- 5 months ago
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00The beauty of something like, for instance, being married but not living together.
00:06I don't know what every day holds.
00:08I don't know when I'm going to see her as much as possible,
00:12similar to the way I look at the idea of a Super Bowl window.
00:15This would be more of a supper bowl window.
00:18Very well played.
00:19I'll give you a three.
00:20I'll take it.
00:20It's early in the show.
00:21And welcome back.
00:22Yeah, thank you.
00:22You were off yesterday, so you're a little bit more generous than you normally would be.
00:25Three day, but anyway.
00:27And I don't even know if you would serve it in a bowl.
00:28So it was a bit of a stretch.
00:30I mean.
00:32With couscous, you can kind of put that in a bowl and mix and mingle.
00:35I love those plates from Crate and Barrel that really could be either.
00:39They got the high edges.
00:40They're a plate, but they could be a bowl.
00:43I love it.
00:44If you want them to be.
00:44We have the same.
00:45What do you want them to be?
00:46Exactly.
00:47You do it.
00:48Anyway, my point is, is I don't really even believe in the idea of a Super Bowl window.
00:53Because I feel, and this, maybe this gives everybody a little bit of a window into one another.
01:00And why, Dibs, I always seem so damn positive and hopeful.
01:06Well, the way I look at it is, you don't really have a reason not to be.
01:11I don't ever, no matter how stupid the team looks on paper, I don't ever go into a season
01:20and go, well, they're going to suck.
01:24I don't do that.
01:25Well, you don't have to do that because your teams aren't really ever in that spot.
01:29Usually not.
01:30Although not in this generation of our lives.
01:33Chip Kelly, Jim Tomsula.
01:35Well, when we grew up, the Niners were wonderful and seen.
01:39Everything else sucked, always sucked, and you could set your watch to it.
01:44But that's where the little kid in me still lives.
01:47Like, if you ask a six-year-old, they're going to tell you it's going to be a great year.
01:52They don't know about the cap.
01:55They don't know who they got rid of.
01:57They don't know who's holding out.
01:59They're just like, this is amazing.
02:00And the way my brain works is, like, I don't know that we won't be surprised.
02:08Sports gives us that all the time.
02:12All the time.
02:13Like, what did people say in Detroit about the Tigers prior to last year?
02:18Well, who are these guys?
02:20A bunch of jumps.
02:22Cheap owners.
02:23What are we doing?
02:24And they went to the playoffs last year, and they're going to go to the playoffs again this year.
02:28And who knows?
02:29Like, so, that's kind of the way I look at it.
02:32Just because you're coming off of a bad year doesn't mean that this year is going to be a bad year.
02:37And, in fact, if you ask Vegas, there is quite a bit of belief and evidence that the Niners are not going to be bad this year.
02:46People do not think the Niners are going to be bad this year.
02:49Well, Vegas doesn't.
02:50The over-under is 10.5.
02:51And so, you can look at a number of factors as to why Vegas is so bullish on the 49ers, and you can look at all the different reasons, and I would agree with all of them.
03:01It's a schedule.
03:02It's a quarterback.
03:03It's a coach.
03:04It is, you know, other people around the quarterback.
03:08It's a defensive coordinator who's come home, and he's really good at what he does.
03:12There's a lot of things that are arrow-up for the Niners.
03:14Absolutely.
03:15And so, for instance, when we look at a certain player, like, here's a good exercise, you think McCaffrey's going to get hurt this year?
03:22Yeah.
03:23Bad?
03:24No.
03:25Okay.
03:25What's more likely?
03:2815 games or more, or let's call it like...
03:34Seven games or fewer, right?
03:35Or how about an even bigger number?
03:38How about 10 games or fewer?
03:40What's more likely?
03:41I would say 15 or more, but honestly, with that player, that's not a bet I would ever make with my money.
03:48You don't have to make the bet.
03:48Because he's had both of those seasons.
