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00:00How about a 1 o'clock start between Green Bay and Detroit?
00:02And by the way, massive games for three teams in the NFC North, Joe.
00:06Green Bay, Detroit, and then also the Chicago Bears.
00:09If you look at the standings right now in the NFC North, Bears 8-3, Packers 7-3-1, Detroit Lions 7-4.
00:15The focal point, Green Bay and Detroit kicking off in a new time this year, Joe.
00:181 o'clock, no longer 12.30 kickoffs on Thanksgiving.
00:22They want it to be more uniform like a Sunday in the NFL with a 1 o'clock kickoff.
00:26This line opened up, Joe.
00:282.5 is a favorite towards Detroit.
00:29Still sits 2.5 as a favorite.
00:31The total, up slightly, 48.5 to 49.5.
00:35Green Bay and Detroit in Motown, Joe.
00:37What's your spread line here?
00:39Well, we saw this at three in varying places, Donnie, for just a minute or two before it was brought back down,
00:48which tells me that likely what you see here is what you get.
00:52I am not sure that we're going to get enough push one way or another before kick here on Thursday
00:57to get a full field goal.
00:59If we do, that's going to have to be an awful lot of Detroit money coming in because there's clearly a lot of people in the market, Donnie,
01:08thinking that coming off of that overtime game there against the New York Giants,
01:13they gave them everything that they had, even at being at home, may not be enough to save them,
01:18considering the Packers and how good they looked the first time they played to start the season.
01:23So I think what you see is what you're going to get.
01:27It's going to open up a lot of teasers, I think, for this week.
01:31No, it certainly is, too.
01:32You look at the numbers, like, oh, Detroit at home just to win by a field goal.
01:34But understand, Detroit has not been very good as of late here.
01:37Still trying to find that identity again, other than give the ball to Jameer and hope he goes 69 yards with a touchdown run at this point.
01:43We'll find that out early on Thanksgiving Day.
01:45How about a little bit later, Joe?
01:47A football Friday, as we talk about here, a Black Friday event, 3 o'clock start.
01:51The Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles, two 8-3 football teams on a standalone Friday in the NFL.
01:57The Eagles opened up with that look-ahead line, Joe, around 6.5 to 7.
02:00It still sits there today in a total, which opened up at 44, excuse me, 45.5, now down to 44.5.
02:07That seems like a heavy line.
02:09But are they setting the hook here where I was like, wait a second, the Eagles just aren't right.
02:12They can't get their offense.
02:13They're favored by 7.
02:14They can't do that.
02:15The Bears are really good.
02:16Those numbers, they are there for a reason.
02:18What's your spread line here, Joe?
02:20Well, it's so funny, right?
02:21And I am one of these people, Donnie.
02:25It's the game of the week, I think, anyway, on Friday.
02:28But the Bears are 8-3, Donnie.
02:31But they are sitting with a negative three-point differential on the season.
02:36So there is some regression coming.
02:39And I think that's what the market is looking at here as well.
02:42But it's not like the Eagles are blowing teams out.
02:44They're 8-3.
02:44And I think they only have a 30-point, a positive 30-point differential.
02:48So it's not like, offensively, they're destroying teams either.
02:53This was a, there was a rogue 7.5 in a couple of spots when we looked ahead here.
02:59That was obviously brought back down to 7.
03:02There was even a 6.5 in a couple of spots yesterday, Donnie.
03:06But that, too, was back up to 7, which seems to be the thought.
03:11I don't know that we're going to get just under or just over.
03:14I think 7, much like we saw last night with the 49ers, Sunday night with the Rams, I think 7 is what you're going to get before kick.
03:22How about a little Sunday fun day from your neck of the woods here?
03:25A resurgent Miami Dolphins, fresh off a buy, healthy and ready to go.
03:29Take it on the lowly New Orleans Saints, Joe.
03:32And are the people buying in?
03:33We have look-ahead lines around 4.5.
03:34Now I'm seeing as high as 6s in the marketplace in a total of around 42.5 to 41.5, depending on where you're shopping at.
03:42New Orleans comes to town.
03:44Miami.
03:44Trying to go on a win streak here with Tua.
03:46What's your spread line?
03:47Yeah, I mean, but listen, Miami will have an upper hand here.
03:52Make no mistake about it here.
03:54It's been a remarkable turnaround for this Dolphins team here.
