00:00Kentucky Derby points up for grabs, Scott, and I believe the first Kentucky Derby points of the year were awarded in September to Spice Runner when he won the Iroquois.
00:09I think trainer Steve Asmussen joked at the time, I'm the leader right now.
00:13We're at the top of the Kentucky Derby points standings.
00:16Coming off of that race, Spice Runner was in the Breeders Futurity, completely missed the break.
00:21I think he just put a line right through that race, right?
00:22Never got a chance to run.
00:23If you're playing him off the Iroquois, he was a little green, and he is the type of horse who you could see having some upside if they can kind of get him figured out and get him to straighten out.
00:34I'm not sure if this is the spot yet, but what do you think about Spice Runner in here?
00:38Yeah, mixed opinions.
00:40So the 12-1 is a little bit, you know, at least intriguing.
00:43Joel Rosario is another jockey on this horse, the fourth one.
00:47Not sure he's super easy to ride from the inside after that poor break.
00:51I think he's a cup below these, but I don't think anybody is a huge separator in here, so very little will shock me.
00:58And if he is quirky, the rail draw might be a tough spot to be for a young horse drawn down on the inside, so keep an eye on that.
01:06Cherokee Nation is still a maiden, Scott, but in his second start, when he went long, he finished a really good second behind a horse named Mr. AP,
01:14and then Mr. AP came and he finished second next time out in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile,
01:20and he earned a really nice buyer speed figure, a 96 when he did so.
01:24So if you're just kind of using him as a measuring stick, even though Cherokee Nation is a maiden,
01:28that was a really good effort, and they paid $1.1 million for this guy, so I know they had high expectations for him.
01:35You cut off $500,000 because that's just $1.15 million.
01:40I'd love to be able to cut off $500,000 and act like it was nothing, right?
01:44Exactly. It's interesting that they don't ship Explorer out, but still ship Cherokee Nation.
01:49I don't know if that's a bullish sign, but I could take it as such.
01:53I don't know if he's going to project the fastest on projectors because he's coming out of a two-turn race.
01:59I'd be shocked if the plan here was a California Bob Baffert horse with speed isn't to go from the inside.
02:04I think he's very dangerous.
02:06Dr. Kapoor is right next door.
02:08This horse has a dam who was a four-time winner on the turf, was a stakes winner, was great at stakes place.
02:14He actually just beat a field where the runner-up came back to win next time out over at Churchill Downs.
02:20And you look at his speed, you go two sprints to a route for him, feel like he'll be forwardly placed
02:24and probably up there right in the mix with Cherokee Nation.
02:28Yeah, the battle up front could happen.
02:30He's likely to be amongst those you mentioned.
02:32The turf-y bottom-side pedigree, the late, great John Asher instructed many that turf-y bottom-side pedigrees play well
02:41over the Churchill Downs' main track when handicapped in the Kentucky Derby over the years.
02:46I'm not in love with his chances, but I thought that was worth mentioning.
02:49The number four soldier and diplomat has won two of his three starts.
02:53And the one race he didn't win, he got caught up on the front end.
02:57And I think he was on the lead there.
02:59What I really like about his other two races, Scott, in particular his victory last time out,
03:04he showed that he can sit off a little bit and he can switch off and he can pass horses if need be.
03:09In a field like this, where you have a couple others who have shown speed, especially down to his inside,
03:14I think that could be really key for him to hopefully not get caught up in a battle with those two.
03:19And if, you know, further ado ends up being the heavy favorite in here,
03:23keep in mind, soldier and diplomat beat further ado when they raced against each other in a sprint at Saratoga.
03:29So I think soldier and diplomat fits pretty well in this group.
03:32Yeah, you know, don't get overworked over his pedigree, in my opinion, because they spent $950K.
03:39There's not a lot in the pedigree to show that.
03:41So I think he's kind of an outlier in his family, if you will.
03:45So not worried about the fact that he is bred to sprint, but he really got better last time out.
03:50They spent a fortune for him.
03:51His lone poor effort came in the hopeful in his second start.
03:55I think he's got a big shot.
03:56The win was also over this track at Churchill Downs.
03:59Very connected, comes off of a third place finish.
04:02He was behind Universe, the number seven.
04:04They both raced against each other on October the 26th.
04:07Very connected, was just up late for third.
04:10He was out wide.
04:11He is a half sibling to a grade three winner named Hidden Connection.
04:14What do you think about this guy?
04:15Well, I mean, he's progressing.
04:17That's what you can say.
04:18He has no speed, but the longer, you know, as he continues to move forward,
04:22he continues to finish better and better.
04:24So if they go fast early, don't be surprised if he takes another step forward
04:28and sneaks into the underneath spots.
04:30Yeah, on paper, his body of work looks good, as you said.
04:34Like, you see the progression in each of the races there.
04:37So he was a horse who I dismissed initially, but I started warming back up to.
04:40And if you're playing pick forwards, pick fives, might be a horse you want to throw in.
04:43To further ado, Scott, I mean, this horse won by 20 lengths last time out.
04:49You don't see horses win like this, especially at Keeneland, where there's a short stretch here.
04:54He just puts them away, and he starts pouring it on late in this group.
04:58Now, he earned a big speed figure in this race.
05:02And I really get – I have a tough time with horses like this
05:06because you don't really think they can go forward off that race.
05:09It's like they only can come backwards a little bit.
05:11Now, he can come backwards and regress, and that still might be enough to beat a field like this.
05:16But what do you do with further ado?
05:18Well, he's a one-number horse, and that one number is at Keeneland.
05:20In my time at Kentucky, I just learned that the two tracks don't play exactly the same.
05:26So the price – when you combine the price with those two things that we expect regression off of one big number
05:31at a different racetrack that plays different, I just don't think he's a good bet in here.
05:36Yeah, I completely agree.
05:37We moved to the seven universe, so I think it's drawn really well in this race.
05:41Scott, this guy's multiple graded stakes placed.
05:44He's shown us that he can sit off a little bit.
05:47He comes off of a second-place finish in the street sense at Churchill Downs.
05:51He took the lead early in the stretch, but he couldn't hold off incredible.
05:55But he did finish two lengths in front of the horse we were just talking about very connected.
06:00Yeah, you know, the question for me – or the positive to me is they took the blinkers off,
06:04and he still showed speed.
06:05So that's a good sign he's relaxing a little bit better.
06:08He was the best of the speeds in those races.
06:10Another horse that I didn't put in my top couple, but he certainly wouldn't surprise at all.
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