00:08Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor.
00:17We are discussing today what is considered a fairly hot and current topic, India-US relations.
00:28Is there a need to review, to reset them?
00:35It is a pleasure to welcome Dr. Harenda Sekho, who has been focused on India-US relations
00:52and she has been part of some leading think tanks in the country.
00:58I will start this conversation by saying that India-US relations first got trumped since
01:09Operation Sindhu, which was in May 2025, a year and a half ago almost, and then got terrified.
01:24And very recently, United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to Jamnagar a few days ago,
01:36not just raised eyebrows and called surprise because he skipped the capital city of New Delhi completely,
01:45an unprecedented move for a United States Secretary of State visiting India.
01:52It was the first time a US Secretary of State visited India without holding a single planned meeting in New
02:01Delhi.
02:03And instead of traditional diplomatic talks in the capital, Rubio traveled straight to Mumbai and then directly to Jamnagar, Gujarat,
02:13where Mukesh Ambani and his family welcomed him and took him on a tour of the Reliance Industries' massive oil
02:24refining complex,
02:25the largest in the world, and also took him to the Reliance Vantara Animal Rescue Center and its Green Energy
02:34Giga factories.
02:39The United States Ambassador to India, Sergio Gaurat, who accompanied Rubio, said that India's imports of the US liquefied petroleum
02:50gas
02:51had surged from less than 10% to 67% in the past year, making the United States India's largest
03:01LPG supplier.
03:10Dr. Sekho, I request you to start off with your thoughts.
03:18Thank you so much, Colonel Bhatt, and thank you for having me on your show once again.
03:23You have rightly identified the three main issues in US-India relations.
03:29But going to your first point, see, there's no need for a total reset of US-India relations.
03:37At one level, they are working as planned and there is a continuity over there.
03:44But yes, there is a need for recalibration and of taking stock of where, you know, there are challenges which
03:54are coming up and what are the areas which are working well.
03:59Also, Sindhuur has been an inflection point, Operation Sindhuur.
04:04And I think it all started with Trump taking credit for having brokered a peace deal between India and Pakistan,
04:12Pakistan, which we always have maintained that Pakistan is a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan.
04:20And we will not have any third party mediation.
04:23And I think it kind of hurt his ego and it deprived him of a chance to make us take
04:31a claim for the Nobel Peace Prize.
04:33So, beginning with Sindhuur, what we have noticed is that Trump has built up a special relationship with the Pakistan
04:43Army chief, Asif Munir, who is his new best friend.
04:47He's hosted him twice at the White House for lunch, unprecedented for the so-called most powerful man in the
04:55world to call a Pakistan Army chief and host him to lunch.
04:59But I think it's a lot to do with the family business deals with Pakistan in cryptocurrency, etc.
05:06So, Trump, what we notice is, has become even more mercurial.
05:11He is a businessman first and conducts his foreign policy more from the standpoint of tariffs, as you've mentioned,
05:21and where he can make a quick buck, where he can make sure that his family benefits.
05:30And what he's actually done is he has attempted, he has very successfully challenged the established global order by challenging
05:41established partnerships.
05:44He has unleashed war at will and undermined the global order, which was established in the post-World War II
05:52period.
05:54During his first presidency, he made a lot of noise, but I think he stuck to the plan and did
06:00not really try to alter things.
06:02But his attack of Venezuela and capturing Maduro, you know, whatever he may be, but he is the ruler of
06:12the president of a sovereign country.
06:15So, you know, so he thinks the way he has attacked Iran, what he has tried to do in India's
06:21own neighborhood with China, we don't know what his policy is going to be.
06:26So, he and Xi Jinping have had two meetings, they are set to have a third one in the new
06:31year, so that China continues to remain a challenge for the United States, but we don't know.
06:38Trump seems quite keen to work out some kind of a relationship with Xi Jinping and, you know, have working
06:49economic integration,
06:52because he needs the rare earths and he needs the batteries for the electric car manufacturing, etc.
06:59He needs the semiconductor supply chain not to be disrupted because that is actually very crucial for the U.S.
07:08economy.
07:09Coming to Rubio's visit, it is surprising that he skips New Delhi completely and our foreign minister goes to Mumbai
07:19to meet him over there.
