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00:00Sunday afternoon down in Jacksonville, a monster game in the AFC South.
00:04That's the Colts taking on the Jaguars here.
00:06Broken leg Daniel Jones says, I'm going to gut this out.
00:10But if you look at the market, that look ahead line was around a field goal favorite for Indy.
00:13That's no longer the case.
00:14It's down to one and a half at most outlets and a total of 47 and a half.
00:19Rain is in the forecast right now for all game long.
00:22We'll see how that one plays out.
00:23Joe, what's your spread line between the Colts and the Jags?
00:26Yeah, I mean, flip favorite scenario here, right?
00:29Donnie is what we could be looking at when it's all said and done.
00:32And the Colts as high as three, three and a half on the look ahead line.
00:36But my goodness, Indy with the broken fibula, whatever Daniel Jones is dealing with.
00:43And all of a sudden teams have figured out, take away Jonathan Taylor.
00:47And there's not a lot of offense right there.
00:49And the market sees it and they are listening.
00:52I'm not sold on Jacksonville just yet, but kudos to them for doing it.
00:57But this feels like the kind of game where is Trevor Lawrence in this kind of big spot?
01:03Can he tell which team to throw the ball to?
01:06Because with 11 interceptions on the year, Donnie, I'm a little worried about trusting him in this kind of spot.
01:12Yeah, we'll see.
01:13Big game showdown there on Sunday.
01:15Another big game that's going to take place tonight in Motown, Detroit.
01:18It's the Dallas Cowboys in town to take on the Detroit Lions.
01:21A huge game in the NFC.
01:22That look ahead line had Detroit around a five and a half price point.
01:26But now we're down to a three as a favorite for the Lions.
01:29Lions come into this game banged up.
01:30The red hot Dallas Cowboys getting themselves off the carpet.
01:33This almost feels like an elimination game here in the NFC.
01:37The loser going to have a tough time making the playoffs.
01:39The winner gets another springboard here.
01:41But also, Joe, eight out of every 10 tickets coming in on the Cowboys for this one.
01:44What's your spread line?
01:46Yeah, it looks like pros and Joes might be on the same side in this one here with the Cowboys.
01:51But the total, Donnie, it opened up 53 and a half.
01:54It sat 54 and a half all week long.
01:58The highest total of the season so far.
02:01But now we're starting to see the buyback.
02:03That's starting to come back to us now.
02:0553 and a half is what's showing.
02:08And Donnie, keep in mind, Detroit's weapons.
02:12They don't have a lot of them anymore for this game here.
02:15So maybe that's why the under money is hitting.
02:17It's interesting because it would be fun to watch this thing play out.
02:20But this isn't that high-raging offense for Detroit coming in tonight.
02:24It's a little bit crippled.
02:24We'll see how they perform against the Cowboys in a dome and see if we get some points.
02:28More NFL news and notes coming up next right here on the early line.
02:31NFL is king.
02:32I don't think anybody, you know, comes in with arguments against that.
02:35Like, no, no, it's baseball.
02:36No, it's hockey.
02:37No, it's the NBA.
02:38The viewership numbers in the NFL are incredible.
02:40But I have to tell you this.
02:41Again, a little bit of a grain of salt.
02:42The NFL is as popular right now as it ever has been.
02:45And, yes, we have to understand that Nielsen made a correction to their numbers.
02:48And, you know, we're starting to see it.
02:50Hey, Kaitlin Clark hasn't played the WNBA.
02:52We have the best ratings we've ever had.
02:53We don't need her.
02:54Well, there's a bump there.
02:55I remember when I was in high school going into college,
02:57there was a bump where you got more on the SAT score than you did the year before.
03:01Like, hey, man, everybody's smarter this year.
03:03No, it's not.
03:03They gave you an extra 50, 60, 70 points on a curved system.
03:07Take a look at the NFL viewership numbers.
03:09And if you don't believe me, here we go.
03:11Packers-Lions, 47.7 million.
03:14Most-watched early Thanksgiving game in history.
03:16Oh, that's interesting.
03:17All right, well, that might have been just a good game.
03:19Sure.
03:19Chiefs and the Cowboys, 57.2 million.
03:22Most-watched regular season game ever.
03:24Boy, that's really interesting there.
03:25They have two of them.
03:26But what about the night game here?
03:28Who's a blowout?
03:29Yeah, but the Bengals-Ravens, 28.4 million.
03:31Most-watched Thanksgiving night game.
03:33Understand this.
03:34Yes, the NFL is popular, but we are getting a bump from the new ratings.
03:37Take this year's slate and go ahead and look at next year's slate, and then we'll get a
03:42better opinion on who's actually rising or going, because it's rare to say, one day in
03:46the NFL, every game you watched was the highest-rated game you could possibly watch.
03:52There is no bigger scam than the rating system here.
03:58Yes, correct.
03:59There's literally no competition.
04:02You have to take Nielsen's word for it, no matter what they say.
04:05It's just, they got it.
04:06That's it.
04:07They're the only game in town, and they're paying people, what, a dollar to participate?
04:12I'm like, come on.
04:13The whole thing is absurd.
04:15They can either make it the most-watched, make it the least-watched, and nobody will know
04:20any better in between.
04:22But if you have the kind of money and the backing the NFL does, I guess if they pick
04:26up the phone and say, Donnie, this is going to be the highest-rated game that we've had
04:30ever, guess what's going to happen?
04:31The numbers will reflect it.
04:33It's a great, you know, it's funny you bring that up, because we were hearing the groundswell
04:38days ahead of time.
04:40This could be the most-watched, how do you know?
04:42Oh, yes.
04:42What do you mean, you know?
04:43What, everybody just decided they're going to postpone dinner and make sure they have
04:46this game on to watch it?
04:47Like, back in the 80s, like, hands across America, like, everybody be in the same spot
04:50and hold hands here.
04:51Stop it at this point.
04:53Look, again, the NFL is king.
04:54The ratings are very good.
04:55But let's wait till next year.
04:57Or maybe they bump it up again to keep the, what is there, like a dot-com bubble right now with ratings?
