:45Yeah, roughly.
15:46And so if this wasn't there, then all that moisture would be spread out over a much thicker layer of the atmosphere.
15:54And so that would mean there'd be less cloud in general.
15:56But because it's trapped so low down, it's, yeah, a much smaller layer of the much thicker amount of cloud that will be around.
16:08And you can see that as well when you compare the dew point and the air temperature.
16:12They're very close together.
16:13So the dew point depression is close to zero, if not zero.
16:16And so that means we're going to be getting a lot of cloud.
16:19This is profile for this coming weekend for, I can't remember exactly where it was for.
16:24But if we look at another profile, again for this weekend, but perhaps slightly closer towards the center of the high.
16:30And it still has this inversion.
16:31So there's still some of that moisture is trapped down.
16:33But the dew point depression is a bit bigger.
16:36So there's this spread.
16:37And so there's the potential for some clear breaks to develop.
16:42So I do think there will be some sunshine, some clear spells by night, some sunshine by day.
16:47But not everywhere.
16:49I think it will be quite cloudy at times as well.
16:51And this is really tricky, tricky, difficult to forecast.
16:56Because, well, several reasons.
16:59One, because, I mean, if it was wet and if it was windy, the rain and the wind, they would take a priority.
17:06They would be more important for us to, you know, nail, get right.
17:09And they'll be more noticeable.
17:11So it's only really in a setup like this where we have the high pressure and the calm setup and not a huge amount of rain, especially strong winds.
17:18It's only in a setup like this that people really notice if the cloud forecast is right or wrong.
17:24And it is important, very important, especially at a time like this, because it will play a big role in how warm, how cold it will get.
17:32So, you know, during the day at the moment, if you're stuck under the cloud, a bit of a fresh, cool feel to things.
17:37If you get some sunshine with the light winds feeling pretty warm.
17:40And then conversely at night, the fact if you have cloud or not could be the difference between you getting a touch of frost or it being a pretty mild night.
17:50And so the fact that it's quite tricky to forecast this cloud is a bit of an issue.
17:55But why is it so tricky?
17:57Well, if we think that this is quite a thin layer of cloud that I'm suggesting here, not a particularly thick one.
18:04And so in the grand scheme of things, when you compare it to the whole, you know, whole layer of air that we're forecasting for, remember, this is all forecast data.
18:14It's actually quite a small amount.
18:16Now, we only have a finite level of or finite number of levels that we split the atmosphere into when it comes to forecasting.
18:23So if you remember, when it comes to our supercomputers, we split the world into grids, into a grid, and we forecast the information, the weather factors for each individual square.
18:35We do that then in layers through the atmosphere as well.
18:38So all the squares through the atmosphere as well.
18:40But we can only split it into so many.
18:42The more we do, the more supercomputer power it takes, the longer it takes for us to get the data and the less useful it will become.
18:49So we have to make a decision based on power as to how many levels we split it up into.
18:54Now, if we're trying to forecast cloud through all this much layer, then we have lots of information, lots of levels.
18:59But because we're only trying to forecast the cloud through a relatively small level layer of the atmosphere right near the ground, we have much fewer.
19:07And so just small changes would make a have a big impact on how much cloud would be forecast or not.
19:14So that's why it becomes trickier in a setup like this.
19:17So I hope that makes some sense.
19:20So, yeah, so there will be a fair bit of cloud at times with this high pressure that we have across us through the end of the week and into the weekend.
19:27There will also be some clear spells.
19:29Chasing the clear spells and the cloud will be our job through this week.
19:34And then it will also that will also play a role in where when we see fog developing.
19:40Now, fog warnings are notoriously difficult to get out hugely in advance.
19:47We will most likely need some fog warnings through this week, but quite likely that there'll be short notice ones.
19:53So we'll start to see where the cloud breaks are, where we're seeing the fog developing.
19:57Now, we'll know the prone spots as to where we're more likely to see it, depending on the setup.
20:02So there'll be where we're keeping a closer eye on.
20:05But, yeah, just be prepared as we go through this week.
20:07There's a reasonable chance that we will need some fog warnings.
20:10So stay up to date with those.
20:14Right.
20:14Oh, one other thing that I want to talk to you about with regards to this week's weather.
20:19Now, there is a low developing, which has been highlighted by the National Hurricane Center out in the Atlantic.
20:25And they've gone with a 90 percent chance of it developing into a tropical storm.
20:30Now, if you cast your mind back to last week, we had Imelda, yes, but also Umberto, which developed into a hurricane.
20:39And then it was Umberto that fed into what became Storm Amy.
20:43They were different features, which is why we called it Storm Amy, not Storm Umberto, because it was a separate low that developed.
20:50But it did get some of the energy from Umberto, which then led to it partly being such a deep low, like I said, for the time of year.
21:00But this one, I mean, there are similarities between how this and Umberto initially developed.
21:05But this one looks like it will track northwestwards and then, yes, come come back northeastwards towards the UK, obviously weakening, depending on how far it develops anyway, as it comes towards us.
21:14But at the moment, it looks like the high pressure, the blocking high across the UK will stop it coming towards us.
21:22And so although there's a potential that it will come closer to us, it really doesn't look like it will bring any impacts like Storm Amy.
