00:07Welcome to South Asia Monitor's TAM Conversation.
00:13Colonel Blatt, it's a pleasure to be here.
00:15You have an important program that monitors South Asia, and I'm pleased to participate with you.
00:22It is our pleasure to welcome Dr. Robert Lawrence Kuhn, who has authored, after almost 30 books, of which four
00:35of five are on China.
00:37Here is his latest, Xi Jinping's New Era China, The Inside Story.
00:47Yes, it's been a work of literally 13, 14 years.
00:55I followed Xi Jinping, I've known him since 2005, so that's over 21 years.
01:04And I followed him very closely in his leadership in China from 2012, right before he became senior leader,
01:13General Secretary of the Communist Party, and have followed him this whole period of time.
01:19So the book is a compilation of Xi Jinping's policies, domestic, foreign policies, from 2012 to roughly now, the end
01:33of 2025.
01:36It's a heartiest congratulations, first of all, on this book.
01:42And I think what I can say about it is it offers a balanced and context-driven examination of Xi
01:51Jinping's leadership from 2012 onwards.
01:54Yes.
01:55And I think well avoiding either the Western viewpoint or any praise, without criticism.
02:11I like to put it this way.
02:13I don't represent anybody.
02:14I don't represent Xi Jinping.
02:16I don't represent China.
02:18I'm proud to be an American, but I don't represent America.
02:22I only represent myself, which is a very independent way to be.
02:26And so it is my views of what has happened in China, largely from the perspective of the Chinese people,
02:36what they see, how they have seen Xi Jinping, what his policies have been.
02:43And I think I have a very clear understanding of that.
02:46I certainly understand all the criticisms of China.
02:48In the first part of the book, I list a lot of the criticisms so that this is not something
02:53I'm not aware of.
02:55But I said, you know, many of these, many of the criticisms are available in the West.
03:02You see it all the time.
03:03Of course, China has their talking points.
03:06I try to give my view and to do it in a, I don't necessarily look for balance.
03:13I look for truth because sometimes the two don't relate.
03:17You can be balanced, but not true.
03:20You know, if I was writing the book during China's Cultural Revolution, should I be balanced?
03:27Of course not.
03:27It was terrible.
03:29So I try to discern what truth is.
03:32It doesn't mean I'm always right.
03:34There may be some things I don't know.
03:36But I try to give an inside view of Xi Jinping, what his thinking is, and how it affects China
03:44and the world.
03:45I'm looking forward to reviewing your book, and it's fun.
03:51It's fun getting into it.
03:54You know, having been an observer of China for some decades now, and having authored a book in 2020.
04:05Yeah.
04:07Yeah, that's right.
04:08I have been involved with China since the late 1980s, so it's been almost literally 40 years, and have known
04:19all the different leaders of the country personally.
04:22And it's from that background that I'm able to bring perhaps a different way of thinking than most of the
04:31Western media.
04:32I don't criticize the Western media and the international media for their approaches to China.
04:37What I say is that much of what they say is true, but it's not the whole truth.
04:44The whole truth is much bigger than that.
04:48The example...
04:49Who knows?
04:49Who knows?
04:51And particularly for India, rising India, I've said that if the first decades of the 21st century revolve around the
05:03US-China relationship,
05:04subsequent decades, certainly the second half of the 21st century, will revolve around India-China relations.
05:12So I have spent some time in India, and of course, maybe 200 times in China, to try to understand
05:23that relationship to help.
05:24You know, I should mention something, that I'm very sensitive to India's issues, because I was staying at the Taj
05:30Hotel in 2008, one week before the terrorist attack.
05:37Before the horrible attack.
05:39One week, and I was eating in the same restaurant in the hotel that got blown up, one week before.
05:47And, you know, that makes it very personal, because it was extremely familiar to me.
05:55And so that has given me a sense of...
05:58Of course, I was in New York at 9-11, and so, you know, I'm very sensitive to the strong
06:06issues in the world.
06:07But I also sense in today's, you know, media-driven, 24-hour news, social media, that there's a tendency for
06:17small points of irritation to be exaggerated.
06:21And so I try to give a big picture of China, so that India, in particular, with this book, can
06:30understand.
06:32It's not to...
06:34It's not to praise or whitewash or to criticize, but just to give a rich, complex understanding, so that good
06:43decisions can be made.
06:45No, I appreciate what you've come out with, because I think you've, at least, you've tried to...
