Exploring the Grade Two Remson at Aqueduct Race Seven

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00:00So let's head on out and take a look at race seven for Aqueduct that starts our late pick

00:07four sequence.

00:08It's the grade two Remsen.

00:10And in this race, we can think about the winner of last year's Remsen, who was Dornick, who

00:15came back to win the Belmont, win the Haskell.

00:17Sierra Leone was also in that race, as was Domestic Products.

00:21So we had Breeders' Cup Classic winner and another Breeders' Cup also ran in that race.

00:26It was a really strong group.

00:28Possibly one of those horses this year is Tux from the inside.

00:31It could be a very live runner, but Alexa, I'm going to start out with two of the horses

00:35that we have.

00:36We're going to go four deep on our pick four.

00:38One of those is Tux, who is really nice.

00:40That was a very good win in that career debut.

00:43And then the second one is Aviator Guy.

00:45This is a horse who I think will have no problem going the mile in an eighth distance.

00:49So some of these horses may not be quite ready to go this long yet.

00:52I don't think that'll be the problem with Aviator Guy.

00:55He probably needs a little pace to chase in here.

00:57But for Tux, he'll probably be forwardly placed.

01:00Aviator Guy, I think he'll be sitting and making one late run.

01:03Why don't you tell the folks about the other two that we're going to use in the Remsen?

01:06Yeah, we're also going to use the number four, Studley Do-Right, who won his first round.

01:10Named after me.

01:11Is that right?

01:12And then he looked like he might not be all that we thought he was going to be with a

01:18few disappointing races.

01:19Then last race, they stretched him out to a mile and he ran his best ever to win against

01:25Stakes Company.

01:26So this will be the longest he's gone.

01:27Like you said, Gino, this is a long race for two-year-olds, but he's handled the distance

01:31so far.

01:32And then the five, Kewaydin, is the morning line favorite, heavy favorite for Chad Brown.

01:37And rightfully so, he ran a really impressive winning effort last out in his second start

01:41with the fastest figure that anybody in here has ever run.

01:44So if he improves off that, it's probably his race and probably easily so.

01:49But if he ends up getting a lot of pace pressure from Tux or even Poster, then I think he could

01:54fold.

01:55I mean, you just cannot leave off of your ticket, but we're sure going to root against

01:58him to try to get a longer-priced horse in.

02:01Hoping for a little more value there.

02:02So we'll use four horses to try to move through the Remsen, which is the first leg of this

02:06pick-four sequence.

02:08We move to the second leg of the pick-four sequence.

02:10This one's for the fillies, the two-year-old fillies.

02:12It's the grade two Demoiselle.

02:13Alexa, you're going to talk about a really talented filly that we're going to use from

02:17the rail.

02:18She's no doubt the horse to beat, right?

02:20She's absolutely the horse to beat.

02:21And the price reflects that four-to-five favorite, been out twice, won both by over

02:27five lengths and just seemed to have more.

02:29This is a lot longer with it being a mile and an eighth, opposed to six and a half and

02:33seven furlongs that she's run so far.

02:35But I honestly think that's a plus for her.

02:37I think she'll like the added distance while others could struggle with this distance increase.

02:41So it's also noteworthy they spent $700,000 on this filly as a yearling.

02:46So, you know, she must be something visually quite spectacular, as well as being a daughter

02:53of a stakes winner.

02:54Yeah.

02:55When you look at what she's done, too, she defeated a next out winner in her debut.

02:59I guess the only knock that I would have on her, it's not really a knock, it's that both

03:02of her wins, she's been able to sit just off the leader to the outside in a very comfortable

03:08position.

03:09And because she draws the rail in this race, she probably won't get that same exact trip

03:13that she's been able to get in both of her wins.

03:15So for some horses, when you have a different dynamic or when things are different, it can

03:19be a little different, but she is certainly the one to catch and certainly the one to

03:23be in here.

03:24And they'll all have to have their A be on their A game in order to get the better of

03:28her.

