Analyzing Scottish Lassie's Edge Amongst Her Competitors

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00:00Let's start with the speed of Scottish Lassie down on the inside.

00:03It's kind of tough to gauge her last race, Scott, because it was a field of four.

00:09It was a race where there was no other speed.

00:12She got the lead easy and she crushed.

00:14She earns a big speed figure and it looks good on paper, but I don't really know what

00:19to take out of that.

00:21One of her rivals in that race, Dry Powder, hit the starting gate and wasn't even around

00:25to put pressure on her early.

00:26I respect that win, but I don't know if I want to take 9-5 or 8-5 on a Philly like

00:33that coming off that victory.

00:34The price is the biggest question.

00:36When she runs a race, she's run really fast.

00:38She's won by 9 lengths and 15 lengths and those are both grade 1 races, but the quality of

00:44those grade 1s has to be taken into account of as well.

00:47She's drawn down on the inside.

00:49She's unlikely to have things her way last time and Joao Rosario is not overly aggressive

00:53normally, was with her, took it to immersive, and I just don't see how they make a decision

00:58to not go this time around.

01:00I think she's going to take a little more money than I'm willing to accept.

01:03You and I saw Joao Rosario out in Southern California for many years.

01:06He can get horses on the lead.

01:07He gets sort of typecast as one who likes to take them back, but he's very good on the

01:12front end when he wants to put a horse out there.

01:15La Cara, right next door, Scott, that's what I think makes this race a little difficult

01:19to handicap because you have these two horses who feel like their best races are when they're

01:23on the lead or when they're able to kind of dictate the race, and Mark Cassie, the trainer

01:28of La Cara, he always says with her, she's going to be out front because that's where she wants

01:32to go, and coming into her most recent race, the Alabama, she had missed a race, and you

01:38could tell the connections felt like she might be a little short in that race.

01:42Wouldn't shock me to see her run well in here, but she's going to have a speed rival right

01:46to her inside.

01:47Yeah, her best races are when she controls things on the front end.

01:50It doesn't mean she has to go super slow, but when she gets in battle, she doesn't perform

01:55all that well, as you can see by looking at the past performances.

01:59So I'm going to let La Cara beat me, particularly at that 7-2 price, even though I respect her

02:04campaign.

02:05Clicquot's in nice form right now, Scott.

02:06She's won three in a row.

02:07She just won the Indiana Oaks a couple months ago, but this is a step up for her, you know,

02:14to try to compete with, like, the top three fillies in this race, and she's going to have

02:18to take another step forward.

02:19Do you think she's in the mix with them?

02:21I do, but this is a filly I'm a fan of, so maybe I'm being over-ambitious.

02:26Big money on debut, didn't have things her way in terms of trip, and then has done absolutely

02:30nothing wrong since then.

02:32The win at Keeneland I thought was amazing, and then really has just handled her business

02:36and then some.

02:38She obviously gets a major class test, but with Ira out of board, I don't think she's

02:42going to be on the lead.

02:43I think she might benefit, in fact, from a lively early pace and then get the jump on

02:47good cheer.

02:48I think she's a very, very intriguing filly.

02:51Scott, I kind of had this race pegged with two different tiers of horses.

02:55I had those big three that we mentioned, Scottish Lassie, La Cara, and good cheer.

02:59They're the obvious horses.

03:00If you're trying to beat them, I thought there were three that kind of looked like horses you

03:04could take a stab with, the one you mentioned, Clicquot, and then this one, Indy Bay, would

03:08be another one in that group who's lightly raced.

03:10She's got some upside.

03:11I'm not sure yet what kind of trip we're going to get from her in here, right?

03:14Because all of her races have been sprinting.

03:17Now she's going to stretch out, so naturally you'd assume she's going to be a little closer

03:21to the lead, but if she can sit like third or fourth in here, that might be a great trip

03:25behind the speeds, and I like the fact that she's coming out of a race at Charlestown,

03:29Scott, because the complexion of that racetrack at seven furlongs is actually two turns

03:34kind of sets you up well as a stepping stone to go a little bit longer.

03:38Yeah, we were just taking a look at that big win there, and I think that is very noteworthy.

