00:00Let's get on out there, Scott, because this first race we're going to talk about, the Claiming Crown Jewel, has a massive, massive field, so we'll get through this one as quick as we can.
00:08On paper, I thought there were a couple speed horses in there, and one of them looks like Gilded Kraken from down on the inside.
00:15He's coming out of some strong races, Scott, but he seems like he's kind of a one-dimensional speed horse, so I don't know if this race sets up for him all that well.
00:22I agree with that. When I look at this race, I'm going to definitely wager on this race.
00:26I like it from a handicapping perspective, and I'm going to play against horses that are going to be forward.
00:31I think Gilded Kraken, down on the inside, no bargain with speed to his outside.
00:36Scott, you and I have already talked this week about this race before.
00:39I know one of those horses you might be wagering on is the two cadet cores who should get a really nice trip coming from off the pace in here.
00:45Yeah, 15 for 41 in his career. I think he's amongst the best finishers in the field.
00:50If you look at the time for him pace projector, he doesn't have the chiclet, but with the inside draw,
00:55I think he's got a chance to save ground and have the best final punch, and that's the horse I like most in this spot.
01:01Happy Strike is really sharp. He has won four in a row, but his wins have been over at Prairie Meadows.
01:07It's a racetrack that's a little bit softer company than what he's going to be facing on Saturday,
01:12so I kind of want to make him prove it to me before kind of seeing where he stacks up.
01:16I agree, and if you're not familiar with the different tracks, I think the best way to kind of look at it
01:21is look at the price he was in the races beforehand. It's similar class levels, right?
01:26I mean, he was 10, 50 to 1, and 30 to 7 to 1, and badly out-finished.
01:31Then he gets to Prairie Meadows. He's a short price and able to win.
01:34I think this is a pretty tough spot for him.
01:36As we move to overstatement, we're coming at a horse who was a winner last time out at Keelan.
01:41We have a replay of his win last time out.
01:44I thought this was a good performance, Scott, but he's going to need to kind of step up again off of this effort.
01:49He does have a win at Churchill Downs, and with his running style, he could get a nice trip.
01:55I think they'll be moving early on in here.
01:57I just don't know if he's quite good enough to beat this field.
02:00Right, yeah. I mean, when I talk about playing against speed,
02:02you kind of want to have horses with somewhat of this running style.
02:05He might not be all that far off of it, but the mile I want an eighth,
02:08and he has been taking on lesser company.
02:10I'm a little bit dubious on whether he's going to be finishing full run against this group.
02:14We have alternate reality next. He's going to add the blinkers,
02:18and for me, I'm a little bit concerned because he's a horse who's 0 for his last six,
02:23and he's not been really successful going longer.
02:26We've only seen him going this mile in an eighth trip a couple times.
02:29What are your thoughts on alternate reality?
02:31Yeah, 0 for 5 at the distance. The blinker is going on.
02:34It seems a little bit of a stab.
02:36It's good to see Brian Hernandez Jr. back in the saddle.
02:38Kentucky Derby winning rider on Mystic Dan was hurt out a little while.
02:42Joe Sharp, Arno, he rides for here, just hasn't been quite as hot as they have been most of the year.
02:47Well, Laka is a deep closer. He has a couple wins at Churchill Downs.
02:51He was able to get by alternate reality in that most recent win on September the 28th at Churchill.
02:56What do you think about his chances here?
02:58Well, another horse that will be, you know, potentially with the right running style.
03:01He's run some good races over here, and he's got, he's 2 for 5 at the distance,
03:05but one of those races is a recent one.
03:07It's the Presque Isle Bound, and that's over a different surface.
03:11So, little bit questionable if this is the right surface and he's good enough,
03:15but maybe he's running on for a slice.
03:17Give you some pros and some cons for double your money.
03:20Has some speed, can pass horses, 12 straight top three finishes,
03:24and we're watching one of the wins right here.
03:26This was most recently at Aqueduct, so he showed us he can step up and win at Aqueduct.
03:31I do wonder, though, a lot of his best races have been at Parks.
03:35He's probably going to be forwardly placed in this race,
03:38and I'm not sure if that's exactly where you want to be.
03:40So, I can go back and forth on him, Scott.
03:43He wouldn't really shock me, but I like others a little bit more.
03:46Yeah, and he's one of the shorter prices, 8 seconds in those races.
03:50So, while he runs his race, he doesn't always have that nose for the wire.
03:53He's cutting back in distance, but the one positive I'll say,
03:56and I don't really love him that much,
03:58but this is a barn that I think this is their only horse.
