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00:00Eight and a half out of every 10 tickets right now, Joe, coming in on those Buffalo Bills.
00:04They're going to take on Atlanta tonight in game number one of the doubleheader on Monday Night Football.
00:08That line was four and a half.
00:09Most outlets join three and a half now, Joe.
00:11The spread line for Bills-Falcons is what?
00:15This is another one of these, much like last night, Donnie, pros versus Joes, right?
00:20The pros were on Kansas City.
00:22The public loved Detroit.
00:24Well, the public loves the Bills, Donnie.
00:27All the tickets, all the money on them.
00:29But the problem is this line keeps moving towards Atlanta here.
00:34So that's worth keeping an eye on.
00:37Also, keeping an eye on the health of some of these guys on the Buffalo Bills, especially in that secondary.
00:45Keep an eye on who's playing and who is not.
00:48The bottom line is I know a lot of people are also thinking shootouts, but we're also starting to see that money come in on the under as well tonight.
00:56That should be a very interesting first game up.
01:00Extra rest for the Atlanta Falcons as a payoff and a victory over the Buffalo Bills.
01:04Game number two, Chicago and Washington.
01:06Williams versus Daniels.
01:088-15 start game number two.
01:10Opening line, four and a half.
01:11Now we're seeing five and a half's out here.
01:13Nor'easter ripping up the coast.
01:14Could be a little bit of change in some weather conditions.
01:16The spread line for this game for you is what?
01:20Well, not only the weather you need to keep an eye on in this one, Donnie.
01:24You also need to keep an eye on not one, not two, but three of the defensive starters for the Bears likely to be back in this game.
01:33Wins, huge.
01:34Double digit wins.
01:36Wind gusts are crazy here.
01:38A lot of rain.
01:39Sloppy conditions.
01:40Yeah, if you haven't bet the under or been thinking about it sooner rather than later to do that.
01:47Absolutely.
01:48Watch out for those weather conditions.
01:49We'll see if it plays into it.
01:50But right now, bettors aren't scared off all that much on taking the over as it still sits around 50.
01:55The early line is always the place to be.
01:57But always so important on a Monday because we get to play armchair quarterback of what happened over the weekend in the NFL and also in Major League Baseball.
02:05Did you know, people, yeah, we're hyping it up.
02:06Two games on Monday Night Football, two games in Major League Baseball, the ALCS and the NLCS.
02:12It's on the right side.
02:13It's Joe Ranieri.
02:13Now it's time to bring in Tom Vecchio.
02:16It's our boy on the Sports Grid Network here.
02:17He knows what's good.
02:18He knows what's going down.
02:19He knows it was a big sports weekend.
02:21And he's here to bring that energy today, Tommy.
02:23How are you feeling?
02:24I'm doing good.
02:25Football and playoff baseball.
02:27I am still waiting to see who the Brewers will pitch in tonight's game.
02:33I haven't seen that announced yet.
02:34But Fred Peralta is going in game two.
02:36We've got action all over the place.
02:37Two games tonight.
02:38They're both early starts for you, Donnie.
02:40I'm ready to roll.
02:42Oh, it's beautiful.
02:43They lined this up perfectly for me.
02:44We're getting a 5 o'clock Major League Baseball game tonight and filtering into a doubleheader in the NFL that we don't have to wait up until midnight for that game to get over.
02:52So let's start down in Atlanta for this one, Tom.
02:54Buffalo and Atlanta.
02:55Josh Allen coming off that loss to the Patriots.
02:57A rested Atlanta Falcons football team.
03:01Joe and I talked about it earlier.
03:02Ticket count heavy on Buffalo's side, but some reverse line movement from four and a half down to three and a half.
03:08Nice total, 49 and a half.
03:09Keep in mind, there is a Northeaster that's bringing up the coast.
03:12But what we love about Atlanta, it's a dome.
03:15No effect in this game, which we'll talk about the second game in a moment.
03:18How do we feel about Buffalo Atlanta, Tom?
03:19What angles do you have in this one?
03:20I think this is a rather interesting game.
03:23You know, for a primetime game, we normally get, you know, some type of divisional matchup, rivalry, whatever it might be.