03:59Now coming out, I mean, they hit the bye week, Donnie.
04:02What'd they win?
04:03They've got two in a row now, including winning overseas there against the Commanders.
04:08The Saints are just absolutely awful.
04:11They came out out of their bye and got crushed by Kirk Cousins.
04:15You know, we saw some 6s on Sunday.
04:19We saw some 5.5s.
04:21The reality is that it's going to be very hard, I think, for the books to get any Saints money in this game here.
04:27It feels like 6 is what we are going to get.
04:30I don't think this hits a touchdown, Donnie.
04:32I think 6 is where we're going to land.
04:34NFL Thursday, Turkey Day.
04:37You used to see two games on there.
04:38You always knew it was Detroit.
04:40You always knew it was going to be Dallas, but now they throw you a third game.
04:43And, by the way, good games on Thursday as well.
04:46Green Bay, Detroit to start it off.
04:48Kansas City and Dallas.
04:49The script has been written to make sure that was a good game.
04:52Cincinnati at home.
04:53It seems to be Cincinnati on the road, but the last game of the night, Joe Burrow coming back to the lineup here,
04:58taking a Lamar Jackson who seemingly has an injury on every single part of his leg.
05:02Now, Joe, if we focus maybe on the games of the day, we should say, Green Bay and Detroit, that two-and-a-half-point number is very interesting to me.
05:09It looks like they're begging you to take the Detroit Lions, but we haven't liked what we saw out of the Lions the past couple weeks here.
05:15An offense that is susceptible to dropping back and getting pressure on their quarterback, Green Bay's really good at doing that with Micah Parsons.
05:21I'm interested to see how this one plays out.
05:22And also, Joe, that total that sits at 49-and-a-half on a short week in the division, that could be interesting.
05:28Very interesting here.
05:31I mean, in Houston, a little extra rest, right?
05:35The last time we saw them was a Thursday night game against Buffalo here.
05:40So we saw the look-ahead line around four-and-a-half in this one, Donnie.
05:45And then it dropped down to three-and-a-half.
05:47And then there was a lot of indie money that came in yesterday, which pushed it back up to four-and-a-half.
05:53And I think that's where you're going to get.
05:55The hook, I don't think, is disappearing.
05:57You'll either be able to get three-and-a-half or four-and-a-half.
06:00I don't think that there's going to be an overflow of Houston money coming in because who's the quarterback?
06:07Is it Stroud?
06:08Do we trust them?
06:09Is it Davis Mills?
06:11Do we trust them?
06:12This game is in indie.
06:13I think it kind of lands exactly where it is right now.
06:17What the heck game are you talking about right now?
06:19Where are we at?
06:20What's going on here?
06:21I thought indie and Houston.
06:23And what you just said?
06:23Or what game are we looking at?
06:25I don't think so.
06:26Yeah, Green Bay.
06:27Oh, you're talking Green Bay.
06:29Oh, I love it.
06:30I'm sorry.
06:30I'm telling you.
06:31I love it, man.
06:32You had me off my rocker for about 30 seconds.
06:34I did have you all fired up for that one.
06:37Yes.
06:37No, this game is – listen, Donnie.
06:39This game is – you win and you're in, right?
06:43If you lose, it's an elimination game.
06:45So, to me, this is going to be playoff football.
06:48I don't like Dan Campbell calling plays.
06:51I think that's a giant red flag.
06:53I don't like the offense of Green Bay either.
06:56And I would love to bet the under in this game on a short week, Donnie,
07:00which is where I keep leaning to because I don't think the side –
07:03it's a coin flip game.
07:05Tell me who's got an edge offensively in this game.
07:08I can't figure it out.
07:10Yeah, it's interesting because we seemingly want to go back to the old Detroit teams, right?
07:15When I say old, like the last two years.
07:17Dominant on offense.
07:18It doesn't matter who they play.
07:18They're in a dome, they're putting up 35-plus points.
07:21But you see over the past couple weeks – and, yes, they scored a lot against the Giants.
07:24It was overtime.
07:25But they struggled at times in that game with the pressure.
07:28You're going to get a lot of pressure and a way better secondary.
07:31The only question is, like, what are we getting out of Jordan Love and that Packers offense?
07:34It should be so much better than it is.
07:36And if you look at last week, they didn't have to do anything against Minnesota.
07:39Minnesota couldn't move the football.
