- 5 months ago
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00:00High drive to left, Luriano back, out of here, it's a home run fest here in San Diego.
00:17Now, back to Will and Dibby on 95.7 The Game.
00:21A home run fest you say, Dwayne.
00:23It was a fest.
00:24Oh my goodness. The Giants are just weird.
00:30They're a weird baseball team.
00:32It's a good way to put it.
00:33They are. They're very weird.
00:35How else would you describe them?
00:38Like, I don't know, you got better players, which made you get worse, somehow.
00:47Here's Kipe, like, celebrating a home run fest.
00:50That after four weeks where all home games were just absolutely drab and awful, seemingly losing almost all of them.
00:58Drab.
00:59You spent a very healthy portion of the season double-digit games over .500, and now you sit here, like, falling all the way out of it, but not really?
01:12I tell you what, MLB Network knows where the hotbed is.
01:16You want to know what game they're showing at night?
01:18Right? No.
01:19You don't?
01:20I do, but I don't know.
01:22No, Mark.
01:23Not from you.
01:24That's not a great way to do a radio show.
01:26Do you want to know, X?
01:27No, I don't.
01:29I'm good.
01:29All right, let's go to commercial.
01:31Best of, coming up next.
01:32Yeah, exactly.
01:33No, they're showing the Padre Giant game.
01:35Big game.
01:36Playoff implications all over the place.
01:39It's a must win, Mark.
01:40MLB Network, and I don't know if this is to promote their game coming up later,
01:43they just showed the wild card standings in the National League, and guess which team
01:49they have on the board as a wild card contender.
01:54That would be the Higantes.
01:56San Francisco Giants, yeah.
01:57Five and a half out.
01:59Just one half game behind the St. Louis Cardinals.
02:02Did you deep dive?
02:03I did.
02:03I did the deep dive.
02:04All right, let's hear it.
02:05Well, the deep dive starts 366 days ago, and it does not involve the Orange and Black.
02:14That host is what?
02:16It involves a team known as the Detroit Tigers, and I was thinking about where the Giants are,
02:22and everyone talks about Detroit last year, and oh my God, what a run by Detroit, and
02:27it carried over into this year.
02:29So, I looked at it.
02:30The Giants right now are 61 and 64.
02:32Last year, after 125 games, Detroit was 61 and 64.
02:38Really?
02:38Exact same record.
02:41Dang.
02:41And I looked okay.
02:42Every 61 and 64 is not created equally, so I wanted to see where Detroit was, and on
02:48this date, yesterday, last year, they were eight and a half out of the wild card.
02:54Okay.
02:54They were behind Minnesota, Boston, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and one other team that they would
03:03wind up not passing, but they were able to get all the way up and into the wild card.
03:09Yeah.
03:09So, how did Detroit do it?
03:11Well, the first thing you need to do is play really well.
03:13Yeah, you've got to win some of those games.
03:15They went 25 and 12 over the last 37, which is not out of the, I mean, it's good.
03:21It's very good.
03:22It's great.
03:22Yeah, what is that?
03:22Almost 670 baseball?
03:24Something like that.
03:25Yeah, that's very, very strong.
03:26Very strong.
03:27So, they wound up 25 and 12, but what also happened was Minnesota, 12 and 26.
03:33Boston, 16 and 22.
03:36Tampa, 18 and 21.
03:38Seattle went 21 to 16, but Seattle only had a one-game lead on Detroit.
03:43Detroit passed all four of them.
03:45They wound up with 86 wins.
03:48They got in the wild card.
03:49They won the wild card series, and then eventually would get knocked out in the next round, but
03:54they were in that spot.
03:56They, at the time, fan graphs, I looked it up, they had a 1.1% chance of being the wild
04:02card team on August 18th of last year.
04:05So, I thought, huh, Giants are 61 and 64.
04:09What does that mean for the Giants?
04:11Well, they're only five and a half back in the wild card.
04:14Three games better than Detroit.
04:16They only have to get by three teams.
04:20And right now, the one other thing is, Detroit, at that point, had a minus three run differential.
04:26The Giants are minus one.
04:28Minus one.
04:28Almost identical.
04:29And you said their playoff percentage was 1.1?
04:32Correct.
04:32Yeah, the Giants is 2.4.
04:34Right.
04:352.4.
04:35So, twice as likely as Detroit was.
04:38So, you look at it, and you think, huh, what would the Giants need to do to get up to
04:44where the third wild card is?
04:46And that would be 86 wins.
04:47So, the Giants would have to go 25 and 12.
04:51Yeah.
04:51So, Detroit went 25 and 12.
04:54The Giants would have to go 25 and 12, probably at least.
04:58Only passing three teams.
05:00So, I'm not saying that anything about the math.
05:03I'm not saying anything about this team is hot and watch out.
05:07But the fact that Detroit last year, same situation.
05:11Actually, a worse situation.
05:13It was a worse situation.
05:14Further back, more teams to climb over, and Detroit was able to do it going 25 and 12.
05:20So, that's not me saying it's going to happen or anything like that, but it just happened
05:26last year.
05:26Yeah.
05:26So, that's today's Deep Dive Dibs.
05:29I mean, I wonder if Dibs would go all the way into the abyss.
05:36I would love to know who Detroit played over those final 37 games.
05:42Was there potentially a soft spot in the schedule?
