Analyzing Race Strategies and Horse Performance Insights

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00:00I think we can kick things off from the inside with Piper's Factor going a mile on the turf.

00:06Two starts back was going a mile and a 16th, showed speed.

00:09Last time out was going seven furlongs.

00:11I think he should be forwardly placed, but he got a pretty good trip in his last race, Scott.

00:15And the winner of that one, Cruden Bay, just blew right on by him.

00:20I think he can be part of the pace, but I'm not sure if he's good enough to hang around for a piece.

00:25Yeah, I would think he's going to be forward as well.

00:27The one thing I'd put in his corner to give him maybe a chance to move forward here is I do think he might be better at two turns instead of one.

00:35I also think he might be better with being a little more forward.

00:38He got a good trip for overall from a macro level, but I don't know if that's the way he wants to win races.

00:43Great point. Some horses are particular if they want to be on the lead.

00:47They don't necessarily do as well coming from off passing horses, kind of flipping the switch on and off when they have to change gears.

00:53We move to the number two, Twin City, who won going seven furlongs on the synthetic.

00:58That was back in May and is a stakes winner on the synthetic.

01:02And that's when you're reading this horse and kind of evaluating him.

01:05It's sort of tough because most of his work has been on the synthetic.

01:09He hasn't really been quite as good on the turf.

01:11Yeah, it looks like he's a cut below and you combine that with this not being his preferred surface.

01:16Understandable, I trainer Stuart Simon and the connections would want to take a shot at grade two, $200,000 when they get a chance to.

01:24But I think 20 to one on the morning line tells the story.

01:28There's a couple of really sharp horses in this race.

01:30One of them is crude in bay.

01:31This horse is 18 for 24 in the top three.

01:34He's won three of his last four.

01:36He's won four of his last six.

01:38He's a multiple graded stakes winner.

01:39And the race that we're watching here, Scott, this was after an 11 plus month layoff.

01:45So he should probably be even better than this race, a little bit sharper if he got some fitness out of this.

01:52He's just a pretty cool horse.

01:53He's tough to knock.

01:55My only real concern with him is his running style.

01:58He sometimes has to come from a little far out of it.

02:01And, you know, that could be the difference between winning and losing in a competitive race.

02:04But you sort of know what you're going to get from him.

02:07He usually always shows up with that bid.

02:08It's pretty impressive, though, that he has eight wins in nine seconds with the running style.

02:13I thought he ran it.

02:15I mean, you said it.

02:16The effort off the bench was impressive for a seven-year-old especially.

02:20It's hard for me to not think he has a massive shot in here.

02:24Race shape, obviously going to play a major role.

02:26But he's serious.

02:28Wyoming Bill is a lightly raced four-year-old.

02:31He's going to step up into stakes company.

02:33He came from off the pace and came running late.

02:36Feels maybe like another one who can come from off the pace if they go quick early.

02:40Yeah, just a two-time winner.

02:41This is a big step up in class.

02:43Does enter this spot in the best form of his career.

02:46It does seem to have found a home going two turns over the turf course.

02:50But, yeah, it'll be an interesting one that maybe can get a piece.

02:53You got the veteran Jose Lescano taking the fall for the first time.

02:57Another one of those really sharp horses in here is the number five, Dresden Rowe.

03:01In his 12 starts, he's never been worse than third.

03:04So he has not been out of the money in any of them.

03:07He's probably a little bit better on synthetic because he has not won on the grass yet, Scott.

03:11But I think he has the ability to run a little bit better on turf.

03:15I don't necessarily think it's surface that's been the issue for him.

03:18He's just a really sharp, cool horse overall.

03:21He can sit pretty close.

03:22He's got some versatility.

03:23I don't have many knocks on him.

03:25Perhaps just the price because he's going to be one of the shorter prices in here.

03:29Right.

03:29I mean, you look at his past performances and it pops out to you that he just always runs his race.

03:34He's hit the board in 12 of 12.

03:36You mentioned it, though.

03:37No wins on the turf.

03:380 for 3.

03:39All those starts over this course.

03:41He was shuffled back a bit in that last start.

03:44And the winner was a sweet delivery.

03:46He got the jump and ran a 97 buyer in victory.

03:49So I wouldn't knock him for that race.

03:51The surface switch back over to turf and the price of the questions.

03:55We move to Lucky Score.

03:57This one is a multiple graded stakes winner sprinting.

04:00He actually has a couple pretty good races at a mile.

04:03But he just hasn't been in his top form since about two years ago.

04:07And overall, his best races seem to be going shorter.

04:11He's also not that quick early on.

04:12So I kind of have a couple issues with him in this spot, Scott.

04:16Yeah, not the same horse as he once was, you know.

04:19And he's a seven-year-old.

04:20You don't expect him to find that form.

04:22It's going to be way out of it.

04:23I think this is just Mark Cassie taking a shot on a big day.

04:26Mason's Gamble was a winner in his last start going six and a half furlongs.

04:31But that was his first win in 15 starts.

04:34So can this seven-year-old now put back-to-back races together and step up against Graded Stakes Company?

04:40I think this is a horse that, you know, we saw his best effort was coming from way out of it in a one-turn race.

04:45Moving up in class, stretching out as an off-the-pace horse.

04:48These are not my style.

04:50I doubt he's going to be too many other people's style either.

04:53This next horse felt like one of the horses, if you're looking to bet this race, that was interesting to me.

04:57And that's gas me up.

04:59Curious what kind of price he ends up with Flavian Pratt aboard.

05:03I do feel like a couple in here will take more money than him.

05:06So if you're getting like five-ish to one, I think that's fair.

05:09I probably don't want to take like seven to two or less than that on him, Scott.

05:14But he comes off of a really nice win.

05:16He's lightly raced.

05:17And he seems like he has a couple excuses for some of the poor performances.

05:21Yeah, he's not impossible.

05:22I think, you know, it's very positive that he's able to finally put races back to back.

05:28He came back off a long layoff, won a race, and then he was on the bench for almost another year.

05:34We move to public sector.

05:35This guy won five of his first nine races.

05:38He was in the Chad Brown barn.

05:40But we're talking back in 2021, Scott.

05:42Since then, he's just won for his last 23.

05:46Now the positive, that win did come here at Woodbine over the turf course.

05:50But he just hasn't seemed like the same horse recently.

05:52No, you can tell by the name.

05:54It's a Clarevich Chad Brown horse, but not for a long time, like you said.

05:58Another one that seems very much up against it, especially with the outside draw.

06:02Well, here's another one of those really cool Woodbine horses that is a local horse.

06:06And that's just sharp.

06:07War Strategy is 15 for 19 in the money.

06:11He just always shows up with a good performance.

06:13He's drawn towards the outside.

06:15And if you're looking at the projector, Scott, they have War Strategy, the 10 and the number

06:19one, Piper's Factor, as the two horses that'll probably be the fastest early.

06:24So I think this is a horse who's a player who's definitely part of the early pace and who could

06:29at least hang around for a piece.

06:31He's honest as they come, like you said.

06:33But the far outside draw and the stretch out to two turns are big questions for me at 4-1.

06:38So I'll see you next time.

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