07:40Detroit will move it, but I'm with you.
07:42I'm thinking more under than over right now.
07:44The touchdown market, it's no surprise in this game.
07:47Jameer Gibbs, a minus-190 price.
07:49Josh Jacobs hoping to come back, and it's one of the minus-145.
07:52But Emmanuel Wilson was really good last week, scored a touchdown, and had a lot of those carries.
07:57We'll see if they have a split backfield.
07:58And then some of the other plus-money guys like David Montgomery.
08:01Touchdown market here.
08:02We're going to get some touchdowns.
08:04Who gets them, Joe?
08:06Yeah, well, I mean, usually Gibbs and Jacobs always get a touchdown, right?
08:09I mean, Jacobs has been like the touchdown machine for how long now while he's been with the Packers.
08:17And Gibbs is a home run threat.
08:19Anytime he touches the ball, he can take it to the house here.
08:21But I think both defenses are preparing to make sure that that doesn't happen, right?
08:27So I think likely the touchdowns are coming from the receivers or the tight ends because I think both defenses are going to eliminate what just happened to the Giants.
08:39There's no way they're going to allow him to go, you know, 80 yards in one touch, something along those lines.
08:44That's what they're going to look to prevent in this game.
08:46By the way, if we do look at the NFC North odds to win that division, we already talked about it.
08:51Eight and three team in the Bears, seven, three and one, and seven and four, right in a line.
08:55But the Packers are the favorites there, plus 130.
08:57The Lions are plus 170.
08:59And they're the Bears sticking around with technically the best record right now at a plus 260 price.
09:03Any buy-on points for you for either one of those teams?
09:05Because I got to tell you, I'm a little bit out on the Lions right now, Joe.
09:09I am.
09:09If the playoffs, if the season ended today, Donnie, they're out, which is why this game is so important to them.
09:18Because, A, Green Bay will have a tiebreaker if they win this game.
09:22They already beat them the first game, right?
09:24So this has kind of put up a shut-up time.
09:27I don't think there's any tomorrow.
09:28I don't think you can come back and spot the Bears or Green Bay two games in the loss column here, which is exactly what would happen.
09:37So, to me, this is a kitchen sink game.
09:39I think Dan Campbell knows it.
09:41I think everything that they have is going to go into winning this game and let the chips fall where they may.
09:47But it's hard to trust either of these teams.
09:51And it's hard to trust a Bears team that is minus three in a point differential and yet somehow has won eight games.
09:59It's a crazy division.
10:01It really is.
10:02And also, the Lions, you know, say what you want about the play calling.
10:05And Dan Campbell took it away from Morton, who last year, obviously, Ben Johnson, one of the best play callers in the NFL, has an eight-win football team now in the Bears.
10:12It's seeming like it's either Jameer Gibbs or it's Amon Ross St. Brown and nothing else.
10:16When they were a Swiss Army net offense, yes, Amon Ross St. Brown was great.
10:19But, boy, that running game was a hammer.
10:21Maybe it's just Laporta not being able to be that guy over the middle that you can trust and dominate against linebackers.
10:25But something is amiss there, no doubt about it.
10:27Thanksgiving Day continues, 4.30 p.m. Eastern, Kansas City and Dallas.
10:31This look-ahead line, Joe, is 4.5 Kansas City.
10:34We're down to three at just about every outlet now and seven out of every ten tickets coming in on the Dallas Cowboys.
10:40A total, 51.5 to 52.5, depending on where you're shopping at here.
10:43This is an interesting handicap.
10:45Both of these teams needed a comeback.
10:47But I don't know if we're getting that bump like, ooh, the Cowboys have saved their season.
10:51Understand this about Kansas City.
10:52That's a different type of football team now, Joe, that we've used to being over the past couple years.
10:57They gave it to Kareem Hunt 30 times last week.
10:59Pacheco is supposed to come back.
11:01I see Kansas City more now of, hey, you know what?
11:03We're not a three-play, 68-yard-and-a-touchdown team.
11:06We're an 11-play-drive team that we can go and hand the football off.
11:10And I think that helps the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.
11:12They're the favorite here on the road.
11:15Yeah, they are.
11:16But let's talk about the Colts in Houston.
11:18No, I'm kidding.
11:19Here's the Chiefs.
11:20They are the only, Donnie, they are the only road favorite on the slate here.
