- 6 weeks ago
Rajiv Bhatia, former Indian Ambassador to Myanmar and Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Studies Programme, Gateway House, Mumbai speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on Myanmar’s post-election instability and regional implications | SAM Conversation
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00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor.
00:14It is our pleasure to welcome Mr. Rajiv Bhatia, former Ambassador of Myanmar and a distinguished
00:25fellow of Foreign Studies program at the Gateway House, Mumbai.
00:35Subject is recent instability in Myanmar even after elections.
00:44December 25 elections held in Myanmar are widely being seen as a sham, not free and fair.
00:55And followed by a lot of, well, about 6000 people are reported to have been killed at least.
01:05About 20 million people need humanitarian assistance.
01:12The junta has been, you know, conducting airstrikes even on the public.
01:20And there are about two resistance, three resistance groups at least, the National Unity Government,
01:29the People's Defence Force and the Arakan Army, which is reported to have taken over large
01:35tracts of territory in the Mongdor region, which is between Bangladesh and Myanmar's Rakhine State.
01:45The Indian Army carried out at least two attacks inside Myanmar against the United Liberation Front
01:58of Ahom Ulfa and the National NSCN, National Socialist Council of Nagaland groups.
02:13So, things don't seem to be going too smoothly there.
02:17I will request Mr. Bhatia to throw light as he's been, you know, watching.
02:28Not only has he been a former, is he a former Ambassador of Myanmar, but he's been watching,
02:33you know, what has been happening there.
02:36Over to you, Mr. Bhatia.
02:38Thank you very much, Colonel Bhat.
02:40Such a pleasure to be invited once again to this prestigious platform of South Asia Monitor,
02:49and particularly to have a discussion or a conversation with you.
02:55Thank you very much also for your crisp introduction of the topic.
03:00I think it's important to discuss the political security, economic and external situation of such an important neighbour to our East, Myanmar.
03:14Myanmar, as you know, is known as the gateway for India to Southeast Asia.
03:22It is a bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia.
03:26It's a country which has enjoyed extremely close relations with India over the decades and centuries.
03:35And therefore, any opportunity where we can honestly and frankly discuss what is going on in Myanmar
03:45and how it is impacting on India is of interest to both of us, but I hope also to our audience as well.
03:53Now, shifting to the heart of the topic which you spelt out as the instability in Myanmar despite the elections,
04:06I would like to make a couple of points right in the beginning.
04:11Myanmar has been quite used to be governed under military rule for a long time.
04:21That doesn't mean that people accept military rule as such.
04:26But I'm just stating a basic fact that since its independence in 1949, 48, sorry,
04:34much of the time military has been in power.
04:38And there have been only short periods when democracy or limited democracy has been in operation.
04:45Now, at this time, we can see the last military coup took place in 2021.
04:53And since then, military has been directly in power.
04:56This time, the coup triggered serious political discontent, which eventually turned into very violent conflict between the resistance and the military.
05:11And only when a kind of stalemate began to develop that the military decided to go on for this exercise of elections.
05:22Now, you're quite right in saying that the critics and the resistance view this as a sham election.
05:29On the other hand, obviously, the narrative presented by the military government is that it was an election which has been organized under very adverse circumstances.
05:40And we have been very successful.
05:42And they have been projecting two or three basic facts.
05:46One, that it was done in three phases.
05:49It was not done in one go because of the political and logistical and security issues.
05:54It was the polling was done on 28 December, 11 January and then 25 January.
06:01They also point out that this was done in terms of three different number of townships.
06:10First phase 102, second phase 100 and third phase 61.
06:17I think it is generally claimed that roughly 50% to 65% of the country is under military's control.
06:29And by whatever figure you take, roughly 50% or 33% is under the opposition control.
06:37So you can see that elections have not covered all the areas, but they have covered probably the majority part of the result.
06:47The result was exactly along the expected lines.
06:5172% of the seats in the parliament have been won by a USDP, which is called the King's Party or the party established or floated by the military.
07:04So in other words, the future rulers are going to be people having allegiance directly or indirectly to the military.