07:21And then it's more like a family relationship being revived with the Ammanis, which is a little surprising.
07:31But maybe the government was kept in the loop and he says this is for the Venezuelan oil to be
07:38refined in India.
07:39We do not know what are the parameters of this arrangement.
07:45Would India benefit economically?
07:48You know, what is the financial implications?
07:51We know nothing about it.
07:53There's nothing in the public domain.
07:55Is it going to be a corporate, you know, the reliance arrangement with the U.S. establishment?
08:02Or is it going to be some stake for the Indian government?
08:06It remains to be seen if anything comes out.
08:10But not just in international relations.
08:13Trump has also upset the apple cart within the United States and come out with certain policies which are very
08:21tough on India.
08:22Like the H-1B visas.
08:25Students are not going to get time to look for a job.
08:28They have to finish their degree.
08:30They cannot change the nature of their student visa and, you know, convert it into a work visa.
08:37So now all these things go to show a typical MAGA, you know, white arrangement to preserve America for Americans.
08:52And I think, you know, there's a feeling when you speak with interlocutors in Washington, D.C.
08:58And even with the Indian community there, they've, you know, there is some kind of a disenchantment amongst the white
09:06American.
09:07And I think Trump is cognizant of the fact that he's got a midterm election coming up in less than
09:14a fortnight from today.
09:15His ratings are at their lowest.
09:18The American economy is not growing as fast as he had hoped.
09:23The prices of diesel and other essential commodities have gone up.
09:28So can he retain the House and the Senate?
09:32That is critical for him because otherwise he ends up becoming a lame duck president.
09:39So I'm sure, you know, I can come back later with some more details in the conversation.
09:43But maybe you have, I mean, looking at you, I think you need to ask me a few questions.
09:51Dr. Sekho, you know, we are talking, it's today, the 26th of October.
09:59And when you are referring to a very sort of important period that's just a few days away, November.
10:10Right.
10:11It's exactly about a week.
10:12Maybe a lot of us are very eager to know what the outcome will be.
10:24I don't think there's any point of being very optimistic that, oh, this Trump is going to get fixed.
10:36I think it's better to be pessimistic and then, you know, whatever comes out, maybe, you know, considered as a
10:41unexpected and pleasant surprise, whatever.
10:44Because as things have, as he's been able to swing things so far, it's a little disturbing.
10:55Mind you, it's, we've had a, we've had a strong military relationship.
11:01That means, you know, their armed forces and the Indian armed forces have been jointly drilling together.
11:10And there is a lot of interaction, that interaction, interoperability, et cetera, that we've, you know, gone through.
11:17And when we come to know that he's, he's sacking, you know, his, his senior chiefs and that level of
11:30officers, then it, you know, it becomes a little more disturbing as to where the military relationship will go.
11:41Because, I mean, let's, I'm very, very clear about one thing that there is nothing that the US army can
11:52teach us.
11:54I'm not being, you know, very, you know, I'm not bragging, but it's a, it's a simple fact that there
12:06is absolutely nothing that the Indian army can teach, the US army can teach Indian army.
12:10Because the Indian army brings extensive hard-earned experience in high altitude mountain warfare, such as the, along the rugged
12:20Himalayan, Himalayas in Uttarakhand and in the insurgency terrorism ridden Jammu and Kashmir.
12:32Dents, which includes dense jungles and, you know, terrain in that altitude also.
12:40And in unarmed combatants, survival techniques, et cetera, there is so much that they can learn from us and have
12:47been learning, they've been very eager to learn from us.
12:49And as far as India's defense, you know, purchases is concerned, whatever they're selling to us is very highly priced.
13:04And it doesn't, you know, American defense platforms are widely seen as expensive and US exports are bound by strict
13:14legal frameworks, such as the international traffic in arms regulations, ITAR and tight end user monitoring clauses.
13:23At a time when we want, you know, at a time when we want, you know, to make in India.
13:28Look at, look at the Brahmos, the combination of Russia's Moscow River and India's great Brahmukutra.
13:39We've made what is considered the greatest weapon in the world today, the Brahmos missile.