11:25And interestingly enough, road favorites, 25-1 straight up on Thanksgiving since 2004.
11:3320-6 against the number.
11:36And it's usually one or the other, right?
11:38The Lions and the Chiefs have never gone 2-0 since, I believe, since 2001.
11:44Very rare that they go 2-0 together on the same day.
11:48I mean, how many years was Detroit terrible on Thanksgiving and they were just a laughingstock?
11:55But both of these teams came out of overtime games and teams on short rest off of overtime, Donnie.
12:02Not good.
12:0324-47-3 against the number in the last 20 years.
12:07So, you know, which one of these teams wins, which one of them covers, I think it's not a shock that the money is coming in on Dallas at this point.
12:16Yeah, take a look at the touchdown angles in this one.
12:19Javante Williams is the favorite here at minus 155.
12:22Rasheed Rice, minus 135.
12:23And everybody else is plus money.
12:25Travis Kelsey, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Kareem Hunt.
12:27By the way, like I always, if you're going to get a rushing touchdown, like Kareem Hunt is one of the best short goal line situations here.
12:32So Kareem Hunt plus 165 makes a lot of sense.
12:34I look at Kelsey plus 120.
12:36If you watch his games now, Joe, just if you just, you know, hot, hot hike, the ball snaps, just watch him.
12:42He runs like he is in quicksand at this point right now.
12:45I'm amazed he's still playing.
12:48He's a red zone guy, period, right?
12:50If they get in a red zone, he might be a target that they'll look at.
12:53They'll scheme something up for him.
12:56But he is not a guy that is going to change the game at all in any way, shape, or form.
13:01But I'm really worried about the whole CeeDee Lamb oops drops again.
13:06And there were a number of them in that game there that could have been huge.
13:12Pickens seems like the most reliable guy.
13:14And I think Dak is going to be looking for him a lot in this game.
13:17By the way, we also have the odds market here coming up here.
13:21The Chiefs to make or miss the playoffs, which is really interesting.
13:24Usually it's make or miss the Super Bowl at this point.
13:27They have the Cowboys.
13:29Then they take on the Texans.
13:31Then the Chargers here.
13:33I'm going to say no.
13:35Plus 186, Joe.
13:36I'm going to say no.
13:37I'm going to do it.
13:39I'm with you, Donnie.
13:41I think that's a, there's no more room for error, period.
13:44And, you know, they finally won a one-score game, but do they have another one in them?
13:50I'll tell you who has another one in them.
13:51It's Lamar Jackson.
13:52It's another injury.
13:53Find out where he's injured and how well he can play on Thursday night.
13:57Thursday night football.
13:58Yeah, we get a Thursday night football game every single week.
14:01Thanksgiving edition?
14:02Absolutely.
14:03Cincinnati and Baltimore.
14:04And maybe a couple weeks ago, you know, maybe, let's go six to eight.
14:08Oh, this could be a monster game.
14:09Joe Burrow shooting the comeback on Thanksgiving, saving the season for Cincinnati.
14:12I don't think there's any season saving here.
14:14Quite frankly, Baltimore has not been all that impressive.
14:16But with the collapse of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore's right back in it to win their division.
14:21They are favored by seven points on Thursday night and a total here of 51 and a half.
14:27Burrow is back.
14:28Tee Higgins probably won't be there.
14:29Jamar Chase will be there.
14:30But Lamar Jackson, toe, ankle, hamstring, groin, knee.
14:35What is it here?
14:36Sits out of practice yesterday trying to get ready for that short week.
14:38You look at that Ravens offense.
14:40That isn't clicking either, Joe.
14:42Well, it's not.
14:45And, you know, what kind of rust are we going to get from Burrow?
14:49What it's there are so many unknowns in this game.
14:51But one thing I can tell you is that I was impressed with the defensive effort by Cincinnati last week there.
14:59I thought they laid it all.
15:01Where is that defense been?
15:02I think if they play to that level, given the injuries and nothing about this Ravens offense looks like it's in sync.
15:12It looks like if you we were laughing about, you know, Travis Kelsey looking at quicksand.
15:17You know, Derrick Henry does not look like it looks like the mileage is starting to wear on him, too, as the season goes on.
15:23So, I don't know.
15:25This is another one where I don't necessarily love the defenses, but I don't know how much I can trust the offenses in this game either, Donnie.