07:14So this is where we are. Will there be stability or instability?
07:18We will naturally discuss it in detail, but I just wanted to set out the full political context of our discussion now.
07:26Over to you.
07:28Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Bhatia.
07:31You know, the other disturbing aspects are, or you can say developments, are that ever since the disturbances in Bangladesh, there is no doubt about a very strong American presence.
07:57Not only in Bangladesh, but in Myanmar also. In Bangladesh, all I can throw light on is that there was at least one American officer, United States Army officer, who was reported killed in a Dhaka hotel.
08:19And there are unconfirmed reports of about 17 Americans being killed in Dhaka, but what I am trying to say is that there is, this American presence is not only in Bangladesh, it is in Myanmar also now.
08:39So, this, you see, is a bit disturbing for India, at least. Whatever be the circumstances, we have been having relations with the military hunter until things were okay.
08:57We try, we try to have, we try to have good relations even with the elected government there, Suki's government there.
09:04But now, with water, you know, there are events which occurred in Manipur, which, you know, have a, have an effect of the Kuki population.
09:21Now, Kuki's are, they originate from Myanmar. The, the Maite is, the Maite Kingdom, they were the last to, you know, to, to be conquered by the British.
09:39And it's after that, that, and the Maite Kingdom was pretty large. It was not as big as just Manipur is today. It stretched right up to even Kachar.
09:51I think a lot of, I think a lot of, there was a lot of, there was a lot of movement of Maite's in, cookies inside Manipur by the British.
10:04Then you, you, you, you heard of, you know, all the disturbances that have, you know, occurred there.
10:11And now the latest is that there's a, there's a state of, you know, demand for cookie land also.
10:18Now, in such things, you know, wonders, you know, I'm sure this, all this couldn't be happening without, with just, you know, without some, call it the deep state of America.
10:39Your, your, your comments on this, Mr. Bhatia.
10:46Thank you very much, but you probably are better informed about some of the top, some of the issues that you have raised.
10:57But let me first connect to what I was trying to put out and I'll come to, come to your question as well.
11:05And the issue is as to how the elections in Myanmar have been perceived by the external players.
11:13And I think that is where we can bring in the US and possibly Bangladesh situation as well.
11:20So in terms of, um, uh, elections, I think it's important to note, uh, the West, uh, has been a big advocate of democracy in Myanmar for a long time.
11:32But in the last four or five years, I noticed that the Western countries, that is the EU and the US have, uh, reduced their interest in Myanmar.
11:44This is a cause of great, uh, pain and disappointment to the democracy activists in Myanmar.
11:51But this is a plain fact, particularly in the last one year, uh, America's assistance also to various, um, uh, institutions, including probably the national unity government, uh, has been reduced.
12:07Uh, and so obviously the pinch is being felt.
12:10And as far as Europe is concerned, they have been so deeply involved in their own challenges and problems, mainly Ukraine and the Russian threat that they are not able to take the kind of interest.
12:22They took in Myanmar affairs earlier.
12:25So in short, the US and, uh, uh, EU are less interested, but very clear that, uh, these elections are largely, uh, you know, uh, lacking credibility and therefore they need not be appreciated or supported.
12:42On the other hand, there is a group of countries which have, uh, basically welcomed the elections.
12:49And that obviously group includes Russia, China, Belarus, and some of the Indochina countries, you know, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, at the individual national level, they have, uh, basically supported the elections.
13:04Yet on the other hand, ASEAN, uh, has been very clear that, uh, these elections are not important.
13:12They have not, uh, uh, endorsed or welcomed them.
13:16And they keep saying that our policy is centering around what they call the five point consensus.
13:22In that consensus, you remember ASEAN had advised Myanmar after the coup to first, uh, uh, stop, uh, violence.
13:32And, uh, second is start national dialogue among the stakeholders.
13:37Since that did not happen.
13:38And they simply directly jumped to the election.
13:41ASEAN is not happy.
13:43And in that light, very quickly in two points, I think we should also mention that India has taken, uh, not a very clear cut position on the election.
13:54So on the one hand, India deals with the military government without any difficulty.
