00:00 Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor.
00:15 I'm Colonel Anil Bhatt.
00:18 Our topic today is Pakistan's growing security challenges on its western border and the Indian
00:26 defense ministers offer for the first time to help Pakistan counter terrorism.
00:36 To discuss this we have Ms. Aparna Rahul who's been working on the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.
00:55 Pakistan has been facing many challenges within the country and on its border with Afghanistan
01:11 and its relations with Afghanistan too.
01:15 The Taliban there are strained. In the past year, 2023, almost every month since January
01:29 23, there have been seven to eight, about seven to eight per month attacks on Pakistan
01:36 army.
01:37 The months of May, April and May, the figure was higher.
01:49 And in the recent past also, there's been a lot of tension between the Tariq Taliban
01:58 and Pakistan and the Pakistan army and the Afghanistan Taliban.
02:08 It's another story that still doesn't stop the Pakistan army from launching all kinds
02:14 of propaganda offensives against India.
02:18 Aparna, would you please share your thoughts on the aspect of Pakistan's challenges as
02:34 far as the Tariq Taliban, Pakistan are concerned and the Afghanistan Taliban?
02:42 Well, for starters, Pakistan has never had a very great relation with Afghanistan as
02:50 the history has always been.
02:53 And when we're talking about the Western border for Pakistan, we have to take into consideration
02:59 also Iran, which is also having some issues in terms of relations with Pakistan.
03:05 And we also need to be talking about Afghanistan part, because at this given point, these are
03:11 the two countries with which Pakistan should be sharing decent relations.
03:17 But unfortunately, it's never been a very cordial relation.
03:20 It's always been an on and off relation.
03:23 Now why do we bring this into the picture?
03:25 It's because the Western border, Pakistan shares the border with Iran and Afghanistan.
03:34 So Iran is more towards the West side and majority of the Balochistan is alongside Iran.
03:42 Now in the past couple of years, I think since Pakistan came to independence, Iran has always
03:50 had a decent relation with Pakistan.
03:52 While in terms of Afghanistan, Pakistan has never had a very good relation with Afghanistan.
04:00 Pakistan built its international relations since 1947 with Pakistan.
04:05 In terms of Afghanistan, Afghanistan in 1948 voted against the inclusion of Pakistan in
04:13 the UN.
04:14 And this was owing to the fact that till date, Afghanistan does not recognize the demarcated
04:23 boundary between the two countries, because it still holds its claims to the Pashtun lands
04:28 across on the Pakistani side.
04:30 So this is where the question of insurgency also pops up from the Pashtun side.
04:36 The Pashtuns view the Durand line between Afghanistan and Pakistan as an artificial
04:43 entity because they have their own families and their relatives right across the border.
04:49 They don't recognize this line as theirs.
04:51 So there has been a lot of ill will, disgruntled feelings, a lot of rebellions that have been
04:58 happening and Afghans have always maintained that Pakistan is illegally occupying their
05:04 area.
05:05 In terms of Iran, Pakistan had very cordial relations.
05:09 In fact, they were like brothers in arms in the start.
05:12 This was because of their animosity towards the Baloch separatists, which were present
05:18 in Iran and were present also in Pakistan.
05:23 And at the same time, these two countries wouldn't want the Baloch to have any kind
05:28 of self-determination for an independent state of Balochistan.
05:33 So given these conditions, they managed to have a decent relation.
05:38 Plus, both of them were part of CENTO.
05:41 Iran helped Pakistan in the past in the war against India in 1971, while Pakistan also
05:47 went ahead and helped Iran in terms of the Iran and Iraq war that was in 1980 to '88.
05:58 So they helped them out.
06:00 They have also carried out a lot of operations together against the Baloch.
06:06 Now coming back to the current times, we have Iran accusing Pakistan of providing safe havens
06:15 to groups like Jaish-e-Aladl, which is actually a new version of the Sunni Deobandi terrorist
06:24 group called Jundullah.
06:27 And they believe that Pakistan is providing safe havens to this particular group.
06:33 So Jaish-e-Aladl is responsible in the past couple of months for carrying out a lot of
06:39 attacks on the Iranian security forces, whether it's the police, whether it's the soldiers,
06:46 so on.
06:47 Recently, there were many of the revolutionary guards.
06:52 Just a moment, please request you to elaborate a little bit on Jaish-e-Aladl.
07:01 Jaish-e-Aladl is actually a new iteration of Jundullah.
07:08 Now Jundullah was basically a group of orthodox, extremely orthodox Sunni Deobandi group.
07:17 And it was later on disbanded.
07:19 Which region?
07:21 This is of Iran, the Balochistan-Iran area.