15:35I don't trust Lamar, and I don't know what we're going to get from Joe Burrow.
15:39I really don't.
15:40Yeah, take a look at Baltimore.
15:42Let me just see if I can bring up their practice report quickly.
15:44It doesn't have it listed here, but there are some banged up guys, which includes Lamar Jackson.
15:48But you're right about this.
15:49Coming back from an injury, do we just get Joe Burrow, MVP, all-pro guy who can take his team to the Super Bowl?
15:54Or is it, hey, Joe, you don't have one of your wide receivers.
15:57You know, you're going to be getting a lot of heat from Baltimore's defense.
15:59Let's hand it off a little bit more because you do have, you know, a couple options now in the backfield that Chase Brown, he's had a couple good weeks here on the ground.
16:06Maybe you start to filter that through.
16:07But I look at the totals, Joe, and say I probably, again, lean towards the under.
16:12Usually say, wait a second, Cincinnati's defense is terrible.
16:14Baltimore penciled them in for 30.
16:15This team has not looked all that good on explosive plays.
16:19And you're right.
16:19Derrick Henry was.
16:20Hand the football off against a bad football team.
16:22That's 21 carries for 168 yards, two touchdowns, and the play action works, and everybody's open.
16:27That hasn't been the case.
16:28You look at some of the passing props in this game.
16:30Joe Lamar, 234-1⁄2.
16:32Joe Burrow, 251-1⁄2.
16:34Expectations are Joe Burrow's going to come back slinging it.
16:38Yeah, you're right.
16:39The night game on Thanksgiving, 12-6 to the under since 2006.
16:45So, yes, it's unders might be the way to look, especially with this game.
16:49And if that's the case, you know, I tend to look at those passing props for both of these guys and think,
16:56we might be overestimating what exactly we're going to get here on this Thanksgiving night game.
17:01That's for sure.
17:03Yeah, some of those receiving props, too.
17:04Like Jamar Chase, 92-1⁄2 coming back here.
17:07Now, granted, if T. Higgins is down, maybe he gets more targets.
17:09Zay Flowers, 65-1⁄2.
17:11Mark Andrews, 37-1⁄2.
17:13And then we'll wait to see some of those secondary options that are going to pop up for Cincinnati all throughout the week.
17:17But if we do look at the rushing props here, you're not getting any discounts here out of Derrick Henry.
17:2190-1⁄2.
17:22Chase Brown, 59-1⁄2.
17:24Lamar Jackson, you see Lamar Jackson, 25-1⁄2.
17:27He's like, boom.
17:27Let me just pencil that one in as an easy one.
17:29That's not the case in this spot here.
17:31So, I'm interested to see what we get.
17:33And also, it is a short week.
17:35Derrick Henry is not 22 years old anymore.
17:3790-1⁄2.
17:37How many carries does he get or does he split some time with Keaton Mitchell and some of the other backs?
17:43I think he's going to split.
17:44I think they have to split some time with him because he doesn't look like the same explosive Derrick Henry.
17:50He's going to get some opportunities if they get into the red zone.
17:54We know that, Donnie.
17:55So, from that standpoint, it seems logical that we may want to back him with an anytime touchdown.
18:01But, you know, Cincinnati, how many times did they turn back the Giants at the goal line last week?
18:06So, this is going to be very interesting.
18:09I don't see a ton of points in this game.
18:11I really don't.
18:13Yeah, Rashad Bateman's been down for a couple weeks.
18:15But I don't see the practice report popping up just yet at this point to see if he's on his way back from that ankle injury.
18:20But it's almost like you take a look at the touchdown market.
18:23And, yes, Derrick Henry, you think, is going to score at least minus 230.
18:25Like, last night, 340, 300 for McCaffrey.
18:28You knew he was probably going to score, and he did.
18:30But paying that price point was crazy.
18:32By the way, at the halftime, if you've got McCaffrey at a touchdown price, Joe, it's plus 125.
18:36And he did score in the second half, so that would have been a cash-in plus-money ticket.
18:39If you're looking to do that double bounce at tight end, Mark Andrews plus 100 for a touchdown.
18:44Isaiah likely plus 220 for a touchdown.
18:46Lamar's going to throw a touchdown.
18:47We could probably agree on that.
18:49And he likes those tight ends in the red zone.
18:51He does, and I think Andrews is a pretty solid bet at plus-money there.