03:28You know, inter-conference matchup isn't something that we can say like, oh, you know, it's, oh, let's just take the points with the home team because they're the dog and it's a divisional matchup and they're going to play.
03:37We don't really have that here.
03:39I think everyone would agree that Buffalo is by far the better team when it's, you know, all said and done.
03:44They certainly have their issues on defense, but I would be expecting some points.
03:47I would expect Buffalo to win.
03:49Do I love the fact that it's three and a half now and you missed out on a four and a half?
03:53I wouldn't play the three and a half just because you missed the four and a half.
03:56But if you told me the Bills won and didn't cover, you know, it's a little bit of a cop-out answer, but I think that's the route we're kind of trending.
04:05If I'm Atlanta coming off the bye, I need to be able to run on this Bills team.
04:11I want nothing to do with a shootout against Josh Allen and this offense.
04:15Like, I need Josh Allen to stay on the sidelines as long as humanly possible here.
04:21So, who can help make that happen or who should we fade in this game here with Atlanta?
04:26Yeah, B. John Robinson, I was going to be the, you know, the big guy for the Falcons.
04:30They're going to be without Darnell Mooney, so their passing game is just a little bit weaker.
04:33As I've always said, you know, we can get these premium running backs.
04:36We're never getting a discount on their lines.
04:38And, you know, even looking to Robinson when it comes to rushing plus receiving, that's about 110.
04:42So, that does, you know, insulate you essentially from game script because if they do fall behind by the Bills, he will be involved in the passing game.
04:49But, again, to your point, Joe, they don't want to turn this into a 30-28 game or 31-28.
04:54They want to keep the ball out of Josh Allen's hands.
04:56And, you know, doing so, I think, will eliminate some players in the passing game.
04:59And that's Kyle Pitts.
05:00So, I think Kyle Pitts is a good talent.
05:02I continue to buy him year to year.
05:04I just don't love him in this matchup.
05:05The Bills, as a team, they've allowed 123 receiving yards total to opposing tight ends in all five games this year.
05:12They're actually very, very good against opposing tight ends.
05:15So, let's take Kyle Pitts under his receiving problem, just sitting at 40-and-a-half.
05:19You know, he's gotten to 37, 39 in a lot of these games.
05:22But, again, if they're trying to keep the ball out of Josh Allen's hands, that means they're going to be running it.
05:26There's just not a whole lot of passes to go around.
05:29Let's go.
05:30Game number two tonight, Tom.
05:31Chicago and Washington.
05:32That's an 8-15 start from the nation's capital.
05:34Some weather starting to creep in here.
05:36But still, the total, people are buying into it.
05:3849-and-a-half and 50s in the marketplace.
05:40But the side here for Washington, that look-ahead line, 4-and-a-half.
05:42It's up to 5-and-a-half across the board as a favorite here.
05:45How do we play this game tonight, Tom?
05:48The weather, obviously, will impact things.
05:51And if you are worried about the weather, you don't want to be involved in props, whatever it might be,
05:55I would say simply just take the under.
05:57Just take the under.
05:58Expect a lower-scoring game.
05:59I know both defenses have had their issues at times this year.
06:02But if you think the weather is going to impact things, and we're going to see this total plummet throughout the day,
06:07being at under 49-and-a-half is far better if it drops to 47, whatever it might be,
06:11which isn't as good of a number, obviously.
06:13But when it comes to this game, we have to impact, we have to evaluate the impact of that.
06:18Terry McLaurin is not going to be playing for Washington.
06:20And when we look back to last week versus the Chargers, it's obviously just a one-game sample size.
06:24And it is the first game back for James Daniels after his injury, so we have to also take that into account.
06:29But when we see 26 pass attempts for him and 11 targets went to Debo Samuel, we are approaching a 50% target share.
06:37So not looking at Debo as a primary option in this offense I think would be a mistake.
06:42So I like Debo.
06:42The fact that we're getting a sub-60 number on his receiving prop I think is absolutely fantastic.
06:47So I think we have to be looking at over 59-and-a-half.
06:49He is the guy for them in this passing offense.
06:52Zach Ertz is fine.
06:54Luke McCaffrey is fine.
06:56None of these players should be reasonably taking targets away from him.
06:59And then finally, let's go to Caleb Williams over on his passing attempts.
