00:00Churchill Downs race number three. It's the grade three Chaluki on Saturday. It's a one turn mile. We have some really nice Philly and mares in here, three year olds and up. And I thought, you know, on paper, we've got the two, the and the six and the seven, the two outside horses that'll probably take a lot of money and be the really big players.
00:18We start out with Impel, a horse who early on in her career had really high hopes for her. She wins a couple races early. She goes into the grade one Ashland at Keeneland. She's only two to one in that race. And she just doesn't really progress from that point on. Honestly, she has some okay races since then. I think the one turn mile is probably a good spot for her because she's not a horse that wants to really pass horses all that much.
00:44And so she wants to really be close and kind of keep that same momentum going. What do you think about Impel's chances in here?
00:50Yeah, the one the mile at Churchill is unique. It's one turn. There's a couple other tracks like that Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Belmont, but a lot of two turn one miles, but she did win at the over this one term out of your point three back. Otherwise, I'm with you. I thought there was a high hopes for this Philly to be one of the top Brad Cox younger than three year old Phillies in his barn.
01:10They didn't really pan out. I feel like they've been searching for her niche. Hard to knock a horse that turned almost 600,000 and coming in with two wins.
01:18But I think she's going to be in a tough spot here down on the inside against this group.
01:22No more positive. Two starts back at Ellis Park. She defeated a horse named Regald, who came back and won the grade three Delaware handicap and then finished third in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.
01:30So that form actually has come back pretty well. We move to the two Shred the Gnar. She's a nice Philly, Scott.
01:36She's run three times. She's almost undefeated. Her two wins came by six plus and seven lengths. She has good speed.
01:42She actually showed us she can sit off the pace a little bit. And this barn trainer, Brian Lynch, is proven with horses coming off of a long layoff.
01:50I think he's at 19% over the last five years in a really nice ROI if you're just betting his horses off the long layoff.
01:57So she seems like she might be the speed in here. She looks like the quickest on paper.
02:01She has an unlimited upside, basically, and it doesn't take a genius to see that. She lost by a neck and then two big wins.
02:09Now, she did have things favorable in those races. She dominated in her last two.
02:13And she goes to the sidelines in the middle of the year, right before the Kentucky Derby was run.
02:18And we haven't seen her since. But, man, she's got upside. She should be on the lead by herself with not a lot of speed.
02:24So she's tough to really knock. It is interesting. The one-turn mile, she might be more of a two-turn type speed horse.
02:30We'll see. She's going to be a shorter price, though, than I'm really excited about.
02:35Literate is a grade three winner who actually won on the Woodbine Synthetic back in July.
02:40She hasn't been competitive, though, in her last couple races, Scott.
02:43She does move into the Brad Cox barn. If you're making a list of, like, top five trainers in all of North America, he's on that list.
02:50And if you're making a list of top five riders in all of North America, Irad Ortiz Jr. is on that list.
02:56So off of just connections alone, you probably take a second look at Literate.
03:00But I got to see a little bit more from him now moving to the dirt.
03:04Yeah, it feels like it's just a starting point for this new trainee for the Cox barn.
03:08And, you know, Irad happens to ride for this barn, so it's not every time he's riding a live horse.
03:14I feel like you could get caught here. I mean, big price, 10 to 1.
03:17But she's going to be way out of it.
03:19This feels, like I said, like just kind of a prep to get her ready maybe for another spot.
03:23That's another point, right?
03:24She doesn't have a lot of early speed, and I don't know if they're going to be flying early in this field.
03:27They're probably going to all be pretty content with their positions.
03:30Runway Diva is grade three place, but just one for the last nine.
03:34Does get Jose Ortiz, though, who's been very, very good over the last year or so in Kentucky.
03:39What do we do with this, Scott?
03:40Jose is the positive here.
03:42You know, this is a barn that doesn't have a lot of runners, hasn't had a lot of success this year.
03:47I think maybe more of a grinder than that one-turn mile-type horse.
03:51We have to have a little combination of sprint and stamina, so I'm not really all that in a runaway diva,
03:57but I'm not giving away much.
03:58She's the biggest price on the board.
04:00Zdorski is the next one, Scott.
04:02She was fourth in her most recent race.
04:04The problem is she was well behind the winner, who was one magic filly, who's drawn right to her outside.
04:09So she's going to have to improve seven lengths on that one.
04:12Some of the positives for Zdorski, she does have a couple wins at Churchill Downs.
04:17Distance shouldn't be a problem for her.
04:19I think the one-turn mile should be fine.
04:21I just don't know if she's going to get the trip, and I don't know if she's quite as good as the top three in here.
04:26Yeah, I think it's a reach to get to any of the non-top three in here on top.
04:31I prefer Zdorski of the three long shots only because of the distance, I think, and the track.
04:37I think she likes it here.
04:39Obviously, you see her with some success over and off track, but the three long shots are all up against it.
04:44But one magic filly is the sixth.
04:47She's had an interesting career.
04:48She got really good last year in 2024.
04:51She won a few races in a row leading into the Breeders' Cup filly in mare sprint.
04:55Then she tailed off a little bit, but she was facing some really good horses along the way.
05:00This was a bounce-back performance for her, and this was her first start in the Brendan Walsh barn.
05:04Shout-out to Brendan Walsh.
05:05Took a picture with him and Frank Miramati at the Breeders' Cup.
05:08Always bet Brendan in Kentucky.
05:09That's the rule here.
05:10One magic filly should sit a pretty good trip in this one, Scott.
05:14Scott should definitely should stalk just off of Shred the Gnar.
05:18This is a filly that I think is going to get the run of the race and is in maybe, if not the best form, one of the best forms coming in.
05:24I like her if she's going to be 3-1.
05:26Rag time rounds out the field.
05:28She'll add the Blinkers.
05:29She's classy.
05:30I mean, in her five races, she's won three of them and a second and a third.
05:33In her last two starts, though, she's gotten a little farther back than, you know, she had earlier in her career, Scott.
05:40She's going to add the Blinkers, which helped her in her first couple races.
05:44But now you're Blinkers on, Blinkers off.
05:46You're coming back on now.
05:48I respect her ability.
05:49I think she's, you know, very likely winner of this race.
05:52But I prefer the horses who have a little bit more speed, like one magic filly, to maybe get the jump on her.
05:58Here she is coming late on the scene.
06:00Yeah, I'm going to hope she comes too late on the scene once again in here as well.
06:04Don't see the race setting up for her.
06:06Maybe the Blinkers will be the equalizer for her to get her more into the race.
06:09I see it maybe more as a negative, not really what Matt probably wanted to do ultimately.
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