05:45I don't know.
05:46The Giants do not have that.
05:48They are in San Diego now.
05:50They'll be in Milwaukee this weekend.
05:52They come home for the Chicago Cubs.
05:54Sure, there's various Baltimores and Colorados that will happen the rest of the way, but
05:59there are still two series with the St. Louis Cardinals.
06:02You could look at that as a positive.
06:04That's one of the teams they need to catch.
06:06They're only a half game behind them.
06:08You still have two series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and while not a great team, it's
06:12not a terrible team and a team that seemingly has given the Giants trouble of late.
06:15And then, oh, by the way, there's also seven games left with the Dodgers.
06:20Yeah.
06:20Oh, yeah.
06:21So, you're going to have to go 25-12 or so through all of that.
06:28And, I mean, I can't tell you that it's not going to happen.
06:32I would certainly bet against it.
06:34Of course.
06:35It seems very unlikely.
06:362.4% is the Fangraph's odds, so you're looking at about 45-1 or worse odds to make it happen.
06:45And the key for Detroit last year, Mark, was you win the head-to-heads.
06:50In other words, they're behind Boston, as mentioned.
06:53Well, you had Boston at home.
06:54You took two of three.
06:55You're behind Kansas City.
06:57You went to Kansas City in mid-September, and you swept Kansas City.
07:01And that's a clean three that you picked up on the Royals, who were a team that you ended up trying to catch.
07:08And Tampa Bay, a team that was ahead of you.
07:11You swept Tampa Bay.
07:12So, if you look at the Giants, and really you've got San Diego three more times, and San Diego is one of the teams you're chasing.
07:18These are the games where you can pick up a clean game with every win.
07:23So, yeah, 25-12 is difficult, but it has to be the right 25-12.
07:30And I don't know if I'm really even thinking about catching the Dodgers, but you're behind Cincinnati and the Cardinals, right?
07:38And then the Mets.
07:39And then the Mets.
07:40Those are the likely three.
07:41I think San Diego might be too far to reach.
07:44So, if you're just looking at those teams, I don't think you play—oh, God, you played Cincinnati six of the first nine, I think.
07:51So, I hope you don't have Cincinnati again.
07:53No, they don't have Cincinnati again.
07:54Yeah, the Mets are five and a half ahead of the Giants, and the Potters are two and a half more ahead of them.
08:01Right.
08:02So, that's a full eight ahead of the Giants right now.
08:04So, you just focus on the Mets and the Cardinals and the Cubs.
08:07And I would bet that the Cardinals and Cubs still have some head-to-heads left because they're division rivals.
08:13And so, there could be some splits going on.
08:17But before we get too excited about any of these scenarios, these Padre games are everything.
08:24And because you've dug a hole—God, the hole you dug at home, right?
08:28With getting swept by San Diego.
08:30You got swept by everyone, basically.
08:33These would have to be basically all wins.
08:36And again, 25-12 is—that's a great finish.
08:41Even that might not be enough, but—
08:44You're doing a little Morgan Freeman Shawshank thing right now.
08:49You're selling hope.
08:52Right.
08:53Hope is dangerous.
08:54Well, it's also the most wonderful of things.
08:58But I just don't know if I'm ready to buy hope right now.
09:02You're asking me to yawk in.
09:04And I don't know if I'm ready to yawk in right now.
09:08Yeah.
09:09And I'm really not asking you to lock in.
09:12Well, you're giving an example of where what the Giants need to do, though unlikely, is still possible.
09:22And I'm very comfortable over here in my not possible hole.
09:25Like, I had to dig.
09:27I had to dig quite a bit.
09:28You know me.
09:29I don't get to pessimism very easily.
09:32But I had to dig very hard for this hole, and I am now sitting in it.
09:37And I don't know how easy it's going to be to climb up out of this hole.
09:41It'll be near impossible.
09:43And, you know, I'm not asking you yet to come out of that hole.
09:47But I'm looking at a 37-game sample earlier this year, because they need to go 25-12.
09:54They were 23-14, and they're opening 37, which is not 25-12.
10:00And, by the way, that 37th game, they put up 9 in the 11th at Chicago to beat the Cubs.
10:06That game was bananas.
10:07Yeah.
10:08I mean, they don't have a 25-12 on their resume, but damn near in the beginning of the year.
10:14Yeah, yeah.
10:15Look, look.
10:16I'm not trying to do anything here.
10:18It feels like you're trying to sell a little bit of hope.
10:22And here's what I'll tell you.
10:23Here's what I'll tell you.
10:24You know I have a rule when it comes to these things.
10:26Yep.
10:26Because you can get me to root for the ridiculous.
10:31You absolutely can.
10:32I am all about hope.
10:34I am all about optimism.
10:35And I am all about sports is surprising.
10:38That's why we love it.
10:40So, talk to me when you've won more games than you've lost.
10:45And I, so, sure, win four more in a row.
10:49And then I will yuck in.
10:50Yep.
10:51I will drive to Moraga and sit next to you and your daughter, and we will yuck in together.
10:58And we will watch a Giants game.
10:59Awesome.
11:00And we will root hard.
11:01That would be a sweep of San Diego and winning at Milwaukee to open up that series.
11:06Okay.
11:07With Kiwi Tang throwing tonight.
11:09Hey, guys, I just want that game to matter.
11:11Oh, that's right.
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