07:03I'm not sold on the Bears rushing game.
07:05I don't think it's very good.
07:06I think DeAndre Swift is just a league-average running back.
07:09And although the weather could play a part, the quick pass attempts for Caleb Williams should be there.
07:14So let's take him over that.
07:15We have 35, 30, 28, and 37 pass attempts from him.
07:19So we're roughly at this number.
07:20But with the bad defense on the commander side of things, quick passes with a healthy, healthy receiving core for the Bears should put them in a good spot.
07:29Nice.
07:30It's interesting, too.
07:31Marshawn Lattimore quietly is being that shutdown guy again.
07:36He did it last week against the Chargers.
07:38I think they only completed one pass throwing his way.
07:41I would imagine he's going to be on the number one receiver here for the Bears, Adunzee, right?
07:47So are we looking that maybe he's the guy to look to fade here as well tonight?
07:52You could certainly do that.
07:54And there's always a lot of talk about rookies post-buy.
07:58That's when they start to break out just because, you know, they need to get acclimated.
08:02Having that extra week.
08:03So either Colston Loveland or Luther Burden, along with D.J. Moore.
08:06So it's not like, yes, Roman Dunzee faces certainly a tough matchup, and him being eliminated from the offense will downgrade his props overall.
08:13But the fact that there are weapons out there, and if you are buying into Ben Johnson as an offensive guru, there are four other receiving options.
08:20Cole Komet, Colston Loveland, Luther Burden, D.J. Moore, and then Swift coming out of the backfield.
08:24That they could still move the ball.
08:25And again, quick passes for Williams instead of dropping back, taking seven-step drops.
08:31Tom, any quick looks tonight for that Major League Baseball card?
08:33I know we're waiting to see who Milwaukee's going to have.
08:35I have pre-star listed, but it's not official anywhere.
08:37We don't know there.
08:38Any looks between Seattle, Toronto, Los Angeles, and Milwaukee?
08:42I would play the Blue Jays simply going zigzag back and forth, and I would take the plus money on the Brewers at home.
08:48The fact that we're getting such a good number on them is very interesting.
08:51I would also lean over in that game.
08:53And you know what else I don't like, Tom Vecchio?
08:55The NHL is going strong, and now a great day of hockey.
08:58My Philadelphia Flyers opened up against Florida, then played Carolina and get Florida again.
09:03What are they doing to my team, Tom?
09:04What are they doing to them?
09:05All easy games to end the season.
09:07You're not going to play them later in the year.
09:09Yeah, exactly.
09:10Bobby Brink, Ben.
09:11Remember the name Bobby Brink, people.
09:13Thanks, Tom, for joining us Monday.
09:14Monday morning.
09:15We'll be right back after this quick break.
09:17Monday Night Football Doubleheader.
09:19It's how we get down.
09:20Make sure you watch the boys all along the network today.
09:22We're going to get you prepared.
09:23That always starts with the early line.
09:25Setting the table for the rest of your sports grid day.
09:27Donnie writes that along with Joe Ranieri.
09:29Let me ask this question, Joe.
09:31Because we do, it used to be like once in a blue moon, right?
09:34Sometimes I open the season at Doubleheader on Monday Night Football.
09:37Do you enjoy the Doubleheader on Monday Night Football?
09:40Or can it be, it's white noise for you?
09:42Yeah, football's on, so I'll watch it.
09:44But I know some people get excited that there's a Doubleheader.
09:46It doesn't move me all that much.
09:48Am I disappointed?
09:49No, but I don't love it all that much because at this time of the year, you have so many
09:53other things going on also at the same time where you don't really need football necessarily
09:57to carry the day.
09:58But how do you feel about the Doubleheaders on Monday Night Football?
10:00Could do without them?
10:01Okay.
10:02What is it?
10:02As long as I'm not watching the Jets or the Tennessee Titans on a Monday night, Donnie,
10:08I am good to go.
10:10It's, I, the bar is set very low, I think, for me there, mostly because I'm scarred as
10:16a Jet fan.
10:17But as long as they're competitive, I'm all for it.
10:20I mean, what, what's the other choice on a Monday night, Donnie, right?
10:23If you're going to play one regardless, you might as well give us two.