05:01It's like, whoa, it's not really 57.2.
05:03It's actually 32.2 at this point.
05:06We'll find out next year.
05:07But Joe is correct on this.
05:08We have to believe one service who can do whatever they want.
05:10Who knows, Joe?
05:11Are there checks being sent to the heads of the news?
05:13Now, look, our CBA is coming up.
05:16You got to give us good ratings this year.
05:17We can double down.
05:18Because the worst-case scenario, technically, is like the WNBA advertiser is like, are those
05:22real numbers or not?
05:23Are they bumped up?
05:23Because they're saying, hey, look at the ratings we're getting.
05:26We want 10 times more money.
05:27And the next year, you go like, why are our ratings actually down from the year before
05:30at this point?
05:31We'll find out sooner than later.
05:33I'll tell you about ratings.
05:34Mike Tomlin's rating in Pittsburgh, quite low right now, where they're talking about
05:37him going back to college.
05:39Let's take a look at some of these past comments for Tomlin actually talking about college.
05:44Mike, at any point in your coaching career, did you ever have an interest or express an
05:49interest in being a head coach in the college game?
05:52And do you have any idea how that may or may not have led to folks like Ryan and Doug
05:57Whaley and Carson Palmer connecting you to some college jobs?
06:00Hey, guys, I don't have time for that speculation.
06:03I mean, that's a joke to me.
06:05I got one of the best jobs in all of professional sport.
06:09Why would I have any interest in coaching college football?
06:12That'll be the last time that I address it.
06:15And not only today, but moving forward.
06:17Never say never, but never.
06:21Okay?
06:21Anybody else got any questions about any college jobs?
06:25There's not a booster with a big enough blank check.
06:28Anyone else?
06:31All right.
06:32Anybody asking Sean Payton about that?
06:34You know, anybody asking Andy Reid about stuff like that?
06:37Yeah.
06:38Oh, he's about to get asked by it again, because now you have previous players and stalwarts
06:47in that organization in the past going, hey, he'd be a good fit at Penn State.
06:51Let's make that happen, Joe.
06:53Somebody's got it.
06:53Come on.
06:54If I am in that press room, that's the first question he's getting.
06:57Any rumors that you're going, any truth of the rumors that you are going to Penn State,
07:02coach?
07:02What do you think, Joe?
07:04Yeah.
07:04Donnie, before I had seen that clip there, I would have said, there's no way he's going
07:09back to college.
07:10Now that I've seen that clip, he's going back to college.
07:13He's probably already half a foot in the door at the Penn State job.
07:17Just saying.
07:18I'm just saying.
07:19And that was a whole lot of energy and effort to dispel a question that a simple, yeah, no,
07:26next question would have subvised.
07:28And by the way, when he says there's no check big enough from a booster, Penn State is in
07:33a tough spot right now.
07:35And if he goes, I make $15 million with the Steelers, and they go, we'll pay you $18 million,
07:41and it'll be a guaranteed contract for five years, and you can do whatever you want, that
07:45might not be a bad option.
07:46You stay in state, you go to Penn State, and away you go at this point.
07:50We're going to talk more football, which means Detroit and Dallas.
07:53Thursday night action.
07:55Thursday night football from Motown.
07:58That's the Dallas Cowboys, and it's the Detroit Lions.
08:00We did a quick preview there in some of the spread lines, taking a look at the advantages
08:04and disadvantages of this game.
08:05But understand this.
08:07The hot team in the NFL right now, and you can just look at the records, they're not that
08:10good, but how are they playing as of late?
08:11The Dallas Cowboys, much better team than they were just a month ago, and looking to extend
08:16that winning streak tonight in Detroit, and the public is backing them.
08:20You saw those opening lines before this previous week's game, five and a half as a favorite
08:24towards Detroit.
08:25Detroit got a little bit banged up and lost on Thanksgiving.
08:28What do we see from the Dallas Cowboys?
08:30Victory, victory, victory, and away they go.
08:33This total now listed at 54 and a half in a line.
08:35That's down to three points as a favorite for the Lions.
08:39Must win situation, Joe, for each one of these teams.
08:41But one team coming in hot and healthy, one chunk team coming in not so hot and banged
08:48up.
08:48That's the Lions.
08:50The Lions have a lot of issues here.
08:53And I know, folks, it's easy.
08:55Everyone wants to be like, well, yeah, no, they're going to flip a switch.
08:59And no, they're not.
09:01And the first giant red flag for me, Donnie, was, and, you know, keep in mind, you think
09:07it's easy to replace coordinators every couple of years, Donnie?
09:11Like, you not only lost your OC, but you lost your DC as well, people seem to forget.
09:18And that is why Detroit's defense, Donnie, have you noticed?
09:21They always seem to be playing from behind now.
09:24They've allowed 13 or more first half points in four of their last five games, Donnie.
09:29And you know who they've played?
09:30The Commanders, the Vikings, the Giants, who show Eagles, Packers, offenses that are not
09:39the strong suit.
09:40And yet, I don't think any one of those teams holds a candle offensively to the Cowboys here.
09:46And if they become, if they're down again early in this game, Donnie, they have decided
09:52that they're going to try to run the ball more than pass the ball.
09:55Have you noticed that also with Jared Goff and Dan Campbell?
09:58Because he knows his offensive line, very suspect.
10:02And Jared Goff could be a sitting guy.
10:04He doesn't have Amon St.
10:06Brown anymore.
10:07He doesn't have Laporte.
10:09They are very limited right now, what they can do offensively.
10:13And like I said a couple of weeks ago, Donnie, how many 80-yard Jamar Gibbs runs are going
10:17to bail you out?
10:18How many more does he have in him before teams are like, yeah, that's not going to happen?
10:23And that could very well happen again here tonight.
10:25Yeah, Dallas doesn't have a great secondary.
10:29So if you had Amon Ross St.
10:30Brown available along with Jamison Williams, that's a really good threat where that play
10:33action pass can really kick butt.
10:35And also understand this, Amon Ross St.
10:37Brown is like that safety blanket.
10:39He's open on every single play and they scheme him open.
10:42He's a fantastic wideout.
10:43He's not there.
10:45So now you have Kennedy in the slot and to slot on the outside there, it's like, what
10:48are we doing then?
10:49Okay, let's go back to our tight end.
10:51Ross Dwelly?
10:51I mean, there's nothing out there as opposed to Jared Goff has to be perfect.
10:56His wide receivers have to line up.
10:57And if you do have a bad secondary, which Dallas does, you roll coverage to Williams and you
11:01force two guys that aren't used to beating anybody into beating you.
11:04And then you leave it up to Jamar Gibbs, who's sensational, might be the best back in
11:07football, most explosive.
11:09But if you know the run is coming, you can have eight men in the box.
11:12You can't do that when you have a healthy wide receiving core for the Detroit Lions.
11:16Let's see what happens on that offensive side tonight, which then puts the quarterbacks for us
11:20tonight, Joe, into focus.
11:22If we're looking at the passing props for each one of these guys live, 252 and a half for
11:26Jared Goff.
11:26Dak Prescott, 269 and a half.
11:29If I'm looking at those two totals for me, Joe, you understand like Dak and the Dallas
11:33Cowboys, wonderful wideouts.
11:35He's cooking at quarterback.
11:37He probably gets that because their MO is we're going to pass, pass, we're going to pass
11:40some more and you just can't stop us here.
11:42But from a Detroit perspective, you should look at Jared Goff and say, yeah, high total in
11:46this game.
11:46You have to counter.
11:47But I don't see that as a point, Joe.
11:49If Jared Goff throws for 270 in this game, that means Williams went absolutely all for
11:54one of those other two wide receivers stepped up.
11:56I look for Jared Goff.
11:57If Detroit wants to win this game, I don't think he can go over 252 and a half, which means
12:01that running game really boosted them tonight in their game.
12:06They're going to have to, which I think is also a reason, Donnie, why we're starting to
12:10see the under money come in, right?
12:12We're starting to see this was as high as 54 and a half, Donnie, and that's OK if you
12:18had the full complement of weapons here.
12:21But if Detroit's game plan is, listen, we've got to run the ball, run the ball, run the
12:26ball, and maybe take a couple of shots down the field.
12:29The only problem is you're taking on a Dallas defense that the minute they got Quinn and
12:35Williams, you know what, Donnie, since he's gotten there, they're a top five team against
12:39the run.
12:40You are not running against the Dallas Cowboys front there.
12:43That's the problem.
12:44And you tried to bring a guy off the couch who retired a year ago, Donnie.
12:51You tried to bring a dude off the couch to come back and help you, and he couldn't pass
12:56the physical.
12:57That's the state of the offense right now for Detroit.
13:01And I don't think it's going to get any better anytime soon.
13:04And styles make fights, right?
13:06This right now, tonight, this is an issue with the way, the style that they play defense,
13:13Dallas, and offense.
13:14It's an issue for this Detroit team right now.
13:17It is.
13:18You're right about this, because they are really weak at left guard and center, which
13:21a guy that retired, that's like, I just don't have it in me anymore.
13:23Like, dude, you got to come back.
13:25Like, we're really struggling.
13:26And the dude tries to come back, and it's like, whoa, you have a torn hamstring off of
13:30the bone.
13:31You cannot play and come back to it.
13:33So tough time where they were looking to get that boost.
13:35They're not going to get it.
13:36Switch it over here, Joe, to the wide receiver position.
13:38Take a look at this.
13:40I don't know if I've ever seen this behind, because sometimes you're like, oh, it's a
13:42low price, 39 and a half, 41 and a half.
13:45CeeDee Lamb's receiving prop, 82 and a half.
13:48George Pickens receiving prop, 82 and a half.
13:51And then Jameson Williams on the other side, 83 and a half.
13:55Secondary guys are going to have to step up, but they're basically telling you now, George
13:58Pickens is every bit as good as CeeDee Lamb.
14:00It should be priced accordingly now.
14:02Well, and I think it's a great matchup for Pickens, I think, because listen, nobody runs
14:09better play action than the Dallas Cowboys do, right?
14:13They, A, can run the ball, and you have to respect that.
14:17And B, you still have a banged up secondary for this Detroit Lions team.
14:22So pick your poison.
14:23You're going to double team CeeDee Lamb, and then you're going to leave a backup on Pickens.
14:27I think Pickens, who, ironically enough, Donnie, his longest reception prop, which I believe
14:36the last nine games has been around 26 and a half, 27, he's gone over that in three straight
14:42and seven of the last nine.
14:44He is the big play guy.
14:45And against this secondary, I'd be looking to back him before I back CeeDee Lamb.
14:50Yeah, no, it's a fun prop to look at tonight because we're expecting points here.
14:56It's just a matter of which guy do you pick here?
14:58They're both high.
14:59It's not like, hey, one guy's 82 and a half, one guy's 30, hopefully gets targets.
15:01We're looking at equal targets with a legitimate chance for each one of those guys to get close
15:05to a hundred yards.
15:07If you look at the rushing props, Jameer Gibbs, 76 and a half as his total.
15:10Javante Williams for the Cowboys, 65 and a half.
15:13Secondary options, David Montgomery.
15:15I always find the interesting ones that Kavante Turpin is over four and a half rushing yards
15:19at plus 102.
15:20You know, like the sweep in a jet sweep.
15:22You just got to hope he gets five yards.
15:23But from the top of the heap there, Jameer Gibbs, again, Jameer Gibbs, 76 yards or less.
15:29Detroit's not winning this football game.
15:31I'm sorry.
15:33If it's going to take what it took against the Giants, where you got to hope he breaks
15:3880 yard runs, 85.
15:40That's not going to happen against this front of the Cowboys.
15:43They have been extremely, they are a night and day once Quinn and Williams showed up
15:48there and they got healthier in the secondary.
15:51And if I'm not mistaken, Diggs could be back tonight for the Cowboys in that secondary.
15:57Hey, let's see what happens here tonight.
15:59Dallas getting hot.
16:00Touchdown pay dirt market here.
16:02Jameer Gibbs, you ain't getting no discounts, Joe.