13:47Anyway, the defense analysts and Indian military officials note that US has historically been conservative about sharing its most sensitive,
13:58closely guarded niche technologies, such as stealth or high-end jet engine secrets with non-tredial allies.
14:08However, some shifts have occurred, including agreements to manufacture specific components locally.
14:16There's, there's, there's, there's so much more that one, one can, but what, you know, what is now, is something
14:26that we need to look, go into is, you, you used a very correct term, recalibration.
14:36Do we need a recalibration?
14:39Do we need a recalibration, if not a review or, you know, reset?
14:44Now, let's also remember what is very, happened very recently about the visit to, you know, the United States defense
14:59and the Secretary of State's visit to Jamnagar.
15:03There's a great, there's a great, great plan that is up, you know, about in which India is being treated
15:10as a, as a, as a, as a great refining expert.
15:20Your comments?
15:23So, I think you've touched upon two important issues.
15:27I will first speak about the challenges and come on to the defense partnership.
15:33Now, when it comes to the challenges, I think there are three main challenges.
15:38One is the re-hyphenation with Pakistan.
15:41You know, they want to see everything with, through the Pakistan lens, which is Varisam and especially this post-Sindur
15:48development.
15:49Second area of concern is our alignment between, you know, in the Indian Ocean region.
15:58There is a challenge over there, which nobody is really talking because the U.S. keeps speaking about the Indo
16:04-Pacific.
16:05And the Indian Ocean region, where there is increased Chinese presence, which also stands, you know, gives an umbrella support
16:13to the Pakistan Navy over there.
16:16This is something which really should be of concern to India.
16:19And the United States does not want, it's trying to limit the role of France and Great Britain, because as
16:27it is, these European countries are busy with the Ukraine war and stuff like that.
16:32And also their own domestic economies are in quite a shambles.
16:37They have domestic challenges.
16:39So that is one area.
16:40And the third is Trump's threat of having, of imposing 100% tariffs on India for buying Russian oil.
16:48And then he does an about turn because he needs Russian oil for his own domestic consumption.
16:56He needs Russian diesel and the first consignment has gone.
16:59So he has put this act on hold for the next two months.
17:04And he says, we will watch and see what developments are.
17:07Now, is this just a temporary facade till he is through with the elections?
17:14And you rightly said, you know, Trump really does lead a very charmed life.
17:18And the thing to watch is that his 40% of that hardcore white male voters, they remain solidly behind
17:27Trump.
17:28These belong to the middle belt of the United States and they vote for Trump come what may.
17:34And that is a very important segment, which has brought him back to the White House a second time.
17:40And also there is tacit support for his policies.
17:46And he plays to the gallery.
17:48He says that America is for Americans.
17:51And, you know, even that Rubio statement about indentured labor, you know, targeting.
17:59So these are, you know, it shows America was always very transactional.
18:05I remember, you know, like even say 30 years back, we said that there are no free lunches with the
18:11Americans.
18:11But that has become even more stark in the past 18 months during the Trump second administration.
18:20But having said that and why I said that there is a need to recalibrate the three important elements,
18:28which could still make the U.S. a little serious about India is one is China.
18:37We have done very well by not falling into this trap of taking on, you know, of coming up with
18:44a very aggressive posture vis-a-vis China,
18:47be it in the Indo-Pacific, because we are very clear that we share a very long contested land border
18:54with China,
18:55which is challenging enough, you know, with what's happening in Arunachal right now.
18:59And we need to defuse that situation rather than opening another front on our neighborhood.
19:07And we know about the China support to Pakistan and where, you know, during Sindhu and all.
19:13And these are things which have been discussed.
19:15I've been to China three times in the last one year.
19:17And this has been discussed in conferences and various fora.
19:24But the Chinese being what they are, you know, they just keep quiet and not make any comment on that.
19:32So the China challenge is a very real challenge for the Americans.
19:36And the Chinese are very complacent.
19:38They say that America needs us more because they have the advantage, you know, the technical superiority.
19:47The U.S. does have the expertise, their laboratories and all.
19:54But when it comes to the new tech, new tech in biopharma and in AI, I think the Chinese have
20:01been working very quietly.
20:03And they have the mineral resources which the United States covets.
