00:00We issued this, when did we issue this forecast? Was it back in February or early March?
00:04Early March. We did that ahead of other sources so that people could be best prepared and know
00:09that we're going to be concerned about, yet again, another active hurricane season.
00:13Now, when you take a look at the numbers, you can see what we're forecasting, John.
00:18Historical averages on the bottom, middle shows last year.
00:21It does. And once again, we're calling for a active season. Last year, you could see the,
00:27of course, the 30-year historic average for the number of named storms, 14.
00:3118 last year. The call from AccuWeather, Hurricane, and long-range experts this year, 13 to 18.
00:37So near to above average once again. And a look at this, 7 to 10 hurricanes,
00:42which would be near or above the long-term average. 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
00:48And a big column over here, 3 to 6 direct U.S. impacts.
00:52And notice that also is near to above the long-term historic average.
00:59So another busy and impactful hurricane season on the way.
01:02And we want people now to take the advantage of the opportunity to best prepare both of the coast
01:08and then also well inland where serious impacts from flooding and wind and tornadoes can occur
01:14as well as a tropical storm or hurricane moves inland.
01:17All right, let's take a look at the water temperature anomalies because that's always where we like to start.
01:22Now, these anomalies, where we're comparing it to the 30-year historical average,
01:27the water is not quite as warm as it was last year,
01:30especially in what we call the main development region in the Atlantic.
01:35But it's still plenty warm enough, especially in the Gulf.
01:38It is. It sure is.
01:39And when you look at this map, when we have the oranges and then into the reds,
01:43we're talking about water temperatures that are 5 to 8 degrees above those long-term historic averages.
01:51So that warm water is fuel for developing hurricanes,
01:54and that's why we get concerned when there's a lot of warm water across the Atlantic Ocean
01:58as we've had over the last several years.
02:00And, of course, this warmth this year compared to the historic average,
02:03it's still above average but not as intense in the main part of the Atlantic Ocean.
02:08But look at what's been happening closer to home here, near the Bahamas and in the Gulf.
02:14Water temperatures there, in some cases, 8 or 9 degrees above the long-term historic average.
02:19There's been a marine heat wave that's occurred here over the last several weeks in that part of the Atlantic Basin.
02:26And those water temperatures, that's bad news because that can be fuel for these storms to intensify more rapidly
02:33as they approach land should storms develop.
02:36So that's a big concern.
02:37All right, let's go over some highlights, Sean.
02:39And because of that warm water, we are calling for a busy start and end of the hurricane season.
02:44The busy start during the month of June and early July.
02:47In fact, we're worried about homegrown development here as we get into next week.
02:52More on that as we go through the morning.
02:53But rapid intensifications of the storms.
02:56The other thing we want to get people to understand, impacts from these landfalling storms,
03:03whether it's a tropical storm, tropical rainstorm, or hurricane, will extend well inland.
03:07That's such a key point.
03:08And that's one of the things when I'm talking to people sometimes that sometimes people may have the impression that,
03:15well, hurricanes or tropical storms only need to worry about that at the coast.
03:18But as we've seen so many times over history and then also last year in particular,
03:23look at what happened in the higher elevations of eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina
03:27with devastating flash flooding, the catastrophic flooding disaster that happened there.
03:33Oftentimes very serious life-threatening and destructive flooding can occur well inland.
03:38We had storms last year, even Beryl and Debbie, where those storms moved inland as tropical rainstorms.
03:44They lost wind intensity, but they brought catastrophic flash flooding to parts of the northeastern United States
03:50a thousand miles away from where the storm made landfall.
03:53So watch for those rain impacts inland.
03:55Also, Gulf Coast and Carolina is at higher risk.
03:59How do we determine that?
04:00Well, we take a look at the weather pattern and we look to the past, the forecast of future.
04:04We do.
04:05These are similar years where the ocean and weather conditions lined up with what we're expecting this summer.
04:11And a couple of areas really popped out.
04:13The Carolina coastline, the Gulf Coast once again, which was obviously a major concern last year,
04:19all the way from the upper Texas coast through Louisiana, through the Gulf Coast to Florida,
04:24and then a few hits of concern in similar years across the northeastern U.S. to Atlantic Canada.
04:29So those look like some of the areas that we're concerned can have a greater risk
04:33than the historic average for direct impacts.
04:36AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
04:38John, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
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