Tropics likely to stay quiet through at least Labor Day

AccuWeather

For the second year in a row, we may have no named tropical systems in the Atlantic on Labor Day, which is a rare occurrence during the peak of hurricane season.

Transcript

00:00Let's take you into the tropics, and the only named tropical entity right now in the Atlantic

00:04Basin is Tropical Storm Fernand, and it's a pretty sad-looking storm right now.

00:09A little bit of deep convection fighting along.

00:11Maxine winds 40 miles per hour, moving northeast to 12.

00:14This is about a minimal tropical storm at this point, and it's on borrowed time, as

00:18this is going to lose its tropical characteristics soon over that cold water of the North Atlantic.

00:23We're going to take a look farther east, and often, this time of the year, we see pretty

00:28robust tropical waves, a series of them move west of Africa.

00:31There are areas that have been exceptionally dry, much, much drier than average in western

00:35Africa, and I'm not talking about the Sahara.

00:37I'm talking about areas west of the Sahara, and really, the tropical wave train is not

00:44looking good.

00:45Here's one tiny wave.

00:46Here's one that's been chewed apart by dry, dusty Saharan air.

00:49There's a lot of dusty Saharan air right now.

00:51It looks much more like a typical early to mid-July pattern than August.

00:56There are a couple of healthier tropical waves right now still off to the east.

01:00We'll keep an eye on them, but for now, through September 3rd, we don't expect to see any tropical

01:06disturbances gain much traction in what we call the main development region, where we often

01:11see tropical systems form and thrive this time of the year because of this very dry, dusty

01:17Saharan air.

01:18There are indications that beginning around the second week of September, things will begin

01:22to change, so if we see any development between now and Labor Day, it's going to be out of

01:28this stalled front in this weak zone of low-pressure marinating near the northeastern Gulf.

01:32By the way, this is pretty fascinating.

01:34The last time we had back-to-back Labor Days without a named storm in the Atlantic Basin.

01:39We didn't have one in 2024.

01:40We're probably not going to have one in 2025.

01:42It was back in the early 1990s.

01:44We've gone more than 30 years since we had back-to-back Labor Days without a named tropical

01:49system in the Atlantic, and we're going to probably do it this year.

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