10:27You might as well, 7-15, 8-15, I can't complain about that.
10:31But let's get started in game number one down in Atlanta, Joe.
10:34Buffalo and Atlanta, of course, it's going to be Josh Allen versus Michael Penix.
10:37A 7-15 start tonight.
10:38The total opened up around 50 and a half.
10:40Still some outlets showing 50s, Joe, but primarily 49 and a half.
10:44Here's the line, though.
10:45Opened up at four and a half.
10:46We've now dipped to three and a half, which isn't a big line movement.
10:49Still stays over that key number of three.
10:50But I'm interested to see where this line actually ends at the majority of most outlets
10:54tonight.
10:55Why?
10:55Because eight out of every 10 tickets are coming in on the Buffalo Bills.
10:59Most people like to bet on the Buffalo Bills, but it feels like a really good spot for the
11:02Atlanta Falcons.
11:03Now, Buffalo did lose that game to the England Patriots.
11:06They're looking to bounce back.
11:07But this is a road game against a team coming off a bye and is rested with one of the best
11:11playmakers in the NFL, Embijon Robinson, coming out of the backfield.
11:15How do you start with this game, Joe, tonight with the line called three and a half and a
11:19total just under 50?
11:21Well, it's interesting, Donnie, that you're right.
11:23I mean, the betting public has looked at the Bills as a great bounce back spot here against
11:29Atlanta, who we still remember having been shut out a couple of weeks ago against this
11:35Carolina team, which, P.S., by the way, they're sitting at 500.
11:38So that loss doesn't look nearly as crazy as it did a couple of weeks ago.
11:42But the Falcons had extra rest.
11:45The Falcons have had had an opportunity to put it together.
11:49I don't trust this Falcons team.
11:51I don't believe Penix is the answer just yet.
11:56And I don't believe that this coaching staff is one that can put him in a spot to win this
12:01game against Josh Allen.
12:04So, you know, let's not forget the public is not always wrong here.
12:08I would not be wanting to sit there and hoping Atlanta can do enough in the fourth quarter
12:15with a young quarterback to beat Buffalo and Josh Allen.
12:19So to me, it would be Buffalo a pass.
12:22But I do like the total more than anything else.
12:25How do we play the quarterbacks tonight, too?
12:27Because we should get offense, Joe, a total close to 50.
12:29And again, that nor the nor'easter blowing winds and rain not going to happen because it
12:33is a dome.
12:33So a fast track tonight, which you love to see.
12:35Michael Penix coming in live at a 225 and a half passing prop here.
12:39Josh Allen, 228 and a half.
12:40So similar instances, just a little bit difference on the juice.
12:43Penix to throw two touchdowns plus 134.
12:45Allen to throw two touchdowns minus 132.
12:48Which quarterback are you more comfortable tonight in his props, Joe?
12:52Well, I, you know, I think both of these guys we've seen already.
12:56I don't think Josh Allen has thrown more than 30 or 31 passes in a game attempts here.
13:02Why?
13:03Because they run the ball, Donnie.
13:05They run it better than just about anybody.
13:07And that's what Atlanta wants to do, right?
13:09Atlanta wants to run the ball.
13:11They want to wear down this Bills defense.
13:14That's who they are.
13:16You know, Buffalo here.
13:17I don't think Josh Allen's going to have to drop back a whole lot tonight.
13:20I think they're going to establish the run.
13:22And I would look to fade both him and Penix at this point, because I don't think we're going
13:27to get some sort of wild shootout here tonight.
13:29Boy, I'd say, you get incredible, like, you know, leverage on Buffalo props.
13:33Like, if we're talking about, like, 225, let's call for Josh Allen to throw tonight.
13:37Leading receiver, Keon Coleman, 38 yards.
13:39Khalil Shakir, 48 and a half yards.
13:41James Cook, 12 and a half.
13:42Josh Palmer, 18 and a half.
13:43You don't need much to go over.
13:45From Atlanta's side, you're going to get Drake London at 72 and a half.
13:47And I do think that Buffalo Bills defense is vulnerable at times.
13:51I would look towards Drake London.
13:52But always, you see that B. John Robinson number at 31 and a half, you know, he's going
13:56to be heavily involved tonight.