03:50Yes, he has.
03:51Like, constantly.
03:52I mean, how many seasons has he played?
03:55What year are we in for Christian?
03:56I think we're in year eight or nine.
04:00Let me look it up.
04:00Because I can think of what.
04:02He had, obviously, one season with the Niners.
04:04He's played...
04:04This is year 10, yeah.
04:05He's played eight seasons.
04:08Okay.
04:08Yes.
04:08How many of them have been totally cratered by injury?
04:11Three?
04:12Four.
04:13Four?
04:14He played three in 2020.
04:16He played seven in 2021.
04:19Oh, no.
04:19I guess 2022 he played for both teams.
04:21So, three seasons.
04:22Last year would be the third.
04:24So, eight.
04:24So, five out of eight.
04:27Cruisin'.
04:28It's almost a coin flip.
04:30But, it is...
04:31The reason I ask you that is, you don't ever hear anybody say that.
04:36Nobody's out in the streets being like, Christian's going to play 16 games this year.
04:40Christian's going to run for 1,500 yards this year.
04:44Christian is...
04:45Like, you don't hear that.
04:48And so, I think that this whole thing has a massive bias to it.
04:53And it is simply whatever we most recently saw.
04:56That's it.
04:57That's it.
04:58Anybody who's down on the Niners.
05:00Anybody who thinks Trent Williams is going to get hurt.
05:03Anybody who thinks Christian's going to get hurt.
05:04But, any of that.
05:06It all comes from...
05:08It's just what you saw last.
05:10I don't think there's any question that it is more likely than not that Christian has a healthy-ish season.
05:20That Trent has a healthy-ish season.
05:23And that the 49ers have more wins than losses.
05:26That's way more likely than the opposite.
05:28Of course, the opposite's on the table.
05:31But it's way more likely that those things...
05:34Trent doesn't play fewer games than...
05:38Right?
05:38He doesn't, like, miss more games than he plays.
05:41I know he's getting older.
05:43He's not going to play 17, I wouldn't think.
05:46But to hear people talk right now, it's like he's going to play four.
05:49No, probably not.
05:51Probably not.
05:52And McCaffrey's average over eight seasons is 12 games a season.
05:56Yeah.
05:57And that is including the year where he had three, he had seven, and he had four.
06:01Yeah.
06:01So those were the injury years.
06:03And when he was healthy, he was really healthy.
06:06And what's interesting is the first time that he led the league in total touches, the next
06:11year he got hurt.
06:12And then the next time he led the league in total touches, the next year he got hurt.
06:16So now we're one year removed from that, and so...
06:19But what has happened each year coming off of the injury year?
06:24What's happened?
06:25Well, the first time he played seven games for Carolina.
06:28Okay.
06:29And he had 442 yards rushing and one touchdown.
06:32Okay.
06:33And what happened coming off of that season?
06:35That's the year where he got traded, and he came here, and he was amazing.
06:40Okay.
06:40And then the following year, he led the league in touches, and then last year he got hurt.
06:43So if you follow the pattern, this year would be a bounce-back year.
06:48But I would say...
06:49He's rested.
06:50Yeah, but I mean, 12 games feels to be about the number that you would expect based on his
06:55track record.
06:56That's his average.
06:57Well, but the average is totally...
06:59I mean, again, you're talking about eight seasons, and when there's an injury, it's like
07:03then you miss almost all of them.
07:05Yep.
07:05And that takes the average one direction.
07:07And then, I guess my optimism comes from the idea that there are certain players.
07:12Isaac Garendo's one of them.
07:14Isaac Garendo has not proven that he can make it through two months.
07:17Yep.
07:18As an NFL player.
07:19He's never proven it.
07:20Christian has proven many times over now that he can handle the rigors of an NFL season.
07:27He can handle all of those hits.
07:29And he can make it.
07:31I'm not saying he's definitely going to.
07:34He hasn't always.
07:35But his body does have that capability.
