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00:00Monday morning on the early line, armchair quarterback is something we love to play
00:04because we like to take a look at what happened on Sunday and typically for one Monday night football game.
00:09But for today, we got double the pleasure, double the fun, two Monday night football games.
00:15Donnie right side, Joe Ranieri now joined by Tom Vecchio.
00:18What happened yesterday in the NFL? What's going to happen tonight?
00:20It's always tricky. Weeks one and weeks number two.
00:23We're right in the middle of a lot of offense yesterday.
00:26Tom Vecchio, how are we feeling today?
00:28I'm doing good.
00:29You know, it was a good day.
00:30Top to bottom for me was a perfect hit on some nice props.
00:34We have two games to get into today.
00:36Really interesting.
00:37I also have one of my favorite types of props to go to, which we'll get into a really obscure player with an obscure line.
00:43But I'm ready to roll.
00:45I like that, Tom.
00:46Yesterday, I had two parlays blown up because I couldn't get a touchdown out of Derrick Henry.
00:51And I thought I got one of those dropped in from the sky where DeAndre Hopkins goes down the sideline.
00:55He's down at the half yard line.
00:56I'm like, this is the most perfect scenario ever.
00:59Multiple times inside the one.
01:01He doesn't get the football.
01:03Those are the frustrations that we do have no doubt about it.
01:06But Tom, we got double headers tonight.
01:07You take a look at Tampa Bay and Houston.
01:09Game number one at seven o'clock.
01:10A two and a half point number.
01:12Game number two.
01:12Chargers and the Vegas Raiders.
01:14A three to three and a half point number.
01:15We got some good games to take a look at tonight.
01:18We really do.
01:19And, you know, if I had to pick one game, I would say that the second game is one that would be far more interested when it comes to an offensive perspective.
01:26That's not some crazy take.
01:27Obviously, the total is a little bit higher.
01:29We've seen some better stuff out of both of those teams to start the year.
01:32But the Texans really struggled in week one.
01:35Granted, they were on the road.
01:36It's good Rams defense.
01:37But the Texans' offensive line is terrible.
01:40And I don't know what we can be anticipating from their passing offense if C.J. Stroud is not going to have a lot of time.
01:46And we're also in a spot where their running back room is pretty terrible to begin with.
01:50Oh, look at that.
01:56He's always speechless.
01:57Joe's always speechless.
01:58Like, Tom, you are such a superstar where Joe gets speechless each and every time.
02:03I am always speechless.
02:04And there he is.
02:04There he is.
02:05I am still trying to get over the whole flag of the Denver Bronco game at the end.
02:10It's really starting to annoy me.
02:12I have no idea.
02:13I thought I moved past that last night, but apparently not here.
02:16All right.
02:17You mentioned the offensive line of the Texans being horrific.
02:20And it is horrific.
02:23But are you sold on Stroud?
02:25Because I'm not.
02:27It's very.
02:28Stroud, Baker, Mayfield.
02:29I'm going to back Baker in that matchup.
02:31Why shouldn't I?
02:32No?
02:33Yeah.
02:34I'm with you right there.
02:35Like, I think Stroud is good.
02:36And I think there's a path to him being better.
02:38But that time is not right now.
02:40Like, that may happen next year.
02:42Could happen in Week 10 this year.
02:43And they turn it on.
02:44But the combination of the offensive line and his inconsistency has no.
02:48And also, just like we talk about this, like, top to bottom coaching, offense, defense, special teams.
02:52Like, I'm checking more boxes on the side of the Buccaneers than I am with the side of the Texans.
02:57So, you can say that maybe the skill position players, at least for the wide receivers, somewhat comparable.
03:01Like, you know, we still have Neal Collins.
03:03Okay, Mike Evans.
03:04That's kind of even when it's all center.
03:05But when it comes down to it, I'm going to be backing the Bucs time and time again.
03:09I'd like them to score.
03:10And I'm not sure how many points the Texans put up tonight.
03:13By the way, let's take a look at this game, too.
03:15Because this is a 2.5-point favorites in the Dome.
03:1742.5 is the total.
03:18Opened up around that 43.5 number.
03:20But I love, like, I talk about secondary options.
03:22I love to look at and like to bet here.
03:24And it's like, how is this going to work out?
03:25Low totals.
03:27Give me this Jalen Noel prop tonight.
03:29This is right up my alley, Tom.
03:31Please tell the people.
