00:00Hello, very good day to you. Welcome to your latest Met Office 10 day trend. Now, so far
00:04this summer, it has been a little disappointing, perhaps. And if you're hoping for something
00:08a bit warmer, I do have some good news coming up. If you're hoping for something a bit more
00:12settled, that may not be the case. Currently, we have an active jet stream running across
00:17the UK. In fact, it's running at about 185 miles per hour, which is pretty strong, particularly
00:23for the time of year. That's going to be driving some various weather systems as we go through
00:28the rest of the week. And with that, we do have some cooler air around, which is why
00:32temperatures are several degrees below average for the time of year at the moment. But if
00:36we look at the details for Thursday, and there's a bit of a north-south split, southern areas
00:41having a fairly decent day, lots of sunshine, temperatures just about getting into the low
00:4520s. Further north, though, plenty of showers, perhaps some longer spells of rain and some
00:49blustery winds too. As we go overnight, Thursday night into Friday, we continue to see some
00:55showery rain across northern parts. And then our attention is turning to a waving feature
01:00just to the west-southwest of us that is going to push its way eastwards as we go into Friday
01:06across southern parts in particular. Now, there is a bit of uncertainty with this feature.
01:11There often is when it comes to waving fronts. And as a result, we're not quite sure exactly
01:16where this rain is going to be sitting when it comes to Friday. It could be a bit further
01:21north. Previous model runs want the rain a little bit further north than what is showing
01:25behind me. So just bear in mind that it could be a bit wetter than this suggests across
01:29central southern parts of the UK. Further north and across Scotland, Northern Ireland,
01:34perhaps the far north of England, again, some showers and something a bit drier, perhaps
01:39brighter in between these two systems. But exactly where these boundaries are, there
01:43is some uncertainty. Still, though, worth noting temperatures a few degrees below average
01:48for the time of year, 21, perhaps 22 Celsius at best. As we go through later Friday, more
01:54wet weather across central southern parts. That system does eventually clear through
01:57as we go through overnight into Saturday, but more pulses of rain coming in behind.
02:02And all the time, it's worth noting that some of this rain could be pretty heavy at times.
02:07And then there'll be plenty of showers following in behind, particularly across northern parts
02:10as we go through Saturday itself. Because of that rain, the showers, we are likely to
02:14see rainfall totals building up a little bit. So behind me, I have our 36 hour rainfall
02:19totals from both the Met Office, ECMWF, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
02:24and GFS, the American model. Now, I did mention that the graphics that I just showed you had
02:29the rain quite far south compared to previous runs. This is the previous run here, and it
02:34highlights that we could get perhaps in excess of 40 millimetres over 36 hours across some
02:39central southern parts of the UK, which is a pretty wet day. We don't have any warnings
02:45at the moment. We may need to issue some. It's just nonetheless, it could cause some
02:50problems and it is going to be fairly wet. ECMWF is a bit more widespread in terms of
02:55the rainfall and doesn't have quite the high totals across central southern parts, has
02:58some high totals instead across parts of Northern Ireland. So there is some uncertainty, but
03:02worth noting that GFS is in fairly good agreement with the Met Office model, albeit it doesn't
03:07have quite as high totals, but that's what you would expect because its resolution isn't
03:12as high across the UK. Looking further ahead, though, and on Saturday, like I said, some
03:17further showers in the north, many of those dying out overnight before the showers develop
03:21again quite widely on Sunday. Some of them heavy, could even be thundery at times. Then
03:25another system comes up from the south-southwest as we go into the beginning of next week.
03:30So Monday does look like it is going to be a fairly wet day for many of us. The other
03:34thing, though, to draw your attention to on Monday is this area of high pressure out
03:39towards Scandinavia. And that means, remember, our winds go around an area of high pressure
03:45in a clockwise direction. We're going to be drawing in our air from the south. And so
03:49whilst at the moment temperatures are several degrees below average for the time of year,
03:54it is likely to turn quite a bit warmer as we go through into next week. We can see that
04:00to some extent if we look at the most likely weather regimes and these probabilities in
04:05this chart behind me here. So the dark blue show that positive NAOs most likely at the
04:09moment, which goes in line with those unsettled conditions that I showed you as we go through
04:13the end of the week and into the weekend as well. But then this brighter red is showing
04:19that a Scandinavian high is most likely as we head towards the middle part of next week.