13:57Any pass catchers, Joe, that you're looking at possibly tonight between these two teams?
14:01Yeah, I like Keon Coleman, too, as well here.
14:05I mean, Shakir is going to get the volume, right?
14:07But I think Coleman is the guy that they're going to be looking for down the field here
14:12against this.
14:13I mean, AJ Terrell is back for Atlanta, but I still think they're beatable in the secondary.
14:18Coleman is the guy I would focus on.
14:20Yeah, it should be a fun game to watch nonetheless here.
14:23Once we get back from the break, we're going to take a look at some of those touchdown scoring
14:26markets here that we can take a look at tonight with B. John Robinson, James Cook, and Josh
14:29Allen.
14:30And also, game two of our NFL doubleheader, which is the Commanders taking on the Chicago
14:35Bears.
14:36Feels like I'm going to talk about the Bears in weeks here.
14:38Rested and ready?
14:39It could be.
14:41Buffalo Bills, Atlanta Falcons.
14:42Big game here for both of these teams.
14:44Buffalo looking for a bounce back victory.
14:45Atlanta saying, hey, man, stop running away with us, Tampa Bay, right now.
14:49Even though they're so injured.
14:51The touchdown prop markets, which is what everybody loves to look at on Monday Night
14:54Football.
14:54B. John Robinson, minus 185 price.
14:57James Cook, minus 155.
14:59Josh Allen, around a plus 100, followed by Drake London and Tyler Algier.
15:03Is it just easy to say the minus 185 on B. John?
15:06But that's a heavy price point.
15:07Anybody, Joe, even down the list, including those tight ends for Buffalo, who you know,
15:12like to get involved, catching your eye tonight.
15:14Yeah, it's interesting here, right?
15:17Listen, I think Cook has got to be an automatic because inside the red zone, that is likely
15:23where they're going to go.
15:25But the tight ends have played a big role so far this year with Josh Allen and that offense.
15:31So it wouldn't shock me if Kincaid gets in that end zone there.
15:35But I do like, I'd certainly like Cook to at least have enough opportunities to make it
15:42worth laying that price.
15:43Yeah, he should, too, because you're looking at that second there.
15:46By the way, Landon has a decent defense this season.
15:48Beefed up there in the draft, you're getting one of your best cornerbacks.
15:50So I do like that approach where cornerbacks are back and looking at like the tight end
15:54process.
15:55Like for me, I always like to say, you know what?
15:56You got two tight ends that are viable in the red zone.
15:58They're plus, excuse me, plus 220 each.
16:02Take one of them there, you get a two to one price back.
16:04That's a fantastic night.
16:05So maybe that angle of taking a tight end here for the Buffalo Bills could make some sense.
16:09But that's game number one tonight, Joe.
16:11As we said, we have two games tonight that we're going to take a look at, the Chicago
16:14Bears and the Washington Commanders.
16:16This is the 8-15 game going to be played down there in the nation's capital.
16:21Drizzle to start the game, rain throughout the game possibility here.
16:25Wind speeds sustained of at least 12 miles per hour.
16:28But you know those gusts are going to be much higher than that.
16:31It's always tough to predict because in the morning here in the Northeast where I'm at,
16:35it's rainy and it's windy.
16:36If that storm moves through and gets a little bit easier, you might get a bonus here where
16:40some of these guys can say, you know what?
16:41We expected high winds.
16:42They're not here.
16:43We expected rain during the game.
16:44It's not here at this point.
16:45Or even Joe's like to take a look at, is it going to rain to start the game and then stop
16:49in the second half where we can have an advantage.
16:51But you take a look at the number in this game, minus five and a half on the move towards
16:54Washington and a total of 49 and a half.
16:57How are you playing this game between the Bears and the Commanders?
16:59So the problem with this game, right, is that if you're backing the Bears, you're trusting
17:06that Caleb Williams will do something that he has not done very well in his career, Donnie,
17:12and that is play on the road, win on the road, even be competitive on the road.
17:16He's got 38% success rate on the road here.
17:21He's got interceptions all over the box scores when you look at it.
17:26He's coming off an easy matchup with the Raiders in which he averaged less than six yards per
17:31attempt.