06:55Not tried, you have shown maybe a view of Mr. Xi Jinping, which is certainly, you know, far more based
07:08on a lot of knowledge of the person,
07:13and of the Chinese.
07:16Yes, I can give you one example of that.
07:19One program that Xi Jinping really personally initiated in a significant way was the Anti-Poverty Campaign.
07:29Now, all China has always talked about poverty.
07:32But Xi Jinping, when he came into office, this became his priority.
07:35That there were, even though the country was growing, the GDP per capita was growing very high,
07:42there were still about 100 million Chinese people living in the mountains, or minorities, or infirm people,
07:50who, no matter how much China would grow, would still be in absolute poverty.
07:55And Xi Jinping made a priority, beginning about 2013, to bring these people above the poverty line.
08:03It doesn't mean making them rich.
08:05It means getting them a flush toilet, or getting them, you know, basic schooling, or basic health care.
08:11And this was a priority.
08:14And he said that, of all the things I do, the Anti-Poverty Campaign is my most important topic,
08:22of which I spend the most energy on, more than the economy, more than social problems, more than the military.
08:29That doesn't mean he didn't do those other things.
08:31He did them.
08:32But he said during that period, the Anti-Poverty Campaign is the most important thing I do.
08:37He visited, the last I counted, was about 60 poor areas over a three-, four-year period.
08:45And I'm sure there was more than 100.
08:48Every time he travels, he makes an effort to go to a poor village and make the point.
08:53And what that does, in the communist system that's all top-down government, and it's all from the top,
09:02it sends a signal to all the officials that if that's the priority for the senior leader,
09:08it better be the priority for you.
09:10And so what he did is signaled through the communist authoritarian system
09:17that the Anti-Poverty Campaign was the most important thing they do.
09:21And officials were promoted or demoted based upon the success of what they achieved.
09:29So this is a side of Xi Jinping that most people do not know.
09:33And this does not obviate and eliminate some of the criticisms,
09:40but it's just additional facts that people should know in understanding China, and Xi in particular.
09:47No, your book highlights his domestic priorities of poverty alleviation,
09:56common prosperity, environmental protection, national security, of course.
10:09and your book comes, I think, as far as we are concerned, with some timing.
10:16Yeah.
10:17We've just had, in August, we've had a meeting of India's national security advisor, Ajit Doval,
10:27was their foreign minister.
10:31And that's supposed to be quite significant because they've come out with some eight-point program
10:38and a very welcome development of opening up two hotlines.
10:45Yeah.
10:46That's excellent.
10:47That's a very good step forward.
10:49Which is very significant because at least now you can talk quickly to each other on a very long disputed,
11:00mostly disputed border where, you know, deployed very heavily, quite, you know, mirroring each other's deployment.
11:13And it's a very funny relationship because 1967, in 1962 we had the first, you know, India-China war,
11:25at which time India was still fighting with a very ancient rifle, the Lee and Field, three bolt action rifle
11:36with five rounds in its magazine.
11:41But nonetheless, that doesn't, the Indian army was short of, they were short of clothes for the kind of high
11:52altitude
11:53that we were fighting in, we were short of, well, the very basic weapon.
11:59But I think the Indian army, like it did in the First World War, like it did in the Second
12:05World War,
12:06it made up with sheer, sheer courage.
12:09Yeah.
12:09Anyway, but what happened in 1967, it was a few skirmishes in Sikkim in September of 1967.
12:21And in that, that was again, that was a time when it was, you know, a great shock to the
12:30People's Liberation Army
12:31because they lost over 400 soldiers over just a couple of weeks and a few skirmishes.
12:41And that's when it, they realized that, you know, Indian army had got a new rifle by that time.
12:49I often say that we have to thank China for, for attacking us in 1962 because finally we got a
12:58new rifle after that.
13:00Anyway, but they got so, you know, shocked by that action that they pressed very hard that let's not fire
13:11at each other.
13:12Yes.
13:13And mind you, with all the tensions we've held, we've held that in 2020 when they came and, you know,
13:23killed 20 of our soldiers,
13:25including a commanding officer of a battalion with, you know, you can say medieval kind of rods with, with sharp,
13:39you know, sharp,
13:41this thing, nails on them, etc. We didn't fire back. We still did not use firearms.
13:48We did, the Indian army retaliated, but retaliated with, with, in, in, in unarmed combatants,
13:56kill, the official count was 43, but the, the, from many other, this thing that, I think the count was
14:06almost 100,
14:09who, you know, thrown into the Galwan river. It's, it's, it's, it's, and that happened during the,
14:18pandemic.