20:08So so that is one which the which makes the United States look at India as another democracy.
20:16But lately, I agree, you know.
20:19So one is that second is the Indo-Pacific.
20:23The U.S. presence is not being viewed as a very friendly presence over there by even the traditional quad
20:32partners.
20:33And if you notice, we have signed separate defense deals with Australia, with New Zealand.
20:40And the prime minister has done an outreach to the smaller Pacific islands in the India, in the Pacific Ocean.
20:49And America has watched this and the kind of especially the two defense deals with Australia and New Zealand.
20:58And also what we are doing with Japan.
21:00You know, the Japanese have shaken off their hesitation with of being dependent on the U.S.
21:08And also what we are doing with Taiwan.
21:11So I think we have a very robust Indo-Pacific policy of our own.
21:16And the U.S. we need the probably need the U.S. umbrella because they have the naval physical advantage.
21:22And so this is the other thing which makes the U.S.
21:27If I may please, you know, pause.
21:32As far as India's, you know, presence in the Indo-Pacific as it got named by God bless his soul
21:41Shinzo Abbey.
21:42Yes.
21:44Yes.
21:44And we today have a have a collection of the navies of 70 countries, over 70 countries who, you know,
21:56look forward to if that includes these big powers also.
22:00Right.
22:01Absolutely.
22:02Absolutely.
22:03Who want to, you know, interact with maritime forces, who want to deal with them, who want to make, you
22:08know, exercises and all with them.
22:11Because that gives them a, not only a, you know, we, the Indian Navy was greatly in demand.
22:20What we did during the tsunami was again a reminder to the world about how effective the, you know, maritime
22:29forces can be at a time.
22:31And also during COVID, you know, the medical diplomacy, which we did, and we gave medical supplies to countries like
22:44Fiji and Indonesia and all.
22:45So all that is looked upon in a very positive light.
22:49And the United States knows that this is India's, you know, soft power.
22:53And the smaller countries in the Indo-Pacific, they have a third alternative.
22:58You know, they don't have to make a choice between China and the United States.
23:02So they have an alternative.
23:04And that is why India is gaining a lot of traction in East Asia.
23:09And that brings me to your third point, which you had raised about US-India defense cooperation.
23:17Now, over there, you know, America has not given us any core technology.
23:22And there I have also, you know, do we really have the capacity to absorb that 10 to 15%
23:29of the niche technology?
23:32Does India, has India reached that stage is one question.
23:37And secondly, you know, unfortunately, we have received a lot of arms and weapons through the foreign military sales route,
23:45the direct sales military to military.
23:47But I'm glad India is now diversifying.
23:52We are looking at, we've signed a defense deal with Germany, you know, for, and we are trying to re
24:00-energize the defense partnership with Russia, which will be challenging because of its involvement with Ukraine.
24:08So, but we know that the Russian…
24:10No, but you touched a very important aspect.
24:15There are 80 countries that we are exporting weapons systems to.
24:22Absolutely.
24:23You know, so that's also something that Mr. Trump may not be very happy about, but that's, we should not
24:32absolutely give a damn about that.
24:34But there, the fact remains that in Sindhuur we proved that what a lot of us, you know, analysts and
24:45commentators used to keep saying, we must do this, we must have this, we must not do this, we must
24:52be over, you can say, a decade.
24:56Atma Nirvata was not just a parrot call. It was something which we actually implemented. And we proved it in
25:06those 88 hours of Operation Sindhu.
25:08Absolutely.
25:09And you're right, you know, the physical josh of our men in uniform. I mean, it's unmatched. It is unmatched
25:19what they do.
25:20That, of course, it goes without saying. It got realized in the first and second world wars by not only
25:28the allied countries, but the Axis countries also that we heard about the best of our armies in the world.
25:41So, and also, you know, India's strong point is that Europe also is looking at India as a bridge between
25:50Europe and the Indo Pacific.
25:53They want India because they realized that that is a resource rich area. And the Germans had come up with
26:00the Indo-Pacific white paper back in 2018. So the Germans, the French and all because they need to Canada,
26:08you know, it's a Pacific country itself.