07:38You remember when Jordan Mason got those first few games last year?
07:42And then he did an interview.
07:43And he said he went and talked to Christian pretty early in the season.
07:48Maybe two, three games in after being an every down back.
07:52And he went over to Christian.
07:53He's like, how the hell do you do this for a whole year?
07:55Like, are you crazy?
07:57And the answer is, by the way, yeah.
07:58Yeah.
07:59Yeah, he is.
08:00Christian McCaffrey's nuts.
08:02I think all NFL players are, to a certain degree.
08:05But to be able to be a bell cow running back with all of those hits that you can take,
08:09you do have to prove that your body even has that capability of making it through a year.
08:14He's done that.
08:15And it's not only carrying the ball, it's also catching the ball.
08:18And two years ago, he had 67 catches to go along with 272 carries.
08:22So his .339 led the league.
08:24And back in Carolina, he had .403 in a year.
08:28And that was, you know, back when we just ran you into the ground.
08:32And so I do wonder about this year, because if you look at the backups,
08:36Isaac Garendo is still hurt in camp.
08:39Jordan James is a rookie.
08:41Amir Abdullah has looked pretty good in little baby spots in camp.
08:45But, like, depth-wise, you don't have Jordan Mason.
08:48You don't have Raheem Mostert.
08:49You don't have the same, I think, safety net that you used to have at running back.
08:54And so I think about Shanahan, and he gets in these games,
08:58and I have done the numbers before about Shanahan with the lead.
09:02When they have the lead late in games, they win,
09:05and it's because they have Christian McCaffrey.
09:07So you're going to have to use him a lot in a lot of these games
09:11if you have, you know, one or two score leads.
09:14Well, I mean, it's an interesting sort of, like, predictive piece, if you will.
09:18So, you know, you say those numbers, 340 touches, 400 touches.
09:23I'm sure every Niner fan is like, well, could we not do that?
09:26Like, it'd be great if we could have a full year, and let's just do, like,
09:29I don't know, what do you think?
09:31300 touches.
09:32Just 300 touches, not 350 touches.
09:35I promise you, Kyle Shanahan would not hesitate to go north of 300 touches.
09:41He's not scared at all.
09:42And, yes, to the point where you might flirt with overuse.
09:48You might flirt with having him in a game too late.
09:51I promise you that'll happen once or twice,
09:54where the Niners are up 20 with six minutes to go,
09:57and Christian's out there, and you'll yell at your TV,
10:00what's he still doing in there?
10:01Get him out of there, right?
10:03Like, that's, but that's the nature of this particular biz
10:07and this particular beast, you know?
10:10Like, they're willing to take those risks.
10:13And those are inherent, and it's football and all of that stuff.
10:16But I guess I just look at it from that perspective, you know?
10:21Very much so.
10:22When people say why, I often respond, why not?
10:26Why not?
10:27Why can't Trent Williams play 15 games this year?
10:30Why not?
10:31I mean, he absolutely can, and you hope that he will,
10:34and he's in camp this year, and he's got, you know,
10:37the tragedy hopefully behind him, and the ankle is also behind him.
10:41And you would figure that, you know, a big tackle like that,
10:45he's bound to miss a game or two along the way
10:47just based on the fact that he's a big guy, and he's old,
10:51and he's asked to do things that, you know,
10:53younger men maybe can or can't do.
10:55So you build that into, I think, the system of just playing football.
11:00But the McCaffrey piece becomes the most important one
11:03because I'm looking at 2023, and he played in all 16,
11:08and then he sat out the last game against the Rams because they all did,
11:11and they lost that game against L.A.
11:13Who cares?
11:14And, you know, he had 22, 20, 18, 20, 19.
11:18That's the opening carries, let alone catches, and so that's how it's going to go.
11:24Well, I mean, if the season started tomorrow, what do you think the over-under is for his carries?
11:29For the carries?