21:32And so it's was initially there are similarities to Umberto a week or so ago.
21:37In reality, the end result is going to look pretty different for the UK because of the blocking high that we have across us.
21:45Fab. Last thing then, moons. Let's talk about it.
21:50There is a full moon tonight and it's going to be a super moon.
21:54So it's actually the first super moon of the year.
21:56And interestingly, it's the first of three consecutive months where we have a super moon.
22:01So October, November and December will all have super moons.
22:04So we haven't had any. And then we get three to end the year.
22:08They're a bit like buses, I guess you could say.
22:10So super moons, it will appear about 14 percent bigger and about 30 percent brighter than a usual moon.
22:17And this one is called the harvest moon.
22:20The full moon in October is also known as the hunter moon.
22:22But it's called the harvest moon because it comes closest to the autumn equinox.
22:27And a few things about that.
22:28Actually, interestingly, at this time of year, the time at which the moon rises,
22:35the change in time at which the moon rises is less at this time of year than it is during the rest of the year.
22:42The average through the rest of the year is around 50 minutes.
22:45So it gets 50 minutes later each day.
22:47But at this time of year, it's much, much less than that.
22:51And that's part of the reason why it gets its name as the harvest moon,
22:55because traditionally, the bright moon in the sky close to the equinox,
22:59it rises at a similar time each evening.
23:03I think it's around 20 past six through Tuesday evening that it's going to be rising.
23:07And it will only be a few minutes later through Wednesday evening and so on.
23:12And because it's rising at a similar time each evening,
23:16you get a lot of that moonlight, which helps you when it comes to the harvest,
23:20helps you when it comes to hunting, etc.
23:22And so it was really seen as a big benefit.
23:25So the closest moon, full moon to the autumn equinox is called the harvest moon.
23:30This year is going to be a super moon.
23:32And there's a reasonable chance that quite a few of us will get a chance to see it.
23:37Not everywhere, because as I mentioned, there is a front pushing through.
23:41So if I just dart ahead, let's go to 20 past six.
23:46Roughly.
23:47So we have a front lingering across parts of northern England into north Wales.
23:52So it's going to be cloudy.
23:53It's going to be wet here.
23:54So not great visibility for seeing the super moon here.
23:58But across much of Scotland, some clearer skies in between a few sherry bursts across northern Ireland,
24:04some fairly lengthy clear spells and some clear breaks across central southern parts of England and Wales,
24:10but not a huge amount.
24:12So the best chance of viewing it will be across the north.
24:14But like I said, the moon rises at a very similar time on Wednesday night,
24:21and actually for much of England and Wales, much clearer skies.
24:24So whilst technically the full moon's tonight, and that's when the moon will perhaps be bigger,
24:29it's still going to be very big in the sky compared to usual as we go through Wednesday night and for the next couple of nights.
24:35So if you don't get a chance to see it tonight, then just bear that in mind.
24:40The other thing to factor in, I think there's a reasonable chance of seeing the aurora across the far north of Scotland tonight.
24:46Now, just to go back, we actually have often quite clear skies, that's good news.
24:52But the bright full moon will make it a little bit harder, because if you have tried to spot the northern lights in the past,
24:59the advice is, you know, go somewhere dark, let your eyes adjust and look up, or look north.
25:05But with the bright full moon, that might make that a little bit tricky.
25:11So no matter what, if you do take any photos of the moon looking impressively big or impressively bright,
25:17do share them with us here at the Met Office, across our social media.
25:20And like I said at the start as well, if you happen to go up over any hills and mountains.
25:27Did I even mention that?
25:29Did I talk about when it came to the inversion?
25:31Apologies if I did.
25:32I've lost my train of thoughts.
25:34But I think one thing that I wanted to highlight as well, with this tapping inversion that I mentioned for this weekend,
25:40with this being around 1,000 metres up, there are hills and mountains which are higher than this.
25:47I mean, what, Ben Nevis is around 4,400 feet up.
25:50And so there's a reasonable chance if you go to some of the higher peaks across the hills and mountains around the UK this weekend,
25:58although there'll be cloud closer to the ground, you could actually climb above the cloud and then be looking out over the cloud.
26:05You'll have largely sunny skies.
26:07I mean, look how dry it is once you get above that inversion.
26:11So lots of clear skies, lots of bright sunny weather.
26:14So, yeah, could be quite a nice day for a nice setup for going up some hills and mountains.
26:19And so if you take any photos of that or the supermoon, sorry, I digressed, then do share those photos with us.
26:25I'd love to see them.
26:26Right.
26:27I meant to mention that earlier, but don't worry.
26:29I got there in the end.
26:30Thank you so much for watching.
26:31I hope you found it interesting.
26:33Like I said, if you have any questions, do hit them in the comments,
26:36and I'll try and look at some of them in time for the Weather Studio Live on Friday.
26:40Anna and I will be back 12.15 as always.
26:42Anna will be doing the 10-day trend tomorrow, so worth checking that out.
26:46She'll have more detail about how the high pressure is developing.
26:49Maybe she'll have a slightly better idea of when and where we could see any fog.
26:53And otherwise, enjoy the rest of your week, and I'll see you again soon.
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