00:00Well, there's the potential that we could see some stormy weather this Easter weekend,
00:05particularly to northwestern parts of the UK. Further south and east, it's looking that bit
00:10drier and less windy. But let's look at the bigger picture. And currently, there is a front
00:15running across the UK. But I'm more concerned, more interested in what's happening the other
00:20side of the Atlantic. We have cold air across parts of Canada at the moment plunging down.
00:26And it's the marked contrast between the colder air in the north and the much milder
00:29warmer air further south. That's leading to an active jet stream that's then running across
00:35the UK. And it's this jet that is the driving force for a number of low pressure systems
00:40that are going to run across the UK as we go through the next few days. We have one arriving
00:46as we go through the end of Thursday and into Friday. Good Friday. That's going to bring some
00:52wet and also some windy weather. But it's another feature that arrives on Saturday that we're a
00:57little bit more concerned about. Now, initially, it starts off on the right entrance side of the
01:02jet. But as it comes towards us, it does something interesting. It crosses over the jet and lands on
01:08the left exit side. Why is that important? Well, it's that movement that leads to it deepening
01:13rapidly as it heads towards us. So it becomes a more intense feature as it makes its way towards
01:20the UK. Now, there are some question marks, some uncertainties as to the exact timing, the exact
01:26track it's going to take and exactly how deep it's going to be. But another thing to bear in mind
01:31is the shape of it. It's quite elongated low. And so that makes it even more difficult to be too
01:37precise with exactly where and when we're going to see the strongest winds in association with this
01:42feature. But it really does look like we're going to see a particularly wet and windy spell
01:47as we go through Saturday and into Easter Sunday. That then pushes through and clears away through
01:53Sunday. And is that the last of the low pressure centres for this weekend? No, there is another
01:59one coming out into the Atlantic. Fortunately, by the time that we get to Easter Monday, the jet
02:04stream is digging further south. We have a trough extending. And so that's then going to allow for
02:10the low pressure system that's quite mature low by this point to actually stall to the west of us
02:16and so I'm not expecting it to cross over the UK like the earlier lows. Instead, it's going to track
02:22a
02:22bit more northwards and even its associated fronts going to take quite a while to move across us. And
02:27so that's less likely to be as impactful as particularly the one that's arriving on Saturday.
02:32But let's look at the details. And as I mentioned before, yes, there is a front making its way
02:37southeastwards at the moment. That's pushing southeastwards then and will clear away as we go
02:42into Thursday. And for many, actually, Thursday looks like a largely decent day. Maybe not all
02:47that sunny for quite a few places. Some decent blue sky across parts of Wales, southwest England
02:53and temperatures here quite easily getting into the low teens perhaps. They're not feeling too bad at all.
02:59Elsewhere, yes, more cloud temperatures a little bit lower. And then we have some cloudier, wetter and
03:04windier weather pushing into the northwest later on. That's in association with one of those lows that I
03:09showed you earlier. Then overnight Thursday into Friday, wet and windy weather will sweep its way
03:15south and eastwards across much of the country. The rain could be quite heavy at times, particularly
03:19towards the north. And then even as it clears away, we're going to see plenty of showers following in
03:24behind. There is a trailing frontal system of sorts as well. And slightly colder air digging in as we go
03:30through Good Friday. And so that means some of those showers will quite readily fall asleep or snow
03:34over parts of Scotland in particular. Also watch out for some strong gusty winds, some lee
03:39gustiness. So downwind of places like the Pennines, for example, could see some strong gusts. Also the
03:44northern Isles through Good Friday likely to have to have some strong gusts as well. Temperatures for
03:49many, if anything, up a degree or two on Thursday. But yes, with those strong winds, perhaps not
03:54necessarily feeling it. Then looking at the bigger picture as we go through Good Friday, that area of low
04:01pressure then is up towards the northeast of us. And then we do have a frontal system of sorts that's
04:06bringing some showery rain. And behind it, we have colder air making its way in. So whilst during the
04:11day time for many, it's going to be a little bit milder, we do see temperatures dropping as we go
04:17through Good Friday and into Saturday. Now, exactly how quickly that cold air plunges southwards, that's
04:23been a little bit uncertain through some recent model runs. And so earlier runs had the milder air clinging
04:28on across southern parts until Saturday morning. But now it looks like the fresher, colder air will be more
04:34widespread. So most places waking up on Saturday morning to a bit of a chilly start. But there
04:39will be a lot of fine weather around, a good deal of dry, sunny weather to be had first thing
04:43on
04:43Saturday morning for many of us, just some wintry showers across some parts of Scotland and a few
04:48showers dotted around elsewhere. But then we need to turn our attention to a deepening area of low
04:55pressure that's coming through. It crosses the jet stream and it is going to deepen rapidly as it
05:00heads towards us. As a result, we can expect some very strong winds and also some pretty wet weather
05:07as well, particularly towards northern and western parts. Further south and east, you're avoiding the
05:12strongest winds and avoiding the wettest weather. But nonetheless, it is looking particularly unsettled,
05:18potentially stormy towards some parts of the northwest as we go through Saturday and into
05:23Sunday. This does look like a very deep area of low pressure, particularly for the time of year.