03:42You look at seven furlongs in your program and your past performances, you're going to

03:46think that that's a one-turn race because it is just about everywhere, not at Charlestown,

03:51so I think it was a good setup for this race.

03:53The key, though, to me, like you said, is trip.

03:56Is she going to be able to relax going this long against this level of competition?

04:00If she can, I think it bodes well for her chances, but I'm a little bit leery that she'll be able to.

04:05I had a tougher time making cases for the next two horses, not too late.

04:09Was 94-1 in the Charlestown Oaks behind Indy Bay, and we're not even sure if Indy Bay is like

04:14the top of the contenders in here.

04:16Right.

04:16I mean, huge prices when this Philly takes on this level of competition, and she has

04:21not proven that she's deserving of taking more money.

04:25Her best efforts have been on the front end like she was at Monmouth 3 back on June 29th

04:31in the Merrifield.

04:32She's completely up against it.

04:34Our daydreaming girl seems like she needs to step up a bit on the class level.

04:38What I do think is a little interesting about her is she seems like she wants to come from

04:43way out of it and off the pace.

04:44So it doesn't look like on paper the additional distance or being at the mile, mile and a 16th

04:50type distance should be a problem for her.

04:52I just don't know how good she quite is.

04:53I can maybe see her as like a third, fourth, bottom of the exotics passing some horses late.

04:58Could you build a case for this one, our daydreaming girl?

05:01I think I would make the similar case.

05:02If you think it's, if you're someone that thinks this is going to be a fast pace, which

05:06I think is a very decent chance or happened, you know, they run this race a hundred times,

05:10more than 50 it is.

05:11Maybe you could make a case that she's going to benefit and can finish.

05:14Third or fourth, but I think she's outclassed when it comes to winning this race.

05:18Good cheer is one of the three grade one winners in here.

05:21She was seven for seven to start her career.

05:23She wins the grade one Kentucky Oaks and she has legitimate trouble in the acorn off of

05:28that.

05:28I thought she bounced back nicely in the Alabama last time, Scott, because I wasn't sure if

05:32she was one of those fillies that's just really precocious and maybe she ran a lot of

05:36her best races early, but I thought this was a pretty good performance.

05:39It was still right in the same speed figures that she'd been running, but she was a clear

05:43cut second to the horse.

05:44Who's now the leader in the division.

05:46And she didn't get the, she didn't get the more beneficial trip.

05:49She had to kind of come after her a little bit late.

05:52Nitrogen got the jump on her.

05:53And I've, I don't think I've ever picked good cheer on top a spoiler alert.

05:57I will in this race.

05:58I just think it sets up pretty well for her when you look at the other possibilities,

06:03I think of horses like Scottish Lassie, La Cara, you know, they will run some good races,

06:09but then throw in some clunkers.

06:11For the most part, the body of work from good cheer is really solid, Scott.

06:14I think she's just going to get a nice setup in here.

06:16Yeah.

06:17Her one poor effort was very forgivable.

06:19She was against the racetrack over a sloppy going in the grade one acorn on June six.

06:24She's done a little wrong.

06:25The question is, is she continuing to move forward?

06:27Or like you said, did she just get the jump on her crop in terms of maturing?

06:32I think she's going to get a good setup here.

06:33I definitely think she's the horse to beat, whether she goes off favored or not, we'll see.

06:37But I think I'm going to lean elsewhere in terms of the top selection and someone I would bet on.

06:43One of the other intriguing wildcard horses in here rounds out the field.

06:46That's dry powder.

06:47And Scott, she was in the CCA Oaks, but she hits the gate right out of the, right at the start.

06:52And she just never got involved in that race.

06:54If you put a line through that race in the past performances, all of a sudden her form looks a lot better and she's on the upswing.

07:01She's going to need to take another step forward, but I actually like that she's drawn to the outside.

07:06She might be able to sit off a little bit.

07:08Just not quite sure how good she is.

07:10What do you think about dry powder in here?

07:11We're going to find out how good she is, but it's been a great year for trainer Chad Summers.

07:15He's winning at over 20% clip, positive ROI if you wager on him.

07:20It's going to be a big time class test for her.

07:22I think she can get the distance.

07:24We'll see if the outside draw is against her or maybe like you said, it'll benefit her.

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