Another named storm expected to develop in the Caribbean

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Jon Porter was live on the AccuWeather Network on Nov. 12 to discuss the latest in the tropics.

Transcript

00:00It's a season that won't end.

00:01Let's take you out to Negril, Jamaica, and it's going to be south of Jamaica where we're

00:06going to see development as early as Friday, but certainly over the upcoming weekend.

00:11All right.

00:12With that, let's bring in Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

00:16And you know, John, back in early September, there was a lot of naysayers out there talking

00:23about this hurricane season.

00:25We kept on telling everybody, listen, it's a different kind of season.

00:28It's a longer season.

00:30We are still concerned about plenty of storms.

00:34Here's where we are right now, John, and it's been very busy.

00:36We've had two named storms here just in the last 10 days.

00:41Sure has.

00:42And there was that long lull in the middle of the season.

00:45But we kept stressing that the back end of the season, the second half of the season

00:50would be very active.

00:51And that has been exactly the case, of course, with Raphael.

00:56And now our concerns about another named storm likely on the way, and this one, Bernie,

01:01we think is likely to become a hurricane and also likely to become a major hurricane in

01:06the Caribbean.

01:07All right.

01:08Here's our forecast, John.

01:09Now, our initial forecast was 20 to 25 storms.

01:12We did edge that down to 16 to 20.

01:14But I'll tell you what, John, we can easily have 20 storms.

01:17Don't forget, we have 17, Sarah could be 18.

01:20We have that unnamed subtropical storm that could be 19 at the end of the season.

01:24We may get another one.

01:27So it's been a busy hurricane season.

01:28Look at the numbers, John.

01:30We were forecasting three to six major hurricanes, which is well above the historical average.

01:36And right now we're sitting at five.

01:38Yeah, we think we've got another one here on the way.

01:40And we've had lots of impacts here in the United States, as we accurately forecast ahead

01:44of other sources and more accurately with major impacts, both the coast and also with

01:50the significant flooding, of course, inland with Helene and other storms, too.

01:55And after we had a little meeting with not only our tropical experts, our long range

02:00experts, meteorologist Joe Lumberg, Paul Pasteluk, they alerted us to a pattern that made us

02:06think November is going to be pretty busy.

02:11We sure did.

02:12We issued another exclusive AccuWeather forecast calling for the threat of additional storms

02:17into December across parts of the Atlantic Basin.

02:21We did that back on October 28th.

02:23We highlighted the East Coast and especially Florida most likely at risk for impacts.

02:28And we called for one to three additional named storms.

02:31Now, Bernie, let's put that into context for a minute.

02:33The historic average over 30 years for named storms in November is one every two years.

02:39So three additional storms would be well above the historic average.

02:43We've already had two another on the way.

02:45And here's our third one.

02:46It was yesterday morning, John, that we did upgrade to a high risk.

02:50Here it is in the northwest Caribbean, late week into the upcoming weekend, John.

02:56Here's the energy.

02:57Let's go over the ingredients.

02:58We begin with an unorganized area of thunderstorms, but thunderstorms nonetheless south of Hispaniola.

03:06That's correct.

03:07This has been a repeated pattern this year.

03:08Look at these thunderstorms across the Caribbean Sea.

03:12Pressures are lowering.

03:13And over time here, this is going to be the trouble spot once again.

03:17These thunderstorms will consolidate, I think, pretty quickly into a tropical storm late

03:22this week.

03:23Now, our ocean heat, this is another thing we're concerned about.

03:27Not only the ocean warm waters of the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, but what we call the ocean

03:33heat content, the depth of the warm water.

03:36And that's what really concerned us for this season.

03:40It does.

03:41And look at this off the coast of Mexico, south of Cuba.

03:43Look at the intensity here on the ocean heat content.

03:48This is not only warm water right at the surface, but sometimes a couple hundred feet deep in

03:53the Caribbean Sea.

03:54This is rocket fuel, high-octane rocket fuel for developing tropical storm and hurricane.

04:00All right, John, let's quickly go over the ingredients.

04:02It begins, and I've been pointing this out, I think this is underrated.

04:05This frontal boundary that's gone off the eastern seaboard, that's going to come south.

04:09That's going to stall, and that's going to add some upward motion south of that front.

04:14That's going to allow the showers and thunderstorms to really get going here over the next couple

04:18of days.

04:19And then we look at this, John, and this is always the limiting factor this time of the

04:23year, wind shear.

04:24But we don't see any Friday into the weekend.

04:26We do not.

04:27It's all to the north.

04:28And so that tells us with extremely warm water and light wind shear, what's going to stop

04:33this?

04:34Nothing.

04:35Nothing is a concern here.

04:38All right, John, let's go over this.

04:39We think that this is going to organize over the next couple of days.

04:42Then, as it moves into the northwest Caribbean, let's say Friday into Saturday, that's where

04:47we think this is going to be a named storm.

04:48And you all are all concerned that it's not only a hurricane, but a major hurricane by

04:53early next week.

04:55That was a consensus our team is meeting right now behind me here in the Global Weather Center.

04:59And our hurricane experts are concerned that this is going to likely become a tropical

05:04major hurricane here as we head through the next five or so days in the Caribbean.

05:09And then it can be drawn north.

05:11All right.

05:12Let's talk about this.

05:13John, all morning I've been talking about maybe a 5 percent chance that the dip in the

05:18jet stream that's coming into the northeast, let's say Wednesday night into Thursday, could

05:23pick this hurricane up early next week and move it to the north and east out of the picture.

05:28That seems so unlikely.

05:30So this is what we think are the two scenarios as we move forward, John.

05:35And it's all one of the biggest keys is that area of high pressure across Florida.

05:39Explain.

05:40Yes.

05:41As this area of high pressure drifts slowly off to the south and east, its intensity and

05:45location is going to be key.

05:46At first, the storm will start to move to the west.

05:49But as that area of high pressure drifts off to the south and east, a northerly route can

05:54open up.

05:55And that is why we're concerned that the storm as a major hurricane can be drawn north toward

05:59Cuba and then into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and may threaten Florida and other

06:05parts of the southeast as we head toward next week, the end of next week.

06:08If that high remains strong, then the western track persists and then it goes into Central

06:14America.

06:15And really quickly, John, in about 15 seconds, South Florida has fortunately missed out on

06:19a lot of storms.

06:21But climatologically, Florida this time of the year is a place to look for impacts.

06:25It sure is.

06:26We want everybody in Florida to be monitoring this very closely here on the AccuWeather

06:30Network.

06:31All right.

06:32AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

06:36Storm Nate 18 on the way.

06:38Stay with us.

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