14:19I know.
14:20You know, right in the middle of the pandemic. And we, we, even after that, whatever has happened,
14:27there, I think we fired a few rounds, once we occupied the Kailash range. But those, you know,
14:37fired in, you know, not aimed fire, that was just to, to, to get, you know, just as a warning.
14:44So literally for, ever since 1967, we haven't fired at each other. And that, this is a kind of, a
14:52border management,
14:53bulletless border management, that we've been...
14:57That's a remarkable history that should be appreciated on both sides.
15:03And, I, I, and now, the other timing is that, we're going to have a BRICS meeting here.
15:11Yes.
15:12With India being the chair, you know, chairing, chair country. And, the, the very nomenclature of the BRICS has been
15:21changed.
15:21It's no longer, you know, country based. It's, it's sort of, what it's, what it's supposed to be, what it's
15:32aimed to be. And it, it, it, you know, it has a scope of many other countries, you know, becoming
15:42part of it in future.
15:45But what is very significant is that there's a very large Chinese delegation which is confirmed to be attending.
15:54Yeah.
15:55Although Mr. Xi Jinping has not yet, his arrival is not yet confirmed.
16:02Yeah.
16:02Although it's...
16:03I, I have heard that it was just confirmed that he's coming for one day. I, I, I heard that.
16:09Maybe.
16:09Maybe.
16:09Well, there you are. Then you, you, you, you told us. I mean, I mean, there was a very strong
16:18hope of his, his coming. But it wasn't being confirmed. Now that you, you, you confirmed it in Asia, I
16:27think that, that should make a difference.
16:29Um, and, um, certainly, uh, it should, um, it should bring more, much more attention, uh, on your book, on
16:42this latest book of yours.
16:44Well, I, I, I hope, I hope it contributes to the conversation in India about India-China relations, because again,
16:53India-China relations is not just important for the individual countries, but for the entire world.
16:59And even India's participation in the BRICS and expansion of BRICS is, is, is, is very critical, because India has
17:07relations with, uh, not just the U.S., but other countries, uh, that are different than some of the, uh,
17:13other BRICS countries.
17:14And so, uh, you can't have an organization like BRICS without India. I mean, that would be meaningless, right? And
17:23so India's participation is, uh, is, is very important for, for the future.
17:29Uh, originally, uh, uh, originally, China had BRICS as, uh, uh, uh, sort of an, uh, not anti-Western, anti
17:37-U.S., but, uh, another mechanism by which, uh, the world can be, um, approached in a multilateral way.
17:44And some of the other countries were, shall we say, more dependent on China. Certainly Russia has become extremely dependent
17:53upon China and has its own anti-Western views.
17:57But India has been a very principled, uh, interest in, uh, in the interest of India itself, uh, but also
18:04in, in a way that, uh, uh, truly reflects a multipolar world as opposed to using the word multipolar as
18:13a way of, of, of, of, of meaning sort of an anti-U.S. uh, function. Uh, so India's role
18:20is critical.
18:21No, I, I don't think, uh, you see, after all, it, you know, um, a single country or a single
18:29power, uh, remaining at, um, remaining in the leading, uh, position as a, you know, unipolar, it's, it's, it's something
18:40which can't, it, it cannot last for very long.
18:45Yeah.
18:45It can last for decades, but history, you know, you go, let's go back into history.
18:50Right, right, right.
18:52Yeah.
18:52Whenever there was a, there were, there was a great rise, it was followed by a fall.
18:58And, uh, no, it's not, what you, what you just said is, is very, very significant, uh, is that multipolarity
19:08is, I think, um, it, it, it, it really is going to be good for everyone.
19:14Yes, I agree.
19:15Done properly.
19:17Absolutely.
19:18Yeah.
19:18Yeah, I'm sure it will be, even the, the U.S. will, uh, benefit, um, a lot from it.
19:26Yeah.
19:26And so will a number of other countries.
19:30Yeah.
19:30Uh, there's no benefit to the U.S. to be the world's policeman.
19:35Uh, that, that, that's a, a burden that, uh, that, that the U.S. shouldn't carry.
19:40I mean, other, other countries should be committed to the stability of the world, uh, and to, and to create
19:48stability.
19:48Uh, certainly India is, you know, at the top of the list and China is, uh, for its point of
19:54view, for its domestic development, which is the number one, uh, interest of Xi Jinping and the leadership is China's
20:02own domestic development.
20:03They need stability.