03:32Yeah, Jalen Noel, rookie receiver for the Texans, under 7.5 yards.
03:38Look at that.
03:38Under 7.5 yards.
03:40Look at that, Joe.
03:40And we know that Christian Kirk isn't playing.
03:43But Neal Collins, Xavier Hutchinson, Justin Watson, who's a bit of a veteran,
03:47the other rookie, Jaden Higgins, and Dalton Schultz,
03:50all of them are higher in one-week sample size when it comes to snap rate
03:54and target sharing.
03:55Week one, Noel played on 27% of the snaps.
03:58He played on 17 snaps for them overall.
04:00So I'm basically betting on that he won't have a catch.
04:03Now, is it possible that he has one catch for 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 yards,
04:06whatever?
04:06Sure.
04:06But the fact that he's literally not on the field,
04:09and even if he's on the field, he's barely being targeted,
04:11he's a non-option.
04:12It's very possible that he plays and he has zero targets,
04:15zero catches, zero yards.
04:16So under 7.5 yards for Noel.
04:19Mmm.
04:20About that.
04:21I don't understand the second game either, Tom,
04:23because I have seen nothing but Raider money all week long coming in here.
04:28And it's not going to get under a field goal,
04:31but the fact that I thought it would go the other way.
04:33So what am I missing here with the Raiders against the Chargers?
04:38The only thing I would say is, you know,
04:40the Raiders' defense looked good,
04:42and we have to take them with a grain of salt.
04:44You know, they were playing a Pats team,
04:46especially in week one.
04:47We weren't sure what we were going to get from them.
04:49It's also, I wouldn't be surprised if people were like,
04:51oh, hey, the Chargers, they're coming back from an international game.
04:53They've traveled.
04:54They do have rest, but it is an international game in travel.
04:56So I can understand theoretically why people would buy into the Chargers.
05:00But again, top to bottom, the Chargers are the better team.
05:03I think they have the better quarterback.
05:04I think they have better skill position players.
05:06We know that Brock Bowers is expected to go,
05:08but he's still not 100% healthy.
05:09Even if he does play the whole game, he's not 100% healthy.
05:12You wouldn't be questionable.
05:13You're not going to be 100% not healthy if you were listed as questionable
05:16or doubtful coming into this week.
05:17So I like the Chargers.
05:19I like points tonight.
05:20And I think we get some key players involved from the Chargers as well.
05:24Let's get those key players.
05:25Tom, talk to me about some of those key players you expect to perform,
05:28particularly in the passing game here, huh?
05:30Yeah, let's get to Ladd McConkie for a touchdown.
05:33You know, last Friday, I spoke to you guys about DK Metcalf getting a touchdown.
05:36I want the main players to get into the end zone,
05:38and that's what we have with Ladd McConkie when it's all this and done.
05:40He didn't score in week one, and when we have a player that has a 25%, 26%,
05:4427% target share overall, I'm always going to buy into them,
05:47especially when they're being priced that is – well, I think the price is wrong.
05:52Looking at Ladd McConkie at plus 155 or plus 160,
05:54that's not where a number one wide receiver should be priced.
05:57He should be down at plus 125.
05:58So the fact that we have a good matchup, we have a good game environment overall
06:02with the score potential at 46.5, I'm taking that number
06:05and really just saying this is wrong, and I will buy into this time and time again.
06:12I'm going to be interested to see here.
06:14Herbert, over 22.5 completions.
06:16Does he go over his yardage?
06:18Do you think it's all about his arm and throwing the ball?
06:23Give me the deep shots.
06:24Yeah, I really do.
06:25And as I – you know, shout out to my guy, Tim Doyle at CBS Sports,
06:29who I did a ton of shows with back in the day.
06:31The EWW, the Herbert every which way.
06:33You want yards, you want completions, you want attempts,
06:35you want overpassing touchdowns.
06:37That's fine.
06:37But the Readers' defense at least showed me something last week
06:40in terms of stopping the run again.
06:42It was against the Pats.
06:43But the Chargers are actually a bit more pass-happy than people realize.
06:46They're not this old-school harbor of run the ball, run the ball, run the ball.
06:49They're actually a little bit more pass-happy than people realize.
06:51And they're going to put the ball in Herbert's hands.
06:53And regardless of the attempt, he's actually really efficient.
06:55So I think he goes over his completions tonight as well.
06:58We saw a lot of offense yesterday, typically in September.