17:32This is going to be tougher here.
17:34Washington ranks number two in the NFL in creating pressure on the quarterback.
17:39And you know what's going to happen there.
17:42And once Caleb Williams is under pressure, you understand what's going to happen that.
17:46So this is tough here.
17:48I do trust Washington more than I do Chicago.
17:52And Chicago's getting some reinforcements back on the defensive side of the ball.
17:57It would be Washington or pass for me, but it would be nice to see Caleb Williams grow
18:03up and win a road game convincingly at some point in his career.
18:06Yeah, exactly.
18:07Like, it's one of those where you're expecting to step up an extra rest time here.
18:10You should be prepared for this game.
18:12And Washington is still banged up just a bit here.
18:14Obviously, Terry McLaurin's down.
18:15He's your top wide receiver.
18:16Debo Samuel coming into this game questionable with that heel issue.
18:19Maybe that flares up and you might have an advantage, but it is five and a half.
18:23I do lean on the points tonight, to be honest, because I do think maybe if the commanders
18:26win this game, I do think it will be close into the fourth quarter.
18:29I'm just not sure about the 49 and a half.
18:31You put this game in a dome, you're probably looking at the over, but there's nothing worse.
18:34And it's like, hey, man, I want the over and we'll drop over the middle because the wind
18:38carried the football and it was wet out here and it went through his fingertips.
18:41We all get that, Joe.
18:42But if we're taking a look here at some of the props, which include passing props for both of
18:46these quarterbacks, 221 and a half for Jaden Daniels, 234 and a half for Caleb Williams.
18:51If we look at the touchdown market, of course, it's always listed at one and a half plus money
18:55on Jaden Daniels and plus money on Caleb Williams.
18:57If you're looking at a quarterback tonight that you want to back, Joe, who is it?
19:02It would definitely be Jaden Williams.
19:04I mean, you know, I'm not a Caleb Williams guy at all, especially on the road.
19:07And I just gave you some of the numbers from last week.
19:10They're against a much easier team to throw against in the Raiders.
19:14And he still couldn't average six yards per pass play.
19:18So, you know, it's going to be dink and dunk city, I think, for Chicago here.
19:23In the meantime, Washington, you got to like it.
19:26I mean, no, you mentioned no McLaurin, right?
19:29But I think Jaden Daniels has more than enough weapons to be able to hit these numbers here
19:35across the board.
19:36And if I'm not mistaken, wasn't this the game that the Bears lost last year on the Hail Mary
19:43at the end of the season, right?
19:45Wasn't that that was the Eberflus head scratcher where that was the end of it?
19:50And we're going, you got to be kidding me.
19:52So maybe a little revenge for Chicago here tonight as well.
19:55That was the downfall of the Chicago Bears.
19:57They had a really good record going to win that football game and actually at the same time
20:01propelled the Washington franchise onto the NFC championship game at the end of their season,
20:05which gave them a win and sort of piqued them up.
20:07Roma Dunes at wide receiver.
20:09Joe, he's listed as the leader in the clubhouse in the odds market at 67 and a half, followed
20:13by Debo Samuel at 58 and a half.
20:15So there is some value down the charts.
20:17I was like Zach Ertz, 27 and a half.
20:19You take a look at Luke McCaffrey, maybe a backup wide receiver that can get a little
20:22bit extra targets here with some of the top guys down at 28 and a half.
20:26I like Roma Dunes.
20:27He's clearly the 1A on that football team.
20:30That might be a way to look.
20:31But again, looking at the passing props and all that, it's like, man, I just don't want to get
20:35burned by a lot of high winds.
20:37You saw yesterday an ugly performance between the Rams and the Ravens in that same area where
20:41that, you know, turning up, some rainy conditions, some windy conditions.
20:45I just don't want that to pop into it.
20:46But any wide receiving props you're looking at tonight in this game, Joe?
20:50Well, I mean, there is no doubt as far as usage goes in target share.
20:54You know, Roma's got the got it heads and tails.
20:57He is the favorite target of Caleb Williams, right?
21:00So whether it be red zone, whether it be in need of a, you know, third and short, third,
21:06four, third and five, this is the guy that he's looking at.
21:08But Dan Quinn knows that.
