Gino & Scott's Picks for Churchill Downs Betting: Saturday Races

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00:00Such a big day on Saturday at Churchill Downs. I mean, there are some really good betting races,

00:04so we wanted to go through the card and give a couple races where we had strong opinions,

00:08and one of those first races was in race number four on Saturday. This is a race on paper I

00:14thought has a really good amount of early speed in here. They're going to be going six furlongs. I

00:19mean, when you see a horse like wound up from Southern California in the race, you know they'll

00:23be flying. I mean, sharp warning is really, really quick. Concrete glory is very, very fast. I wanted

00:29a horse that can sit off the pace a little bit, that can close. Raymond is actually coming

00:33in from Prairie Meadows, but if you look at some of the races, I mean, he's faced some

00:37pretty nice horses like Glenn Gary, who's seven for 15, and Skelly. I think he gets a good

00:42trip, Scott. He's six to one on the morning line. Anything above like nine to two I think

00:46is a fair price, and that should give me some nice value in there. So that's race number

00:50four, which is one of these claiming crown races. They're really good big fields on Saturday.

00:56Scott, you've got to play, I believe, in race number seven.

00:59Yeah, and it looks like Raymond's coming in fresh, and I remember that horse when he was

01:03younger in the Steve Asmussen barn. Race seven for me is at the one-turn mile, and it is one

01:11of the claiming races as well. I think it's the glass slipper, if I'm not mistaken. And I

01:16think the pace should be honest and contentious in here as well. Jubilant Joni won this race

01:21a year ago, and there's some speed horses that have come in in good form, but I'm going

01:27to go to the Jose Ortiz. We talked about Jose being, well, we didn't talk about him being

01:30Irad's brother, but amongst that top five list, you put Irad in there, Jose there as

01:36well. And I thought this horse took on a better field last time, for sure, in the Maryland

01:40Million. I know that was skate bred, but those aren't claimers. And I think he's got the right

01:45running style. I think Jose, with the speed right to his inside, is going to be able to angle

01:48over, sit kind of a mid-pack trip, and get a good setup here. So I like Next Girl for the Robert

01:54Bales Barn, a mid-Atlantic barn. This horse has never been to Louisville, but I'm hoping that she

01:59takes to the new surroundings. Yeah, when you just look at some of the races that she's exiting,

02:03they're just some really strong races at Laurel and Colonial. Not a lot of claiming races, a lot

02:08of those non-winners of two allowance races as well. So just one thing you're looking at, and I'm

02:13looking at, what have these horses been doing recently? What races are they coming out of? And some of

02:17them are coming out of some really strong races, like Next Girl. We move to my next best bet on the

02:23day, and this one's going to be in race number nine. It's interesting, the first horse I was just

02:28talking about in the fourth race was a situation where I thought there was a lot of speed, and it

02:32could set up from someone from off the pace. This race, in the ninth race, I think it's the opposite.

02:37I don't think there's much speed on paper at all in this big field. I think Soze is the one to catch.

02:42You look just a couple starts back, this horse was winning at Monmouth Park, at Delaware Park.

02:46There's a lot of wins at Parks. The concern that I have, seven furlongs might be a little

02:51bit pushing it. For Soze, I will probably include Scott, take charge, smiling, who I think could

02:57sit right behind and maybe fall into it. So I'm looking for some speed horses. But if you're

03:02playing like a late pick four, pick five, something like that, I want to throw in a couple of these

03:07horses that are going to be forwardly placed, like Soze. So I'm going to give that one a big

03:11look. I think Soze is double digit odds on the morning line. It should offer you some really

03:16nice value in here. Yeah, 12 to one. And, you know, Steve can forget what kind of class

03:21level it's up against often if it gets brave on the front end. I'm going to go to the last

03:26race for the last play. And these are kind of, you can combine these races for some horizontal

03:30wagers as well. You know, some of our thoughts and some of your own as well. And this is the

03:36Tiara, the claiming crown Tiara. Risk manager is a deserving favorite in here. 11 for 36 in the

03:43career. Three straight wins. Mike Maker, Tyler Gaflione, they know their way around and to this

03:48winner's circle. But Nantasket Beach does as well. This is a son of Street Boss that won a race

03:54impressively. In fact, knocked me out of the horizontals that day. So I remember him quite well.

04:00Last time out, he was shipped into Saratoga for this low profile barn. And I took, obviously,

04:05that's a positive. You know, he didn't run very well, but he also did not have things his way.

04:10He was wide and off the pace the day where the inside was good. And there was a speed

04:14horse on the front end. So to me, Nantasket Beach with Julian Le Perou being refreshing for

04:19this spot. Seems well spotted. Seems like they regrouped and they're getting, again, lesser

04:24competition than they faced last out. So I'll swing away. You know, we're all kind of looking

04:29at these 8-1, 5-1, 6-1. You know, not total bombs like you with Legree, but some price

04:36sources.

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