07:25 So these people are, I mean, Jundullah is basically operating from Pakistani side, as
07:33 Iran is claiming.
07:35 Iran was saying that these people, the Pakistanis were giving safe haven to these groups.
07:42 Now Jundullah was disbanded by 2010.
07:45 By 2010, the group was disbanded upon the arrest of its Emir, Abdul Malik Rigi.
07:51 He was eventually executed.
07:54 But however, this particular group, Jaish-e-Aladl, which has been claiming attacks recently,
08:01 these guys, they advocate for the right of the Sunni Baloch present in the Iranian part
08:06 of Balochistan, the Sistan area.
08:10 And they are catering more to the Sunni citizens of Iran.
08:16 Sunni Baloch citizens, to be precise.
08:19 So with this in mind, the attacks are being carried out also on the Shia communities,
08:26 because this particular group, Jaish-e-Aladl, which is called the Army of Justice, it is
08:33 very anti-Shia.
08:34 So they have carried out plenty of attacks in different regions, like since 2014.
08:44 And these are areas of Saravan, Kasra-e-Kand, Negor, all inside Iran's Sistan and Balochistan
08:52 province.
08:53 Jaish-e-Aladl has mostly targeted the Iran security forces.
08:59 Now these attacks involve suicide bombings, IEDs, kidnappings, killings, so on.
09:06 So Iran has been completely threatened by this particular group.
09:11 Now they somehow believe that all these attacks are happening from the Pakistani soil.
09:16 They orchestrated from the Pakistani soil.
09:18 Hence, when in 2019, 27 of their revolutionary guards were killed in one of the attacks claimed
09:26 by Jaish-e-Aladl, Iran criticized Pakistan for not doing enough to curb its inability
09:32 to stop the terrorism on its soil.
09:35 That time, however, Pakistan had complied with the investigation and tried to help with
09:41 that.
09:42 However, that didn't stop, because later on in the following years, Pakistan also started
09:47 getting attacked from BLA and BLF, BLA Baloch Liberation Army and Baloch Liberation Force.
09:57 These were having their safe havens in Iran, as Pakistan has claimed.
10:01 So both countries have been at each other's throats, pointing fingers, saying that each
10:07 is giving a safe haven to the other.
10:11 And with so much building up in 2023, after numerous number of attacks in Iran from the
10:17 Jaish-e-Aladl cadre, what happened was Iran decided to carry out a strike.
10:27 Just a moment.
10:28 Yes.
10:29 Just a moment.
10:30 Aparna, please.
10:31 Sorry for stopping you.
10:32 Balochistan, there's a lot of Chinese there.
10:36 Are there reports of Baloch groups targeting the Chinese also?
10:44 Yes, it's still very much existing.
10:46 In fact, the Baloch insurgency in Pakistan, even though the Pakistani media says that
10:53 it's come under control, it would be foolish to actually consider it as any kind of lesser
11:01 frequency of the Baloch insurgency at the moment.
11:05 Because the kind of environment that has built in Pakistan at the moment is that most of
11:10 the insurgents have joined hands with the likes of TTP, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan,
11:15 also called the Pakistani Taliban, the Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army, and a lot of new splinter
11:23 groups have popped up.
11:25 So if you're talking about them targeting the Chinese, yes, it's very much happening
11:31 right now because according to the Baloch, with the Chinese colonization, they believe
11:38 that the Chinese will marginalize the Baloch population in Balochistan.
11:44 With Pakistan trying to provide more investments with the CPEC coming into the picture, BRI
11:51 projects, Gwadar now has been completely sealed off with military forces without people getting
11:56 entry in that area, Baloch feel that somehow they're being exploited, their own minerals
12:04 and resources are being exploited, but then do not gain from it.
12:09 Plus, there have been a lot of reports, like a couple of years ago, there was a major general,
12:17 Ayubin Bilal, who was ordered by the Chinese to carry out a kill and dump policy in the
12:23 area of Balochistan.
12:24 He carried out this operation Ground Zero in order to curb the Baloch insurgency.
12:30 And this meant like wiping out the Baloch race.
12:35 People in Balochistan don't get the basic education.
12:38 At the same time, their own language and their heritage, culture, it's all being curbed as
12:45 the way Punjab wants it.
12:48 The people of Balochistan are actually somewhat feeling very disgruntled because of this.
12:54 And at the same time, this is a form of colonization because the people are going missing.
13:02 If you raise your voice against the military, the Pakistani military or any of the law enforcements,
13:08 you are going to go missing.
13:09 There'll be abductions.
13:10 And these have been going on for a very long time.
13:14 The protests are falling on even like the deaf ears.
