Grade 2 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct: Horse Racing Preview

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00:00Race 10, Saturday, Aqueduct.

00:01It's the Grade 2 Cigar Mile.

00:03In this one, Scott, we don't really have any of, like, the top, top horses in training,

00:08any big, real, legitimate, Grade 1-type horses.

00:12We can start things out with a very solid New York-bred, Doc Sullivan,

00:16who is a multiple New York-bred stakes winner.

00:19Comes off of a really nice victory last time out.

00:22He's not been quite as competitive when he's faced Open Company,

00:26but he has faced some pretty tough horses in Open Company

00:28when you're looking at, like, you know, Bookum Dano in Scotland.

00:32He has been right behind Crazy Mason a couple times.

00:36I go back and forth.

00:37Initially, I thought, you know, it was probably going to be a little bit too tough for him,

00:40but then you go through the rest of the field.

00:42I think he stacks up well from this field with a class standpoint,

00:45and he might be able to sit a pretty fair trip down on the inside,

00:48maybe third or fourth, just behind the leaders.

00:50What do you do with Doc Sullivan?

00:52Well, I didn't pick him on top.

00:54I think this race, though, as we'll talk about the favorites,

00:56and here we're going to take a look at his most recent dominant effort

00:59against Lesser over the slop against New York State-breds.

01:04I think he's very interesting, even though I didn't pick him on top,

01:07and I think the two favorites are likely to hit the board,

01:10but Johnny Ortiz is a very streaky trainer.

01:13He's trainer 5 for 19 over the last 30 days, 231 ROI.

01:17This is a guy that had a very cold spring and summer,

01:19and I don't think this horse is that far out of it.

01:22These New York-breds are capable of some of these lower, weaker renditions

01:26of some of these stakes races in New York.

01:28Man, just kind of playing out the trip in my head.

01:30I think horses like Mika will want to be forwardly placed,

01:33who we'll talk about next.

01:34Mika was a 14-length winner at Laurel Park last time out.

01:39And honestly, Scott, you start to dive into his overall career.

01:43You know, his debut, he's sprinting on the dirt.

01:45Then in his race at Kentucky, it's right before a long layoff.

01:49You can probably put a line through that.

01:50He comes back out of the race from Kentucky off the bench.

01:54I mean, his races going long on the main track

01:57are both very easy, open-length victories.

02:00He's a total wild card in here.

02:02He is, and if you're just looking to get a little bang for your buck,

02:07not a terrible horse because he doesn't have a lot against him.

02:10The thing is, those races are two-turn races.

02:13This is a one-turn, and often the speed doesn't play quite the same

02:16in these one-turn races when they go a little faster early on and whatnot.

02:21But I couldn't fault anybody for, you know, taking a little swing here.

02:25Of the long shots, I like him most.

02:27Yeah, I agree.

02:29Pentathlon comes off of a win over at Belmont Aqueduct.

02:32That was on October the 24th.

02:33He's had a pretty nice trip that day, opened up.

02:36Just kind of feel like he'll have to take another step up off of that.

02:39Speed figures, he's not that far behind.

02:41But just on a class standpoint, it does seem like this is a tougher group.

02:44Yeah, I don't think he's quite been what they'd hoped for, you know.

02:47The legendary fifth stable, Shug McGahee.

02:50Took a lot of money early on in his career.

02:53Took a lot of money for the first time last time out,

02:55which kind of tells you the kind of quality of field

02:57versus the one he's going to be facing here.

03:00He is not my favorite of the long shots because, well,

03:03I already told you my favorite was.

03:05Crazy Mason is up next.

03:06You know what you're going to get with this guy, Scott.

03:08He's going to drop back.

03:09He's going to make one late run.

03:11He's a grade two winner.

03:12He's grade one placed.

03:14And for a horse with his running style, he's really consistent.

03:17It's now been, you know, seven races in a row, six of them really good.

03:21The only one he didn't really fire was when he went out to Del Mar

03:23for the Bing Crosby, and he loves this track at Aqueduct.

03:26He's won three times here.

03:28You just, you know he's going to come running.

03:31Yeah, and if you're going to listen to me to pick this horse,

03:33and you might be cussing me out early on

03:35because if you don't know this horse, he is way out of it early.

03:39Yeah, and he comes with the run every time,

03:41and I think he's better than these horses right now at one turn.

03:45I could be proven wrong.

03:46There's a couple that are going to take more money,

03:49but I think with any sort of setup on the front end,

03:52he's going to come with a huge run.

03:53Scott, what are you doing giving me this horse 15 lengths out of it, man?

03:56Come on.

03:57And here comes Crazy Mason flying late.

03:59We move to Brazenly.

04:01I just had a hard time making a case for him, Scott.

04:03He has the lowest buyer top in the field, and he's 0 for his last 17.

04:08Yeah, and he hasn't even taken on this level of competition.

04:11You know, he was out west taking on much lesser in some cowbred races.

04:15This is a big swing.

04:17The most positive thing I can come up with is he does hit the board a lot,

04:20and he gets Johnny V for the first time.

04:22Johnny V, obviously capable of moving horses up,

04:25but probably not off Iraq.

04:26Phileas Fogg is a grade two winner.

04:28He adds the blinkers.

04:29I mean, he is recently in really nice form for Gustavo Rodriguez.

04:35He has five wins, three seconds, and then third when he was DQ'd in a race.

04:40He got DQ'd from third in the jockey club from coming over at the start.

04:44He caused some bumping with mind frame there.

04:47My main concern with this horse isn't any of his recent form.

04:51It's good.

04:51He's solid.

04:52He's honest.

04:52I do wonder if he is a little bit better going longer than at this particular distance

04:58where they're going a one-turn mile because I think, Scott, with his running style,

05:02when they're able to go farther, he's able to really get out front.

05:06He's able to get comfortable, slow things down a little bit, use that speed as a weapon.

05:11I'm not saying he can't win a race like this at a mile,

05:13but it doesn't seem like he's quite as quick at a mile to get the lead and dominate some of these horses.

05:19It is a really good spot on paper for him, though, because there aren't really any monsters in here.

05:24Yeah, I mean, they're taking a shot.

05:26Before this was a grade one event, I would have understood it a little more.

05:29He might be just better than these.

05:31I would not be one bit surprised if he gets back down to, you know, even money and wins easy

05:35because he's had a better season than all these horses.

05:38But it's that one-turn mile speed horse.

05:41You know, if he was a little more tactical, I just don't trust him.

05:44And they're adding the blinkers, too, which just makes me wonder if they're looking for something

05:47that hasn't been there yet.

05:49Rounding out the field is Bishop's Bay.

05:51If you just toss the grade one four-go, I mean, you got five wins in a row for him.

05:56He's been, I think, only out of the exact one time in his 12 career starts.

06:01He likes aqueduct.

06:02He likes the distance.

06:03Think about him.

06:04They've handled him very cautiously.

06:07He hasn't really been in a lot of big races against, like, grade one company.

06:11I'm curious, too, with his running style.

06:13He always has to be pretty close to the lead.

06:15If he had to come from a little far out of it, can he pass horses four or five lengths out?

06:20So, I'll knock him a little bit because I think he'll take some money, but he's a very

06:24honest horse, Scott.

06:25He almost always shows up with a good effort.

06:28They thought this was a derby horse way back, and they've managed him way differently ever

06:32since.

06:33I just think he's, you know, not all that.

06:36And when he's a short price, he's beaten me many times.

06:38I'm going to let him beat me again on Saturday.

06:40We'll let him beat you back.

06:45We'll let him beat you back.

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