00:00And in this particular race, what makes it a little tricky to handicap, we have the one Seismic Beauty who's a Bob Baffert trainee who wants to be on the lead.
00:08We've got the four, nothing like you, who's a Bob Baffert trainee who wants to be sitting pretty close.
00:13The five, Ricci, is a Bob Baffert trainee who wants to be pretty close to it.
00:18So you have these three Baffert trainees who all want to be forward.
00:21As a handicapper, that makes it a little tricky sometimes to figure out how the race is going to set up.
00:26It sure does. It makes this race very difficult.
00:28But what you probably want to assume is that they're not going to all duel each other into defeat at the very most, or at least however you want to look at it.
00:36We start with Seismic Beauty, the number one.
00:39She has won two races in a row, one of them a graded stakes race.
00:43And the key with her, Scott, all three of the races in her career, when she's cleared the field and gotten the lead, she's won.
00:50And she's won impressively.
00:51So she really does seem to pour it on when she can get the lead here.
00:55This is some video of her winning the Santa Margarita back in May.
00:59It's hard to imagine her not needing the lead and wanting the lead.
01:02She was basically running off in this race that we're seeing now.
01:05She ended up putting a good performance together, but she's going to need to win this on the front end.
01:09I thought the number two Royal Spa is kind of an interesting shipper because this is a horse who had always teased of talent.
01:15But if you look at her speed figures, you can see she really stepped things up in the last like four races.
01:20And she's put together some pretty good performances.
01:23She was second behind Torpedo Anna last time out.
01:26I think the real key for her, Scott, in this race will be tactics.
01:30Take her back.
01:31She doesn't want to get caught up on the lead with some of these Baffert horses.
01:35If she can sit off the pace and pass some horses, I could see her at least running well, hitting the board in here.
01:41And if they go fast early, she might be one of the horses that takes advantage of that.
01:46She should get a really good trip.
01:48I mean, there's going to be an honest pace.
01:49We know that.
01:50You know, she's proven herself at two turns.
01:52I just wonder if her peak performance was the Shawnee.
01:55Torpedo Anna didn't get a huge number beating her.
01:58I don't know.
01:58Shipping cross country, third off the layoff.
02:01We'll see if Royal Spa is good enough.
02:03Mahina is the three.
02:04She's been a turf horse for most of her career, Scott.
02:07But even recently, she's over her last six on the turf.
02:10She's hit the board in a couple of graded stakes races.
02:13Only three races on the dirt.
02:15And they were sprinting way back before she even broke her maiden.
02:18Yeah, in 2023, it seems at this point this is just a shot maybe to hopefully sit back, hot pace, pick up the pieces, and get some fortunate black tights.
02:28Bob Baffert trains nothing like you.
02:31She's a multiple graded stakes winner.
02:33She has four wins in her career.
02:34And three of them have been monster victories where she's absolutely crushed the fields.
02:39But when she doesn't win, she doesn't really fire all that well.
02:42If you look at her last couple races, she's beaten 14 lengths, beaten five lengths, beaten nine lengths.
02:48So she's not necessarily coming into this race, Scott, in the best form.
02:51Now, off the layoff for Bob, obviously, he's throwing her to the wolves a little.
02:55I don't know what the other options were.
02:57But it looks like a horse unless she really moves forward in that first start as a four-year-old.
03:01That's kind of that next tier for Bob Baffert.
03:04Number five is Rishi.
03:05I remember when she came into the U.S. for the first time, I was really excited for her.
03:10And I thought I was maybe a little disappointed off of her performance.
03:14But when you start to look at her entire body of work now in the U.S., Scott, she has improved on speed figures in each of her races.
03:21She's getting better and better.
03:23And it's getting better as she's stretching out and going a little bit longer.
03:27She's winning this race really nicely.
03:29It was just a small field, but she beat Splendora.
03:32And I don't really have many knocks on her.
03:35The more I look at her, the more I kind of warm up to her.
03:38And with her draw, I think she was probably a horse who can sit second or third here.
03:43I expect her to run a really good race on Saturday.
03:45I think she is going to take the option of sitting just off the pace.
03:49One thing I wanted to say, last five years, Bob Baffert off a 60-120-day layoff, 14 for 39.
03:55This was with a top buyer, I'm sorry.
03:5714 for 39, 36% win rate, 301 ROI.
04:01So don't be worried about the break after that top number.
04:05We move to Little Hidden Port.
04:07Kind of a wild card.
04:08This one comes in from Argentina.
04:09We've seen this trainer, John Sadler, do a really nice job with horses that come into his barn that are imports.
04:15But this particular mare has not raced since December.
04:18So I'll be watching her.
04:20And if she runs well, then I'll play her back next time.
04:23Yeah, maybe once a little bit longer.
04:24Maybe does not.
04:25But like you said, I'm going to wait and see.
04:27Yeah, we might miss the real big price, but I don't see her winning this race.
04:31We round out the field with Copian.
04:33She is a multiple grade one winner, but she's coming off a little bit of a disappointing effort when she was beat over at Los Alamitos.
04:40Now, Scott, she's been one of the better fillies in training this year, but most of her success has been sprinting.
04:46So she'll have to prove that she can go longer in this race and win at a mile and a sixteenth for the first time.
04:52That's the problem.
04:53She's going to take a lot of money.
04:55She was awesome in the Derby City distaff.
04:58You know, I'm not holding the Great Lady M against her too much, but the price is what I'm holding against her.
05:03She's going to be on the far outside.
05:04She's going to have to rate, relax from that post, and prove she can finish at two turns.
05:09It's a lot to ask at a relatively short price.
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