00:00Quick thought from last night's game, not the best game ever played, for sure.
00:04Five interceptions in that game, Purdy at three in the first half.
00:06Then Bryce Young had one of the worst passes into the end zone
00:09with a chance to maybe make that game a little bit different.
00:13So San Francisco wins.
00:15San Francisco now in the NFC West is staying right there with Seattle
00:19and with the Rams.
00:20They're eight and four now.
00:22Their bye is obviously coming up.
00:24Seattle's eight and three.
00:25The Rams are in first at nine and two.
00:27Okay, Carolina dropped back to six, 500.
00:30They're now six and six.
00:31So Tampa gets a little breath of fresh air off of their loss
00:34and, of course, the injury to Baker Mayfield.
00:37But that's going to be a battle now.
00:38But the MRI says shoulder damage not as bad as they thought,
00:41so he's not going to miss a game.
00:43Great.
00:43So he's going to play this upcoming weekend.
00:45They're six and five.
00:46Carolina, essentially a half game back because they've played the extra game.
00:49And they still play each other twice.
00:51Yeah, something happened in that game last night that fascinates me.
00:54Because remember earlier this year when all those math majors out there
00:57yelled at me that I don't know anything about ball when it comes to going for two,
01:03not going for two, et cetera, and what the analytics are.
01:06So third quarter last night, Carolina scores their only touchdown of the game.
01:10And it's a 17-9 game.
01:12All right?
01:13So they decide to go for two.
01:16Now play that out for a second.
01:17They wind up losing the game 20-7, okay?
01:19But they decide to go for two there.
01:22And I'm looking at it going, wait a minute.
01:24It's 17-9, right?
01:27Right.
01:27So don't you go for one so that the next time if you should score a touchdown,
01:33you have the choice.
01:34Either kick the extra point, in theory go to overtime,
01:37or go for two and go for the win.
01:39When you go for two in the spot they went for two,
01:43now you're leaving yourself in a bad spot.
01:46Because if you don't get it, now you have to go for two
01:49if you score a touchdown again later on, right?
01:52I mean, that's your theory.
01:54The counter would be, whether you get it or not,
01:57from the two-yard line, an NFL defense one of the two times will get two yards.
02:01Yeah, but I know the analytics drive me crazy.
02:06I've always believed you only go for two when you have to.
02:10So I don't have to go for two there.
02:12I kicked the extra point.
02:13Now I'm down seven.
02:14All right, I'm down seven there.
02:16Now I've got optionality.
02:18If I score another touchdown, I can go, depending on what's going on in the game,
02:22how much time's on the clock, I can go for one, force overtime, or tie the game.
02:27Or if I'm really feeling it, and I've got the defense on their heels,
02:30let's go for the win.
02:32But by going for two earlier, now you're forcing yourself to have to go for two
02:38to tie the game, not to win the game, to tie the game.
02:42If you don't get it.
02:43Correct.
02:43But if you get it, now you're an extra point away from winning the game.
02:47That's the argument the analytics would make.
02:49Right, but it's not like going for two is a 100% proposition.
02:53We know that it's not.
02:54They're saying it's a 50-50 proposition.
02:57So if you go twice, you're going to get one of them.
02:59That's the argument the analytics will make.
03:01That if you do it twice, you'll get one of them.
03:01I think the analytics are wrong on that across the board, okay?
03:05Okay.
03:05So now play out the other part of this, because since gambling is such a big part of the NFL
03:09right now, the spread last night was San Francisco minus seven.
03:14Yep.
03:14And I'm not talking about the smart gamblers out there who know to always buy a half a
03:18point to make it six and a half or seven and a half.
03:21I'm talking about the average American who goes, San Fran minus seven?
03:24That's easy money.
03:26They're playing Carolina.
03:27The game's in San Francisco.
03:29Carolina doesn't have a quarterback.
03:30I'm putting my money on San Francisco minus seven.
03:33So in the moment, in the moment, it's 17-9.
03:39Carolina scores that touchdown.
03:41Six points to make it 17-9.
03:43That's an eight-point spread.
03:46When, if you're a San Francisco 49er better, what do you hope happens here?
03:50You're hoping they go for two then.
03:52Well, you're hoping they don't succeed and go for two.
03:56Right.
03:56But you'll, you'll, you'll settle on the extra point because you don't lose.
04:01Right.
04:01It's a tie.
04:01It's a pull.
04:01Right.
04:02If they convert the two-point conversion, you lose your money.
04:06You're not losing.
04:06If there's no other score right there.
04:08And this is the problem, although it's a fun one for a lot of people and why so many people
04:13are engaged now in what might be a meaningless game on a Monday night because you made it a
04:17pay-per-view.
04:18Mm-hmm.
04:19There are so many people I saw on Twitter last night as I'm watching the game going that shit
04:23crazy.
04:25Going crazy.
04:25Because Carolina went for two.
04:28Right.
04:28Not because they cared about Carolina, because of where they had their money.
04:33Right.
04:33And they're yelling and screaming, you gotta kick the extra point.
04:37You're killing me.
04:38And back and forth.
04:40But again, I have always been of the belief, you don't go for two until you have to.
04:47Going for two should not be an aggressive move.
04:50It should be a desperate move.
04:52Because it's not a guarantee that you're going to convert the two-point conversion.
04:56Right?
04:57So instead of being down seven, and then a two-pointer can win the game for you, now you're down eight.
05:03And now you have to convert the two, or the game is over.
05:06And now you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're down seven, and then you're
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