04:24Now, Scandinavian highs can influence the UK quite highly and bring some settled weather.
04:30But at the moment, it looks like that high is going to be shifted just that little bit
04:34too far to the east. So whilst we may see that warmer air coming in from the south,
04:38it doesn't necessarily mean our weather is going to turn particularly settled. But another
04:43way to look at this is if we look at our meridional trends and remember meridional is whether
04:49our air is going to be coming from the north or from the south. The greens indicate that
04:53a fairly neutral pattern is most likely as we go through the end of the week and the
04:56weekend before the reds showing early next week and through the middle part of next week.
05:01That southerly flow that I indicated is most likely, which goes in line with the fact that
05:06our temperatures are set to rise. And we can see that in a different way at the moment.
05:10If we look at our maximum temperature anomaly charts for Friday through to Monday and the
05:16blues indicating that temperatures in many places are several degrees below average for
05:20the time of year, around four or five degrees below for some of us, making it feel pretty
05:24cool considering it is now July. But if we look further ahead and if we show our meteorograms
05:31from ECMWF for our capital cities and they all show a similar trend, I'll take Belfast
05:36for example, but you can see end of the week into the weekend, those temperatures drop
05:41down both by day and by night to several degrees below average, but then they climb up. Worth
05:45noting that there's a little bit of spread, but not actually that much spread considering
05:49the lead time. And when I say they're rising, they're only really rising to around average
05:55for the time of year. Nonetheless, in July, average temperatures, they're fairly high.
05:59And so it is going to feel pretty warm or even possibly hot at times in any sunshine.
06:03But the worst, the main thing to draw from this though, is it is likely to turn significantly
06:09warmer than it has been. A good rise of around four or five degrees perhaps for some of us.
06:14Like I said though, even though the Scandinavian high is likely to bring some warmer air to
06:19us, it doesn't mean it's going to be particularly dry. In fact, if we look at the rainfall anomaly
06:25chart from ECMWF and the greens indicating that for next week from the 8th to the 15th,
06:30we are likely to have slightly wetter than average conditions, more rain coming in from
06:34the southwest because although there is a high out towards Scandinavia, it's likely
06:38to be just that little bit too far to the east to block the wet weather from coming
06:42in. We can also see that if we look at our probabilistic pressure trends and here the
06:47blues are suggesting lower pressure more likely, which is what we'd expect as we go
06:52or what is in line with everything that I've just shown you as we go through into the beginning
06:56of next week. One positive that we can draw from this, I said that the Scandinavian high
07:02might not allow for some drier weather to become more established, but it may. And there
07:09are signs that, well, the best I've got really is the fact that as we head towards the middle
07:14end of next week, the greens showing a neutral pattern. So, it just may not be quite as unsettled
07:21or it's not as likely to be as unsettled as over the end of this week and over the weekend. So,
07:27it could still be quite changeable and there is likely to be some rain at times, but
07:32there's no guarantee there could be something a bit drier. But even if that does develop,
07:36we're more likely to see the unsettled weather returning as we go towards the following weekend.
07:40So, if we do get anything a little bit dry developing, it doesn't look like it will last
07:45particularly long. And we can see that again if we look at our zonal trends. Remember,
07:48this is from west to east or east to west and we have our westerly flow bringing in those systems
07:53from the Atlantic dominating as we go through the weekend. But middle part of next week,
07:58something a little bit more neutral. So, there could be some drier interludes before then the
08:02westerlies likely to return as we go towards the end of next week. So, a fair bit of uncertainty.
08:07I'm confident that we are going to see a rise in our temperatures. Just how settled or drier it's
08:13going to be that I'm not so sure. There could still be a fair bit of rain around as we go
08:17through the next 10 days or so. It's worth also bearing in mind that at this time of year,
08:23hurricane season, obviously hurricane Beryl causing a lot of problems the other side of
08:27the Atlantic. This does increase uncertainty when you look more than seven days ahead. Bye-bye.
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