07:02Everybody's really healthy for the most part.
07:03Good weather conditions.
07:04The one thing that we love tonight, too, is you're looking at two warm-weather cities,
07:07but we're playing in domes tonight.
07:09Should be perfect, perfect scenarios in both of these games in the 40s here
07:13for a chance of offense.
07:14Tom Vecchio joined us on Monday.
07:16We love to see it.
07:17Catch him around the clock here on the Sportsman Network.
07:19The man never stops.
07:21We'll be back talking sports, sports next.
07:23Are you ready for some football?
07:25And it's a doubleheader variety.
07:27Now, I liked when the NFL, Joe Ranieri, was like,
07:29hey, you know, we'll give you a doubleheader on Monday Night Football,
07:31one at 7, one at 7.30.
07:32Love it!
07:33Get the two TVs out.
07:34We're in bed by 10 o'clock, and away we go.
07:37Now the party basically is just getting started at 10 o'clock in Vegas.
07:40Tonight we have Tampa Bay and Houston and Los Angeles,
07:43which is the Chargers, going up against Las Vegas.
07:45But let's focus on game number one tonight, Joe.
07:477 o'clock start.
07:48That's down in the Dome in Houston, Tampa Bay and Houston.
07:51It's Mayfield, it's Stroud, 1-0 Tampa Bay, 0-1 Houston Texans.
07:55The line opened up as a minus 2.5 point favorite here for the Houston Texans.
08:00It still sits there on game day, Joe.
08:0243.5, down slightly to 42.5 across the board.
08:06Let's start here.
08:07Mayfield comes to town 1-0.
08:09Houston desperate for a victory.
08:10Two pretty good defenses here, but a really low total in a dome.
08:14It is a low total here, but it's interesting.
08:18We saw some issues with the Tampa Bay Bucs against Atlanta on the road last week,
08:24but they had Baker Mayfield and that passing attack.
08:28Well, that saved them in that game.
08:31And can I tell you, it's going to have to save them in this game as well,
08:35because I do think Houston does some things really well here, especially at home.
08:40They're very well coached.
08:41I think Nick Chubb is going to have to have a really good game.
08:45They're going to have to take some of the pressure off of C.J. Stroud,
08:49because that offensive line is a mess.
08:51They're already injured.
08:53It was questionable to begin with.
08:55But I tell you, the more I look at this game, it's going to come down to the defenses.
08:59And Baker Mayfield and that receiving core, that's a banged-up secondary with Texas right now.
09:08I think the underdog, the more that I look at this, that dog might be barking here tonight with Tampa Bay to get it done.
09:17Take a look at the quarterbacks here.
09:18Similar with value here in that props market.
09:21C.J. Stroud, 229.5 as his prop.
09:23Baker Mayfield, 232.5 as his prop.
09:26So those numbers certainly moving live.
09:27You see that 235.5 dropping slightly here.
09:30The touchdown markets for them to throw, just getting those updated odds.
09:33Baker Mayfield over 1.5 is now a plus-120 price.
09:36And you take a look at C.J. Stroud at a plus-134 price.
09:39Defenses, they're going to get a lot of pressure in this game tonight.
09:42We certainly can anticipate.
09:43If we look at the touchdown scores, Nick Chubb's a plus-100.
09:47Bucky Irvin plus-120.
09:48Nico Collins plus-140.
09:50Evans and then Emeka Egbuku actually had a couple touchdowns on opening day.
09:53Is this one where you see a touchdown market, Joe, that you love and maybe a guy that you're looking forward to to find that pay dirt?
10:00Yeah, I kind of like Mike Evans here to get enough opportunities to be able to get it done,
10:06especially now that the young kid is going to get a ton of attention this week from Houston after he was kind of forgotten about last week in Atlanta.
10:15And guess what?
10:16He scored two touchdowns here.
10:18So, I do think Evans is going to have an opportunity in the red zone to be able to get one here.
10:25So, I like his price and Mike Evans.
10:27I also like, you know that, Baker Mayfield, I believe, went 13-5 last year, Donnie, over one-and-a-half passing touchdowns.
10:35He had three last week.
10:37What are the chances he does it again here tonight?
10:39I like him.
10:40Oh, slinging down in the dome.
10:42By the way, the wide receiver props here for receiving.
10:43Nico Collins, the top dog tonight, 76-and-a-half.
10:46No surprise there.
10:47He's certainly the lead dog in Houston.