11:30If you're playing a game tomorrow.
11:32Probably, I'd put it about 250 for the season.
11:35Oh, I mean, for that game.
11:36For that game.
11:37For the opener?
11:38Yeah, week one.
11:39Probably, I'd say 17.
11:41Take the over.
11:42Yeah, go ahead and pencil him in for 17.
11:44Well, depending on how the game goes.
11:45Of course.
11:46It's Seattle, and, you know, if you're able to get a big enough lead,
11:50then you're going to spell him late,
11:51but the way that Shanahan usually spells his running backs is early,
11:56where, you know, third or fourth series, McCaffrey's going to be out,
12:00and you're going to go to the backup and let the backup get a little bit,
12:02give McCaffrey a blow, but you go late in these games,
12:05and I'm just looking at it here.
12:07Even the opener against Pittsburgh that year,
12:09you win 30-7, McCaffrey has 22 carries for $1.52
12:15in a game that was never in doubt,
12:18and Shanahan gave it to him 22 times.
12:21You know why?
12:22Because you can't stop him.
12:23Yes, they needed it.
12:24Right.
12:24They needed it.
12:25And you got seven yards of carry in that game.
12:27And this is what I'm getting at with the conversation that we started
12:30on the crossover with regard to all of the signings.
12:33These are either new acquisitions, extensions, or what have you,
12:38even if it's a player that's been here for a while and got extended.
12:41We started talking about, essentially over the last calendar year or so,
12:45all of the extensions and acquisitions that have been at a high level,
12:49big names with the Niners, Giants, and Warriors.
12:52If I gave you a do-over, if I gave you a mulligan on any of them,
12:55what would you say?
12:57Who do you want to go back on?
12:59And part of my thought process is, because you could look at this,
13:02like Stiney was, and be like, well, nothing has worked.
13:05Well, they traded for Jimmy Butler.
13:07You still, you got out of the first round, but that's it.
13:11You signed Willie Adamas.
13:13He spent months underperforming.
13:15You extended Matt Chapman at age 32.
13:18Got hurt for an extended period this year.
13:21You traded for Rafi Devers.
13:22You haven't been able to win a game after that.
13:25Go to the Niners.
13:26You extended Brandon Iyuk.
13:27Disaster.
13:28You extended McCaffrey.
13:30He got hurt.
13:31You extended Williams.
13:32He got hurt.
13:34Would you do any of those again?
13:35I also look at the individual and how they specifically played.
13:41I'm not going to blame the individual for the way that the seasons went.
13:46So let me, Jimmy Butler, did he play well?
13:49Yeah.
13:49And played really well, right?
13:50Played great.
13:51Okay.
13:51So I'm keeping Jimmy.
13:53Is Matt Chapman, as a Giant, played well?
13:56He's done great, yeah.
13:57Okay.
13:58I'm keeping Matt Chapman.
13:59How about Willie Adamas?
14:01I think he's been awesome the last two months.
14:03He's trending toward being the player you thought you were going to get.
14:06So I'm going to go ahead and put him in the keep category.
14:09Keeping Willie Adamas.
14:10How about Rafi Devers?
14:12It's too early to make the call, but if I had to make the call now, that would be regrettable.
14:17Okay.
14:17Except for you also, like, you gave up essentially nothing that's helping the other side either.
14:23Future Dodger.
14:24Okay, yeah.
14:25Future Dodger, maybe.
14:27Kyle Harrison's still in the, in other words, like, if you didn't do the trade, what are
14:31those four players doing to keep you in this race?
14:34Right.
14:34Not much.
14:34Not much at all.
14:35Okay.
14:36But I'm with you.
14:37That's probably too soon to even really form a major opinion.
14:41Devers is Devers.
14:42I'm keeping Devers.
14:44If that deal was put in front of me again today, I'll do it.
14:47I'd do it a hundred times in a row.
14:49Go to the Niners.
14:52Trent Williams.