16:05Minus 240 for a touchdown.
16:07Javante Williams at a minus 135, minus 110 for Montgomery.
16:10Everybody else is plus money tonight.
16:12But I got to tell you, if it's plus 100 listed with free money, Jameer Gibbs is going to score,
16:18but always that minus 240 shade.
16:19Yoff Pickens and also CeeDee Lamb plus money at the wide receiver position for touchdowns
16:23tonight too, Joe.
16:25Page out of your book, Donnie, right?
16:26Take them both.
16:27Double them up.
16:28You're going to get fit.
16:29Double them up.
16:30Take them both.
16:31Because likely one of them is going to get a big touchdown.
16:34The other one is probably going to be targeted in the red zone.
16:37So, yep.
16:37Love it.
16:38Yeah, you look at the numbers in this game too, Joe.
16:41As we talked about, 78% of the tickets coming in on the Dallas Cowboys.
16:46Ooh, fade to public, fade to public.
16:48But the public and the Sharps might be lining up because, again, if you have a line that's
16:51closer to six, that's now sitting at three at game time.
16:53That means that money's coming in good and bad, pushing it lower and lower and lower.
16:57The only question's going to be, Joe, 54 and a half is a high total.
17:01But also keep in mind, hey, Donnie and Joe, Thursday night games are usually sloppy.
17:04Both of these teams played last Thursday.
17:06This is a full seven-game break right here, a seven-day break that you're getting.
17:10Do we have a clean night tonight?
17:11And also, does Dallas push more pressure on the Philadelphia Eagles?
17:16Really good slate of NFL games this weekend, no doubt about it, which we are going to touch
17:20on here.
17:21But we always like hot topics as well.
17:23Jerry Judy not running out of deep ball.
17:25Maybe Shadour Sanders thought he was going to keep running, but he thought maybe he should
17:28pull up a little bit.
17:29A little bit of a spat here, Joe.
17:31Let's take a look at a clip here for Jerry Judy talking about it.
17:34What I would have done different, I probably just, um, probably talked him off camera.
17:38Is that what?
17:39No, that's probably what I would have done different.
17:41You know, um, of course, I'm going to speak my mind and tell me what, um, and say what
17:46I need, what I see out there.
17:47Uh, but, you know, you know, it, what it is, footballing, man, just me and Shadour are
17:53good.
17:54But, you know, it's stuff like that happens.
17:56You know, y'all going to make it bigger than what it is, you know, because the media, you
17:59know, that's what y'all feed off of negativity, you know, but it is what it is.
18:03This is the life you live.
18:04So, you know, we move on from it.
18:07Um, and I live a real life, you know, so what happened around in this locker hole, you
18:12know, this real, not, not what's going on on social media and everything.
18:15So, yeah, it's your dog good.
18:16Everything's going good.
18:17We're great over here.
18:18What lightning rods, those Cleveland Browns, by the way, he is right about one thing.
18:24And I get like, Joe, you've played sports.
18:26You can have your best friend on the team who is a quarterback, miss you on a route.
18:30And you guys are going to blows on the sideline, furious with each other, and then dapping
18:34it up five minutes later.
18:35But we always tend to over-exaggerate things.
18:37And, you know, when you have Shadour Sanders as a quarterback, more eyes are on Cleveland
18:41than they probably should be.
18:43And people are going to pick up on that.
18:45But he's right.
18:45Like, look, we're going to get mad.
18:47I didn't run the right route.
18:48He didn't throw the right pass.
18:49We're going to be furious with each other, but hey, don't make too big a deal out of it.
18:53Well, and that's fine.
18:55And yes, but as long as everyone understands now, if it happens again this week or happens
19:01again next week, yeah, then you're going to have a serious problem with the media.
19:07So yeah, everyone's willing to give you a pass, but let's see if it happens again here, Donnie.
19:13It's like T.O. and Donovan.
19:14They were all good until they weren't all good on the sideline at this point.
19:17Something to keep an eye out for and watch out for.
19:19We'll see this weekend with the Cleveland Browns as a favorite.
19:22Oh, that's right.
19:23They're playing the Tennessee Titans.
19:24We'll get there in a moment.
19:25But another game in the AFC South, Indianapolis Colts taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
19:30This line opened up minus three point favorite for Indy.
19:33It's down to one and a half, a total 47 and a half.
19:35The Jaguars playing much better football now.
19:38And also the questions are Daniel Jones doesn't look like the same quarterback we saw in the
19:42first half of the season.
19:43Why?
19:43Well, one thing, he's got a broken leg that he's playing on, Joe.
19:46Does Indianapolis continue to fall?
19:48And can Jacksonville say, uh-uh, we're going to challenge for this division along with the
19:52Texans?
19:53Well, they've been doing it.
19:55I mean, ever since they've come out of their by, Donnie.
19:57I mean, Jacksonville has been rolling teams coming off, what, a four-game road trip?
20:02They went, I mean, it feels like forever since the last time they played a game at home.
20:07And yeah, and they've always been a thorn in the Colts' paw here.
20:13You know that, right?
20:14I think the Colts are 3-16-1 against the number versus Jacksonville.
20:20I mean, my goodness, I mean, nine different Colt quarterbacks are barely 500 against this
20:27Jags team.
20:28So, for whatever reason, the Jags have always had the Colts' number.
20:32We'll see if that continues this week.
20:34Yeah, we will see if that.
20:35I'll say, again, that's really hard to handicap now.
20:38But if you've watched the Minnesota Vikings over the past couple weeks, they have no offense.
20:43They have no answers at all.
20:44They have a boy genius that's supposed to be calling plays out here, young quarterbacks,
20:48weapons out the wazoo at wide receiver, and they can't move the football.
20:52Washington's coming to town this weekend.
20:54The line here is sitting at 1.5 to 2, depending on where you're shopping at, in the total of
20:5842.5.
21:00Washington's listed as to be determined quarterback.
21:02I don't think it's going to be Jaden Daniels.
21:04He hasn't been cleared for contact yet.
21:05They're not going to rush him back in a lost season.
21:07But Marcus Mariota has been more than serviceable here.