03:29But I think one horse that should have an opportunity to going longer and actually be

03:33visually was visually impressive at six and a half.

03:36That was Beauty Rain.

03:37So we're also going to use the number eight in here drawn towards the outside.

03:40She can sit off a little bit, too, if she has to.

03:42So that gives us another, if for some reason the rail draw or something happens with Mohima

03:48down inside, we have a couple opportunities in here and Beauty Rains will give us a little

03:52bit more value in this one.

03:54So we're going to go too deep with the one and the eight in the second leg of the pick

03:58four sequence.

03:59Now we can talk about producer Rich's favorite race, the Cigar Mile.

04:03I know he loves those stogies.

04:04Why don't you recap our selections for this one, Alexa?

04:08Yeah, we're actually using all four in here that we talked about earlier that we liked

04:11Mulligan at three to one, who will look to finish out his four year old campaign with

04:16a five and one record, taking an early lead and fending off the rest.

04:20We'll also use the number seven locked, who ran his lifetime best race last out after

04:24that year long break and will hope to improve again off that effort.

04:29The number nine Senor Buscador at six to one of the leaning earner in here with nearly

04:3413 million dollars in earnings.

04:37I did not stutter.

04:38Yeah, that's true.

04:39It's crazy.

04:40He's a deep closer is going to try to pick him off at the end and then the other closer

04:43number 11 post time with the husband, wife, trainer, jockey duo, Britney and Sheldon Russell.

04:49So we have two horses that will be more forwardly placed in there and then two of the horses

04:52that are going to drop way back and they're going to be making their one late run at the

04:56end.

04:57So hopefully we get through the Cigar Mile and we get to race number 10, which is a first

05:00level allowance race.

05:02This race might have been the most tricky in the sequence because you have so many horses

05:06in here.

05:07Alexa that I thought were evenly matched that kind of look like each other.

05:10So it'll really come down to trip.

05:11You're going to start us out with the four and why don't you talk about the four and

05:15the seven because you like them a little bit better.

05:17Yeah, I like I like the four commuted quite a bit has been improving every race and seems

05:21to be running better figures at a mile or more, you know time for me as projector if

05:25you see that there predicts him to be kind of far back at the half mile mark and then

05:30rally for a very close second finish to the seven.

05:33I am expecting and hoping him to be a little bit more for a little less than they think

05:37at that half mile mark, but again close finish with the seven which will also use Reynolds

05:42Channel.

05:43They spent $300,000 on this quote as a yearling from a sire who's only stands for 5,000.

05:49He's made back a little over half of their investment so far and just has run really

05:53consistent fast numbers this summer.

05:55This is his first back out since September and trainer Bill Mott is really good with

06:00horses off the layoff with a 22% win rate with over $2 ROI.

06:05So a couple others that we'll use in here treaty obligation the number six what I like

06:10about this particular horse.

06:11This is a horse who had kind of been knocking on the door for a while a lot of seconds and

06:14thirds and then put it all together.

06:16Sometimes we call that the light bulb angle when a horse wins and then they come right

06:20back and they win their next start.

06:21It's like they figured things out and this one has a little versatility there too will

06:26also use quick to accuse a horse who likes aqueduct and a horse who will absolutely pass

06:30horses late.

06:31So if they go too quick, this will be a horse who can sit off the pace and who can pass.

06:36Let's take a look at the pick for ticket.

06:38How are we going to put it all together?

06:39I think this week we end up spending 64 bucks.

06:42Remember how you add this up you multiply the amount of horses you use in each race.

06:47So in race seven, we use four horses race eight.

06:50We use two four times two is eight times four is 32 times four.

06:55Then you divide that by two because it's a 50 cent pick for altogether.

06:58I know it's a lot of math.

06:59I know it's a lot of math, but it's pretty simple when you do it that way and it's just

07:03a $64 pick for ticket.

07:05So hopefully we lead you in the right direction this week.

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