20:05Uh, in fact, if, if, you know, um, Ukraine and, um, Russia can, you know, finish that war and, and,
20:20and if, also, whatever is going on in the Persian Gulf.
20:26Yes.
20:27If there can be, it, it, it really, because if what is happening in both places, if particularly the Persian
20:34Gulf, if that continues, it's going to hurt, it's going to hurt so many.
20:38It's going to hurt the whole world.
20:40Yeah.
20:40It is.
20:41You know, the energy, um, energy becoming dearer.
20:46Yeah.
20:46Yeah.
20:46Absolutely right.
20:48Uh, the, uh, the issue is that are, are certain countries committed to the stability?
20:55It's peace and stability of the world.
20:56Um, you know, Russia for one did not exactly show a commitment to stability by invading Ukraine.
21:04Uh, people talk about Russia, Ukraine war, they should solve it.
21:07Uh, but it's really asymmetric.
21:09I mean, Russia invaded Ukraine and took territory.
21:13So, uh, that to my mind goes against the, uh, a multipolar world that is, uh, is properly balanced
21:24in order to create stability.
21:26Uh, so.
21:27Well, then you, that is so.
21:30But then, uh, on the other hand is, uh, you know, uh, there's so many native countries, which, uh, which,
21:38uh, are sort of trying to, uh, it almost amounts to getting at Russia, uh, by using, uh, fighting from
21:49Ukraine's shoulders.
21:50Uh, it, it, that's a, that's a, that's a, that's a view.
21:55That's, uh, also a view.
21:58Uh, I, I, I, I understand that view, uh, but that view was in reaction, not as, not, that was
22:06not the primary thing.
22:07That was in reaction that they were worried that if, if Russia took over Ukraine, that they may have other,
22:13you know, that may not be the end of their interest.
22:16They may want to take back other countries that were formerly under the Soviet bloc, like, you know, the Baltic
22:23states, Poland.
22:23So, it, it's a complicated situation, but.
22:27It is, it is, but, um, I, I'm, one is, oh, well, with a few statements and developments in just
22:33the last few days, um, they just raise a little, you know, hope that maybe, maybe, um, we may see
22:43the, you know, um, both these, um, countries, uh, because it, it's not, it's not helping either.
22:50It's, it's, it's, it's, uh, it's a great amount of destruction.
22:53For sure.
22:54For sure.
22:55For sure.
22:56And we also hope that the same, uh, uh, you know, happens in the, in the Persian Gulf also.
23:07Um, Dr. Kohn, is there, um, well, as I said, one looks forward to finishing your book and, uh, you
23:15know, finishing a review with it.
23:17Um, is there anything you would like to bring out?
23:21Yeah.
23:22I, I would like, uh, the primary thing I, I am concerned about is, uh, to help India-China relations
23:30for the future.
23:31And there are complexities.
23:33Everybody knows about the border in 2020.
23:35I mean, that, that's, that's common knowledge.
23:37Uh, another thing of importance is that there's a huge trade imbalance.
23:41Uh, the trade between India and China is, is growing and I applaud, applaud that.
23:47I think it's like a hundred and third, more than $130 billion per year now, annualized trade.
23:53Mm-hmm.
23:54But is asymmetrical in that, uh, a hundred and ten or, or something is, uh, uh, India importing, uh, um,
24:03high-tech goods, electrical equipment, all sorts of things, and only exporting about less than $20 billion of raw materials.
24:11And so the deficit is about $110 billion a year, and it's, uh, not only deficit in numbers, a deficit
24:18in quality, in, in kinds of products.
24:21And so that's an issue that, that has to be resolved, especially with a rising India.
24:27Uh, but these, uh, and these problems are obviously recognized, the border problem, the trade imbalance problem.
24:34Um, but in doing that, what my goal is, is for the Indian, uh, officials, leadership, business leaders, to understand
24:44the internal dynamics of China.
24:46How it works internally, which is their number one concern.
24:50Number two is the, you know, China's role in the world, you know, and protecting what it thinks its borders.
24:55But to understand China in depth is very important for Indian leadership.
25:01And that's why I wrote the book.
25:02No doubt, uh, Dr. Kuhn, but what, you know, what weighs, um, very, very much against, uh, China is that,
25:13there is hundreds, thousands, um, of kilometers, square kilometers of territory, which is still, it's, it's, um, hanging on too.
25:21Yeah. And, you know, it's, it has been, uh, um, every now and then, it's, there's a term called salami
25:31slicing.