14:53Would you extend him?
14:54You still want him on the team?
14:55Sure.
14:55If he's going to play until he's 40, then, yeah, you don't have another left tackle.
14:59So, who's going to protect Brock Purdy's backside?
15:03And already we are, you know, not thrilled with the right tackle, McKivitt, so you're going
15:07to have somebody off the street to be your left tackle?
15:11I'm absolutely keeping him.
15:12McCaffrey?
15:13Yeah, that deal was pretty small when you look at, like, what the numbers were.
15:17So, yeah, it didn't affect you to be able to do anything else in the free agency.
15:22Are you?
15:23Look, that's a problem.
15:24And that's a problem.
15:26And I'm not really totally ready to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
15:30And you and I were getting into it last week about how he played, and he did not play well.
15:34And, yeah, it was probably a quarter or two where it was like, all right, he seems to be
15:38back, and then he got hurt.
15:39And that sucks because it's two ligaments, and he's out probably until late October or November.
15:45We don't yet know.
15:46But right now, injury aside, what that did to your offseason, that was one I would like
15:52to do over.
15:54Agreed.
15:55I would like to go back to March and give him $24 million a year.
15:59Which is what the rumored initial offer was kind of about.
16:04If he would have said yes.
16:05If he would have said yes, definitely.
16:07If it had gone the way that it did go, and he kept saying no, I would go back and do,
16:13and this is not to do a victory lap, I'll go back and do exactly what I suggested at the
16:18time.
16:19I mean, I said it.
16:20I said it on this show.
16:21We did a bunch of content on it.
16:23I said, I'm out on Brandon Ayoub.
16:25I'd have traded him.
16:26I'd have traded him.
16:27That would have turned out to probably be the right thing to do, especially with the way
16:33your wide receiver core sort of played last year and the way things have developed.
16:38I think it's super odd to pick a wide receiver in the first round and then a couple months
16:44later overpay your angry wide receiver who took you on a really odd holdout experience,
16:53wrong shorts, hold in, all of this stuff, and then you have these two first round wide
16:59receivers.
17:00One of them's really, really expensive, and you're not terribly happy with them.
17:05And then the other one is supposedly the heir apparent.
17:10You know, you picked him in the first round.
17:11He's supposed to have a runway to be a wide receiver one, and then they didn't create it
17:16for him, and it kind of accidentally got created because Ayoub gets hurt, but it wasn't created
17:20because Ricky got shot.
17:22Like, the whole thing just went completely sideways.
17:24But yeah, I'm with you.
17:26That's the one that is regrettable.
17:29But none of these people I'm talking about, I'm not going to look at any of what the teams
17:34have done with them and say, even though things have gotten sideways or unfortunate or unlucky
17:42and lack of team success, like, all of them are still completely in a spot where they have
17:51the capability to play really well.
17:55Absolutely.
17:55I think it applies to all of them.
17:59Nothing has been disproven.
18:01And so, yes, I still completely want, largely, I want those players on my team.
18:08You do.
18:08And the interesting one for me is the Jimmy Butler part because that might become preventative
18:14of keeping Jonathan Kamenga.
18:16And if that is the case, and you're okay with that, well, then Jimmy Butler's got to go
18:20out for the next two years and earn his $52 million a year contract.
18:26And at times, in previous stops, Jimmy Butler has had his situations sour.
18:32So, so far with Jimmy Butler, you're still on the honeymoon.
18:36He is in Jamaica with the lovely Christy, and he's loving it.
18:40I didn't like that thought.
18:41But anyway, go ahead.
18:42No, they're still in the honeymoon.
18:43He can't come.
18:44You had a wonderful honeymoon, and that's where he and the Warriors are right now.
18:48Yes.
18:48They're having fruity drinks on ice, and they're on lounge chairs, and they've got no care in
18:54the world.
18:55There's nice.
18:56And if things this year go a different direction, then you might feel a different way.