21:11If I look at this game, am I wrong to think the wrong team is favored?
21:15Honestly.
21:17Well, you can.
21:19I mean, listen, you're going to have a situation here, Donnie, where a lot of people just watched
21:23Minnesota get shut out, right?
21:26And everybody's going to be like, wow, when NFL teams get shut out, Donnie, right?
21:30Bounce back.
21:32And they wouldn't be wrong.
21:33I mean, historically, it's been a very good.
21:36In fact, I believe it's happened three other times this year where a team got shut out
21:41in the following game, 3-0 against the numbers.
21:44So I get it.
21:45But the problem is, none of them had J.J.
21:47McCarthy, Carson Wentz, or Max Brosmer as their quarterbacks.
21:52And quite honestly, as bad as Max Brosmer was last week, the last game we saw J.J.
21:57McCarthy play against Green Bay was equally as bad.
22:01So there is nothing redeeming about this offense here that makes you want to back at least
22:08Mariota and that off and that team.
22:11They showed me a little something in that game on Monday night there against Denver.
22:18They're not throwing in the towel.
22:20I expect them to get one here.
22:22Yeah, no doubt about it.
22:23And again, Terry McLaurin comes back and looks like he's the wideout that they've been hoping
22:27for all year long.
22:27That's an added incentive at wide receiver now where I just don't see, like Brosmer was
22:32so bad in that game.
22:33And imagine this, too, in a perfect world.
22:35Hey, we didn't really draft McCarthy.
22:37We're still going to keep Darnold.
22:38Like, they would be in the playoff race for Minnesota.
22:40That's how bad the quarterback play has been because Darnold hasn't been great every game.
22:44But trust me, Darnold is so much better than what you're getting out of the quarterback
22:47play for the Minnesota Vikings, no matter who you put back there.
22:50Buffalo, in an impressive performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers, ran the heck out of the
22:55football.
22:55They're going to take on Cincinnati, who was equally impressive on Thanksgiving night when
23:00they handled their business against the Baltimore Ravens.
23:02A five-and-a-half-point line from cold Buffalo, but it looks like T. Higgins on the men.
23:07Practiced yesterday.
23:08Hasn't clear concussion protocol, Joe, but the expectations he will by the end of the week.
23:13Full go since the offense.
23:14How about that?
23:16And keep an eye on this total, Donnie.
23:18It was 52-and-a-half, now 53-and-a-half.
23:21And it would not shock me if this goes off as the highest total of the season, because
23:27I don't see any under money coming.
23:29The weather there, cold, but not anything detrimental.
23:34Yeah.
23:34It's not looking to be terrible at all.
23:37And it's funny, the last time we—you would think, like, Burrow and Allen have gone at
23:42it over the years.
23:44They haven't done it since that game in 2023, which was the unfortunate situation with Tamar
23:50Hamlin there.
23:51But that's it, Donnie.
23:52I mean, they've only played a handful of time, and Burrow has gotten the better of them.
23:56We'll see.
23:57I think points are coming in this game.
23:59I think we should all buckle up, because this might be the most entertaining game of the
24:03week.
24:04Yeah, the one thing Joe is right about there in Buffalo, you look at, you know, sort of
24:08early December, 22 degrees, 30-mile-an-hour winds.
24:12You're not getting that.
24:12Like, 33 degrees and very light winds with no precipitation.
24:16The Buffalo Bills fans, they're coming to the game in shorts and a t-shirt ready to party
24:20for this one.
24:21A great game that's setting up on the docket this weekend, along with a lot of other games
24:25here, Joe.
24:25Do you know which section we're going to get to next?
24:27The Calci markets and some of those teams that you look at and say, oh, it's Rookie of the
24:31Year.
24:31Who could be a Player of the Year?
24:33We're going to chat next right here on the early line on a Thursday.
24:37Calci markets, baby.
24:38Let's get after it here and have some fun with some maybe entertaining spots that you're
24:43not paying attention to, Joe.
24:44I love this because it's more like that stock market movement.
24:47You don't have to actually pick the winner.
24:49What's all said and done?
24:50You can cash out when you hit price-appropriate numbers that you think, Joe.
24:54And we're talking now about the Offensive Rookie of the Year winner in the NFL.
24:59If we take a look at some of the markets right now listed, have a Tett McMillan, a 44% chance.
25:05Jackson Dart of the New York Giants, 24% chance.
25:09Egg Buka, superstar, young wide receiver for Tampa at 23%.
25:13And then Ty Warren and Travion Henderson and Quinchon Judkins.
25:16Now, these young players, some of them starting to come into their own, playing in high leverage
25:20situations down the rest of the season.
25:22You could get better numbers down the line if you secure a good price today.
25:27But to me, it does look like Tett McMillan might be the best of the best, the young rookie,
25:32talented wide receiver from Carolina.
25:3444% chance, Joe.
25:36You plunk down 100 there, pays back 228.
25:40Anybody on that list that you're looking for other than Tett McMillan as your Rookie of the Year?
25:45Well, I mean, Jackson Dart is interesting, right?
25:49Because he'll have an opportunity, obviously, the rest of the way to kind of put up some numbers.
25:55And if he has a couple of big games, yeah, why not?
25:59But, you know, I mean, the thing about all of those guys, though, Donnie, Jackson Dart,
26:03Clueda, is they've all missed some time here this year in games and on the season.
26:09They've all had a, you know, they've all missed some injuries and things along those lines.
26:13But right now, I mean, you know, we thought Ibuka was a hands down early in the season,
26:19right?
26:19He was going to run away with it.
26:21And then all of a sudden he went down and now you got a quarterback issue.
26:25The steady force here, believe it or not, has been Bryce Young.
26:29And I can't even believe I'm saying that, Donnie.
26:31But as long as Bryce Young and they are on the field together the rest of the way,
26:36he's a deserved favorite.
26:37And I think that number only continues to rise as now they're in a race there for a division crown,
26:44which is crazy if you think about it.
26:46Yeah.
26:47How about some of the favorites, Joe, to start the beginning of the year, right?
26:50It's like, ooh, Travis Hunter.