25:31Which, it, it, you know, which, it, you know, which, which has been going on.
25:36So we, and we haven't, mind you, we haven't reacted with firepower.
25:43Yeah.
25:43We still, uh, that's why we say that, uh, uh, in, in the, in this eight point, um, uh, meeting
25:51the, there was a, uh, uh, um, an idea that let, let, let the, let's solve what we can.
25:58And, and let, let the uns, the difficult, what is difficult to solve, let that wait.
26:05But, you know, it's waited 70 years, 75 years.
26:10Yeah. Yeah.
26:11Yeah. Look, China has the same argument vis-a-vis Taiwan.
26:15Uh, so India's argument about China's occupation is China's argument.
26:20So, you know, everybody sees the world from their own perspective, and that's fine.
26:24And that's fine.
26:26Of course, it's fine.
26:27And, uh, you know, I'm not trying to change that.
26:29All the issues you bring up are very valid issues.
26:33I'm just trying to give a broader perspective of China so that when India deals with China on the business
26:42level or, uh, lower level officials, and certainly the high level officials, they'd have a deeper sense of the, of
26:50the internal dynamics of China so that they have a more nuanced approach to, uh, Chinese interests.
26:58And I think that mutual knowledge of both sides.
27:03And by the way, when I'm in China, they're, uh, the average, uh, you know, high level person is not
27:10very familiar with India, uh, just like in India is not very familiar with China.
27:14So if I were an expertise in India, I would write a book for China.
27:18Yeah.
27:19I've always, I, having been, been part of, uh, a few think tanks, I've always, uh, maintained that we must
27:29study much more about China than we are doing so far.
27:34Yeah.
27:34I, I agree.
27:35I mean, we agree a hundred percent.
27:37We must.
27:38And so much, so much China.
27:40There's so much of this ancient civilization, uh, uh, of India, you know, that, uh, uh, well, um, but anyway,
27:51um, I, I, I'm, I'm looking forward to reviewing your book and recommending it to my friends and colleagues.
27:59Well, I, I appreciate that very much.
28:02I, I, I take the book very seriously.
28:04By the way, I appreciate Pentagon Press, uh, for its, uh, publishing it.
28:08It is, it is a world-class publisher and I'm proud to be associated with them.
28:14Yes, Rajan.
28:15One has had, uh, the pleasure of knowing Rajan since the, since the, uh, mid nineties.
28:22Mid nineties when he was a young, budding, uh, you know, publisher and, um, he's, he's published, uh, couple of
28:33my books.
28:33I've reviewed, I think about 30 odd books of his, uh.
28:37Oh, wow.
28:38Wow.
28:38Yeah.
28:38That's great.
28:40Very important contribution.
28:41And I'm pleased to be part of it.
28:43Uh, especially in bringing an understanding of China to, to, to India's leadership.
28:48Uh, it's, it's a real pleasure and I appreciate the work that you've done over the years and
28:54continue to do on same conversations, uh, because, uh, these issues, the more we talk
28:59about it, uh, the more we can appreciate the nuances, the substance and can, uh, and can
29:06develop new, new ideas.
29:08Uh, talk is, uh, talk among people who really have understanding is very critical.
29:14Uh, and, uh, my compliments to you for what you're, you, you've created and it's a wonderful
29:19platform.
29:20Thank you, Dr. Kuhn.
29:21And, um, um, uh, my, my compliments to you for the, the tremendous amount of, uh, work
29:29that you've done on Russia, on, uh, China itself.
29:31Uh, you know, and, um, um, um, um, uh, one, one, one hopes that, um, uh, uh, the very, um,
29:40uh, lot of, uh, you know, very useful, uh, very significant details that, uh, that are
29:46in it are, are, you know, followed, are picked up by, by both, uh, India and China as far as
29:56we're concerned.
29:56Good.
29:58And as I said, I, this is not the end for me.
30:01It's the beginning.
30:02I look forward to helping to facilitate, uh, India-China understanding, uh, on both sides.
30:09Thank you, Dr. Kuhn.
30:11It's a pleasure, Colonel Platt.
30:13And I look forward to, uh, subsequent conversations.
30:17All the best to you.
30:18Okay.
30:19Likewise.
30:20Thank you, Dr. Kuhn.
30:20Thank you, Dr. Kuhn.
30:20Thank you, Dr. Kuhn.
30:20Thank you, Dr. Kuhn.
30:20Thank you, Dr. Kuhn.
Comments