This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 28/05/2025. For meteorologists summer starts on 1st June, but that doesn’t mean the weather will suddenly change, it’s looking pretty changeable throughout the next week or so but some areas will have some warmth at the end of this week. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Deakin.
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00:00Hello. A little bit of warmth, a fair bit of rain, and a sprinkling of uncertainty.
00:06Well, if it isn't a classic Met Office 10-day trend, and this one will take us through the first full week of meteorological summer.
00:14Meteorological spring, the months of March, April and May, has been remarkable.
00:18Incredibly dry, pretty warm, and the sunniest on record.
00:22And the reason for that was the position of the jet stream.
00:25Generally, it's been way up to the north, but it's shifted now. It has sunk back further south, and as a result, the weather's changed.
00:32It's been pushing low-pressure systems our way. This one brought the rain through the course of the weekend.
00:36And eyes focused on this one now as it heads towards us for Thursday.
00:41Now, it is kind of sitting in the middle of the jet stream here, so that's just pushing it along.
00:45If it was a little further north, it would intensify a bit more and perhaps bring some livelier winds.
00:50But it wouldn't take much to shift that, and that is where the uncertainty lies.
00:55Certainly in the short term, more uncertainty than usual.
00:58Just how the low develops and whether another low actually follows on behind.
01:02Now, this is the Met Office model, and the jet just pushes that low pretty much out of the way by the time we get to Friday morning.
01:08And a little ridge of high pressure builds in behind, bringing a few showers to Scotland,
01:12but generally turning things drier here during Friday.
01:16If we take a look at the European model for the same time, first thing on Friday morning,
01:20well, the low has cleared away, but it's actually developed another low in here,
01:24and that's keeping things pretty wet across Scotland.
01:26The rain is slower to clear as a result, and the ridge of high pressure is further behind.
01:31Now, as I say, quite a bit of uncertainty in the short term, and that is fairly unusual.
01:37In fact, it's one of those slightly counterintuitive situations
01:40where we have more confidence in the forecast for the weekend than in the shorter term,
01:44and that's what this graph is showing here.
01:46It's like a confidence-o-meter, if you like.
01:48The average line is this one here going from 1% or 100%,
01:52and it tends to drift and dip down as you get further ahead in time.
01:59And the actual hash line, well, that's the confidence in the current forecast,
02:02and anything red is below the average, green is above the average.
02:06You can see here that in the short term, the next 36 hours,
02:09the confidence in the forecast is below average, and it actually goes up and is green and above average into the weekend.
02:16So we have, as I say, more confidence in the forecast for the weekend, perhaps, than we do in the shorter term.
02:22What is going to happen at the weekends?
02:24Well, that jet stream remains reasonably active.
02:27It's not, as you may have read in the press, a Caribbean jet stream.
02:31It is coming up from the Atlantic, but it is also allowing the isobars to draw up the air from the southwest.
02:38So these are the winds at the surface, southwesterly winds,
02:42and we may well tap into some real warmth from Iberia as we head into Friday and Saturday.
02:49So temperatures across the south, where it warms up on Friday, could get to 24, 25, maybe even 26 degrees Celsius.
02:56And by the time we get to Saturday, well, that warmth extending further north across more parts of central and eastern England.
03:04So we'll see temperatures more widely over 20 degrees and into the mid-20s across parts of eastern England.
03:10So it is warming up for some, but notice with the winds coming in from the west or the southwest,
03:15these western areas aren't going to be as warm.
03:18It'll still feel quite warm and humid, though, pretty much everywhere as we head towards the end of this week.
03:23But temperatures, as I say, quite a contrast.
03:25It is going to warm up, but only for some.
03:28Another way of looking at that is comparing the temperatures with the average for the middle of May.
03:34You can see above average across east angle in the southeast on Friday, closer to average further north and further west.
03:40And it's a similar pattern on Saturday, but notice those higher than average temperatures becoming more widespread over the Midlands and eastern England for Saturday.
03:47So if we see some sunshine on Saturday, it really will feel quite warm in these eastern areas.
03:52But will we see the sunshine?
03:54Well, certainly not further west, where temperatures will be closer to average.
03:56We are expecting more cloud and more rain from another area of low pressure that'll be heading in.
04:02This initial warm front bringing some showery rain.
04:04Then this weather front swings through.
04:06And then we see another potential area of low pressure developing, bringing showery rain across the country during Sunday.
04:12Notice, though, the wettest conditions, most of the rain always closest to the low pressure and not much rain this weekend getting to parts of the south.
04:22And so we can show that with the rainfall accumulations from the three models that we use most.
04:28The Met Office model behind me, European model in the middle and the American model, the GFS here on this side.
04:35You can see they're all in pretty much agreement.
04:37So this is, again, going back to that confidence in the forecast because the models are all agreeing pretty much about the rainfall pattern for the weekend.
04:45We were pretty happy with the way that the weekend is shaping up.
04:48This is the total rainfall through Saturday and Sunday.