21:10And again, the problem with Caleb Williams has always been pressure in his face.
21:14And you know, Dan Quinn is going to bring that's what that Washington defense is all
21:19about.
21:19They blitz at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
21:23They're going to be coming after him again.
21:25And to me, this has got to be one in the trenches, given the weather situation.
21:30A dude, anytime touchdown at plus money, I don't think he's not scored in a game yet
21:35this year for him.
21:37Plus money, it may be worth a shot going that road, if anything.
21:41How about the rushing props?
21:42And it's usually, OK, let me look at the running back position, right?
21:44DeAndre Swift, 46 and a half.
21:46Ja'Cory Krosky, Merritt, 69 and a half.
21:48But then you take a look at Jaden Daniels, 46 and a half.
21:50And Caleb Williams, 24 and a half.
21:52If that field is slick, that is such a major advantage to a quarterback that can scramble.
21:57Why?
21:57The pass rushers.
21:58You can't get that bend out there to say, you know what?
22:00I'm going to beat this offensive tackle.
22:02You go down and lose your balance and slip.
22:04That's a free lane here for that quarterback to get out of the pocket here.
22:07How are you looking at the rushing props tonight here, Joe, for this game?
22:11Well, I think Ja'Cory Krosky, Merritt is a guy that you got to look at here, given the
22:15fact that the Bears defense is allowing, are you ready for this?
22:19Six plus yards per carry right now this year.
22:22Not good.
22:24And you know they're going to want to play a little smash mouth football.
22:26And you mentioned the wind, the rain.
22:29It's more conducive to this thing being a battle in the trenches than it is some sort
22:33of high flying.
22:34Oh, let's drop everyone back 40 times and throw the ball.
22:37No, I like his running style against this defense of the Bears.
22:42He's a guy I'd look to key in on in the backfield.
22:45How about this?
22:46The touchdown market, Joe.
22:47And again, we're dealing with a game that's close to 50 points right now as it's listed.
22:50To Corey Krosky, Merritt is a minus 170 price.
22:53He's expensive.
22:54He's the only guy that's juiced.
22:56Everybody else, plus money, starting with DeAndre Swift at plus 125 and Debo at plus
23:00120, along with Jaden Daniels.
23:02A lot of plus money in the marketplace tonight for a game that's posted at around 50.
23:06Yeah, no, it's kind of crazy, right?
23:09And I do think also, if we're being honest, Jaden Daniels keeping it and getting it into
23:16the end zone is also probably not a bad look here, Donnie, for an anytime touchdown.
23:22So Swift has actually come on as the season has progressed here.
23:26The running game has kind of been MIA for him.
23:28But I think Krosky, Merritt is the guy and will continue to be the guy for Washington.
23:35But don't be shocked if Jaden Daniels sneaks into the end zone.
23:39What a show.
23:39And we like to end it with a crescendo, which means giving you a couple of winning bets that
23:43you can go away into your night.
23:44But we're not going to get there first.
23:45This is the section of the show that we say, you know what?
23:47They heard us all for these two hours.
23:50We like to reach out to the public and hear what they have to say.
23:53Here's our fave to public poll.
23:54Now, you know, we can ask this poll in anything could have been Major League Baseball could
24:05have been when did the WNBA season end, but we're not going to waste your time because
24:08we love football and we love NFL football double header on the card tonight.
24:13You say, wait, you ask questions.
24:14I didn't get this question answered here.
24:16Where can I answer this question at?
24:18Go to sports grid on X at sports grid here.
24:20Give it a follow.
24:21And the question was asked today.
24:22Simple, what is your best bet for tonight's Monday Night Football double header?
24:26Four options.
24:27The Bills minus three and a half.
24:28The Falcons plus three and a half.
24:30The Bears plus five and a half.
24:31The Commanders minus five and a half.
24:33It was easy.
24:34I would have said the Falcons at four and a half if that were the price point, but I
24:38laid off.
24:38I went Bears five and a half.
24:40I think we get a close game down there in the nation's capital tonight.
24:43The Bears should be rested and ready.
24:45They could win this game, but I think they keep it close enough to cover the five and a half.
24:48That's where I went.
24:49But that wasn't the public favorite, Joe.