13:59But on the other hand, India has not really issued, uh, any strong or clear statement after prime minister Modi's, uh, statement back at the BIMSTEC summit in, uh, Bangkok that India favors, uh, free, fair and credible elections, uh, in Myanmar.
14:18It has not said whether or not they were free, fair and credible after they were over.
14:24Then a press report made a big song and dance about, uh, the presence of one of your, uh, senior colleagues, uh, left in general Arun Sahani, retired army officer who was present at, uh, the time of the elections.
14:39And, uh, he was projected as the observer from India, but New Delhi made it clear that he did not have any official status.
14:48So let us say India's position remains somewhat, uh, uh, unclear, uh, India's policy is clear.
14:56We, uh, work with the military government, but we favor, uh, democracy in, uh, Myanmar.
15:02And we are willing to extend moral diplomatic and political support for that cause.
15:07So in that light, now coming back once again to the US, uh, I have also been, uh, researching and reading a lot of reports about, uh, uh, American interest in Myanmar.
15:21Uh, reports say they are very interested in what is going on in the Rakhine state.
15:26They also indicate they are very interested in what's going on in Kachin state, particularly from the viewpoint of critical minerals.
15:34And thirdly, they certainly have been highlighting that given, uh, their, uh, deep activities in Bangladesh.
15:41Uh, they wanted at one stage even to open a humanitarian corridor, uh, from, uh, Bangladesh Chittagong all the way to the Rakhine state.
15:51It never happened.
15:52And now of course, in Bangladesh, the situation has changed completely.
15:56A new government is about to take over and we will have to re-examine, revisit that topic.
16:02So my final point here is that, uh, because the international community is divided, it is fragmented on Myanmar.
16:13It is unable to take any effective unified position.
16:17And on the other hand, the political elite and the political constituencies in Myanmar are also divided and fragmented.
16:27And as a result, a kind of a stalemate continues there as well.
16:32So given the combination of these two factors, we are not very optimistic that any big, big or positive changes might take place in Myanmar in the near future.
16:44Um, thank you very much, uh, Mr. Bhatia, you brought out, uh, you clarified, uh, also, um, a lot of, uh, issues.
16:55Um, but, uh, uh, frankly, one, uh, as a person who's, uh, you know, who was there in Manipur for three years, um, and, uh, I, I, I had the opportunity of, uh, raising, uh, defense ministries, uh, cell of public relations, um, there.
17:16And, uh, in, uh, in, uh, in those, uh, three years, one had the, uh, you know, opportunity, opportunity of visiting the, uh, the, the Manipur Myanmar border quite often, and including going to, uh, uh, you know, Moray.
17:32Moray, Moray, the, uh, one has seen, you know, the, the, the proximity, the, the, the, the, the cultural connections that we've had.
17:44And it's, it, it, at times seems a pity that, uh, you know, how things are, uh, uh, uh, uh, you know, how things are turning out to be there.
17:57Way back, if you recall, Mr. George Fernandez, even when the, in the time when he was a defense minister, he had, um, uh, he had, um, you know, the democracy movements, um, uh, members staying in his house.
18:12He had given them, um, I mean, we, we've, we've been involved in, uh, in, uh, let's say that a lot of us are well-wishers as far as Myanmar is concerned.
18:26And we, we, it's a pity to see things, uh, and we, we've supported the junta.
18:31Uh, I know that in the, in the past, uh, we've even given them, uh, um, um, um, um, this thing, weapons, weapons and hardware.
18:44And, uh, uh, they, they, they were, uh, they're help in, uh, or support in our chasing the northeast insurgent groups, insurgent-turned-terrorist groups of the Nagas, the Assamese, the Ulfa and the Maite groups.
19:04Their, their, their, their support was, was not, uh, solid.
19:07It was, in fact, a chance of support.
19:10The, the moment, uh, you know, we, we entered, uh, they'd, uh, you know, inform them and, and these chats would scatter.
19:20Um, it's only in the, in the, uh, in, in 25 last year, there were two successful attacks by Indian Army inside, uh, Myanmar on these, uh,
19:33uh, uh, group of Ulfa and NSEN.
19:37But, uh, uh, uh, how do you think we, we, you know, in India can be of, uh, of some, uh, some, you know, meaningful, substantial, uh, support assistance at this stage?
19:56Thank you very much.
19:57I think, uh, what you say is, uh, is enlightening.
20:02And, of course, I fully respect, uh, your experience of having served the Indian Army at the border.
20:10You have deep knowledge, uh, and we all need to, uh, learn from it.
20:16Uh, let's talk a little bit more about India-Myanmar relations.
20:22Uh, uh, and, uh, this certainly has to start from the border region.
20:26Uh, there is no question that the ethnic affinities, uh, the geographical contiguity, the historical legacy, and the day-to-day, uh, connections that exist between the peoples on both sides of the border are very, very important.
20:44Uh, fundamentally from the viewpoint of the Indian government, all that we want is that the, uh, movement of people, of goods, of, uh, drugs and medicines, uh, uh, and, uh, any other item, any other, uh, uh, item should be properly, uh, you know, regulated.
21:08That is, the movement should be for positive, uh, purposes, but not for negative purposes, not for smuggling, uh, not for contraband items, not for terrorists moving up and down, not for encouraging international crime, et cetera.
21:26And so there is, there is, you know, this, this very serious challenge of how to encourage the good flow and discourage and stop the bad flow.
21:38Now in this, uh, this was a difficult proposition, even when, uh, before the coup, when things were normal.
21:46Now they are far from normal because, uh, in the military or armed tussle between the military, uh, the Myanmar military on one side and the ethnic resistance on the other side, military has lost control over much of the India Myanmar border on the Myanmar side.
22:07Yeah.
22:08So now you have a new, uh, player, but it is not one player.
22:13There are multiple players.
22:14So you have, uh, KIA, you have Chin, uh, you have the, uh, other, uh, private, uh, voluntary forces, and then you have the Arakan army.
22:25So at least half a dozen main players on the Myanmar side.
22:30So the challenge for India is how to, uh, open and conduct discussions with them.
22:36Find out, uh, what, uh, they need and how much and what we possibly can give them.
22:43And our limitations are very, very clear.
22:46And at the same time, we have to deal with them in such a manner that state to state government to government relations between Delhi and Nepito are not adversely affected.
22:57And that also is very important because we know, and I'm bringing in the larger strategic and geopolitical factor here.
23:06Since the coup, China's impact and influence in Myanmar has grown.
23:12This is a matter of great concern to India.
23:15They are supporting the, they are strongly supporting the junta.
23:20Exactly.
23:21Therefore, I think it's very important for India to balance the practical needs of the border with the larger strategic need for us to maintain good, uh, positive relations with the military government.
23:35That is the reason why India adopts this twofold Burma policy or Myanmar policy, uh, of trying to, uh, deal with the government of the day and yet, uh, keep projecting that at the end of the day, we want democracy in Myanmar.
23:55But it is the responsibility of the people of Myanmar to bring democracy.
24:00It is not India's job to export democracy to Myanmar.
24:05So this is where we are.
24:06I think it's a, it's a difficult, uh, track to travel, but this is the only track available to India.
24:14Yeah.
24:15No, you put it, I think you put it very, very succinctly, uh, Mr. Bhatia.
24:20And, uh, that is, that, that, uh, it's, it's, it's not easy for us.
24:28And we, we have tried to be proper, uh, in the past, we are still, and being proper now, it's, it's not so easy.
24:37With, you know, uh, because, uh, well, uh, I'll say that if, uh, um, if we were able to attack these two, enter Myanmar and attack these two groups, which, uh, which are being, you know, Pakistan is, is trying, they, they had Pakistan support earlier in, during the days of, uh, BNP being in power in Bangladesh.
25:05From that time onwards.
25:07And, uh, uh, Mr. Uh, um, uh, this, uh, uh, uh, um, um, uh, failed Marshall, uh, Munir has, has, has been trying to, uh, uh, his best, because he can't, he can't do much.
25:17Uh, against, uh, you know, Indian army has been, he's been trying to, uh, uh, re, uh, renew those, uh, you know, his connections and Pakistan army's connections with these groups to, to try and, um, um, um, uh,
25:34So, we've been able to do that, but as you say, it's something we would like to have democracy there.
25:50And you are very right, it has to happen with the people there also.
25:55The Myanmar is a public. Again, it's not easy for them. They're being pulled apart. 50% of the state, I think, is under the...
26:15Yeah, absolutely. Just let me bring in two more points to bring or inject some optimism here.
26:22One is that in comparison to the period 21 to say about 23, 24, when the violence was quite heavy and widespread in Myanmar,
26:37my impression is that the level of violence is low now in the last few months.
26:43It has not ended. You spoke about airstrikes. Sometimes they take place even now.
26:48But the violence level is low in Myanmar, which means that there is a stalemate on the field.
26:54And now that the elections have taken place and new rulers, even though they may be controlled by the military, will be in operation.
27:02They might create a new atmosphere to begin some kind of discussions with the opposition and they might succeed to some extent.
27:12So this is a possibility we should keep in view. And the other is the optimism coming from the change in Bangladesh.
27:19Imagine, had the elections led to Jamaat's outright victory, you know, the whole area would have become very difficult for others to manage.
27:33Now that you have a moderate centre-right government of Prime Minister to be Tariq Rahman coming into the picture.
27:42It is possible that Bangladesh would also try to follow a pragmatic policy towards Myanmar, as indeed, hopefully towards India.
27:52So in that sense, you know, India and Bangladesh working together and this new so-called democratic government emerging in Nepito,
28:03it just might bring a little bit more stability than we have experienced so far.
28:09This is the projection I would like to put to you and I hope you would perhaps go along with it.
28:16No, no, certainly. I think it's some light at the end of the tunnel, this development of late Khalid Azia's son taking over.
28:28Although he was, the BNP had given us enough trouble when it was in power earlier.
28:35But today things are different. After all the mess that has been presided upon by Mr. Yunus, one can only hope that things are better there.
28:49And yes, what you have said is an array of hope that India should try and try its best to, you know, catalyze in whichever way it can.
29:08We have never stepped on toes of our neighbors, but...
29:17You are absolutely right. I think we have always thought first of the people of Myanmar and we should find every avenue to remain connected with them,
29:29whether it is through just tourism or through think tanks and universities or through business and other means.
29:39Because people to people connect is very, very important. I wanted to share with you that when I was serving as an ambassador, as the ambassador of India in Myanmar, I found that, you know, in a country which is largely Buddhist, there was a great aspiration for many, many people to come and visit India and see all the Buddhist sites which are world famous. So there is that connection.
30:06No doubt. No doubt. No doubt. No doubt. No doubt. That's always been there. After all, India is the home of Buddhism. Buddhism is here that it began. Even in the Northeast, you cannot...
30:25It's very palpable to see the kind of, you know, the kind of attraction that Buddhist, old Buddhist places have for people in the region of other states as well as foreigners.
30:46And my last point, if you allow me is this, you know, by way of a constructive suggestion, India's Myanmar policy affects India's Northeast region directly.
31:00Certainly. Certainly.
31:01And this is where we need to hold as many outreach events as possible in order to project the rationale of India's Myanmar policy. I'm afraid it is not adequately understood there by our own people. If we can do something actively, this will be a good investment.
31:21You have, you are very right there. You are very right there, Mr. Bhatia. And this is a suggestion which must be worked upon. Those of us who write, we will certainly be trying to put this across, right? Or whenever we get an opportunity to speak about.
31:45Amas, thank you for a lot of, you know, very important point which you brought out today. And we must, of course, keep our fingers on the pulse of what is happening there and look forward for discussion sometime in the future again. Thank you very much, Mr. Bhatia.
32:10I thank you, Mr. Bhatia. I thank you, Kanal Bhat, for sharing your knowledge and, of course, your curiosity about various aspects. And we have had a very good conversation. I thank Sam and you once again. Have a good day.
32:27All the best.
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