04:52The wettest conditions in western Scotland in each of the models and actually not much rain at all, if any, getting to parts of East Anglia and the southeast.
05:00So, as I said, we're pretty confident about what's going to happen through the weekends.
05:04Showery rain at times, most persistent across the north and the west with parts of the south and east staying largely dry.
05:11What about beyond that?
05:13Well, that area of low pressure bringing the wet weather through the weekend should be pulling away.
05:18And then we've got another little ridge, a little bump in the isobars that may well bring many places a dry day on Monday.
05:25Monday could be the driest day overall as we go through next week.
05:29Still, there's the chance of some showers mixed in on Monday.
05:33But generally, as I say, Monday with this little ridge of high pressure looking a little drier.
05:37But it may well not last because, as you can see behind me, more low pressure systems gathering out in the Atlantic.
05:43And again, if we take a look at the big picture and the winds high up with the jet stream in a slightly different position now, it's starting to dip down more to the south.
05:51And you can see this little dip here.
05:54We call this a trough.
05:55And in here, it's often where we see low pressure systems either developing or just kind of sitting around.
06:00Instead of the jet stream pushing lows through, get a little dip like that, then you can keep low pressure systems kind of becoming slow moving and sitting close to the UK.
06:10That's likely what we'll see after a drier day on Monday, that low moving in and perhaps becoming slow moving close to the UK.
06:18Switch to the European model now and switch the colors.
06:20But it's the same showing the same thing, showing the pressure pattern in black here and the jet stream, those winds high in the sky in yellow and orange.
06:29And you can see it just dipping down, generating that trough and just allowing that low to sit around rather than pushing it along.
06:36So low pressure likely to be close by to the UK through the middle of next week.
06:40This is Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
06:43But the exact position of the low, well, that is open to quite a bit of uncertainty.
06:49As you'd expect, we're talking pretty much a week away.
06:52And this is the Dalmatian plot, the spotty plot that kind of helps to show that this is, again, from the European model.
06:59The previous chart was the main model run.
07:02But we obviously don't just look at one computer model run.
07:05We use an ensemble and run the model many times.
07:07And each of these spots is a representative of where that low pressure system could be sitting.
07:13I've zoomed in here, but it's no clearer.
07:15It's showing that that low could be northern, could be to the north of Scotland or it could be down across the south of England.
07:21So the position of the low next week open to quite a bit of uncertainty.
07:25But it's reasonable to suggest that low pressure is going to be pretty close by to the UK through the middle of next week, Tuesday and Wednesday in particular.
07:34And when low pressure is close by, that means the air is rising, that means we're going to see cloud and showers.
07:40So, yes, looking pretty unsettled through the middle of next week.
07:44And this probability plot, which goes beyond the middle of next week and towards the following weekend and even beyond that,
07:51well, this isn't what you want to see if you're after dry and sunny weather because these dark blues are dominating.
07:57And those dark blues means that the winds will be continuing to come in from the west.
08:02And when the winds come in from the west, come in from the Atlantic.
08:04So they're bringing moisture and plenty of showers, particularly so into western areas.
08:11Now, as we go towards the back end of next week, there's a staggering of the steps, if you like.
08:17And those dark blue colours do tend to dip down a little bit.
08:20So we may start to see a slightly different flavour of weather.
08:23But don't get too excited because those light blues are just kind of southwest of the wind, still low pressure dominant, generally speaking.
08:30But we are likely perhaps to see a hint of a change as we go towards the end of next week.
08:36So the most likely set up is for low pressure close by to the UK on Wednesday, a cyclonic set up with west or southwesterly winds.
08:45And this is showing the rainfall anomaly, so how much more wet than average it's likely to be with those dark blues situated across Wales, northwest England.
08:54So in this set up, which is the most likely pressure set up over a third of the models, suggesting this set up, which would keep the western half of the UK wetter.
09:05But generally, it is going to be wetter than average across the whole of the UK through Wednesday in particular.
09:10Now, by the time we get to the end of the week, signs are that the low pressure, yes, still dominant, still cyclonic with more of a westerly.
09:17But you can see that the wettest conditions are becoming a little more confined to the north.
09:22Notice also the chance has dropped off a little bit.
09:25We're over a week away.
09:27And by the time we get to Friday, again, the most likely pressure pattern actually has low pressure further away to the north.
09:34And signs perhaps of a ridge of high pressure trying to build in from the south.
09:39So hints that perhaps something a bit dry could develop across southern areas in particular through the back end of next week.
09:47But overall, next week looking pretty changeable, to say the least.
09:50The winds continuing to dominate from the west or the southwest, which will keep things reasonably mild,
09:56but also keeping things fairly wet, especially so in western areas.
10:01Complete contrast to the largely easterly conditions we've had for much of spring.
10:05And that hint, which is all it is at this stage, of something a bit drier in the south to end the week.
10:11As always, for those day-to-day details, you want to be keeping up to date with everything from the Met Office.
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