26:52Yeah, he's at a penny right now because why?
26:54Yeah.
26:54He's injured and he's not going to win it.
26:56Also, Cam Ward.
26:57Like, you were coming into the season going like, yeah, Tennessee's bad.
27:00Outside of injury, this kid's going to play the whole year.
27:02He's not even sniffing the Rookie of the Year market and he's played every single game this year for the Tennessee Titans.
27:08Just some wild things to look at.
27:09Also, if you're looking to catch some lightning in a bottle, R.J. Harvey for the Broncos.
27:13Going to be that starter moving forward.
27:14A couple touchdowns last week.
27:16$100 wager on R.J. Harvey moving up.
27:19That pays back $10,000 at this point.
27:23So, offensive Rookie of the Year, Joe, usually gets all the eyeballs.
27:26How about defensive Rookie of the Year coming into the season?
27:29He was probably one of the easiest picks you could have.
27:31Abdul Carter, do you know what he sits today, Joe?
27:34At his 4% chance, which $100 pays back at $2,000.
27:38The leaders, Jalen Walker and how about Karsten Schlesinger?
27:42Balling out for that bad boy defense there for the Cleveland Browns.
27:47Yeah, and he has been the clear favorite.
27:50I think of all of the races here, certainly for the Rookies, I don't think anybody else is even remotely close.
27:59I mean, save your money on Abdul Carter because chances are he'll be missing the first half of another game or two.
28:06Yeah, coming because some people just don't get it.
28:09But, hey, you know, maybe Lawrence Taylor will change his mind and give you his number and let you wear it moving forward.
28:15I doubt that very much.
28:16But, yeah, I think that's a clear one, Donnie.
28:19I don't know that I'd waste a lot of money hoping that somebody will overtake the kid because he's been an absolute wrecking ball.
28:26By the way, if you are looking at some of these guys, too, like Schlesinger's in the lead, do you know who's right behind him?
28:32It's Mason Graham.
28:34Yeah, same team for Cleveland.
28:35That tells you great veteran mix, Schwartz calling great plays, and fantastic drafting on the way for Cleveland.
28:42If they can only just find a quarterback, which is something we've been asking for for a long, long time, maybe that fits into the mold.
28:48But certainly, Schlesinger in the lead right now.
28:51Let's continue to another market here on Calshi as we bring up the Chicago exact win total this season.
28:57That's the Bears.
28:58You might have thought before the season, lucky to get nine or so wins.
29:01Uh-uh, they're already there with a full December to go and early January.
29:06Exactly 10 wins, 23% chance.
29:09Exactly 11 wins, 32% chance.
29:1212 wins, 28%.
29:14Can the Bears, Joe, get the 12 wins on the season?
29:19Well, my question to Donnie, this is just regular season overall?
29:24Yes.
29:24You know, including postseason, just a regular season, right?
29:27Well, I mean, my goodness.
29:29Yes, they are, I believe, looking at that schedule, Donnie.
29:33I don't know that they're going to be an underdog in too many more games, are they?
29:36Not at this point.
29:38Underdogs this weekend, Joe, here's their schedule.
29:41Packers this weekend, Browns, Packers, and 49ers, and then follow with the Lions.
29:46It is a tough string that they're going to play, but they just handled their business in Philadelphia.
29:50If they can beat the Packers, they'll be well on their way.
29:52Absolutely.
29:53The Chicago Bears and Ben Johnson.
29:55How about that?
29:56Isn't that a great couch to say, but that's how we get down.
29:58More NFL Talk next.
30:00First meeting of the season between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.
30:04These two games are going to go a long way to determine who's going to win the AFC North Division.
30:09This line opened up at 6.5, has dropped to 5.5 at FanDuel, but 6 is elsewhere.
30:1543.5 as the new total, down from 46.5.
30:19The Baltimore Ravens hoping to come into this game as healthy as they've been all season, even with a limited practice once again yesterday from Lamar Jackson.
30:27I can't stand what I see out of the Pittsburgh Steelers right now, but you know this rivalry and how they get down.
30:33Ravens aren't playing great football.
30:34Neither are the Steelers, but we see close to a touchdown favorite for those Baltimore Ravens, Joe.
30:40I already know where you're going in this one, and I hate it.
30:42So let the people know.
30:44Andrew, listen, I'm just delivering the facts here, and the fact is that there is a line in the sand between the public and the pros here,
30:53and the public looks at what we just saw from Pittsburgh and goes, absolutely not.
31:00This line is too low.
31:01It should be a touchdown or more.
31:02The problem is, Donnie, I mean, you're seeing it, tickets, everything on the Ravens, and yet this line has dropped, and, you know, five and a halves are available.
31:12And when you look at the history between these two teams, right, Donnie, we know nine of the last 11 have ended within one score.
31:20I mean, these two teams play absolute drag-em-out football, and Tomlin as an underdog against the Ravens, 13-4-2 against the number.
31:30And, you know, listen, as bad as both of these teams may look right now, there is a good chance that this thing comes down to which kicker has a chance to win it at the end.
31:41And I think that's how you got to look at it with these two teams.
31:45If they were playing anybody else, different ballgame.
31:49But Steelers-Ravens always produces, oh, my goodness, hold your breath.
31:54It's coming down to the last kick or the last play.
31:56Now, Joe, if I would have told you that Mike Tomlin's actively negotiating with Penn State, does that change your opinion here on that five and a half or six?
32:04How about that, Joe?
32:06Coaches, juggling?
32:06You better be playing the under, Donnie.
32:08You better be playing the under.
32:10That's all I'm saying.
32:11If you're expecting a ton of offense from either of these two teams, that may be even a bigger trend in this game than anything else, Donnie,
32:18is the fact that they always seem to play the unders as well.
32:21So go figure.
32:23It should be an interesting one.
32:24Yeah, we'll see if that line changes a little bit later in the week.
32:27Maybe it goes to six or seven, something like that.
32:30All right.
32:30Let's get to Denver and Las Vegas here at this point, Joe.
32:34See that?
32:34I can see that.
32:35Look at that.