05:30The record for pressure in the UK in April is only around 961 hectopascals or millibars. And it looks
05:38like this could get very close to that, perhaps even a little bit lower than that. So that's no wonder
05:43then that we are going to see some very strong winds in association with it. There are some discrepancies
05:48between models, however. And so I've been showing you the Met Office model. And that's perhaps not the most
05:54intense when you look at other outputs. So at the bottom here, I have ECMWF, the European Centre for
06:00Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. And their models use ever so slightly different criteria. And
06:05their models highlight the potential for that low pressure centre to be very deep indeed. More intense,
06:12so stronger winds and heavier rain does have it a little bit further north and east compared to
06:17our system. So slightly further away from the UK, not tracking over Scotland as such. But nonetheless,
06:23if this comes off, well, it could be potentially pretty stormy indeed. So that's why we're keeping
06:27an eye on it. And that's why we've also issued some warnings. We have wind warnings across Scotland,
06:34parts of Northern Ireland, parts of Northern and Western England and Wales. We're talking gusts 50 to 60
06:39miles per hour quite widely as we go through Saturday into Sunday. And in exposed spots, 60 to 70, perhaps
06:4580 to 90 miles per hour possible. Then the other thing that I wanted to highlight is all of our
06:50warnings get plotted on an impact matrix where we look at the likelihood and also the impacts. And so
06:57whilst at the moment, the likelihood is just very low, or it's quite unlikely because of that
07:03uncertainty, the discrepancies between the models. So we can't be too confident that exactly how deep
07:08that feature is going to be. It's just worth bearing in mind that there are some significant impacts
07:13possible with this strength of wind. And so yeah, it could be quite a feature coming through. It's
07:20just the confidence isn't quite there yet. But we will firm on up on that as we get nearer the
07:25time.
07:26Then through Sunday, we do have colder air coming in again, we drag in some milder air for a time
07:31as we
07:32go into Easter Sunday, but then some colder air coming in from the northwest as the low pressure pushes
07:37its way towards the northeast. So that deep feature that's arriving on Saturday, that clears away,
07:41takes a little bit longer to clear the northern isle. So there's very strong winds last there through
07:46much of Easter Sunday, whereas elsewhere, we'll see the winds dropping out and then showers following
07:50in. And with that colder air, yes, again, some of those showers could be a bit wintry. So some sleet
07:55and snow mixed in with them as well. Then there's another area of low pressure out in the Atlantic,
08:00but this one doesn't look like it's going to push across the UK in the same way. It looks like
08:04it's going to
08:05kind of stall to the west of us before then edging a little bit further northwards. But one thing that
08:10it is set to do because of its position, drag in some air from the south. So we're likely to
08:15see
08:16temperatures rising again as we go through Easter Monday and into Tuesday as well. So it could be
08:21particularly mild. We're looking at temperatures, maybe mid to high teens, perhaps even getting close
08:26to the low 20s if you get any decent sunshine. But again, there's some uncertainty as to exactly how
08:32quickly this feature moves through. Some model runs have it coming through on Monday. Others don't have it
08:38pushing through until gone Tuesday into Wednesday, really. And so that's going to play quite a pivotal
08:42part in exactly when any wet weather is and also how warm it will be each day. Now, one thing
08:49I did want to
08:50highlight, if we show our 24-hour rainfall totals as we go through Friday, Saturday, Sunday and into Monday,
08:55whilst northern and western parts are having some very strong winds and there will be a fair amount of rain
09:00many days. Towards the south and east, actually, there's a lot of dry weather to be had. Yes,
09:06there will be some rain at times and it will be quite windy, but nowhere near as windy as towards
09:10the northwest. But, you know, as bank cloud of day weekends go towards the southeast, it's not looking
09:16too shabby. But this is a 10-day trend, so let's look even further ahead. Let's go past the weekend
09:22now.
09:22And, well, the probability plot paints a sort of interesting picture. At the moment, low pressure,
09:29often quite unsettled. And as we go through the weekend, that's the theme. But as we go through
09:33Monday, Tuesday, I showed you with the position of that low lingering out to the west of us,
09:37that could allow for a bit more of a southwesterly flow developing. So that's why things are set to
09:43turn a bit milder. And then as we go deeper into next week, well, it looks like we're going to
09:48get
09:48quite a zonal pattern again. So a westerly flow generally developing. And so more unsettled towards
09:54the north, perhaps a little bit drier towards the south at times, quite changeable, not, you know,
09:59not as unsettled as what we're expecting through the weekend. But yeah, fair to say it's likely to
10:03stay quite changeable. And we can see that if we look at the most likely setup. So for next Tuesday,
10:09the 7th of April, higher pressure towards south, lower pressure towards the northeast,
10:12that low pressure towards the west of us pushing its way northwards. The second and third most likely
10:17setups are quite similar, just exactly where that low pressure is, where the high pressure is,
10:21is a little bit different. But yeah, wetter towards the north, perhaps a little bit drier
10:25towards the south through Wednesday through Thursday. It's all quite similar, really,
10:29with the idea then as we go later on in the week, shifting to something a bit more westerly as
10:34opposed to southwesterly. And so that brings more unsettled weather towards more northern parts and
10:40perhaps signs of higher pressure developing by the time that we get to the following weekend. But,
10:45you know, it's only a pretty low chance, as you would expect at this sort of lead time. But
10:51nonetheless, I think it's fair to say there is going to be some more changeable weather to come.
10:55Temperature wise, well, what does that mean? Well, I've already highlighted that Monday into
10:58Tuesday, there's likely to be a spike in our temperatures, so likely to rise up. And so they
11:04could be quite on the warm side, really, high teens, low 20s, perhaps, but then they drop down to
11:09nearer normal, really, as we go through the rest of next week. So no, nothing really to write home
11:15about on that front. So I think that's all I've got to say. So worth keeping up to date with
11:19the
11:19forecast, particularly with the potential for some very unsettled weather to come this weekend.
11:23I'll see you again soon. Bye bye.
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