00:00Hello, very good day to you. Welcome to your latest Met Office 10 day trend. Now, I do
00:05have some good news for you, if you're in the minority of people not enjoying the fine
00:09sunny weather at the moment, because it's all changed as we go through this weekend
00:13and in particular into next week. Let's start off looking at the pressure trend. And if
00:17you've seen this chart before, you'll know the reds indicate that high pressure is more
00:22likely and high pressure means settled conditions. That's what we have at the moment for the
00:27next few days through the rest of this week. High pressure firmly in control. But as we
00:31go through towards Sunday and more so into towards Monday, we're seeing some blues and
00:35these indicate that low pressure is more likely. And with that, we're going to see the return
00:40of something wet and windy as well. But let's look at the details. And at the moment we
00:44have this whacking great big area of high pressure across the UK, which is why it's
00:49so settled. The jet stream isn't particularly strong and it's just going towards the north
00:53of us, which means we're on the warmer southern side of it. So as well as it being pretty
00:58settled, it is also pretty warm at the moment with temperatures above average for the time
01:02of year. High pressure will continue to dominate as we go through the rest of this week. Notice
01:06some fronts trying to come around towards the north of it. So there will be some wet
01:10weather towards the northwest of the UK, but most places staying fine and settled well
01:14into the weekend. Saturday, yes, the high has drifted off a little bit towards the east,
01:19but still dominating our weather. So another fine settled day. And in fact, by then, because
01:24of the slight change in the wind direction as that high drifts away towards the east,
01:28we're going to have slightly warmer air. So temperatures rising a little bit further,
01:32probably peaking this week on Saturday. But thereafter, things take a bit of a downward
01:37turn in terms of the unsettled weather that's going to arrive. We're likely to see something
01:41a bit wetter arriving as we go through Sunday and then particularly by Monday, a good chance
01:46that we'll have an area of low pressure somewhere near the UK, bringing something wet and windy
01:51to many places. With that, then we're also going to start to see our temperatures dropping.
01:56They're not going to drop sharply, but especially when you factor in that there'll be some wet
02:01and windy weather around, it is going to feel markedly cooler by the start of next week
02:05than it will do through Friday and Saturday, especially. Looking at the details then, if
02:10we wind it back and if we look at Thursday, and like I said, a fine picture for many.
02:15Yes, there'll be a bit of mist and fog first thing, but that will lift and clear away and
02:18away from the very far northwest of Scotland, where there could be a bit of rain around,
02:22it's looking largely dry. Plenty of blue skies around, temperatures getting to highs of around
02:2623 or 24 Celsius. Staying fine as we go through Thursday evening. All the time, though, just
02:31towards the far north of the UK, a bit more cloud and some rain. Again, Friday, largely
02:36fine. High pressure is still firmly in control. Lots of dry weather to be had, perhaps Orkney,
02:41Shetland, seeing a few spells of rain and you can rule out one or two showers elsewhere.
02:45But on the whole, a generally dry picture and temperatures creeping up a little bit
02:49further. 23, 24, possibly even 25 Celsius. So really getting some warmth behind it, especially
02:55if you see any decent sunshine. If we go ahead now to Saturday, and like I said, this is
03:00when we're likely to see the highest temperatures this week. Plenty of sunshine. Yes, there
03:05could be some showers developing. I wouldn't take the position or timing of these particularly
03:09literally, but we do need to watch out for the fact that there could be some hefty showers
03:13on Saturday. But for most of us, another fine day. Plenty of blue skies around, lots
03:18of sunshine, just some fair weather cloud bubbling up here and there and temperatures
03:23even higher. 25, 26. Some charts were showing 27. I think that's pretty unlikely, but nonetheless
03:29mid 20s and so likely to be the warmest spell of the year so far. As we look further ahead,
03:35any showers likely to ease as we go through Saturday night into Sunday. But then we do
03:39start to see something a bit more unsettled pushing in from the West through Sunday. Most
03:43places starting the day fine, but likely to have some outbreaks of showery rain building
03:48across Western parts in particular. These could turn heavy, could turn thundery, particularly
03:53as we head through the afternoon and into the evening. Further east, we're clinging
03:56onto some sunshine and here we'll still have that hot air or warm air across us. And so
04:01temperatures still likely to be in the mid 20 Celsius, but starting to feel cooler where
04:06it turns a bit wet and perhaps even a bit blustery towards Western parts later on. If
04:10we now look ahead to Monday and this is when we're really going to see a bit of a change
04:14coming through. Monday does look like we're going to see this area of low pressure I mentioned
04:19before bringing some fairly wet weather across many parts of the country. And with that,
04:24we're going to have some strong winds and blustery winds could cause some localised
04:28issues. If we look at the rainfall figures that we could expect through Sunday and into
04:33Monday and here are our 36-hour rainfall totals running from midday on Sunday until
04:40midnight on Monday. Ignore the label at the top there. And on the left hand side, I have
04:44the Met Office data and it's highlighting that in total we could see, well, 30 millimetres
04:50on both Sunday and then 30 millimetres again on Monday. So, you know, if you added that
04:55up, you'd be looking at around 50 to 60. But I think it's quite unlikely that anywhere
04:58would actually see that total because you need to get those two extreme events in the
05:04same place. But nonetheless, a very wet spell coming through and the models are in fair
05:08agreement that it's mainly going to be on western parts that we're going to see the
05:12highest totals. The Met Office model wants it across South Wales and down the western
05:16side of the UK. The GFS, the American model, wants it a little bit further north. But you
05:20can see that it's going to be a pretty wet period as we go through Sunday into Monday.