10:48Didn't really show up all that much last week.
10:50Mike Evans, 64-and-a-half.
10:51Egbuka, 53-and-a-half.
10:53Bucky Irvin out of the backfield, 20-and-a-half.
10:55Sterling Shepard, 22-and-a-half.
10:56So, you do get some value as far down as you go.
10:58Are we looking for a bounce-back day here for Nico Collins and that offense for C.J. Stroud?
11:04Going to have to.
11:05I mean, listen, Houston didn't score a touchdown.
11:07And they lost their starting center in that game last week against the Rams.
11:13Not good.
11:14Now, this is going to be a little more manageable, I think, against this Bucs defense.
11:18But if this becomes a shootout, Donnie, right, then who are we giving the edge to here?
11:23Tampa?
11:24Or are we giving it to Nico Collins and C.J. Stroud?
11:28He's going to have to play a role in this game tonight.
11:31Yeah, we'll see what happens as we get closer and closer to game time to see if we have any movement on that line.
11:37Plus two-and-a-half, you know, minus two-and-a-half.
11:39Splits here, Houston Texans, a minus-152 favorite on the money line.
11:42And the total, again, at 42-and-a-half.
11:44But we do have a doubleheader in the building tonight.
11:46Just not in the same building, but two domes tonight out in Vegas.
11:49That's the Chargers and the Raiders.
11:51This line, similar to what we just talked about between the Texans and the Buccaneers, now sits at three.
11:56If we look at the 46-and-a-half as a total right now.
11:59Home team, underdog, Chargers.
12:01Chargers, you know, everybody's excited about that game-one victory, which was a neutral site in Brazil over the Kansas City Chiefs.
12:07But the Raiders got a decent victory on the East Coast against the New England Patriots when they're beating the Miami Dolphins yesterday.
12:12What do we see out of this game just starting it off between the Chargers and the Raiders for you, Joe?
12:17I mean, it's, okay.
12:19So let me see.
12:20Pete Carroll versus Harbaugh.
12:22All right, I'm going to give the edge to Harbaugh here.
12:25I'm also going to give a big edge to the starting quarterbacks to the Chargers here.
12:30And while they are better than I think people thought with Chip Kelly and Pete Carroll here, the Raiders, the reality is, though, you know, you beat the Patriots.
12:40Let's be realistic here.
12:42I think the Chargers are a different animal.
12:45I don't understand the line and the love for the Raiders here.
12:49I think it's going to come down to Herbert, the ball in his hands in the fourth quarter with an opportunity to win it, and he's going to do just that.
12:57Yeah, I like the way both of these quarterbacks performed last week.
12:59There's no doubt about that.
13:00But Geno Smith, if we're looking at his passing yardage prop for this game, 240 and a half.
13:04And then you take a look at Justin Herbert here sitting at 254 and a half.
13:08If you look at the touchdown props, Geno Smith to throw two of those, plus 102.
13:12Two touchdowns out of Justin Herbert in the air.
13:14That's a minus 138 price.
13:16I was really impressed.
13:17Like, the one thing we do know is, coming into the season, Harbaugh loves to run the football, doesn't really want to stay aggressive.
13:23In the words of, let's just throw it all over the place.
13:26But I was really liking the wide receivers, the offense, the downfield shots last week against the Kansas City Chiefs.
13:32Do we think we have that same sort of offense tonight where it's like, you know what, Justin?
13:35We're going to let you let it rip here.
13:37Yeah, yes, absolutely.
13:41Although I expect Najee Harris to have a bigger role in this game as well.
13:45Harbaugh is going to run, and you know it.
13:48But it's usually going to be set up to give Herbert an opportunity to get some shots down to field.
13:54The defense for the Raiders, the weakest part, is the secondary.
13:58And I expect them to take advantage of that.
14:00But you can't bet the Raiders until you know what the status of Brock Bowers is.
14:05Big time hurt last week.
14:07They're still not sure if he's going to go here tonight.
14:10That's a big loss if he's not on that field for Geno Smith.
14:13Yeah, sort of opens up the rest of the patterns there, certainly for the wide receivers.
14:17If we are looking at Brock Bowers, he does have a prop bet listed tonight, Joe, at 61 and a half yards.
14:22That's a pretty hefty number, not figuring on how many plays that he's actually going to be available tonight,
14:27if he does go, and how healthy he is.