19:01Now, I hope that they won't, but I do think that they're still in the honeymoon phase.
19:04For sure.
19:05And I agree with you.
19:06But here's another way of looking at it.
19:09Because I know a lot of people will, like, that debate has been so kicked around over the
19:14last six months.
19:15If Jimmy Butler means that now you have to part ways with Jonathan Kaminga, that means
19:19you're chasing something for the now that's very unlikely, and what you're giving up is
19:24this future chip, right, who could really become something, even though I'd argue that
19:28that's pretty unlikely, too.
19:30But, like, let's go back three years.
19:33Go back.
19:34This is my favorite part of this whole conversation.
19:37You're in a championship window.
19:40I was told the Warriors were out.
19:43They're out.
19:44It was over.
19:45It was two timelines.
19:45It was done.
19:46Yep.
19:47Durant had left.
19:48Stop chasing.
19:50Why would you do that?
19:51That's not smart.
19:53That's not the long play.
19:55And that's a low percentage idea.
19:57And then what happened?
19:59Don't let us win another bleepin' championship.
20:02Yeah.
20:03And they did.
20:04But they didn't even really chase that one.
20:06They just happened to win it.
20:07They just won.
20:08Right.
20:09Right.
20:09So, like, what does that mean?
20:11Championship window.
20:12They were out of it, supposedly.
20:14Yeah.
20:14But they weren't.
20:16That's because they had their quarterback, to bring it back to the Niners, with Steph Curry,
20:21and you still had Clay, who was more than productive, and Draymond, and Jordan Poole, who was
20:27great in the regular season, to help get you there.
20:29Or, you still were able to, with your quarterback, Steph Curry, you were good enough with him
20:35to be in that championship window.
20:37And that's what I think about when it comes to the NFL.
20:40And I'm looking at the list of teams with playoff droughts.
20:44The Jets have gone 14 years without the playoffs.
20:46That's so crazy.
20:47Carolina's at 7, along with Atlanta.
20:49And you run through all these other teams that are at 4, 3, and 2.
20:53And if you look at all of them, you'd be hard-pressed to look at any of them and say,
20:58yeah, championship window.
21:00You've got the Patriots, the Raiders, the Saints, the Bears, the Colts.
21:04These are teams that don't have that one thing we're talking about.
21:08Their quarterback.
21:09Their quarterback.
21:10That's it.
21:11That's it.
21:12That's it.
21:12So, that's why, to me, when I look at a board of NFL teams,
21:17and you, to me, the question is not like, are they in a window?
21:21But could you imagine, in your wildest dreams, that team winning it this year?
21:28And how many teams would be on that list right now?
21:32Do you know what I mean?
21:33Yeah.
21:33It's not about, are they in a window or whatever?
21:36Because even when you're in a window,
21:38it's still highly unlikely that you're going to be the last team.
21:42Like, you know what I mean?
21:43But how about Philly?
21:45How about Philly?
21:46After the way things went down the previous year,
21:49how did you feel about Philly going into last year?
21:53Yeah, they were a playoff team.
21:55They were a good team.
21:57Their own fan base was livid with the coach and the quarterback.
22:02Livid.
22:03Their wide receiver, one, was livid with the quarterback all the way up until the end.
22:08And then they dominated and won the whole thing.
22:12So, I don't know, man.
22:15To me, that's the best stuff in sports is when it surprises us.
22:182021, you had the Rams, a four seed, beat the Bengals, a four seed.
22:24There you go.
22:24And the Rams were 12-5.
22:26The Bengals were 10-7.
22:28And you had Tennessee and Kansas City and Buffalo.
22:32Even New England was still a playoff team.
22:33I mean, yet, you know, the Bengals, they won the games.
22:36They won.
22:36They picked their way through.
22:37They got to the Super Bowl.
22:38And the Rams, the same thing.
22:40Four versus four.
22:41One of them won the Super Bowl.
Be the first to comment