05:25Now, looking further ahead as we go through next week, and this is our pressure anomaly
05:30from ECMWF and the bluey green colours show where lower than average pressure is most
05:36likely. And unfortunately, if it's dry weather that you're a fan of, this indicates that
05:41significantly lower than average pressure is going to dominate the picture as we go
05:45through the next week across much of the UK, particularly across central southern parts.
05:50Northern parts still lower than average, just not as low as elsewhere. And remember, low
05:55pressure means unsettled weather. So if we look at the rainfall anomaly and unsurprisingly,
06:00this paints a wet picture compared to average for the time of year across the majority of
06:04the UK as well. If we quickly also look at our temperatures, though, we'll come on to
06:08these in a bit more detail shortly. And although it is going to be pretty unsettled as if we
06:14look at the week as a whole, temperatures are actually likely to be a little bit above
06:18average for the time of year, not as high as they are at the moment, but still above
06:23average, although not necessarily always feeling it if it is going to be a bit wet
06:27at times too. Looking at things in a little bit more detail, and this is the most likely
06:31scenario for Wednesday, the 15th of May from ECMWF. And you can see that low pressure that
06:37I showed you arriving as we go through Monday doesn't look like it's going to go anywhere
06:42particularly quickly. It's likely to linger across the UK as we go through the middle
06:46of next week, bringing more wet and windy weather for a time or blustery at least. Not
06:51sure how windy it will be, but nonetheless, an unsettled spell as we go through the bulk
06:55of next week with low pressure firmly dominating, which goes in line with those ECMWF anomaly
07:01charts that I just showed you. If we move on a couple of days and look ahead to Friday,
07:05and this is now the most likely scenario, and it hints that low pressure will be starting
07:09to drift away. So possibly turning a little bit less unsettled, a greater chance of seeing
07:16something a bit dry, perhaps a little bit less blustery, a little bit less wet as we
07:21go through next week. But I think I'm clutching at straws trying to see anything a little
07:25bit less unsettled. Really, it could stay pretty wet as we go through much of next week.
07:31Then I mentioned temperatures. So I've gone through rainfall and I already showed you
07:34that on the whole, temperatures are likely to be above average for the time of year as
07:38we go through next week. But if we look at the meteorograms for our capital cities and
07:42they paint an interesting picture. So temperatures, let's take Belfast, for example, well above
07:47average for the time of year at the moment. And then they peak around this weekend, Saturday,
07:52possibly Sunday time, still well above average. And then they do drop down as we see the unsettled
07:57weather feeding its way in. And like I said, it is going to feel more unsettled, more cooler
08:03in the unsettled weather, but they're not really dropping too low. They're still lingering
08:08a little bit above average for the time of year, not as much above average for the time
08:13of year as they are currently. But nonetheless, in any drier, brighter periods that we will
08:18get and amongst the unsettled weather that we see next week, it shouldn't feel too bad
08:22with temperatures a little bit on the mild side. There is plenty of unsettled weather
08:26to come then. And there's the risk of some warnings needed to be required for the heavy
08:31rain both this weekend and as we go into next week, and the risk of some thunderstorms too.
08:37All of this is not unheard of in the summer months. Make sure you are weather ready for
08:42the summer ahead by heading to our website where you can find advice and guidance from
08:46both ourselves and also our partners. That's it for me. Obviously, we will keep you up
08:50to date with the forecast as we get nearer the time to the change from high to low pressure.
08:55I'll see you again soon. Bye bye.
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