24:51No, and listen, at three, three and a half, will it get down to three here?
24:58That's the other question.
24:59I would listen.
25:00I don't think it's going to get there.
25:02So I would look to back Buffalo sooner rather than later if that's the way you want to go.
25:08Forget about Atlanta.
25:09You've already missed the best of the number here.
25:11But I like the totals in both these games a little bit more.
25:15But I get where the public is coming with the three and a half here for the Bills being their favorite look.
25:21Bills.
25:22People can't knock to the Bills tonight.
25:24I'll fade those public here.
25:25I'll go against those Buffalo Bills.
25:27It is what it is, people.
25:28Look, it's not a pleasure at this point.
25:31Just business.
25:32Just business.
25:33Don't worry about it.
25:33That's how we deal with it.
25:34Now, you want business?
25:36Friday night.
25:37Joe Ranieri said, you know what, South Florida, look at them on the road.
25:39We ain't buying into the mean green and debt.
25:40And hammer job.
25:42I told you I'm going to go against Scooble.
25:43And I said, I just need three runs.
25:45Yeah, it might have took 15, 16 innings.
25:47But they, the Mariners, got their three runs.
25:49Hoddle for Friday.
25:51Let's get to Monday.
25:51Here's bye-bye-bye.
25:59It ain't personal, Sonny.
26:01You ever hear that comment before?
26:02It's not.
26:03Just business, baby.
26:04What do you got tonight, Joe?
26:04Where are we going?
26:06It is just money, though.
26:07I'm still laughing about that South Florida win over North Texas on Friday for us here, Donnie, as we swept the board once again.
26:15But tonight, I'm going to go a little Monday night football, and I am going to be backing the under in this Buffalo and Atlanta game.
26:24And here is why.
26:26The reality of this situation is, if I'm Atlanta, I need to control this game on the ground.
26:33I need to milk the clock.
26:35I need to shorten the game, especially as a home underdog here.
26:39Not to mention, they are already, I think they have the seventh highest run average here, the percentage of running plays that they run in a game anyway.
26:50This is not a situation against this Bills defense where I'm going to be wanting to drop back and take shots and do all of these crazy things and hurry up and give the ball back to Josh Allen.
27:00So I think Atlanta is going to want to slow this game down.
27:04And also, history tells us, Sean McDermott, off a loss with these Bills, they get very conservative after a loss.
27:12And here's what I mean.
27:13The last 28 games that they have played after a loss, only nine have gone over.
27:21The rest, 19, have gone under here.
27:24The Bills are also going to run the ball.
27:27They're going to keep this thing close to the vest.
27:29They're not going to be looking to prove any points.
27:31I'll take the under in this one here tonight.
27:35Josh Allen, like they used to call Randall Cunningham in the late 80s and early 90s, the ultimate weapon, which he is.
27:40That's why that totals listed at 49 and a half.
27:42No weather conditions that we're worried about.
27:44So for me, I'm going to keep it in NFL action.
27:47I'm going to keep it on Monday Night Football.
27:48And I'm also going to go down that same path that Joe Ranieri is working in the game between the Buffalo Bills and the Atlanta Falcons.
27:54But for me, I am going to truly fade the public.
27:57You just saw that fade the public poll here.
27:58They love the Buffalo Bills.
28:00Well, make sure you're shopping around to get the best possible price points.
28:03Bandle 3.5, DraftKings 4.5, BetMGM 4, Bet365 3.5.
28:08Give me the 4.5, and I'll go contrarian on the Atlanta Falcons.
28:11A rested team at home, fully capable of putting up points against that Buffalo team.
28:16I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think the Atlanta Falcons will be competitive in this game in a one-score environment in the fourth quarter.
28:23And I will take the 4.5 points.
28:26Come on, B. John.
28:27Big night, kid.
28:28Big night.
28:29How about that, Joe?
28:30Yeah.
28:31I love it.
28:32Keep an eye on that, Joe.
28:33On the weather as well with this Nor'easter running through.
28:37I think there is opportunities here in this spot here for your Bears, but they got to prove it, Donnie.
28:45This is the game.
28:46We've got to see it on the road.
28:47They got to get it done under the bright lights.
28:49We've got to get it done under the bright lights.
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