00:00Joining us right now is AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
00:03Alex, when we left on Friday, we had a couple of talking points.
00:07We were talking about Gabrielle, and we were keeping an eye on a tropical wave
00:11that pretty much everybody dropped, but we said we're going to watch it.
00:14Let's talk about Gabrielle first and some changes in the satellite structure here in the last few hours.
00:20Yeah, over the last few hours, Gabrielle has gotten a lot better organized.
00:24We're even seeing an eye start to pop out on the satellite right now.
00:27You can really see that defined eye right there at the last frames there.
00:31There it is, right there in the center of your screen.
00:33So at 11 o'clock Eastern, that is the next update from the National Hurricane Center.
00:37This will at least be a Category 2, if not a low-end Category 3 hurricane,
00:42because usually when you see that eye pop out, you're talking at least up Category 2, if not stronger.
00:47So we do expect this to become a major hurricane.
00:50It would be the second major hurricane of the year sometime later on today.
00:54The good news, it's far east of Bermuda.
00:56It's going to be heading out to sea.
00:58Our friends in the Azores, though, we will have to watch out for them later on in the week as the storm passes by.
01:03All right, let's take a look at the water vapor loop here, because you can see our twin tropical waves.
01:08We're going to take them one by one.
01:10That's the best way to do it.
01:11You can see the one where we thought it would be Monday just east of the islands,
01:16and then that second tropical wave, which came off Africa on Friday, that's more in the central Atlantic.
01:22Let's take a look at the first tropical wave.
01:25Right now, not very well organized, but I'll tell you what, it's still there, and it's still a trackable feature.
01:31Yeah, we were tracking this all the way across the Atlantic last week.
01:35We thought maybe it would be a little further south and head more into the western Caribbean.
01:38It stayed a little bit further to the north, so now we expect it to pass north of the islands here over the next couple of days.
01:46Right now, it's in an environment where we're not expecting any kind of strengthening here in the short term.
01:50But as this gets towards the Bahamas, that's, I think, where we could see a reduction in some of this wind shear
01:58and a more favorable environment for intensification.
02:00We're now going with a moderate risk of development here.
02:04The dates for that, September 26th through the 28th.
02:07Again, nothing immediate right now.
02:09Nothing's going to happen, I think, over the next couple of days.
02:11But, again, that wind shear should relax as it approaches this area.
02:15The danger with this one is that it'll be off the Florida coast this week in the east coast of Florida.
02:22Now, the farther north you go toward Georgia and the Carolinas, you start getting into some wind shear and some westerly winds.
02:29But, you know, of the two, this one, to me, is the one that you have to keep an eye on more just because of its location.
02:39Right, Alex?
02:40Yeah, just because it's going to be a little bit closer to the United States.
02:43Again, the general pattern favors a lot of wind shear really close to the coast.
02:47So that's certainly good news.
02:49Of course, things can still change.
02:50But we want everyone to at least keep an eye on this one.
02:54You know, the other one, the one further to the east, actually looks better on satellite right now.
02:59That area, we actually have a high risk of development chances on.
03:04That one's also battling some wind shear and some dry air as we currently speak.
03:08And as it moves west, it should become, you know, better organized.
03:12But this one, luckily, we do expect to make that hard right-hand turn and actually follow a very similar track to Gabrielle.
03:19So folks in Bermuda, I think, are going to want to watch this one a little more closely.
03:24All right.
03:25Yeah, and we'll be talking about that in the feed coming up at 845, Alex.
03:28And as you know, you and I have been talking about this.
03:31I am more worried about that first one than the second one.
03:34And the real question is, Alex, can you have two storms like that in close proximity to each other?
03:40That's something else we're battling with right now.
03:43Yeah, you can.
03:44And in fact, there is a term for that.
03:47It's called Fujiwara.
03:48If you have two storms that are next to one another, they can actually impact each other's movements and tracks a little bit.
03:53But overall, it's really hard to get that because usually one storm imposes a lot of wind shear on the other one.
04:00So if that area that we talked about in the Bahamas develops, it might impose a lot of wind shear on that second one.
04:05So I think it would be very hard to have, like, two hurricanes that close to each other.
04:09But it can happen, and it has happened before.
04:11So we have to still keep a close eye out for it.
04:14AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, Alex De Silva.
04:16Thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
04:18AccuWeather Early.
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