13:18 So coming back to the terrorism angle, yes, TTP also has joined hands with the Baloch
13:27 network, which is working under Bras.
13:30 You have BLA, BLF all working together.
13:33 So now the human intelligence also has increased.
13:36 Area of influence also has increased.
13:39 So insurgency has been on a complete uptick at this point.
13:43 Not to mention Pakistan was hoping that after the exit of the Americans from the Afghan
13:51 soil, they would have some kind of a strategic depth in Afghanistan since they had been helping
13:57 Taliban out for a very long time.
14:00 During the Afghan-Soviet war, Pakistan was funding the Mujahideen's fighting in Afghanistan.
14:06 And at that time, even Iran was backing them.
14:09 But what happened was when Pakistan in the third Afghan civil war, when Pakistan changed
14:16 its alliance completely to Taliban, this is where Iran backed out because Iran was fighting
14:22 for the Northern Alliance.
14:25 They were fighting with the Northern Alliance, which was completely anti-Taliban.
14:29 So during this time, Pakistan started putting its seeds right in the soil, hoping that with
14:35 time, when Taliban comes to power, Pakistan would have some kind of strategic depth and
14:40 influence in the area.
14:43 During this time, since during 1996, Taliban comes to power, didn't stay in power for too
14:49 long.
14:50 By 2001, Americans came.
14:52 Upon the exit of Americans, the Afghan Taliban came to power again with the help of Pakistan.
14:58 But Pakistan was not able to convince Taliban to help them curb the issue with TTP as well.
15:06 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, who has been waging a war against Afghanistan, carrying out terror
15:11 campaigns, jihad against Pakistan.
15:14 The idea is to overthrow the Pakistani administration and bring a strong Sharia rule according to
15:20 what TTP thinks should be the Sharia rule.
15:24 At the same time, TTP has pledged its alliance very openly to Afghan Taliban, and Afghan
15:31 Taliban has done nothing to curb them.
15:35 So Pakistan, of course, was quite disappointed with that.
15:40 The ceasefire was called off in 2021.
15:43 And since then, TTP has been waging war, especially in areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, around the
15:48 Durand Line, because at the end of the day, TTP consists of a lot of Pashtuns and people
15:56 from the tribal region who do not consider themselves to be a part of Pakistan.
16:01 And as it is, Taliban and Afghanistan were not very happy in the past also, when Pakistan
16:08 tried to incorporate that area in their one-unit policy, which was to incorporate it in the
16:17 western part of Pakistan.
16:21 They were not happy about it because they don't consider themselves to be a part of
16:25 Pakistan.
16:26 So given this, TTP, since the rise of Taliban, has been waging its war on Pakistan.
16:35 And not only that, what has happened, two umbrella networks have emerged.
16:40 This is a new trend.
16:41 Like around the Durand Line, we are now seeing many splinter groups, a lot of small independent
16:48 splinter groups, which Pakistan claims are coming from Afghanistan, across the Durand
16:54 Line.
16:55 These groups have pledged their allegiance to either the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group or the
17:02 TTP.
17:03 One of the groups which has come to power on a great level is this group called JAMK,
17:10 that is Jabhat Ansar Al Mahadi Khurasan.
17:17 This is a faction of the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group.
17:23 Now Hafiz Gul Bahadur, what makes this group interesting is that in the past, Hafiz Gul
17:29 Bahadur among the tribals is viewed as a very strong commander because he fought in the
17:36 Afghan war.
17:38 He had ties with the Siraj-ud-Din Haqqani network.
17:41 He had ties with Al-Qaeda.
17:43 And the people from the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa area and the tribal area felt that he was
17:48 somebody that they could follow.
17:51 So when Taliban comes to power, Hafiz Gul Bahadur, this man comes up with his group.
18:00 Pakistan tried to make a deal with this man, hoping that they would come into some terms
18:06 to curb the terrorism from the TTP end because this man was the deputy emir of the…
18:13 Aparna…
18:14 Yes.
18:15 Aparna, may I please interject here a moment?
18:22 Who are funding these groups?
18:26 Where are they getting their arms from?
18:30 These are basically…
18:31 TTP, I take it, may be stealing them from Pakistani armies, armories.
18:49 Yes.
18:50 Anyway, please go ahead.
18:51 Just try and throw light on…
18:52 The reason I want to touch up on this Hafiz Gul Bahadur group is because the way it's
18:59 emerging now, it's a new group, the new faction, JMK, which is emerging, is actually
19:06 reaching prominence at a very short span.
19:09 And not only are these new people who are coming in, the TTP core commanders or the
19:15 TTP cadres that are actually coming across now, these are no longer the illiterate people
19:21 or the tribal people fighting from the mountains anymore.