18:58He'll go to old reliable when, you know, push comes to shove there inside the 10-yard line.
19:03So I do like that anytime touchdown prop.
19:07The others, you know, you would think Jamar Chase wants, hey, just throw me the ball, Joe.
19:12Just throw me the ball as many times as you can.
19:15You know, it's a little chalky, but if anybody's scoring, it's likely him for Cincinnati.
19:20Yeah.
19:21Yeah, a little toe issue there for Lamar.
19:23We'll see if he gets back and how healthy he can be.
19:25But he hasn't been the old Lamar Jackson, which, again, you get older in the football.
19:28And you take a lot of beatings over the years by running it.
19:30It's going to slow you down.
19:31Those little injuries are going to creep up here.
19:33The Philadelphia Eagles, their offense needs to creep up.
19:3621 points on the board against the Dallas Cowboys.
19:38Didn't score the rest of the game, which was 40 total minutes of real-time action, which is ridiculous.
19:43They're favored by seven against the Chicago Bears.
19:4544 and a half.
19:46Some cold, a little bit blustery conditions in Philadelphia.
19:49But this should be a good one.
19:50The Eagles getting a lot of respect at minus seven, two, eight, and three football teams,
19:54Joe.
19:55Yeah.
19:56And again, it's not like the offenses here.
20:00And an amazing job by Ben Johnson and Chicago.
20:04But my goodness, it's been a lot of things have bounced their way here.
20:11And you've got a Philadelphia team now that feels that they let one get away there in Dallas.
20:16They go back home.
20:17Yes, it's a short week.
20:19Historically, Donnie, Jalen Hurts as a favorite, 30 and four straight up at home.
20:25Yeah.
20:26That's a pretty good trend.
20:28Again, Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, usually this is a really good spot to back them.
20:33Looking on FanDuel right now, Joe.
20:35Flip a coin on this one.
20:36I'll give you a free bet.
20:37Jalen Hurts, 213 and a half.
20:38Caleb Williams, 213 and a half.
20:40Which quarterback would you take in this game, over or under?
20:43Jalen Hurts, I'd have to go over.
20:48I think he's got a big game coming up here.
20:50I think there's going to be a lot of that throw it up to Devontae Smith or A.J. Brown
20:56and let them come down with it.
20:58Speaking of some quick touchdown props, if you do think he throws it up, Joe,
21:01plus 150 for A.J., plus 180 for Devontae Smith.
21:05And also, a minus money number on two touchdown passes for Jalen Hurts in this game.
21:09He's probably going to throw it to somebody.
21:10And they only throw it to three people.
21:12Nobody else gets any looks between those two wide receivers and Dallas Goddard.
21:17Broncos taking on the Washington Commanders, Joe.
21:20We'll take a look at some of those Sunday games.
21:22This one's actually a Sunday night football game from Washington.
21:26Heavy favorite for Denver at six and a half.
21:27I'm still seeing Marcus Mariota listed at quarterback.
21:30I haven't checked, again, the latest practice reports,
21:33which will start to be flowing in the next couple days.
21:35Do we have a chance to get Jaden Daniels back at this one?
21:38Are they really going to slow play this?
21:39Because if you do put him back in, the Denver defense, probably at the defense, you want to see him play.
21:44No?
21:44I agree.
21:47I would slow play this new problem.
21:52And I'd have no problem doing that.
21:55But again, same situation.
21:56He is your starting quarterback, much like Burrow.
21:59I get why they would want to put him out there.
22:02But, you know, you also have teams like, you know, Minnesota here who are inventing injuries for J.J. McCarthy not to play him.
22:10Can't they do that for a guy that can actually play like Jaden Daniels, who I've been screaming for how long now?
22:16Like, do not ruin your franchise quarterback right now.
22:20This team is going nowhere in a hurry to commanders.
22:24Just chalk it up to a lost season and move on.
22:26Yeah, it's what it seems like.
22:28And again, it's not as if, hey, we're going to get you back against the Raiders.
22:30Nice little spot there.
22:31Get you going.
22:32Like, that Denver Broncos team is loaded for bear and is a bunch of guys that are sack artists.
22:37Not a great thing to say.
22:38You know what?
22:39Might be a little bit rusty and I'm going to be under attack in the pocket.
22:42Not a great look there.
22:43But the favorite here on the road, the Denver Broncos.
