00:00Let's start at Churchill down, Scott. It's going to be Saturday for the grade three Commonwealth turf. It's going to be race number 10 here. Think of the three races we have. This is probably the best betting race. Pretty wide open where we can maybe make a case for a lot of different horses in here, Scott. You have four of them that come out of the Bryan Station race. And we'll actually start with California Burrito, who got good on the synthetic surfaces earlier in the year.
00:24He actually won the John Battaglia Memorial, and he was in the Jeff Ruby Stakes, which is one of the races that gets you qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. A little disappointing in that race. And in the Pat Day Mile, they gave this horse some time off. He'll try the grass for the first time. Imagine probably from the inside, try to get this horse involved and show some early speed.
00:43Yeah, you know, before I, you know, I originally looked at this horse who has some talent. You know, I think all weather was really what he showed the talent on, though. So not worried about the Pat Day Mile. But I thought it was a probably a prep for Turfway this year with the eye maybe on the Kentucky Cup Classic as the ultimate goal. But our colleague David Aragona made a good case for the pedigree on the turf. He likes this horse. So a 20 to one, that's enough for me to give a little bit more of a bump up to. I do agree should be forward from the inside.
01:10Yeah, David is a great handicapper who you could find more from on the Daily Racing Forum YouTube if you ever are looking at a lot of the race previews they have. And he's the man who makes the morning line odds for all the tracks at New York. We move to troubleshooting. Scott is a grade one winner. It's a multiple graded stakes winner. It's really tough to knock what this guy has done over 2025. I mean, he's raced seven times this year. Four of them have been wins. Two of them were runner up efforts. He just shows up and fires.
01:40Each and every time. And it was pretty impressive to see that he could stretch out from the six and a half for a longs to a mile. I think we previewed the Bryan Station and you seemed pretty, pretty content and pretty sure that he would be able to stretch out to a mile.
01:55Yeah, but I'm starting to, you know, you watch the race and it really set up nicely for him. I don't want to take anything away from him. It was a race that favored forward flow.
02:02I think the miles really stretching them. If he was eight to one, 10 to one in this spot. Sure. I could make the case that he's just getting better and better, but it's probably a favorite here. I think I'm going to take a swing against horse.
02:15That does look like he's getting better and better right now is Montador. And you look at his overall form, Scott. It's just really tough to knock anything he's done. He's never run a bad race.
02:24He's actually crossed the wire first three times. One of those races, he got disqualified. But what's nice about him is he has that type of running style that is really friendly to betters where he can just kind of put himself in the race, but not on the lead.
02:39He can sit just behind the leaders within a couple lengths and really give you a good run for your money. I feel like he'll be involved just a few lengths behind. He'll give us every opportunity here.
02:49I like him in this spot, Scott. Yeah, me too. He did get a really good trip last time out, but I kind of see that happening again, kind of a pocket inside trip.
02:58And I think it's a positive that he's coming back on 20 days rest for Michael Stidham and Godolphin. They don't need to rush a horse out for a grade three. I think he's just doing very well. I think he's the now horse and hopefully we get the five to one.
03:10And Agata just won the Hawthorne Derby. So positive there. But when you look at the races prior to that, he was behind Plensa, Giacoso, Simulate. So he's going to have to improve on those foes who have been in front of him in recent starts.
03:25Yeah, his maiden victory, maiden 50K. So he didn't break his maiden against the top level maidens. He's been outrun when he's kind of tried at this level.
03:33I think he's a couple low, but if they go at it a little bit on the front end, which is possible in here, maybe he could pick up some pieces like he has in his two starts over this surface.
03:42There are some horses at big prices in this race that don't have bad form. I mean, like Outrunner in here, you don't really knock a lot of what he's done, but he's going to step up.
03:52Scott and face tougher in this field. He's coming off of a third in the old Dominion Derby, but this just feels like a tougher, deeper group.
03:59That group was sort of led by one horse, World Beater, who was the dominant horse there.
04:05Yeah, he's got tactical speed. He's kind of a grinder. So I don't think the mile and a 16th might not be ideal.
04:11But the only starter that Jorge Eduardo Jr., the trainer here, has sent to Churchill in the last five years, was a winner.
