00:00We've been waiting and waiting for activity to ramp up in the Atlantic, but I don't think any of us are complaining about this kind of lull at the peak point of the season climatologically.
00:10I want to go over the numbers quickly here just to put this in perspective, kind of how rare this is, how abnormal what we're seeing is.
00:18So usually we get to our seventh named storm by September 3rd. We're still stuck at storm number six. Fernand was our last named storm.
00:25That wrapped up end of August, which is usually around the time that we have our second hurricane.
00:30We're still sitting at one hurricane in the Atlantic with Hurricane Aaron, which was a category three or higher.
00:36Usually would have our second one of those by September 19th, which, of course, is not quite here yet.
00:40So we'll see if we are on track with that one. But running behind schedule climatologically with this hurricane season again, I don't think any of us are complaining.
00:49But there are some things that we're tracking because things could change soon. Take a look at satellite here.
00:54We do have a low chance of homegrown development. We'll talk about this a little bit more in the big three, because whether this is a tropical system or not, the impacts are going to be the same.
01:03But I really want to focus in on these two tropical waves. This one we've been highlighting for more than a week now with the chance of development.
01:10There's another one coming behind it, though, moving off the coast of Africa that could develop into a named storm as well.
01:15There's kind of three main factors that we look at when we're talking about whether or not a storm can develop in the central Atlantic.
01:23And this first wave, high chance of development starting really tomorrow through the end of the week.
01:30We look ahead into the weekend, especially then as we head into next week, we start to see this next wave.
01:35Now, looking at the dry air, I'm showing you the water vapor loop.
01:40Storms do not want dry air that kind of inhibits their development on this map.
01:44The yellows, the oranges, not really seeing the reds here, and that is dry air.
01:49You can see these are our tropical waves.
01:52This one is one that, you know, never really had a chance to develop.
01:56But you can see there is some dry air that this will move through, but certainly not enough for that to be the top inhibiting factor.
02:02Instead, it's kind of the wind shear.
02:04We want low wind shear for a tropical system to develop.
02:07Stronger wind shear, that gets in the way.
02:09That's noted by the darker shades of purple on this map, and you can see there is plenty of strong wind shear here.
02:17Now, we do think this is going to change.
02:19I did say there were three factors, water temperatures.
02:21The other one, by the way, that's not really a concern.
02:24The water is plenty warm in this area.
02:26So what's our timeline for possible organization here?
02:28Well, we're at early week, not a lot of organization with that first wave.
02:32If we get to mid to late week, it's going to start to organize slowly but surely.
02:36By the time we get to the weekend, that's when we think this really has a shot at becoming a storm.
02:41And looking ahead past the weekend quickly into the next week, the conditions with wind shear really become favorable for development.
02:49So we'll certainly be watching things as we head into next week.
02:52But this first wave, we don't think there's going to be impacts to the U.S.
02:55because of that positioning of the jet stream.
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