00:00This one is the Grade 3 Fayette.
00:02We're going to have 3-year-olds and up going a mile and an eighth on the main track here.
00:07Scott, I thought this was another really challenging race where you don't have that one standout horse that everyone's going to be drawn to.
00:14We kick things off with Lambeth.
00:16Kind of a tough read for me, Scott.
00:18This is a horse who had a big win back in March, and that was at Oaklawn Park.
00:23It wasn't really able to build off of that victory.
00:25A couple races going long on the dirt recently, one on the turf at a mile.
00:30It's kind of going back and forth.
00:32I thought maybe an underneath type.
00:33I think he's up against it at a mile and an eighth.
00:36He's the kind of horse that likes to be forward.
00:38His best efforts are going longer in those races, mile and a half, mile and three quarters and such.
00:43He's a pass for me.
00:45Honor Marie was the Louisiana Derby runner-up.
00:47He's a Grade 2 winner, and he was one of the real wise guy horses in the Kentucky Derby last year
00:53and actually really going into the Belmont because everybody sort of thought he would be the type of horse
00:57who would be really good with more distance.
00:59He just hasn't really progressed from last year, Scott.
01:02We saw him win once going a mile and a half this year at 8-1.
01:06He's just been really inconsistent.
01:08Yeah, you know, I think there's a lot of speed in here,
01:10so I think he might get the right setup and right grip under a guy that, you know, a rider,
01:15Ben Curtis, who's very good with price horses, very good at saving ground.
01:19I thought the last race was a little better than looks when he swung wide on a day
01:23where he wanted to be along the inside of Churchill.
01:25And that's what's tough when you look at his overall pass performances.
01:28He's going to have a couple of those lines that don't look good
01:30because he just doesn't have any early speed.
01:32So there's always going to be a couple races where he has no shot,
01:35and he's way, way out of it.
01:37If you can dig a little bit, and he is a fair price, keep an eye on him
01:40because he's classy enough to win a race like this.
01:43He just really needs the trip, and you want to make sure you get rewarded at the price.
01:47Bracket Buster is proven at Keeneland.
01:48He's in really nice form right now.
01:50He won the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby last time out.
01:53Scott, he did exactly what you would have hoped for him.
01:55He sat off just a little bit off the lead.
01:59He moved to the front end.
02:00He put away a group he was much better than.
02:02The only issue I have is now he's going to be facing a lot tougher
02:05than this group that he just beat.
02:07Horse like Gosker, he's been behind two different times,
02:10and he's going to have to face Gosker in here.
02:13But Bracket Buster really is moving in the right direction.
02:16Yeah, I'm concerned slightly about regression off the two big efforts in the past,
02:21but you could easily make the case that he's just getting better and better,
02:24and we know he likes this track.
02:26His price won't be good, and he could be amongst those that are caught up early
02:29if they go kind of quick.
02:31Dillinger is very consistent, but at levels a little bit lower than this.
02:35He shows up all the time, lots of second and thirds, doesn't win often.
02:39I'd imagine he'll be part of the early speed in here,
02:42and this is even a little farther than where we've seen him.
02:44A lot of his races are at seven furlongs to a mile or so.
02:48Yeah, I would think he's going to be forward,
02:50but the fact that he's never gone anywhere near this long,
02:52being by Luke DeVega, who's definitely got some distance pedigree,
02:58I would think Dillinger would have gone this long
03:00like what Sappy Joseph thought he could do.
03:02One of the horses that could make me dance in the Moonlight, Scott,
03:05would be this guy, Moonlight, who I think has a nice shot in here.
03:09Moonlight has won three of his last four.
03:11He seems to really be stepping forward.
03:13If you toss that July race that had layoffs on both sides,
03:17I think he fits with the group.
03:18The concern is just the running style.
03:21You know, he's not a horse that can make his own trip,
03:23but you were pointing it out.
03:24You got Bracket Buster, Dillinger, Prince of Power, Dragoon Guard.
03:28They could be going quick early on in here,
03:30and that would help a horse like Moonlight.
03:32Yeah, he kind of has to prove he's up to this level.
03:35His success has been against kind of a tier slightly below this,
03:39and he also has to prove himself at a mile and an eighth.
03:42But Chris Block is a very underrated trainer,
03:44but if you look at the percentages and you follow him over the years,
03:47he's a good guy to bet, and he likes to win races.