22:45See if they win that 43 and a half as a total as well.
22:48We are looking at the Rams as maybe the best team in the NFL if the season ended today.
22:51The number one overall seed in the NFC.
22:54They're going to take on Carolina, who now is a short work week, flying back home, getting 10 and a half points.
23:00And I know you're not supposed to go week to week and just say, oh, how did they look last week?
23:04But that wasn't an encouraging performance out of Carolina.
23:06And the Rams absolutely detonated the Buccaneers.
23:10We might be looking at a blow up, but a 10-point road favorite.
23:13Hard to lay sometimes, isn't it?
23:15It is, but my goodness, is there anything redeeming about what we saw from Carolina last night who had been, you know, good as a dog, had been good on the road.
23:28They hadn't been great at home.
23:30But this Rams team, it's just not a train I want to jump in front of right now here, Donnie.
23:36They are humming on both sides.
23:38I mean, special teams, defense, offense.
23:42They're getting what they want.
23:43And, you know, they got pretty banged up again last night, the Carolina Panthers did.
23:50So, not me.
23:52I would only lay it in this one.
23:55By the way, how about these statistics coming in on the 2025 Rams?
23:59The NFL leader in passing touchdowns.
24:01Oh, that's Matthew Stafford with 30.
24:03How about the NFL leader in receiving touchdowns?
24:05Oh, that's Devontae Adams at 12.
24:07The NFL leader in receptions.
24:09Pukanuku at 80.
24:10The NFL's best scoring defense at 16.3.
24:14That's a Rams squad this year, Joe.
24:16Loaded.
24:18Yeah, they are loaded.
24:20And Sean McVay is just out coaching and out scheming everybody that steps on the field with them.
24:27So, yeah, it's you got to love the direction they're heading.
24:31Maybe now is the time to start looking at the Cal sheet future markets for the Rams being a Super Bowl champion.
24:37Yeah, maybe so at this point right now.
24:40They looked the part.
24:41Good coach.
24:42Great quarterback.
24:43Great offense.
24:43Good defense.
24:44Pass rushing specialist here.
24:46They just need to stay at home in that dome.
24:48Big loss by the Philadelphia Eagles against the Cowboys, which opens that door.
24:51They don't want to go to Philly.
24:52They can't win there.
24:53They might be able to win at home.
24:54Even though the Eagles crushed them at SoFi last year.
24:57But that's when the Eagles could run the football, which they can't do anymore.
25:00How about running the football this weekend?
25:02Indy didn't do that much of that on the road against Kansas City and blew a double-digit lead.
25:06Houston comes to town as one of the best defenses here and looks like getting C.J. Stroud back.
25:11However, the look-ahead line, Joe, was 3-1⁄2.
25:14You see this graphic?
25:15It's now up to 4-1⁄2 as a favorite for Indy and a total of 44-1⁄2.
25:19Stroud is back after Mills said, got you covered, kid.
25:22Let me pick up a couple wins before I hand the football back to you.
25:27Who'd have thunk that we'd even have this conversation?
25:29We all thought Indy was running away with that division just, you know, a month ago.
25:35And that was nobody's catching him, especially Houston, whose offense is still suspect at best.
25:41What are we going to get from C.J. Stroud?
25:43I don't know.
25:44But Indy going home in that place there, it feels like this might—
25:51I get why the line is moving in their direction, Donnie, because if they're playing from behind,
25:57which I think they will be as good as that defense has been,
26:00I do think that is a revamped Indy defense as well.
26:04Where are the points from the Houston Texans coming from?
26:08I would only—lower scoring game, but I like Indy at home to get it done.
26:13Two defenses might be able to get after it here.
26:15And, yes, that 44-1⁄2 is true.
26:17It's like, oh, man, you should be able to take the over.
26:18We don't know what C.J. Stroud we're getting at this point right now.
26:21That's not an explosive offense, as Joe points out.
26:23And also the running game, probably going to get cranked up here for Indianapolis.
26:27Are we having a sacrificial land game on Sunday, Joe?
26:29The Minnesota Vikings on the road, basically out of the playoffs at this point, season over,
26:34versus the Seattle Seahawks.
26:35McCarthy listed as the start—he's not playing.
26:37If he's in concussion protocol, which is how bad he's played,
26:39they're not rushing him to get him back, even if he has a concussion or no concussion.
