00:00I mean, it's a really strong field because even some of the horses that don't feel like top tier contenders, you could probably make a case for them.
00:06Like the number one, for example, Cugino, he certainly isn't as accomplished as some of the others in here, but he's going to be making just his second start as a four-year-old.
00:16He doesn't have a whole lot of bad races there.
00:18And if he has any improvement in him as an older horse, he's not that far off from competing with these top contenders.
00:26So it makes this a really tricky and competitive race.
00:28It is.
00:29I think it's arguably the best turf race of the year here in the States.
00:34And Cugino is a perfect example of why.
00:37When I opened up the form, I started looking at Cugino.
00:40I'm like, man, I could really see this horse fitting perfectly in here.
00:44He's going to get a really good trip.
00:46IRAD's riding lights out.
00:48And as I just went along, he looks like he's just a little slower.
00:51That said, second start of four-year-old campaign, he could definitely break through for a career best.
00:56And a horse like my boy, Prince, he's multiple grade one placed.
01:01My biggest issue right now with him, Scott, is that I liked when they cut him back to sprinting on the turf.
01:07And I thought that was actually a really good spot for him because he has some speed.
01:11But sprinting, he can finish a little bit.
01:14When they go longer, he seems pretty much like he wants to be on the lead.
01:17So I'm expecting him to probably be forwardly placed in here.
01:20I think they got to go with this horse, just given, you know, the rest of the field, the quality of the field.
01:25And I don't necessarily know if I think he's going to have things easy enough to beat them.
01:30But it's an ambitious spot.
01:31It's, again, you know, you pick and choose your spots.
01:34This is clearly a spot they've decided to take a chance, and I respect it.
01:38Number three, Johannes is one of the best turf milers in training.
01:42We just haven't seen him race so far this year.
01:45They are trying to set him up to peak in the Breeders' Cup.
01:48So this will be his first race of the year.
01:51But I will say, you know, as a horse that's a short price, he's going to have to ship all the way to the East Coast, which is not an easy task, Scott.
01:58And he'll be making his first start in like seven months.
02:01So a couple knocks on a horse who will be a short price, because I can't really knock much on the paper with this guy.
02:07Last year, he was fantastic.
02:09His only defeat was when he finished second, and he ran a great race in the Breeders' Cup.
02:14I love this horse, so it's hard to be totally unbiased.
02:17I needed him in the Breeders' Cup, but it worked out well for him finishing second that day.
02:21Myo Bone Bruising clearly has not missed much training since he's come back, or he hasn't missed any.
02:26It's interesting.
02:27Tim Yacht, team 12 for 61 off 180-plus day layoff over the last five years.
02:33285 ROI.
02:34And this horse came off a near-year layoff and won the American in one of his best races of his career, and at the time, clearly.
02:42So, I don't know.
02:43I mean, I wanted to poke holes in him, and I don't think he's going to be a great bet, but a lot of things to like, even though he is coming off that long layoff.
02:51The number four was the trickiest horse in this race for me, Scott.
02:54And really, the Kelso race, because the Kelso had three horses in there, the top three finishers, that are all pretty honest.
03:01And I wouldn't be shocked to see any of them run well in here.
03:04I'm just going to have to try to treat one of the races like it wasn't as strong.
03:08So, I'll personally hope that the Kelso wasn't as good.
03:11But, wow, like, if I'm playing pick fours and pick fives, Think Big is probably a horse who I want.
03:17He was a very good turf sprinter, and then they stretched him out, and he won the Kelso last time out, proving that he can go a mile on the turf.
03:25And didn't need the lead.
03:27I love the fact that a sprinter that didn't need the lead or, you know, that wasn't even, you know, a sprinter that showed he could come off the pace, showed he could do it again.
03:35He was much the best.
03:36He lost a bit of momentum in there.
03:38I think this is a real big spot for him.
03:41I didn't think the Kelso was a very, very strong field, but to do what he did is kind of against the odds, and I think he's got a big shot.
03:48The two horses that he actually finished in front of are right next to him in this race.
03:52Win for the money ran third.
03:54He's actually a grade one winner.
03:56He's going to make his second start back after a five-month break.
04:00He was a little bit wide early in that race.
04:02I think he ran okay.
04:03I'm just not sure if he's quite on the level with some of the top-tier contenders, but I think he's going to run better in here.
04:11I could see him hit the board.
04:12I could see him being in the mix early on.
04:14I don't have many knocks, just not quite – I just don't like him quite as much as some others in here.
04:19He was three wide in the first turn.
04:21I know a lot of sharp horse players liked him off the layoff last time.
04:25I expect him to at least be his morning line, if not slightly lower, because of the trip and second off the bench.
04:31For that reason, I think I'm against him as well, but wouldn't be surprised.
04:35I played intellect last time out, Scott.
04:37I thought he got a perfect trip, honestly.
04:39He got the trip, he made the move, and he just got run down on the square by Think Big in that race.
04:45Yeah, it's hard to make a case for him unless Think Big regresses and nobody else runs their race.
04:49Because of that, if he's his five-to-one morning line price, which we know to trust David, I think he's an absolute toss.
04:56Completely agree.
04:57We move to Spirit of St. Louis.
04:59He's a multiple grade one winner, and he's been one of the best turf horses, turf route horses this year in the U.S.
05:07He has a couple really big wins.
05:09The Pegasus World Cup and the Turf Classic at Churchill in May are two of the more prestigious grass races, and he's got them both.
05:17He's an interesting price horse in here to me, Scott, just on a bounce-back play because he didn't really fire in the Manhattan, but he was favored in that race.
05:26It was on a good turf course that had some moisture in it, and the race was won by a gate-to-wire winner where there was no other pace and no other passing.
05:35So I think there might have been a couple excuses for him coming out of that race.
05:38Yeah, he cuts back a furlong here for Chad.
05:42I prefer him over intellect.
05:43He's got the better resume, in my opinion.
05:46Had a reason, you know, he didn't get out of the gate all that well, and to your point, was totally against the race shape.
05:51So Spirit of St. Louis is not my top choice in here, but at six to one or higher, I think he's a must-use.
05:57Deterministic is the eight.
05:58He's a grade one winner and a multiple graded stakes winner.
06:01He's really benefited recently, Scott, from aggressive tactics.
06:04They've put him on the front end in longer races, and he's been able to get the lead and slow things down.
06:09We see him here winning the grade one Manhattan.
06:12It's interesting.
06:13He's probably not going to make the lead, you know, with the likelihood of my boy Prince being on the lead.
06:20Can he win from just off the pace?
06:21Yes.
06:22I think the last race was his race, but, you know, this is an interesting shot.
06:26Miguel Clement's been on fire.
06:28The two horses to the outside, Lanyos and Neat, I kind of grouped them together
06:33because they come out of some of the similar races last year.
06:36Their speed ratings and figures are very similar, but they're both 0 for 4 on the year.
06:41And with the tough post, I could see them having to step up.
06:45I'm just not the biggest fan of really either of the outside horses in this spot, Scott.
06:49Could you make a case for either Lanyos or Neat in here?
06:52No, I think the combination of the post and just being a slight tier below the rest of the field
06:57or most of the field makes them pretty easy tosses here, even though we're tossing short big prices.
Comments