03:50You made a good point.
03:50His figures fit, but he's not really done it against this level of horses.
03:54So while he does seem like he fits on those speed figures,
03:57he has to show it against his class level.
04:00Rattle and Roll is a grade one winner.
04:01He's a multiple graded stakes winner.
04:03He's now a six-year-old, though,
04:04and it's been a few starts since we've seen his best.
04:08He ran a good race in Saudi Arabia back in January,
04:11hasn't in the Saudi Cup, the Do-Why World Cup,
04:14and in his first start back in the U.S.
04:16I think we've seen the best of this horse.
04:17They've asked a lot of them.
04:19He's rewarded them with some big efforts,
04:21almost $3.5 million in earnings,
04:23but he would be a surprise for me in this spot.
04:25Best actor is a grade three winner,
04:27but he's just won for his last 10.
04:29He was behind Dragoon Guard most recently.
04:31He beat him actually back at Horseshoe Indy,
04:34two starts back.
04:35What do you do with best actor in here?
04:37Trainer Ed Mojer Jr., a guy you're familiar with, too,
04:39from California, has had a career year,
04:41winning at 18% positive ROI, mostly in the bluegrass,
04:45and this course has not really been along for the ride,
04:47so I think we would have seen it from him already.
04:50I don't know if Prince of Power is good enough
04:52to win this race or to hit the board,
04:53but I think he could have a real say
04:55in the outcome of this race
04:56because he's a pace player, Scott.
04:59He's really quick, and if he goes to the front
05:01or he's making life difficult
05:02on some of the other speed horses,
05:04that's how this race sets up
05:05for an off-the-pace type horse.
05:07I just don't know if he's quite classy enough
05:09to really make a dent himself.
05:11Yeah, the damn Demigata,
05:12speaking of California horses.
05:14Lots of races without a lot of wins
05:16for the owner and breeder in this race.
05:18Brian Carney, Charlie Stutz,
05:20this one's up against it as well.
05:21Dragoon Guard is a multiple-graded stakes winner.
05:24He's never been worse than third in his entire career.
05:27He's really honest.
05:29He can sit off the pace a little bit.
05:31I think of all the speeds, maybe,
05:33if I wanted to have one of them,
05:34it would probably be him.
05:36I still kind of treat him as a little bit more
05:38of an under type in here, Scott,
05:39because I do think that some of the other speeds
05:42in here could soften him up early.
05:43Yeah, and he rode a good rail last time at Churchill.
05:46He was down in a little tight
05:47as a three to five favorite there,
05:48but the inside was good that day.
05:50He always takes a ton of money as the major knock,
05:53and he doesn't always win when he does.
05:55So to me, I want to bet against him in this spot,
05:58but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran big.
06:01I've always been a fan of Gosker, Scott.
06:02I think we can look at his last race.
06:04It was coming off of a big performance in the Haskell.
06:07I think it was a race that he kind of regressed a little bit.
06:10He was wide.
06:11He stumbled pretty bad.
06:12He just did not get a good trip all the way around the track.
06:16I think if you eliminate that,
06:17he could actually end up working out a pretty nice trip in here,
06:20sitting just off the pace,
06:21and maybe we get more value
06:22because of that poor finish last time out.
06:25What do you think about Gosker in here?
06:27Honest, good horse that keeps getting better the last race.
06:29Very forgivable over a racetrack some horses just don't take to.
06:33Didn't have a good day there.
06:34He won over this track.
06:36I think he's got a shot.
06:37How about we round things out
06:38with the Dubai World Cup winner from earlier this year,
06:41Hit Show,
06:42who actually beat Forever Young in that Dubai World Cup,
06:46and Forever Young is going to be a player
06:47in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
06:48That's a really nice horse.
06:50Hit Show doesn't really have a lot of early speed.
06:52He's kind of a grinder, Scott.
06:55How do you think he fits with this group?
06:56I just think it's a really good setup for him.
06:58He's honest.
06:59You do.
07:00When he's really in the right spots,
07:01he runs well.
07:02He's 2-for-2 over the surface,
07:0410-for-21 in his career.
07:06I don't like betting him at a real short price,
07:07but I think he's going to be pretty honest.
07:09He's 6-1 on the line.
07:10I don't like betting on you,
07:34or else that's protection,
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