26:44Rosmer would be the starting quarterback.
26:46That line goes from 7-1⁄2 to 10-1⁄2.
26:49It's probably not really a downgrade at this point, a quarterback,
26:52but you don't make any money betting rookie quarterbacks in a tough environment
26:54against a good football team.
26:57One team's playing for the playoffs and possibly a Super Bowl championship in Seattle, if you will.
27:01Minnesota's playing for—it's a holiday weekend, and maybe I ate too much on Thursday.
27:05I don't feel like playing on the road.
27:06A lot of points, but I don't know if I trust a young quarterback on the road up against the 12s.
27:13Yeah, no.
27:14And what, Sam Donald revenge game?
27:16What are you thinking here?
27:19Might get—might be throwing for a few touchdown passes.
27:23Yeah, I would only look at Seattle here.
27:26I do think Minnesota at this point—it wasn't a great effort against the Packers.
27:32If you can't get up for the Packers, why do you care about a game for Seattle on the road?
27:36Yeah, no.
27:37It would only be lay it or pass here at this point.
27:40By the way, Jackson Smith and Jigba, I remember, you know, talking on the early line when the numbers started to come out.
27:46You know, Joe, he was listed at 750 yards for his over-under on the season.
27:51Because the thought was, well, now he's the number one they'll key on him,
27:55and Sam Darnold was somehow a downgrade against, you know, what you had last year taking on Geno Smith.
27:59Not the case.
28:00He's been flat-out sensational.
28:03Short passing game, intermediate passing game, deep passing game.
28:06He's wide open all of the time.
28:08I think it's a fun team to watch, but also, how good can he be, and can he get to, Joe?
28:132,000 yards receiving on the season.
28:16Who would have thought JSN having this dominant of a season?
28:21Unbelievable.
28:21You just got to get rid of Lockett, right?
28:23And you were good to go, I guess, here.
28:27And boy, oh boy, it's been eye-opening.
28:30And the fact that Sam Darnold and company are the ones that are delivering it.
28:35And I've always said, right, quarterbacks make receivers.
28:38Receivers don't make quarterbacks.
28:40I don't know.
28:41I might have to think about this one.
28:42Is this Sam Darnold doing it?
28:44Or is this, you know, is just he making Sam Darnold look that much better?
28:49It's an interesting combo, that's for sure.
28:51It really is, when you boil it down to, because we do know Sam Darnold.
28:56Like, it's like, hey, he had a great season last year.
28:59Looked like, you know, the glass slipper broke late in the season.
29:03Final game of the year, everything on the line against Detroit, hammered.
29:05Then you get to the playoffs, you go on the road on a neutral site.
29:08If you remember that for the L.A. Fires, they got crushed by the Rams.
29:12And now you say, all right, well, Sam Darnold's having a good season.
29:14But then we did see the four interceptions, Sam Darnold, against the Rams.
29:17The good and the bad, we'll see how that turns out.
29:19But the Seattle Seahawks, Joe, a 6-1 price to win the conference.
29:24Eagles are a 3-1. Rams are a plus 2-10.
29:27San Francisco, which won yesterday, 16-1.
29:29They're sort of that team that doesn't get a lot of respect talking about it.
29:32But their high end is very good when they're good.
29:37Yeah, well, very good.
29:38In fact, I mean, you said it, right?
29:40Four interceptions, and they still almost won that game, Donnie.
29:43So that tells you everything you need to know about how good a team
29:48this Seahawks group really is, especially defensively.
29:52They can run the ball.
29:53They can play outdoors.
29:55They're not a dome team.
29:57I think Seattle might be worth a look here in the future markets for sure.
30:02Yeah, we look at, like, the Rams.
30:04And again, they are the best team right now in the NFC.
30:06And quite frankly, maybe the best team in the NFL.
30:07Playing great football is still a long way to go.
30:10Injuries do happen.
30:11We get that.
30:11The Eagles sitting there at a 3-1 price.
30:13We're riding high off that defense, that collapse.
30:16They have a really big game on Friday against the Bears.
30:19And I'm not saying it's, hey, because the Eagles are going to win their division.
30:21But when you talk about Super Bowl, they need that win against them.
30:24But also, if the Bears come into Philadelphia and improve to 9-3,
30:28that's one of those teams that look at 22-1 to win the NFC.
30:31You start to buy into those marketplaces here.
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