14:29Glad McConkie at 74 and a half, Keenan Allen 51 and a half, Quinton Johnson at 42 and a half here.
14:35Stonehands making some big plays last week.
14:37Maybe it comes into play for this one.
14:39We're going to talk much more about these two NFL games coming up in the next segment.
14:43But make sure you keep the dial right here on the Sports Grid Network.
14:47Doubleheader of Monday Night Football.
14:49Fantastic.
14:50You've got to love it.
14:50More football, the better.
14:52That's always the creed that we love to have here on the early line on the Sports Grid Network.
14:56It's on the right side, and it's Joe Waniere.
14:57But let's take a look, too, because we're going to get back into these games and take a look at some of those prop bets.
15:01But let's look at the AFC West now.
15:03Two teams are going to play tonight, Joe.
15:05The Los Angeles Chargers, they're 1-0.
15:07The Las Vegas Raiders, they're 1-0.
15:10These two teams are going to play.
15:11One team is going to be 2-0.
15:12The reason I bring that up is there's already an 0-2 team in your division, and that's the Kansas City Chiefs.
15:18They now sit at a plus 2-10 price to win this division, which will change tonight.
15:22Because if the Chargers win, they're a plus 150 favorite.
15:25That's going to drop.
15:26Same thing with the Vegas Raiders, plus 750 price, still in last place in the odds market.
15:31If they win, that number is going to change.
15:34So how do we feel, Joe, about the AFC West now that you have a 2-0 team and an 0-2 Chiefs here?
15:40And can the Chiefs dig out and still win this division?
15:44Yeah.
15:44Yes, the Chiefs are absolutely not done.
15:48And you mentioned it earlier, Donnie, that now might be the time to look towards the Chiefs in that future market for the AFC West,
15:56given the fact that we all know reinforcements are coming.
15:59And listen, there's no shame in losing to the Chargers when you had an opportunity to win that game.
16:06They had an opportunity, and I can make the argument, should have won that game against the Eagles yesterday.
16:11Thanks, Travis, Kelsey, you're becoming more of a liability.
16:15You knock out the one deep threat that you have a couple of plays into the game in Brazil,
16:21and then you end up getting hit in the chest with a ball, nobody on you,
16:27that would have been the go-ahead touchdown, and instead it turned into an interception.
16:32So a couple of plays here or there, we're having a 2-0 conversation about the Chiefs and not an 0-2.
16:39So I don't think all is lost just yet.
16:41It is so crazy how, like, a couple plays a game really make the difference.
16:45Like, the Philadelphia Eagles going up against the Dallas Cowboys.
16:47If you don't have that many drops from CeeDee Lamb and a fumble by Miles Sanders, they'd probably win.
16:51But they did have those drops, and they did fumble.
16:53Same thing with Philadelphia and Kansas City yesterday.
16:55If Travis Kelsey catches that ball in the goal line, and they score, and the Eagles don't score off of that turnover,
17:00maybe the Eagles are 0-2, and the Kansas City Chiefs are like, okay, we're back to 1-1.
17:04But they are not.
17:04And that's going to be interesting, where we're not used to Kansas City playing the hunter.
17:09They're always the hunted being that big lead in that division.
17:12The teams try to track them down.
17:14It'll be fun to watch to see the adversity that Kansas City has to deal with,
17:17which they haven't had much of that adversity over the past couple years,
17:19or at least in the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes era there.
17:22But let's get back to the marketplace tonight with that Vegas Raiders-Los Angeles Chargers game.
17:27The touchdown market prices, Omari and Hampton, a minus-120 price.
17:30Ashton Jinty, minus-110, and the plus money of Ladd McConkie, Brock Bowers, and Jacoby Myers.
17:36If I do look at the ground games, both of these teams do love to run the football.
17:40Would I be wrong to be crazy to say we don't get at least two rushing touchdowns in this game, Joe?
17:46I feel like we're going to get that.
17:49Yeah, absolutely.
17:50I mean, listen, we know the Chargers are certainly going to, in that red zone, try to pound it in there.
17:58But again, I'll say this.
17:59It's the secondary of the Raiders that's the weakest part of that defense.
18:04And I am sure Pete Carroll, especially if Brock Bowers doesn't go,
18:09is going to want to get Jinty involved in this game some way, somehow, Donnie.
18:13He's going to want this kid to have his coming-out party.
18:17And what better way to do it than at home here with an opportunity to get a couple of shots into the end zone?