32:36By the way, I have a board here, Joe, where I can play music on the show.
32:40Like, why don't we start doing that and really lighten this thing up and make it a disco?
32:43I agree.
32:43Because you might need it for this next game.
32:45Denver and Vegas?
32:46You might as well just go hang out at Hakkasan this weekend because Denver probably rolls this football team.
32:52But it's not about winning, Joe.
32:53It's about covering point spreads.
32:54It's a seven and a half.
32:56Denver's been known to, hey, they're in the fourth quarter and it's a really close game.
33:00And Vegas has been known to, I don't know what the hell we're doing on offense anymore.
33:03Something has to give in this game with a total that's only 40 and a half.
33:06And you know why it's 40 and a half?
33:08Las Vegas stinks out loud on offense.
33:10That's why.
33:10Yeah, this one's rough.
33:14We're not going to lie here.
33:16I mean, it's funny.
33:18Denver, though, get a load of this, Donnie, because you're right about them.
33:23Sometimes they have a problem of playing down to their competition.
33:27And next thing you know, they got to make some sort of crazy comeback.
33:30They have started very slowly in games this year.
33:33In fact, the Broncos have trailed in all 12 games this season.
33:38And yet, Donnie, they're still 10 and two, right?
33:41But they're only five and seven against the number.
33:43They're 10 wins while trailing is the most for a team in the first 12 games of all time.
33:49At some point, you got to worry, are they always going to be able to make the comeback
33:53or get the big play or the flag or a guy jumping over the center to try to block it?
33:58Like, what is it?
34:00What's going to happen here in this one?
34:03It feels to me like Denver is a really good teaser leg this week.
34:08Just bring it down, ask them to win the game, and you're good to go.
34:11Because outside of that, they're winning games, yes, Donnie, but they're not covering numbers here.
34:16And that would worry me in this one.
34:19Yeah, and also understand this.
34:20Where they played last week on the East Coast, had to get some extended time here,
34:24had to fly back to Denver, then going to fly over to Vegas here.
34:26That could make a difference here with that spread of seven and a half.
34:29Joe's right.
34:29Be hard-pressed to think that Denver goes into Vegas and loses,
34:32because then you would change your complete opinion,
34:34probably what the Broncos can do in the playoffs.
34:35Good teams win these games, not necessarily covering it.
34:38Just win on, get your victory, and see if you can clamp down and win that AFC West.
34:42Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, they're going to tee it up this weekend.
34:46425 out in the desert.
34:48Heavy favorite here for the Rams, Joe.
34:50We're seeing eight and a half at a lot of outlets here.
34:52And 47 and a half to 48 and a half, depending on where you're shopping at with the total.
34:56I do think the Rams bounce back with a victory here.
34:58But the one thing I like about Arizona, Jacoby Brissett's going to be a quarterback again.
35:01They move the football, Joe.
35:02I think we can get the 50 points, because I think the Rams will be angry.
35:06They take it out.
35:07They'll be in the high 20s.
35:08And maybe Arizona can chase them down as well.
35:10I look for a high-scoring affair in Arizona between these two.
35:13It could very well be.
35:15But, you know, there has been nobody, you know, nobody cashes tickets better in the month of December, Donnie, than Sean McVay.
35:23I mean, my goodness, 26 and 11 straight up in the month of December here.
35:28I mean, he is, he's already won eight games in a row, going back to last year in December.
35:33His teams always end up playing their best this time of year.
35:38And coming off of that awful outing last week here, it would make sense that a bounce back is coming.
35:47But again, the Rams at this point, just win the game, and you're good to go.
35:50Winning it and having to run away with it are two different things.
35:54Likely, team totals are going to be a really good bet here.
35:58And the over, like you said, it wouldn't shock me if this number continues to rise a little bit before we get to kick.
36:04Chicago and Green Bay, a massive game in the NFC North for this one.
36:09How about this?
36:10Tickets coming in, Joe, over 80% on the Chicago Bears.
36:13Having said that, FanDuel opened up their line at 5.5, Joe.
36:16Do you know where every market's at right now?
36:18Minus 6.5, FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Bet365, even some outlets there in Las Vegas.
36:24A total of 44.5.
36:25It's going to be cold in Green Bay.
36:27But also understand this, as Joe pointed out, in Buffalo, they're used to playing in these conditions.
36:31Cold temperatures.
36:32We're talking in the teens.
36:34But no precipitation, Joe.
36:35And winds under 10 miles an hour.
36:38That just is a hard, cracking football there that you're going to get ready for here.
36:41How about close to a touchdown favorite for the pack right now?
36:43It's funny, Donnie, because, I mean, it's been a while since a 9-3 Bears team is where you start December.
36:52And an 8-3-1 Packers team, both coming into this game this late in the season.
36:58It's been a while since these two teams have been this good leading the division in a while here.
37:04But, you know, LaFleur has been very good in winning games in December.
37:08You know what he's not been good at?
37:11Covering games in December.
37:1320-4 straight up in December.
37:15Only 13-10-1 against the number in December.
37:18So, yes, this is a number that seems a little bit interesting here, Donnie.
37:25Because do I trust them to win the game?
37:27Sure, at home.
37:28Do I trust them to blow out Chicago and win by more than one score?
37:32I don't think I do.
37:33And LaFleur has not been that guy in his career as a coach in Green Bay.
37:37Ah, turning the lights out here.
37:39Take a look at this game we're going to talk about.
37:41And this is a game between the Houston Texans on the road to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.
37:46Looking at the standings, the Houston Texans sit at 7-5.
37:49How about the Kansas City Chiefs at 6-6?
37:52Feels like the loser of this game is probably going home for their season.
37:55And you have the Chiefs, who opened up as a favorite at 4-1 at some outlets.
37:59Down to 3-1 across the board in a total of 41-1.
38:03I'm just not a believer in Kansas City anymore.
38:05These games, like the Dallas Cowboys games, they always would win those in the biggest spots.
38:09They didn't come away with that victory.
38:11And now you have arguably the best defense in the NFL with a devastating pass rush and elite cornerbacks and secondary.
38:18I think they're going to struggle in this game.
