00:00Hello, very good day to you. Welcome to your latest Met Office 10 day trend. I'll be looking
00:04at what we can expect weather wise in the run up to Christmas and through the Christmas
00:08period itself. Now, first of all, looking at the bigger picture and currently the jet
00:12stream is running across the UK and it's driven an area of low pressure and associated weather
00:17system that's made its way in across southern parts, bringing quite a bit of rain. As well
00:21as this, we've had mild air across much of the country so far this week. Temperatures
00:26well above average for the time of year, but we do have cold air nearby starting to make
00:30its way in. And as this low pressure drifts away towards the east, we have a ridge building
00:35from the west. And so we got our flow coming from the northwest, a cold direction. And
00:40that cold air is going to penetrate across much of the country as we go into Thursday.
00:46And as well as the cold air, notice how tightly packed those ice bars are. It is going to
00:51be blustery. It's going to be quite windy when you factor in the wind and the cold air
00:54is going to feel pretty raw despite the fact that there'll be a decent amount of sunshine
00:58for many of us. A quiet end to the day on Thursday. So a chilly start to the night Thursday
01:03night into Friday. But then another front makes its way in. So we will see cloud building
01:07and a bit of rain arriving as well as we go through Friday itself. And then our attention
01:12turns to what's going on in the Atlantic, a strong jet. And now this strong jet is going
01:17to drive an area of low pressure that's going to go through something called explosive cyclogenesis.
01:23So it's going to deepen rapidly as it heads towards the UK. Now, confidence on the track
01:27of this low is actually relatively high. Good chance it's going to track just to the north
01:32of the UK as we go through this weekend. What's a little less confident is exactly how strong
01:38the winds are going to be because we're not quite so sure exactly how steep this pressure
01:42gradient is going to be. Nonetheless, we are expecting some very windy weather across northern
01:47parts in particular as we go into Saturday and then perhaps becoming a bit more widespread
01:51strong winds on Sunday. After a colder blip on Thursday, nothing out of the ordinary for
01:57the time of year. Temperatures are actually going to pick up again as we go through Friday
02:01and Saturday. But there's more cold air waiting. And so as we go through the second half of
02:05the weekend, as the low continues to push its way eastwards, we are going to see that
02:09cold air pushing in again. And so Sunday looks like it's going to be a bit chillier for some
02:14of us. And with that, there's a greater chance of seeing some wintry hazards. Notice as well
02:18an occluded front wrapping around and pushing back through. So whilst it's going to be showers
02:22for many places, there could be some more persistent rain across northern parts as we
02:26go through Sunday. But let's look at the weather in a little bit more detail. So heading back to
02:31the rest of Wednesday. And yes, it's a pretty wet picture across southern parts of the UK.
02:35That wet weather, though, will clear away towards the east. And like I said, we have a ridge of
02:40high pressure. So things are going to quiet down for many Thursdays, actually looking like a decent
02:45day. Lots of winter sunshine on offer, but there will be some showers around. And with that cold
02:49air, good chance those showers will be wintry over modest higher ground further north above
02:54300 to 400 metres or so. We could see some lying snow in places because of those wintry showers.
03:00Most of the showers will die out for a time as we go through later Thursday and overnight into
03:04Friday before then another system comes through. So we are going to see some clouds, some rain,
03:09in association with a front making its way southeastwards as we go through Friday. But
03:14it's the winds really that we need to be concerned about as we go into the weekend.
03:18So let's look at the gusts in association with this deep low that's coming in. You can see
03:23they're really going to strengthen as we go through later Friday night and more so through
03:27Saturday itself. Like I said already, on Saturday, it's pretty likely that the strong winds are really
03:33going to be confined to the north of the UK. Well, the strongest winds anyway. Gusts could reach
03:39perhaps up to 70 or 80 miles per hour in the most exposed spots around the Western Isles at
03:43the Outer Hebrides. We could see some very strong gusts, but it's not necessarily that
03:49certain that will definitely happen. I think what's more likely is we are going to see some
03:53strong gusts across northern parts and then widely on Sunday it is going to be windy as this low
03:58drifts away towards the northeast, towards Scandinavia. So Saturday could perhaps bring
04:03the strongest winds, but Sunday is more likely to be windy quite widely for most of us.
04:09If we look at that in a slightly different way, and here's some ECMWF output showing
04:14the probability of greater than 50 knots gusts and that's around 57 miles per hour,
04:20so a bit stronger than gales. And you can see as we go through the day, it really is just across
04:24the north-northwest of the UK that we have a good chance of seeing those really strong gusts.
04:30But if we compare this to the chart for Sunday, so the same chart but this time just for Sunday
04:35instead, and you can see the probability, albeit slightly lower, but looks more widespread across
04:41the country. So if you're in the south, it looks like Sunday is going to be the windier day.
