OU vs. Alabama: Epic Showdown with Playoff Implications

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00:00What a game we're going to have on deck here.

00:01OU and Alabama.

00:04Defense, yes.

00:05To the victor go the spoils today, but also,

00:08do we have an elimination game, Joe, between both of these teams?

00:10Because the loser has got some ground to make up and needs a lot of help.

00:13The winner, in prime perspective here, to make that college football playoff.

00:18Yeah, for Alabama, they could afford a loss.

00:20And I don't want to say afford a loss,

00:21but they're not in the similar type of situation as Oklahoma.

00:25Oklahoma enters this game basically on life support,

00:28picked up a critical victory a couple weeks ago against Tennessee on the road,

00:3233-27.

00:34They are battle-tested this year, 3-1, straight up in road environments

00:38by an average margin of victory, winning by 21.3 points per game.

00:42But you have a red-hot Alabama team.

00:45After the loss to Florida State, they have won eight straight, Donnie,

00:48by an average margin of victory of 19.2 points per game, 5-0 at home.

00:53They've won those games this year in Brian Denny by four touchdowns,

00:5728.2 points per game.

00:59And it's contrast in styles, right?

01:01Blue-collar mentality out of Oklahoma in their offense.

01:04John Mateer, methodical at times, not as explosive as Alabama and Ty Simpson.

01:09But let's not forget, extra week of prep.

01:12You're talking about a front seven in Oklahoma that's only given up 82 rushing yards

01:16per game, 2.5 yards per carry.

01:19And Alabama still can't run the football consistently.

01:21But consistently, I'm calling for the upset.

01:23Oklahoma outright over Alabama.

01:27I think the extra week of prep benefits them.

01:30I believe in Mateer.

01:31Somehow, someway, they strike the upset.

01:33Now, you do have the extra week, which we just talked about in the game previous,

01:36which does make a big difference.

01:37You have two weeks to prepare.

01:38You guys should be rested and ready, even though you have tough road games

01:40that you're going to play.

01:41But look at this, Joe.

01:42That look-ahead line between Oklahoma and Alabama, at least the FanDuel Sportsbook,

01:46was 8.5.

01:46Like, we're at 6.5.

01:47We even had some 5s and 5.5s at some outlets here throughout the week.

01:51But it seems like we're probably going to settle, and maybe, at that 6.5 to 7 range.

01:55I don't know if we get the 7 points.

01:56But, Joe, Oklahoma plays really good defense.

01:59Mateer, the way he started the season, you thought that Oklahoma would be a little bit

02:02more offensive.

02:02They're not, but that's okay.

02:03As long as you're winning football games, you win with defense.

02:05I get that.

02:06Talk to me about this 45.5, because it hasn't moved much all week, Joe.

02:10Yeah, I think an under would favor probably Oklahoma, and an over would favor Alabama.

02:16And Alabama typically has struggled in these games.

02:19They were an under against Vanderbilt, under against Missouri.

02:21I believe they were under against Tennessee.

02:23They had a 58.5, 59 number in those games.

02:27So, Alabama's been trending to the under in a lot of their games.

02:30I think if you're Oklahoma right now, and let's not forget, they won 24-3 last year

02:35against Jalen Milrow, shut down completely that offense at Kalen DeBoer.

02:39They are 5-0 this year.

02:41Every time they hold opponents under 100 yards rushing, they win those games by an

02:47average margin of victory of 23 points per game.

02:50You look at Alabama only averaging 3.5 yards per carry.

02:53They have to get Ty Simpson into long third downs and see if they can win and get off

02:58the field to potentially give a short field to John Matier.

03:01In this type of game, Donnie, even though the numbers suggest under, I might slightly go

03:08over because we're not seeing 50, 51s, or 52s in the market.

03:12We're seeing 45s.

03:14Yeah.

03:14I think in this type of game with everything in the line, I would go lean to the over 45

03:20and a half in this matchup.

03:22Yeah, we're going to hit a ton of these games with the props in hour number two here with

03:25Joe.

03:25But just, I want to ask you this question.

03:26Ty Simpson's been phenomenal.

03:27One of the guys in the leaders in the clubhouse in the odds race to be the Heisman this year.

03:31Simpson, 296 pass attempts, Joe.

03:35One interception.

03:36So I'm going to give you this simple concept right here.

03:38You see Ty Simpson 8-1 to win the Heisman there with all his great statistics.

03:42If they do not get a turnover for Oklahoma, can they still win this game?

03:46And I don't mean fumble.

03:47I mean an interception.

03:48Because you said they got to heat that pocket up and get him off his spot here.

03:51He's only thrown one interception, Joe.

03:53You got to get turnovers.

03:54Maybe multiple turnovers.

03:55Yes, and that's the one thing I think when you look at the turnover margin here.

03:59Alabama plus 10 entering this game.

04:02Oklahoma minus 5, right?

04:03So you have to win the turnover battle in this ballgame.

04:06To your point, maybe it's a fumble or third downs.

04:10Third down defense for Oklahoma is solid.

04:1333% entering this matchup.

04:15So maybe they're not getting, let's say, turnovers, but they're holding Ty Simpson

04:19to potentially field goals and not touchdowns.

04:22That's an opportunity to potentially steal it.

04:25But I will say this, if you're Oklahoma, you need Mateer to ball out today.

04:29Because, again, you look at Alabama secondary, they've held basically seven opponents,

04:35excuse me, Donnie, under 200 yards passing.

04:38That is the key.

04:39Can John Mateer stretch that defense over the top?

04:43If he can, they're going to be live.

04:45I think they take a more aggressive approach.

04:47They have an experienced quarterback, and that's why I'm calling for the upset.

04:51That's why I'm calling for the upset.

04:52That's why I'm calling for the upset.

04:53That's why I'm calling for the upset.

04:54That's why I'm calling for the upset.

04:55That's why I'm calling for the upset.

04:56That's why I'm calling for the upset.

04:57That's why I'm calling for the upset.

04:58That's why I'm calling for the upset.

04:59That's why I'm calling for the upset.

05:00That's why I'm calling for the upset.

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