18:23So, what is he, minus-110?
18:26I can see it happening here.
18:29But let me ask you this question, too, because Quinton Johnson cannot catch the wide receiver for the Los Angeles Chargers.
18:34Maybe they're going to phase him out because Mike Williams is coming back with Mike Williams down for the season
18:38and probably retired now with that back injury.
18:41But look at Quinton Johnson last week, Joe.
18:43Five for 79 and two touchdowns here.
18:46I always like a go-to guy that's hot, and you want to keep him involved in the offense.
18:51And I would never look to this guy because he always drops the ball.
18:54But 42-and-a-half is his receiving yard prop tonight.
18:57You should be able to get after.
18:59That's secondary for the Vegas Raiders.
19:01Could we see back-to-back quality performances out of Quinton Johnson for you tonight?
19:06I don't know what kind of super glue or sticker.
19:10I don't know what was going on there last week with Quinton Johnson, Donnie.
19:14And listen, there is no—this guy would be one of the most dangerous receivers in the game if we could rely on him actually holding on to the ball.
19:24The guy is a monster target.
19:26He can run.
19:27He can—you know, this is—if they figured something out in the offseason, he is a very, very big problem for defenses this year.
19:37Quickly, Joe, two talented running backs.
19:39Let me give you one pick here.
19:41Hampton and Jinty, over 56 yards for Hampton and Jinty at 68-and-a-half.
19:45Who would you take?
19:47Who's going over?
19:48I would take Jinty.
19:50I think Jinty's going to have all the opportunities to go up and over here in this game tonight at home.
19:55They got to get a go.
19:56Get them going here.
19:58Get that play-action pass working.
19:59Get Geno some outlets of wide receiver and also key ingredients, Joe pointed out.
20:02Brock Bowers, if he's healthy, that makes a major difference tonight.
20:06If baseball was a person, Joe Aneri, it would sing to itself,
20:09Don't you forget about me.
20:14Yeah, because we love NCAA football.
20:16We love NFL football.
20:18We like Major League Baseball and tolerate it in September before it really starts to crank up in October.
20:23But you are going to have pitching mismatches on a day-to-day basis that you still need to take a look at and watch out for and bet some money and win some money.
20:32Let's take a look at the Major League Baseball card tonight, Joe.
20:34We're going to start in Chicago.
20:35Actually, we'll start with Chicago, who's playing in Pittsburgh.
20:38Jameson Tyone going up against Ashcraft and a favorite here slightly for the Chicago Cubs.
20:43And the total of this game, listed at eight now across the board.
20:47The Cubs fighting for that playoff contention.
20:49They'll get in.
20:50I don't know if they're going to be able to chase down the Milwaukee Brewers who are struggling as of late.
20:53But everybody knows.
20:54You go to Pittsburgh, the expectations are Pittsburgh's going to score one or two runs.
20:58You should be able to beat them, Joe.
20:59Well, you should.
21:02Kind of a homecoming of sorts, too, right?
21:04Jameson Tyone started his career, I believe, with Pittsburgh here.
21:08But the Cubs, listen, had a couple of big games over the weekend.
21:11They needed to win against Tampa at home.
21:13They got that done.
21:14And Pittsburgh has been, at least in the second half, better at home than some have expected.
21:21And Ashcraft has been great.
21:22He was a reliever to start the season, Donnie.
21:25And since they've actually took him out of the bullpen to become a starter, he's actually been pretty decent here.
21:32Still don't like the Cubs' bats.
21:34They still have issues and injuries all over the place.
21:37Yeah, to me, I'm not expecting a ton of runs here.
21:41I think the under is still the way to look with these two teams.
21:45By the way, we will continue the conversation in Major League Baseball in just a few moments.
21:48But breaking news in the NFL, Joe Ranieri, Adam Schefter just reported the Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will need toe surgery that will sideline him a minimum of three months.
21:59The absolute worst-case scenario for the Cincinnati Bengals, Joe, just came to fruition.
22:05How do we feel about that now?
22:06Oh, my goodness.
22:08Yeah, that's not great news.
22:11But I do think then the overreaction of what we're going to see in the market this week against the Minnesota Vikings, which is the team they're playing, should be definitely worth keeping an eye on and maybe a bet on Cincinnati here.
22:28Because, again, I'll say it, Browning has been there.
22:31He's done this before.
22:33He knows the system.
22:34He's got more weapons than any other backup quarterback could dream of having in the NFL.