04:46If you're in the north, both days look pretty windy, but there's probably a greater chance of
04:51us seeing those extreme winds or the most extreme winds, 70, 80 miles per hour on Saturday as opposed
04:57to Sunday. Let's look at the details through Friday though, because lots of people will be
05:01travelling, one of the busiest travelling days of the year, and like we had a front pushing its way
05:06south-eastwards, so cloud and rain making its way south-eastwards across the country. Behind it,
05:11there will be some showers and they could have a bit of a wintry element perhaps over the highest
05:15ground, but it's not going to be as cold as on Thursday. Temperatures picking up just that little
05:20bit, high single figures, perhaps even double digits for a few places. Darting ahead to Saturday,
05:25and it's going to be a showery picture for many of us. Outbreaks of showery rain, there will be a
05:30front pushing through, so that could bring some squally rain and some convective bursts at times,
05:35so some heavy pulses of rain, but plenty of outbreaks of showers coming through as well,
05:40and it's definitely those winds that we need to watch out for, and so some of those showers could
05:45be wintry as well over the higher ground of Scotland in particular. But now if we look to
05:49Sunday, and by this point, again, it's a showery setup for many places, piling down on that brisk
05:56or strong north-northwesterly flow, but with those lower temperatures, there's a greater chance of
06:02us seeing some sleet or snow. Some places, some modest higher ground over Scotland, could wake
06:06up to a bit of covering of snow first thing on Sunday morning. Perhaps as we go through the day
06:11Sunday itself, we're likely to see the snow becoming more rain as that occlusion that I
06:16mentioned before wraps around and pushes its way back in, so we could see some outbreaks of more
06:20persistent rain arriving for a time. But most places seeing some showers, also some sunny
06:24breaks developing, but yes, Sunday does look like the colder and windier day of the weekend for many
06:30of us. Looking a bit further ahead then, and we're actually looking through the next few days,
06:35because we talked about rainfall totals, each individual event doesn't actually look like it
06:39will cause too many problems, but if we run through the rest of this week and the weekend,
06:45looking at our rainfall totals, you can see they are actually going to build up. So whilst
06:50any frontal system that comes through through the next few days is only likely to bring 20 to 30,
06:55possibly 40 millimetres to some places. When you add it all up, some places, high ground of Wales,
07:00north-west England, western parts of Scotland, could be looking at around 80-90 millimetres. So
07:07individually, those events probably not enough to cause any major impacts, but by the time that we
07:11get to Saturday, Sunday, with some heavy pulses of rain, quite likely we could start to see some
07:16impacts, because of the wet weather that we've seen in the preceding few days. What happens
07:21thereafter though? Well, as we go through later Sunday, we have another ridge of high pressure
07:25building, so quieter for a time later Sunday and overnight into Monday. But another system then
07:31comes through, and so we are going to see some more clouds, some rain for a time as we go through
07:35later Monday and into Tuesday. But then it's this area of high pressure that's trying to build its
07:40way and it's trying on Monday, but it doesn't win out until slightly later on. It's more as we head
07:45through Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day itself that we're going to see this high pushing
07:49its way northwards and becoming more dominant across the U.K. and keeping fronts just to the
07:54north or over the far north of the U.K. We can see that in a different way if we look at our
07:59multi-modal weather regime probability. And at the moment, the blue is indicating lower pressure,
08:04more unsettled weather quite likely in the run-up to Christmas. But as we head towards Christmas Day
08:09and the following few days, you can see the oranges, the reds, the high pressure patterns,
08:14the anti-cyclonic patterns look more likely. And so it's pretty confident that we are going to see
08:18high pressure building and dominating across the country as we go through Christmas Day and more
08:24so by Boxing Day and thereafter. So a more settled spell from Christmas Day onwards. If we look at
08:30the most likely regimes from ECMWF and you can see high pressure sitting across southern parts of the
08:35U.K. looks most likely for Christmas Day. That still will allow for some wet and windy weather
08:40across the far north of the U.K. But across much of the country, it's looking largely fine and dry.
08:46A very different picture to the run-up to Christmas when it's looking pretty changeable.
08:50And it looks like this settled spell will last through Boxing Day and beyond even until the 27th
08:56when also lots of people will be traveling. It looks like it's going to be pretty settled indeed.
09:02So yes, across the far north of the U.K., some wet and windy weather still to come,
09:05but elsewhere, lots of fine weather as we go through the Christmas period. To sum that up then,
09:10in the run-up too, we can expect some wet, some windy weather. The strongest winds likely to be
09:15this weekend, particularly Saturday in the north. That's when we could see gusts of around 70 to 80
09:20miles per hour. So that could cause some disruption. There will be some heavy rain around with totals
09:24building up, even though each individual event unlikely to cause any significant disruption.
09:29But when you add those rainfall totals, we could see a bit of localized flooding.
09:32But from Christmas Day onwards, that's when we get the high pressure building,
09:36and so things should settle down. With that though, with the high pressure,
09:39things largely calm. And the time of year, that does bring an increasing risk of some frost by
09:44night and also some fog patches as well. Now, for more information, of course, you'll want to
09:49subscribe to our YouTube channel so you never miss an update. Worth bearing in mind,
09:53this will be the last 10-day trend for the year. We won't be back with a 10-day trend until January,
09:58but you can, of course, keep up to date with our deep dives, our week aheads, our weekend forecast,
10:03all our regular forecasts, and also our 14-day outlook is available on our app,
10:08updated every Tuesday and Friday. I'll see you again soon. Bye-bye.
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