19:24 It's no longer the attack and scamper policy.
19:27 Like, they're not carrying out a guerrilla style kind of warfare.
19:33 These people actually, just like TTP, BLA, the Baloch insurgents, they have this brigade
19:39 called the Majid Brigade, which is a straightforward suicide brigade.
19:44 The idea is to go create maximum damage, get their aims clear.
19:50 It's no longer hit and scamper.
19:52 Same thing is going on with the TTP people.
19:56 Not only are they recruiting individuals who are very well educated and tech savvy, to
20:02 be more precise, because now we are also seeing, like BLA, BLF, SRA, Sindhudesh Revolutionary
20:09 Army, we are seeing that even like these groups that are coming out of TTP are making claims
20:15 and attacks on social media.
20:17 They know how to use technology to gain traction, prominence, awareness, while they're also
20:23 making the claims openly known.
20:26 We wouldn't know about a group like JMK unless we knew who was the one claiming the attacks.
20:33 And now the attacks are being claimed soon after the attacks are happening.
20:38 So this particular group was a faction of the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group.
20:44 But unlike its parent group, it is actually more proactive on the social media.
20:50 It doesn't shy away from the claims.
20:53 So now we are seeing splinter groups coming into the picture, and they are definitely
20:58 more highly capable and efficient at carrying out their attacks and claiming their attacks.
21:03 So this is a new trend that has started with the splinter groups.
21:09 And we're looking at TTP and HDB, that is Hafiz Gul Bahadur group, as the two main networks
21:15 that people are joining.
21:16 If they're not joining these two, we're seeing a lot of them joining ISK Khurasan.
21:22 It has also been claimed that in order to curb the TTP threat that is coming into Pakistan,
21:30 Pakistan has invited the ISIS Khurasan, who is also a rival of Taliban, to come and stay
21:38 in the ISI guest houses.
21:40 There's a deal that has been signed, and this deal is the Davori Agreement that they came
21:46 up with, our main rafter of village from where one of the ISIS leaders belonged.
21:52 So according to this deal, both of them are killing two birds with one stone.
21:57 ISK wants to have extraction in Afghanistan and counter Taliban.
22:03 And Pakistan wants to take care of TTP.
22:06 Now tell me, Aparna, with all this happening, Pakistan still manages to pump in terrorists
22:20 in Jammu and Kashmir, maybe less than earlier in the valley.
22:25 But certainly in the slightly south, in that region, it's increased.
22:31 And even in the valley, the threat is still there.
22:36 The old targeted areas, the threat is still there.
22:41 And Mr. Rajnath Singh, our defence minister, has sent many tough messages that you better
22:53 behave or we can, we can enter your house and kill you.
23:03 Well, that was done only once on the land in 2016 by way of what we refer to as surgical
23:12 strikes and a very, very well coordinated air attack on Balakot by the Indian Air Force
23:21 was done in 2019.
23:23 But these are single, you know, we haven't done anything beyond that.
23:30 What do you see the effect on India as with all that is happening?
23:37 At the moment, with the way things are going on, Pakistan is already looking like a sinking
23:45 ship.
23:46 Its relations are definitely in a very bad state with Taliban and India and Taliban are
23:53 sort of warming up to one another.
23:56 In one front, at least there is a hope that we might be able to counter a certain amount
24:02 of threats with this kind of relation if we allow it so.
24:08 But in a more cautious way, given the Taliban themselves were insurgents who have now turned
24:14 into an administrative government.
24:16 So we have to tread carefully.
24:20 Maybe we can cultivate on that kind of a relationship and hope that we can counter
24:25 them.
24:26 And also, we need to wind up soon.
24:32 And as far as the offer by Mr. Rajnath Singh to Pakistan that for the first time, that
24:40 do you need any help from us?
24:41 How do you think that is being viewed?
24:44 I personally don't see that being viewed.
24:46 I think so it was more of a scathing remark to hit under the belt, given that the elections
24:52 are nearby.
24:53 And the way I see it, we are already carrying out Operation Sarva Shakti around the Pir
25:01 Panjal, south of the Kashmir area.
25:04 That is being done from the Indian side.
25:07 There are more COVID operations on the way.
25:09 I don't think it's going to be disclosed anytime soon to the public.
25:14 But as far as we are concerned, I think why interfere or disturb the enemy when it's making
25:21 its own mistakes?
25:23 Might as well sit and watch it take itself down.
25:27 Yes, yes, yes.
25:30 Anyway, Apna, I'd like to thank you for all that you explained about these groups.
25:42 And we'll keep our eye on these and meet again.
25:51 Thank you very much.
25:52 Thank you very much for having me.
25:54 [BLANK_AUDIO]
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