22:40That defense has to come together.
22:42And right now, I'm seeing that line now.
22:45It opened up one, one-and-a-half Minnesota.
22:47I'm seeing three-and-a-half, maybe even four starting to pop in.
22:51So here we go.
22:52Let's fade Cincinnati.
22:54I don't think so.
22:55I still like Cincinnati, especially this week.
22:58Now, here's the interesting part about it, too, because I'm just looking at FanDuel right now.
23:01They're a plus 800 now to win the AFC North despite being 2-0.
23:05And that's a direct derivative of Joe Burrow going down at this point.
23:08But also, sometimes your handicapping mind starts to work in it almost like a counterbalance, if you will.
23:15Because most people look at this injury, you can't bet Cincinnati.
23:19They're done.
23:20It's over.
23:20Now, granted, Joe, if you took their early season win total, they're 2-0 still.
23:25They're not going to get as good a quarterback play as you're going to get from Joe Burrow.
23:28We understand that.
23:29They're in a talented division, which I do think the Baltimore Ravens are always the most talented team.
23:33And maybe they could have got a challenge from the Cincinnati Bengals with a healthy Joe Burrow.
23:37But now when I take a look at myself and go, okay, how can we actually make this into a profitable spot?
23:43So let's just go to the – and I'm just looking on the fly right now because we don't know these odds or statistics of how they change since we just got this information that it's going to be down for three months.
23:51But to make the playoffs now, and I don't know if they're even on the board, the Cincinnati Bengals are a plus 180.
23:56I would wait this one out because the betting public, for the most part, is going to fade everything they can about the Cincinnati Bengals, right?
24:04So they're not going to win the division, but they can make the playoffs.
24:07I want to see how low that price point goes.
24:09But also, are you going to be able to get a crazy number on, let's just say, a Super Bowl or a conference championship?
24:16Because understand this.
24:18The minimum of 90 days, let's just say the best case scenario is it takes him 75 days to get back on the football field.
24:25You still have the entire month of – let's just say the remaining parts of November and December still to play.
24:31And if they're hanging around in the balance, if they get to the playoffs and he's healthy, you might have a really good price.
24:38So for me, Joe, not giving up as you, not giving up as well in the Bengals, you might be able to find some gold at the end of the rainbow, no?
24:47Well, I think you're going to have to pick and choose your spots here.
24:51But, you know, we just watched Browning go, what, eight plays, 92 yards on a game-winning touchdown yesterday.
25:02That didn't look like a guy that's overwhelmed who hasn't been there and done this before.
25:07He has.
25:08He's done it with this team.
25:09And he's got a healthy Higgins and Chase and a running game.
25:13And he has got more weapons by his side than they'll be fine, but you've got to pick and choose your spots with them.
25:20The long game, let's wait and see.
25:23But I think in the immediate, I think there's going to be opportunities to zigzag with this team when everyone's going to look to fade them,
25:31especially when they have games coming up against Detroit, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, once they get through Minnesota this week.
25:39So I think there are some opportunities where the market is going to totally overreact and Cincinnati is going to be a must-play team.
25:47I think you're right about that, too, because, hold on, you know what?
25:49You bring up a good point here.
25:50So as we're doing this right on the fly, I'm going to bring up the Cincinnati Bengals schedule here,
25:54because when we talk about how you want to approach this, today, like, oh, you fade them.
25:59If that's what you want to do, that's fine.
26:00I don't think there's going to be value in fading them because those numbers are going to change drastically at that point.
26:04But if you do look and say, where is the bottom-out point?
26:07Because keep in mind, they're not 0-2, Joe, and Burrow got hurt.
26:12It's like, well, that's a wrap on it.
26:13They're 2-0.
26:15Can they just be a 500-football team until he gets back?
26:18Because if you look at the win against the Browns, that's 1-0.
26:21The win against the Jaguars, it's 2-0.
26:23The Vikings say, well, it's still a winnable football game.
26:25Did you see what J.J. McCarthy was doing?
26:27The Broncos might be tough, the Lions, the Packers, the Steelers.
26:30I'm telling you right now, more information will come out on Joe Burrow as well.
26:34If I am looking at a price point where I want to actually take Cincinnati, I wait.
26:39I don't take them against the Vikings.
26:41I don't take them in the Denver Broncos.
26:43After the Lions game and the Packers, ooh, that looks bad, or the Steelers might be able
26:46to beat them too.