04:00So, they clearly are very mapping out their plan all along here.
04:05So, double your money.
04:06He's in good form.
04:07I could see him hitting the board.
04:09Lagree is the next one, and Scott, I like this horse a little bit.
04:12It had a big price.
04:13I think you can put a line through his most recent race on the turf.
04:16You can look at that August 31st race at Saratoga.
04:19He's a pretty good fourth behind three horses who would all be very tough in a spot like this.
04:24The only time he was in for the tag, he won.
04:26That was the race that qualified him for this.
04:29Is he going to need the right kind of trip?
04:30Is he going to need to improve a little bit?
04:32Yes and yes, but I'm hoping he can sit maybe fourth or fifth in here just behind the speeds,
04:37and he should be a really big price.
04:39So, a horse I'm going to be including.
04:40Yeah, I got taken there by Al Stahl who didn't take a large segment of his horses.
04:46Spotted him to win.
04:46He was in a good spot.
04:48He got claimed.
04:48Now, he has to take on tougher company.
04:51I'm not as high on him as you, but at 30 to 1 with the right potential running style,
04:55I will leave it aglone in terms of talking you off him or anybody out there.
05:00I think you like the next horse a little bit more at a decent price, too.
05:03A horse who comes out of a fourth at Ellis Park was well behind Burnin' Hop,
05:07but this is one who could get some pace to run at, has run well at Churchill Downs,
05:11and has been in some pretty sharp barns.
05:13Do you give this guy a chance?
05:14I do.
05:15I think he, you know, may be on the win end a little up against it,
05:18but he was the one that had the late LP chiclet on the time form U.S. pace projector.
05:23He could be making the last move or one of them.
05:26Two of his four wins are over this track,
05:27and I like that they went back to reclaim him.
05:30These same connections, HRH Racing and Eddie Keneally, the trainer.
05:34HRH Racing, they generally own one horse at a time.
05:36I know them.
05:37This horse could be live at a big price.
05:39Burnin' Hot is sharp.
05:40He's won four of the last six.
05:41Loves Churchill.
05:43He can get the distance, but he is a pretty one-dimensional speed horse,
05:46and if there are, you know, three horses that all want to go forward in there,
05:50it might make life really difficult on him early.
05:53Yeah, he's the kind of horse that I'm going to let beat me in here.
05:55Obviously, he comes in in great form, but they're smaller fields he's been against.
05:59He's had things his way on the front end.
06:01I think he's going to have to earn it in here, and I'll tip my cap if he's able to.
06:05Dan Samoa is really honest, Scott, but he just doesn't mind settling for those smaller awards, right?
06:11You can see he's got the five wins, 10 seconds, 8 thirds.
06:14So maybe an underneath type to use in some of the bottom of Exotics,
06:18because I could sure see him picking up some pieces here.
06:20I just don't know if he's this good.
06:21Yeah, and he also has a tough post, but the price is big.
06:25He's hit the board in four of his eight-star tier,
06:27and he does have potential to run a running style,
06:29but he could get caught very wide early in this race.
06:32It's tough to knock Navajo Warriors' overall form as of late.
06:36I mean, he's won five in a row.
06:37He's done it at a couple different tracks, Santa Anita, Saratoga, Churchill.
06:41He was in the Bob Baffert barn early in his career.
06:44I like a lot about him, just the price.
06:46I don't want to take too short a price on him in a big field like this.
06:49He comes out of a race where the track favorite closer is as well.
06:52So this is the kind of horse you're going to look more to poke holes in.
06:56Obviously, there's a lot to like about him.
06:57He's got the top rider in the country coming in in great form.
07:00Point Doom is one of those speed horses we were talking about.
07:03He's sharp right now, Scott.
07:04He's won two in a row, but he's drawn way to the outside.
07:08He's got speed down to the inside and speed a little inside of him there.
07:12So he's going to really earn it if he wins this race.
07:14Yeah, and one of his rather, this two-star, two-back,
07:17I went back and watched, he takes a lot of urging to get out of the gate.
07:20And that might work from the inside.
07:21It's going to be a tall task here for a horse that's another one in good form,
07:25but has done his best running on the front end.
07:27Rounding out the field is American Law.
07:29His best races were about 2023 to the middle of 2024.
07:33He hasn't quite gotten back to that level, and he's hooked way out wide.
07:37Another one who has a lot of minor awards, lots of second and thirds too.
07:41He's going to have to earn a minor award here the hard way
07:43because he's very likely to be stalking wide with three speeds at least to his inside.
07:48He's one of the least likely winners here, but again, a big price.
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