38:20If I'm looking at this right now, Joe, I'll take the 3-and-a-half points.
38:23I'm not scared of Kansas City anymore.
38:26Yeah, I mean, we're in rare territory here, right?
38:29It's the first time I think Mahomes has ever lost three or four outright.
38:33He's also only, what, one and three against the number in those games.
38:38But they have owned Houston.
38:41They have won five straight against this Houston Texans team here.
38:46For whatever reason, they're dropping at least 23 or more points in all six games that they have played with Mahomes.
38:53It's, in Arrowhead, it's tough to trust.
38:58It's tough.
38:59As much as we want to stick a fork in Kansas City, some teams, they just beat, and they beat them on a regular basis.
39:06And this might be one of those teams.
39:08Well, Houston, the team a couple years ago in the playoffs had like a 21-point lead.
39:11It was gone before you can actually go to commercial break at that point.
39:14Like, Mahomes used to be able to do that.
39:15And understand this, the NFL needs the Mahomes and the Chiefs in the playoffs.
39:20You do know this.
39:21I'm a conspiracy guy, and I believe it.
39:24Oh, yeah.
39:25Look, it's a Thursday.
39:25We understand that.
39:26Big doings tonight in the NFL, and then you wake up tomorrow.
39:29It's Championship College Football Friday, which leads into Championship College Football Saturday.
39:33And action on Sunday in the NFL.
39:37So let's understand this, Joe.
39:38This is the time of the show that we're eventually going to get and talk about,
39:41okay, we want your opinion on something.
39:43But before we do that, Daniel Jones getting help from his roommates?
39:46Is it with his broken leg?
39:48What are you talking about, Daniel Jones?
39:49I guess your college roommate's made whatever you have to wear on your leg.
39:53Can you speak a little bit about that relationship you have with them
39:55and the trust you put in your college roommates?
39:56Because I have a college roommate.
39:57He ain't doing that for me.
39:59Yeah, lucky to have smart friends and two classmates of mine, teammates at Duke,
40:05who are really great friends.
40:07And, yeah, they were starting up that business.
40:11They kind of really had an idea about it.
40:14My last year at Duke, I broke my collarbone at that time.
40:17So it kind of worked out timing-wise.
40:20And since then, they've built a pretty good business, 3D printing those pads and devices.
40:27So, yeah, kind of funny, you know, using one of them again.
40:31But they're smart guys and lucky to have smart friends.
40:34How about they 3D print a new leg for them, Joe?
40:38Did they figure that out, those new kids yet?
40:40How about that?
40:41I just love the reporter.
40:43He's like, I got college roommates that day.
40:46But, like, dude, you went to Fort Wayne Community College.
40:49Stop it.
40:49The guy went to Duke.
40:50What do you think they got going on there?
40:52And, of course, he figured it out.
40:54Of course, he's got roommates that could probably make that bionic man,
40:57which we need to look into, Donnie.
40:59He might be just that, good old Danny Dimes.
41:01Yeah, my college roommates back in the day after that had a broken leg
41:04would probably repeatedly punch me in my broken leg.
41:07That's what they would do for me at this point as opposed to help me fix my broken leg.
41:10But let's get to the section of the show that we like to reach out to the public
41:13and see what they're digging on today.
41:14Here's Fade the Public.
41:23Big game in the NFL tonight.
41:25So I guess based on what we saw last Thursday,
41:26this should be the highest-rated game in the history of professional football
41:30from what we're gathering here based on all the other statistics.
41:33But that's not what we're asking tonight, how much higher the ratings could be.
41:36The question we're asking at SportsGrid on our Fade the Public poll today,
41:39what is your best bet for Cowboys versus Lions on Thursday night football?
41:43Four options, the over, the under, or the Cowboys or the Lions with the spread.
41:47The favorite right now, 38.5% live.
41:50That's the Cowboys getting three.
41:52The public's loving themselves some Cowboys today, Joe.
41:54Yeah, well, they are America's team.
41:57And listen, they should.
41:59I mean, this Cowboys team has gotten healthier.
42:03And Jerry, certainly with the moves that he made at the deadline,
42:07this is a different Cowboys team than what we saw early on in the year.
42:12And Detroit, you know, at some point, the public, Donnie,
42:15is going to look at Detroit and be like,
42:17maybe they just aren't as good as they have been in the last couple of years.
42:22And I think that is starting to turn.
42:24However, they win this game tonight.
42:26It's going to be a whole lot of Detroit love from this point forward.
42:31But I got to tend to agree with the public here.
42:33I think Dallas is, in fact, a live dog here tonight.
42:37How about that?
42:38Live dogs tonight.
42:39Talking about some live dogs.
42:40We could be getting to them next.
42:41But you know what?
42:42We need to bounce back for the people.
42:44And you might say like, hey, guys, you went 0-2 last night.
42:46Understand this.
42:47It's a marathon.
42:48We went 2-0 Monday, 2-0 Tuesday, 0-2 Wednesday.
42:52That's 4-2 on the week heading into Thursday.
42:54We got two more bangers coming up right here on Bye Bye Bye.
43:03So many options.
43:04So many different places to go, Joe.
43:06Where are you going with your best bet tonight?
43:07I'm going to go to this Thursday night football game, Donnie.
43:12And I am going to, instead of side a full game total, I'm going to split this game in half.
43:18And I'm going to look at the first half here.
43:21And I am going to look at the Cowboys team total over 12 and a half here.
43:27Now, listen.
43:27The Cowboys have scored 14 or more first half points in seven of their last 10 games here, Donnie.
43:35They are the number three highest point-per-game team total in the first half in the NFL.
43:42And Detroit's defense, they have allowed now 13 or more first half points in four of their last five games.
43:48They have played in those games Commanders, Giants, Vikings, an Eagles team who can't get out of their own way,
43:56and the Packers who have no idea what they're going to be week to week.
44:00None of those teams hold a candle to the offensive capability of what this Dallas team brings.
44:0712 and a half is too low as far as I'm concerned, Donnie.
44:10I expect them to have two touchdowns at least by the time we get to halftime.
44:15So I'm over that.
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