26:47I say after Thursday, October 16th, which is the Packers game, excuse me, which is the
26:53Steelers game, which let's just say they lose that.
26:55That's where my buyback starts.
26:57Because we'll know if Joe Burrow is coming back, if his rehab is going well, and that'll
27:02be the low point of the season.
27:03Because after that, Joe, it's the Jets, it's the Bears, then a buy week at the Steelers,
27:08then the Patriots.
27:10That's my buy game right there.
27:12After the Pittsburgh Steelers game and before the Jets game there, October 26th.
27:17Yeah, I'm telling you, Donnie, the value is going to be with Cincinnati.
27:22But whether Burrow or Browning was the quarterback, keep in mind that a lot of those games, those
27:29big games coming up, you're going to need the defense to be better.
27:33Don't forget, it was the defense that was the weak part of this team over the last couple
27:38of seasons and the offensive line, which has been the issue.
27:42So the defense, if they step up and the offensive line can protect Browning, they're going to
27:48have a shot in all of these games.
27:49The difference is they're not 0-2, 0-3, 0-4 to start the season.
27:54They're 2-0, Donnie.
27:55So they've got a little bit of breathing room.
27:57But this just means everyone else has got to step up here.
28:00There you go.
28:01Thursday night, October 16th.
28:03After that football game, I'm going to look towards the Cincinnati Bengals if Joe Burrow
28:07will be back on the mend and he is coming back and seeing what that actual price point
28:10would be.
28:11Also keep in mind, Adam Schefter with a retweet today of his initial tweet.
28:15The Bengals have been calling around to other free agent quarterbacks since after Joe Burrow
28:19was injury, knowing they will have to add at least one more to the roster.
28:22So let's extend the conversation in this respect, Joe.
28:25I don't think they're going out to get a top-name quarterback a la a Kirk Cousins.
28:29This sounds like they're just looking to add veteran experience behind Jake Browning.
28:34Or do you see it a different way?
28:36No.
28:37What choice did they have now at this point?
28:39They're never going to afford a Kirk Cousins.
28:41So then that organization is never going to pay the money.
28:44But I mean, a Jameis Winston has to be on the on the block, right?
28:50You got to be able to pick up the phone and call call him and say, hey, listen, can you
28:54know, can we get Jameis into building a lot more affordable?
28:57So, yeah, I think there are some names that that they'll be more than happy to get behind
29:02him.
29:04Early bird gets it.
29:05He's all that yesterday.
29:06Joe Burrow.
29:07Look, man, there's a lot of guys out there on the streets here.
29:10Maybe Shadour Sanders goes over there, Joe.
29:12How do you like that?
29:13Shadour leading the Bengals into the playoffs.
29:15This is a spot he always wanted to be in at this point here.
29:18But look at that.
29:18The NFL always rules the route.
29:20The fun's only beginning today on the Sports Grid Network.
29:22We just set the table.
29:24We are the appetizer for the rest of your Sports Grid Day.
29:26And what a day it is here in Major League Baseball, in NFL doubleheader action tonight.
29:31Can't get enough of this stuff.
29:32But this is the part of the show.
29:34We like to reach out to the public and get their opinions.
29:37Here's our fave the public poll.
29:46All right.
29:47Doubleheader tonight.
29:48Four different ways to go.
29:50So if you're not following us at Sports Grid on X, what the heck are you doing with your
29:54life?
29:54Because you can vote on these each and every day.
29:56And we put up the results right here on the morning show.
29:59The question was asked today.
30:00Very simple.
30:01What is your best bet for week two's Monday night football doubleheader?
30:05The choices.
30:06The Bucs plus two and a half.
30:07The Texans minus two and a half.
30:09The Chargers minus three.
30:10The Raiders getting three points here.
30:13The favorite right now is the Chargers slightly at a minus three favorite over the Raiders.
30:19That's 38% of the votes that are coming in currently.
30:21You know who's on the low end of the total poll?
30:23It's the Raiders getting three points at home tonight.
30:27Do you agree with this, Paul Jones?
30:28Which way did you go?
30:32I think I'm kind of agreeing with him here, Donnie, with these games here tonight.
30:37But I'm still thinking, is there a possibility here, Donnie, that not one but two more outright
30:46winners could take center stage here tonight?
30:50So maybe a Bucs-Raiders money line parlay could very well be in store for one of us here tonight.
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