04:16So maybe he knows that this horse is live and has spotted him for this spot.
04:20He's clearly looking like he's been prepped for this spot, I should say. So Outrunner may be worth a little bit of a look.
04:26This next stretch of runners, I mean, you could probably make cases for a lot of these horses.
04:30Mancetti won the King's Plate, which is the Canadian version of the Kentucky Derby.
04:36He's going to try turf for the first time, but he does have a winning turf sibling, and this runner has a good amount of speed, Scott.
04:44He's bred pretty well, and he comes off of back-to-back runner-up efforts even after his win in the King's Plate.
04:50Yeah, you know, I think he would need things his way.
04:52We really don't know what to make of him on the turf, so it would be a price-dependent play.
04:56I just don't see him being loose out there like he was in the King's Plate, that huge win up north.
05:01So I'd be against Mancetti, but I'm very happy and looking forward to see him run in this spot.
05:05Yeah, I agree. I'm kind of questions on him. I want to see one in this spot from him.
05:10We move to Giacoso. He's a great two-winner.
05:13He will be trying to turn the tables, though, on Plensa, who beat him a couple starts back in the gunrunner.
05:18But you're looking now at four races in a row that are pretty solid.
05:22Even that fifth in the American turf, that's a good effort behind some nice horses that day.
05:26So he's just really been stringing races together nicely, Scott.
05:30Yeah, and you get Jose Ortiz, who's not only a good rider, but it's nice when you see a barn reach out to a rider like Jose.
05:36Keith DeSormo usually sticks to his guys.
05:39Ben Curtis already down in New Orleans for the fairgrounds meet.
05:42Jose being aboard won't hurt.
05:43This horse just doesn't have that punch to come from way out of it, so he kind of needs to be in that second tier.
05:49Yep. Chapman's Peak has won two in a row.
05:52What's nice about those victories, one of them was on the front end.
05:55One of them he had to sit and then kind of made an early move.
05:58So he showed us that he can pass horses if need be.
06:01He can win races in different ways.
06:03Here is the victory at Keeneland most recently.
06:06What do you think about Chapman's Peak?
06:07We talked about Jose Ortiz on Giacoso.
06:10Brother Irad is right next door.
06:12Always scary to fade Irad, but I'm against this horse to an extent.
06:16And I think those mile and 516th maiden specials, three-year-olds and up in Kentucky, are much softer than this.
06:22And he rode a good rail on the front end against another suspect group in a first-level allowance at Keeneland.
06:27This is a big step up.
06:28Can he win?
06:29Absolutely, but it's going to be too short of a price for me.
06:31The number nine flying Mohawk ran in the Kentucky Derby back on May the 3rd.
06:36This horse showed ability on the grass.
06:38Then he ran pretty well when he finished second at Turfway on the Synthetic.
06:41So they took a shot when he qualified for the Derby.
06:44He gets back to the grass now.
06:46They've taken a little while to get him back.
06:47I think he's had a couple hiccups along the way trying to get back to the races.
06:51But I feel like he has a pretty high ceiling on the grass.
06:54I just don't know if he's ready for that A game quite yet.
06:57Yeah, those questions are all fair.
06:59His trainer is very good.
07:00And to those sports fans out there, which are plenty, 2.8 Racing, that's Jason Wirth,
07:05who's got very much into horse racing these days.
07:08So you don't want some rooting interest.
07:10This horse might give you a fun shot rooting at the end for flying Mohawk and Jason Wirth.
07:14Two outside horses, Simulate and Plensa.
07:17They've been a little unlucky at the draw the last couple races, Scott.
07:20They both had outside draws in the Bryan Station, and they're going to be drawn to the outside again.
07:25And I think both of them have some talent.
07:27But in an evenly matched field, when you're parked out wide, it kind of limits your options in what you can do.
07:33So things for both of these horses to the outside, Simulate and Plensa, feels like things have to really break well.
07:39Do you have any thoughts on either of the two?
07:41Well, it's tough.
07:42That first run, it comes up pretty quick at Churchill, my on a 16th.
07:45I prefer Simulate only because I've always preferred him.
07:48But his last race, very discouraging, did no real running.
07:52Both of them are really going to have to work out a trip here to have any sort of shot.
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