The first Caribbean storm of the season

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish breaks down the details of a new storm that forecasters say is likely to become the first tropical storm of the season to strike the Caribbean.

Transcript

00:00And for the first time in the Atlantic hurricane season of 2025, we have a tropical wave that's

00:08actually made it off Africa and has made it in the Caribbean. And remember, it was two weeks ago,

00:14I said, this is the one to watch, because I had a feeling based on the weather pattern

00:20that this wave would find its way into the Caribbean, and it certainly has here. Here it

00:25is this morning, pretty robust area of showers and thunderstorms. I remember last week,

00:30we were concerned that the wave could be way down here. And if it would interact with the

00:35South American coast, that was what we were hoping for, that it would just dissipate. It didn't. It's

00:41a little farther north. So the first hurdle to get to the United States has been cleared with this

00:47wave, but there are many more hurdles on the way, thankfully, but we're going to have to watch this.

00:52Well, here it is right now. Now, still no center of circulation with this. So this is not even a

00:59tropical depression. It is a tropical wave. You can see on the satellite, you've got a boundary in

01:04here. You see that there's some wind shear on the northern side of this system. I'll show you that

01:10in a second. The concern I've always had, though, is that with this system, it'll be coming into the

01:17Caribbean. And there's just no inch. There's just this warm water. These are the anomalies.

01:24So water temperatures are typically 83, 84. But you're looking at this whole area where these

01:30temperature anomalies are three to four degrees above historical average. So that puts these

01:35temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. I mean, that is exceptionally warm water. And when you have

01:43this warm water, you can overcome the other challenges of dry air and wind shear. Now, I'm

01:49not worried about dry air. There's no dry air into this system. But we do have to keep an eye on the

01:54wind shear. And right now, as I mentioned, there is wind shear where the system is located. Here it is.

01:59You see the wind shear on the northern side, and you still have pockets of wind shear in here.

02:03So right now, the wind shear is the limiting factor. And of course, the other limiting factor

02:10is that this system is unorganized. Now, I want to give you a talking point here. Here are the scenarios

02:16for this system. Wednesday is the fork in the road. As this continues to move to the west, we always had

02:25a fork in the road. Made this this morning. All right, here's the key. Here is the key. If this system

02:32organizes quickly and strengthens, it will likely, it will likely get drawn north away from the United

02:40States. Good news for the United States. This could be catastrophic news, though, for Hispaniola,

02:47because if it strengthens, there's some indication that it could slow over the islands, producing heavy

02:52amounts of rain. And don't forget, you have a lot of mountainous terrain here. And if that happens,

02:56that would be catastrophic. There's also a scenario, though, that the organization is

03:02slow. Very slow. And if it is slow, then it continues on its way to the west. And then early

03:12next week, we're going to have to deal with this. So those are the scenarios right now. Which is

03:19correct? That's always a million dollar question. Well, I think if you look at the wind shear, you get

03:24an idea of what may happen. I want to show you this wind shear map right now. What I'm going to do is

03:31the path of this system is going to be in here. Now, this is the wind shear on Tuesday. You see the

03:38darker colors. That's the wind shear. You got strong wind shear here from the gulf into the tropical

03:44Atlantic. There is some westerly wind shear here. There's no question about it in here. So as this

03:49tracks in this area tomorrow, it still looks like it's wind shear. What about Wednesday? Let's go forward

03:55into Wednesday. Here it is. Now, it starts to lessen a little bit. Now, the European, the American

04:00models, that other scenario starts pulling it northward. If that's the case, there is some wind

04:05shear here. But what concerns me is if this system does stay weak, you'll notice what happens in this

04:13part of the basin as we get into the latter half of this week. Let's say it continues on its merry way.

04:19Here's Thursday. Here's Friday. You start seeing lesser colors here in the southwest Caribbean.

04:26And then by this weekend, assuming it does not pull northward, look what happens for the wind shear.

04:32It's even lesser. See? In here, you have less wind shear in here. So if this remains weak and then

04:40gets into the southwest Atlantic, if it doesn't fork, if it doesn't go into a storm Wednesday, Thursday,

04:48Friday, and it stays weak and it continues on that west track, I think it will become a hurricane then

04:54as we head toward the weekend. So the question is the two scenarios. Let me show you the modeling on this

05:00and I'll show you what we're looking at. It's the American model that has been very consistent with

05:07this system, showing it becoming a storm. Let me show it to you right now. So this is the American model.

05:13Let's go through it. Look at the red. You're going to focus in on, you're going to focus in,

05:18sorry, it's trying to get my pen here. You're going to focus in on this area in here. Watch the American

05:25model go with it. North. See that? There it is. This would be Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. European model,

05:33a little different. You see where it is? Stays weak, stays weak, never develops. Here we are on Thursday.

05:39There we are on Friday. There we are on Saturday. Here it goes in the Sunday, in the Monday, and then

05:45it's sitting here. This is the scenario that would have some potential for a U.S. landfall.

05:52It's a potential. I still think it's a lower probability, but it's a potential. So let's say

05:57it continues on its merry way. Does it have a shock coming into the United States? I think it does,

06:03but it's less likely. Here's what will determine this. It'll be, as we get into this weekend,

06:09look at this trough. Here's the storm down here. Look at this trough coming in. See that? Now this

06:16determines the track. Now, right now, this says the trough is too strong and it goes out to sea.

06:23I think that is the most likely scenario. But as we've been talking about, if this would impact the

06:28United States, and it's a big F, it's a big F, it would be this trough's a little slower, it's a

06:34little back in here, and it would guide toward Cuba, East Florida, and up the East Coast. It is a less

06:40likely scenario, but it's a scenario nonetheless, and it will all determine, does this state we can get

06:47in the Southwest Caribbean? And let's see what that trough does. Stay with us.

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended