00:07Greetings everyone and welcome to the special podcast conducted by South Asia Monitor. Today,
00:13we are pleased to welcome Commodore C. Udayb Bhaskar, Director of Society for Policy Studies
00:18and a leading voice on Strategic and Maritime Affairs. A former officer of the Indian Navy,
00:23he retired in 2007 after nearly 37 years of distinguished service and has a rare distinction
00:30of having headed three major think tanks including National Maritime Foundation and
00:35Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis. Today, sir has joined us to discuss on the topic
00:41sinking of the Iranian ship in the Indian Ocean and the broader strategic as well as geopolitical
00:46implications. Thank you for joining us today, sir. Shall we begin? Yeah, please. Thank you for
00:53inviting me. To begin with, sir, could you briefly explain what happened in the incident involving
00:59Iranian ship Dina and what circumstances led to it? The sinking of the Iranian naval ship
01:06IRIS Dina just off the coast of Sri Lanka on March 5th was no doubt a tragic incident, but
01:17it was also a reality of war, meaning that the United States and Iran are currently at war. And under
01:27such
01:27circumstances, any naval ship, any naval platform of the adversary is considered to be a legitimate
01:36target. Now, this is an unfortunate reality of war. And therefore, when the Iranian ship left Vishakhapatnam,
01:45Vishakhapatnam, the Indian port, which is the headquarters of the Eastern Naval Command of India,
01:52where India had just conducted a very major international fleet review, once the ship had crossed India's
01:58territorial waters, which is 12 nautical miles, and was proceeding towards Iran, or any other task that
02:06the Iranian authorities may have given it. Technically, it was an international water outside of Indian
02:12jurisdiction. And therefore, India had no responsibility for the safety of the ship. So, this was the
02:20background against which the United States had identified this as a target. And yes, the attack took place in
02:30waters that are proximate to India. Technically, in Sri Lanka's exclusive economic zone. As you know,
02:38for any coastal state, the territorial waters extend up to 12 nautical miles. And the host country or that
02:47particular coastal state's jurisdiction can be applied in territorial waters. Once you cross that, for 200
02:54nautical miles, you have what is called as the exclusive economic zone. There, the coastal state has got
03:02certain rights in terms of exploiting that area for economic and related activities. Yet, it is in
03:11international waters. So, to that extent, the action of the United States was quote-unquote legitimate. But
03:18there are many other strands that could be examined, which is why did the United States choose to carry
03:27out this attack just 40 nautical miles away from Sri Lanka in its own exclusive economic zone? Could it have
03:37waited and carried out this attack later? Or were there any compelling reasons that the United States had
03:44intelligence that this Iranian ship would pose a threat to its own assets in the Indian Ocean? That is
03:50a question mark. We don't know. But this is the brief background in which or under which the IRIS DINA
03:59was sunk
04:00by a United States nuclear-powered submarine. So, for professionals, this may be of interest that this is
04:07the first time that the United States has carried out an attack from a submarine after World War II.
04:14to sink an enemy warship. Are we? Yes, sir. Thank you for the context, sir. Given the circumstances
04:22that you mentioned in the Indian Ocean region, what kind of strategic challenges could this create for
04:30India since the incident happened so close to Sri Lanka and within the Indian Ocean region, sir?
04:38See, there are two issues here. I'd like to unpack them. First, to say that the fact that the U
04:43.S.-Iran war
04:44has now come into the maritime domain, into the Indian Ocean, into waters that are proximate to India,
04:51the Arabian Sea, and towards the southern Indian Ocean, is cause for concern. Because till the sinking of the
05:00Iranian ship, the U.S.-Iran war, which started on February 28th, was confined to West Asia.
05:06It was between the U.S. and Iran. Iran responded. Some of the allies of the United States in the
05:12region,
05:12Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, were all attacked by Iranian missiles. They were attacking the U.S. bases.
05:19When this particular attack took place, what has happened is that the spectrum of war has expanded,
05:25both geographically, it's come out of West Asia, and also the domain.
05:31Because till the sinking of the Iranian ship, this was largely an exercise of air power by the United
05:38States. And the Iranian response was missiles. So it was operating in the vertical of air power and
05:45missiles. With the sinking of the Iranian ship, we have changed or extended, not changed, extended both
05:52the domain, air power now plus maritime. And we have expanded the geography. It is West Asia leading
06:00into the Indian Ocean. And this is the critical part, that the implication of this is that both for
06:07India and for the region, when any war comes closer to your own shores, it creates turbulence.
06:15Instability. And that is not desirable. And how is this manifest? This is manifest now in the kind
06:21of impact it has on merchant trade. After all, 90 percent plus of global trade is carried out by
06:28merchant ships and on the oceans of the world through the sea lines of communication. Iran and its
06:35geography are very critical for global energy supplies because of the Straits of Hormuz.
06:39All the major oil producing countries in the region in West Asia use that particular Strait of Hormuz
06:47for oil to be exported from West Asia through the Arabian Sea, around Sri Lanka, through the Malacca
06:54Strait towards China, Japan, Korea, ASEAN, all the major oil importers. India, by the way, is also a
07:01very major oil importer in South Asia. More than 80 percent of India's energy flows in from this
07:10direction from West Asia, Hormuz towards India. So therefore, if there is any turbulence in the
07:16maritime domain, it affects India's economic security, energy security and can have other implications.
07:23So it is going to be corrosive. It's going to be negative. And the related issue is the United
07:30States had brought a nuclear powered submarine very close to Indian waters. Now, this has its own
07:37implications. Was this done in consultation? Was it done as a surprise? So these are questions that
07:46need to be addressed in an objective way. Harvi? Rightly said. Sir, since you pointed out that
07:53the war has now escalated more like including the maritime domain, do you think the Indian Ocean could
08:00become the second front in this larger conflict between Iran and USA? And since you also talked
08:06about the weapon used after the Second World War, do we see any Third World War coming now in this
08:14situation?
08:17You know, the short answer to your question about the Indian Ocean becoming an extended arena for the
08:26US-Iran conflict is, yes, the probability is very high. Because if the war continues, we are not quite
08:36sure whether this war will end in week two. We have just entered the second week.
08:42Or will it finish in one month? Or will it further progress into one year? All these are uncertain at
08:49this point in time, because it will depend on Iran's response, the proxies of Iran, and the kind of
08:56resilience that Iran is able to demonstrate or display in the face of the punitive attacks that
09:05U.S. and Israel are carrying out. After all, the U.S. Secretary of War, Mr. Peter Higgs said,
09:11had said that they are going to reign the kind of destruction that Tehran would perhaps get totally
09:18obliterated. I mean, he made some very strong statements which are cause for concern. Now, against this
09:25backdrop, it is quite likely that both adversaries, that is the U.S. plus Israel and Iran will be
09:34looking at the maritime domain to further their tactical objectives. So that would cause a problem
09:41as I see it. But as I said, these are all uncertain at this point in time.
09:48Slightly said, yes, sir. Looking at the broader picture, sir, how do you think the countries in
09:54the region, in the Indian Ocean, like the Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, all the Maldives would see this, would
10:01view this situation in the Indian Ocean in a larger perspective, sir? Short answer again, with great
10:09concern. Because all the smaller states, whether it's Sri Lanka, which currently is in a very difficult
10:15situation, because it has also provided shelter to another Iranian naval ship. And this has its own
10:23implications in terms of the bilateral relationship with the United States and how the U.S. is going to
10:30into the Sri Lankan action. So like Sri Lanka, all the smaller countries, whether it's Bangladesh,
10:36or Pakistan, or Maldives, any of them who are in the South Asian region, will be impacted by the
10:42fallout of this war. As we just discussed, there is an economic implication, trade implication,
10:48energy implication. And in turn, all of this can accelerate or add to domestic inflation.
10:54When there is inflation, the most vulnerable cross section of any country, the poorest people,
11:00as it were, will be the most affected. Many of them are living on very, very low wages,
11:06and those can get adversely impacted. We in India are aware that in the last week itself, the Indian
11:13rupee has weakened in relation to the U.S. dollar. And it is now hovering around 90. Now, before the
11:20war,
11:21we were talking about the 80s. So you can see that when the rupee weakens, and this is true of
11:28all South
11:28Asian countries, the impact will be on the average citizen and that to the most vulnerable citizenship
11:35or citizens or demography in any country, whether it's India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, you name it,
11:42the most socially, socioeconomically, shall we say, deprived, would have the greatest impact. And
11:51therefore, human security gets degraded. So to summarize it, I would say that the fallout of this
11:56war is going to be on a very severe impact on the quality or the kind of human security that
12:01we see
12:01in the region. Army? Rightly said, sir. Sir, since you pointed out towards the energy security as well
12:09as the potential economic implications, what in your opinion could India do along with its neighbor in
12:16the Indian Ocean region to make sure that the region does not destabilize by the larger regional conflicts
12:24that occur in the extended neighborhood? Well, I think one possibility, and I say this very tentatively,
12:33is that India is in a very, I would say, special position, meaning that India is one country that has
12:41got
12:41fairly stable, comfortable relations with all the principal players or principal, not players,
12:49players is a wrong word for war, but the principal actors in this war, which is the United States,
12:53Israel, Iran, in the first instance, and all the other regional countries. After all, Prime Minister Modi
12:59had recently visited Israel, and he also had reached out to Saudi Arabia and other countries after the war.
13:06And with Iran, we may not have had any significant high-level contact. But yes, India does have a
13:13relationship with Iran, which is very old and very, I would say, deep. So to that extent, I think India
13:20could perhaps take some kind of regional, Sherpa kind of initiative to coordinate. You know, I would
13:26hesitate to use the word leadership in these very troubled times, because the United Nations Security
13:31Council itself has become ineffective to provide any kind of platform for suggesting peace and
13:39negotiations. So therefore, I think one has to be conscious of India's limitations. But definitely,
13:45I think, to make some attempt to coordinate the effort of regional countries and convey the concerns
13:52that if this war is prolonged, the kind of destabilizing effect it would have on the region,
13:58particularly in relation to human security, and why some kind of attempt could be made to either
14:05confine the war to the West Asian region. And I mean, along with that, Prime Minister Modi has
14:13always said that this is not a time for war. You remember he said that when Ukraine, when he visited
14:16the Ukraine theater. Similarly, now that India should try and put its shoulder to the wheel and see
14:22whether or not we can encourage both parties to sit down and negotiate, though it's very unlikely.
14:28Because let's not forget that the United States and Iran were very close to a negotiated settlement
14:34before the war started, which was being Sherpa role was being played by Qatar. And all the reports that
14:42have come out in the last few days seem to suggest that it was almost the last page of that
14:46negotiated
14:47settlement, when the United States, for reasons best known to Mr. Trump, the President, and his close
14:53advisors and Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu, they decided to, frankly, walk away from the negotiations and
15:00start the war. So, against such a background, I think India's attempt, even if it fails, I would say it's
15:07worth
15:07trying. Because if India is the voice that has stood up for the Global South, or India has tried to
15:16suggest that it can play a role in ensuring peace and security in the Indian Ocean region. After all,
15:22remember, it was Prime Minister Modi who coined the phrase SAGAR in 2015. SAGAR stands for security
15:28and growth for all in the region in the Indian Ocean. Then, Prime Minister Modi, more recently,
15:35expanded the scope of SAGAR to Maha SAGAR. So, it's a very ambitious vision. So, against that backdrop,
15:42India should articulate and coordinate the efforts of South Asian nations to keep the maritime domain of
15:52theatre relatively stable and insulated from what is happening on the land. And I repeat,
15:58this is not going to be easy because Mr. Donald Trump, the US President, is frankly marching to his
16:03own drum. So, we are not quite sure whether he would respond positively to such an initiative. Are we?
16:12Rightly said, sir. Moving forward to the final question. Since you talked about the United
16:17Nations and its role. So, what, in your opinion, could the United Nations do or the larger international
16:25community do to make sure that the Indian Ocean remains stable and not a zone of conflict? Since
16:32it's also a major route for the energy supplies across the globe as well as the shipping trade route
16:40for the countries across the world, sir? You know, I see a very valuable, I'm saying I see a very
16:48valuable
16:48goal for the United States. Everyone is of the view that the United Nations has become ineffective. I agree
16:53with that. It has not been able to contribute to managing global conflict. We have seen the case
17:00of Russia-Ukraine, the UN, the Security Council has been relatively ineffective. Similarly, in the case of
17:08the United States-Israel versus Iran, you can see that the UN, whatever the Secretary-General has said,
17:17has heard. But notwithstanding that, this is my personal view, the United Nations is a very,
17:22very important global platform. It's the only platform we have. That is the only forum where
17:29these citizens, and not citizens, the nations of the world who are represented there, can articulate
17:34their concerns and their vision. So, going back to 1945, while everyone has said that the concept of
17:40sovereignty, which was enshrined in 1945 at the time of the setting up of the UN, is now in tatters,
17:45I am of the view that India should go back there, find like-minded countries, and let the voice be
17:51heard. Let the global concern be expressed in a collective manner. That is not happening in a
17:58concerted way. Individual states have expressed statements. Some have condemned the US action,
18:03like Russia, like China. The European states have been slightly ambivalent, but to his credit,
18:08the Spanish Prime Minister has made a very, very, I would say, definitive statement. So, like that,
18:14I think, personally, that the UN should be used as a forum to articulate the concerns of the global
18:23community. And along with that, I think the global citizens, wherever they are, in whichever manner,
18:30should also raise their voice. And I always say that the younger demography, you know, people like you,
18:36the younger generation, who have a greater stake in peace and stability in the world in the decades
18:42ahead, should also make their voices heard. And today's technology makes it possible. So I think
18:48we should not be despondent that the United States is now flouting every international norm and law that
18:55we know. After all, even the attack on Iran has been done without any sanction or any kind of
19:03legitimacy. It is just the US concern that Iran should not acquire nuclear weapons. Now,
19:08there is an irony over there. Iran has repeatedly said that its ideology, this goes back to Ayatollah
19:14Khomeini, the senior Ayatollah before Ayatollah Khomeini, who's just been killed, that Iranian understanding
19:21of theology, the Shia theology, and the way it translates into state policy. They repeatedly said
19:29that we believe that we should not acquire weapons of mass destruction, because that goes against our
19:34faith. It goes against our belief. But we want to acquire the technological competence for whatever
19:40civilian, etc. And the enrichment program was rationalized in that manner. The IAEA, the global nuclear
19:46watchdog said that Iran is nowhere near, not yet near the nuclear weapon. And America was not able to
19:54accept or was not comfortable with this kind of an interpretation of the Iranian program. And they
20:01decided to, by the sanctions, President Trump gutted the Obama settlement with Iran. We know all that.
20:09That's part of the history. But the irony is Iran says that we don't want to acquire nuclear weapons.
20:16Whereas Israel has nuclear weapons. Israel's nuclear weapons are covert. Israel has acquired nuclear
20:23weapons considered to be a great nuclear weapon capable state. The whole world knows it. The region knows it.
20:28But yet in the template that the United States has now set for itself and the region,
20:34a nuclear-capable Israel is acceptable. But an Iran that wants to enrich uranium and demonstrate its own
20:41technological competence is being attacked. So these are the kind of issues that I think the global
20:47community should articulate. We are not saying that everybody will be on the same page. But at least voices
20:53should be heard. I think at this point, silence or despondency would be a desirable option. Are we?
21:02Rightly, Saita. That was really informative. Thank you for your time. Thank you for joining us for your
21:07and for your invaluable insights. This was really an enlightening and thought-provoking session for me,
21:13sir. And I hope our audience has the same opinion too. Thank you for joining us today, sir.
21:19Thank you. Thank you for inviting.
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