26:10And what we are doing, the Prime Minister is going to Canada. So the US has actually opened up many
26:17opportunities for India. And it is for us to seize those opportunities rather than being dependent only on one unpredictable
26:26country.
26:28You know, and I think the US Trump is actually sowing the seeds, you know, because there are other countries
26:34which are becoming very distrustful of the United States and its policies.
26:39It has not just with India, but even the transatlantic partnership with Great Britain, which was one of its strongest
26:47relationships, is under stress. Its European relationship, the NATO powers.
26:54And also, you know, but there is no certainty that 2029 would bring a senor voice in the United States.
27:01What if within the Republican Party, it is somebody who is more rigid than even Trump, becomes the president, we
27:10don't know, the Europeans are worried about that development.
27:13And also the American commitment to fulfill what they promise. You know, do they really have the wherewithal? I mean,
27:25are they entering this post-World War I era of withdrawal, you know, after the Great Depression, the 1920s and
27:33all?
27:39Yes, yes, yes.
28:03They killed their senior leaders.
28:05Oh no, they got their worst chop ever.
28:08And I think Israel is also worried because, I mean, you can't do war mongering. I have a lot of
28:14sympathy for the Israelis and the Jews.
28:16The US has lost 80 aircraft.
28:20Right.
28:21And a number of vessels also.
28:24I know. And it's nowhere in the... So, you know, the Iranian... There was an Iranian delegation which we met,
28:31they were here in Delhi, about...
28:33three weeks back. And they are very clear that we can go, we are used to hardships. We will go
28:38back to and live in our caves. But we will bring America to its knees. You know, I think Trump
28:44miscalculated that the Iranians is a very proud old civilizational race.
28:50And you cannot humiliate them.
28:53No doubt. No doubt.
28:54And what has happened?
28:57Dr. Bhavija, Harinder, there's one thing, you know, we don't have much time, but I'd like your comment on this,
29:05which is very, very recent, you know, which relates to this...
29:10...Rubio's visit. While no formal agreement has been signed yet between Reliance Industries and the US government regarding Venezuelan oil,
29:21though Rubio has initiated high-level talks to encourage Reliance to refine more...
29:26...Venezuelan...
29:28...Venezuelan crude and explore direct oil production in Venezuela. There is also...
29:35The Trump administration has heavily promoted a $300 billion oil refinery project in Brown Zone, Texas, backed by India's Reliance
29:48Industries, framing it as a victory that attracts widespread attention, prestige and significance for foreign investment and a strategic tool
30:00to address the US-India trade deficit.
30:04Washington leveraging India's status as a refining superpower, if you please, is not a surprise to energy experts, but rather
30:14a calculated move in pragmatic energy diplomacy.
30:19I agree with you because, you know, what I mentioned that US policy is becoming even more transactional than it
30:27ever was, but I'm sure there will be some kind of due diligence which Reliance would also do.
30:32And you're right, you said that no agreement has been signed as yet, because just a few months back he
30:40also got the SR, the Ruyas of SR, to agree to building a steel plant. So he's desperate for Indian
30:48investment.
30:49But will we be able to leverage this to get a better deal for our personnel? In India is something
30:57which would Reliance rise to the occasion or would it look for its own profits? This is something for the
31:03government to decide.
31:06And, you know, the Ambani's as nationalists, would they want to just give everything to the United States, make it
31:14a one-way ticket? Or can we use this as a bargaining chip?
31:18And, you know, because even the H-1B visa holders over the years have not been able to remit their
31:26social security money. They've not been able to get, there are a lot of grey areas where the US has
31:33been holding back.
31:35So would we be able to, I mean, why should, I mean, I frankly speaking, I'm a great admirer, used
31:42to be a great admirer of the US liberal system and how it was the architect of the modern world
31:48post-World War II.
31:50But what is happening in recent years is very worrisome. And you cannot, it cannot be a one-way traffic.
31:58The US, if it expects certain concessions, it needs to fulfill its side of the bargain. It has to be
32:08a two-way traffic. And that is for a government and for a corporate leadership to ensure that the country
32:15benefits.
32:18Very well brought out, Dr. Shekho. And I must thank you for, we've covered a lot of ground. There's so
32:26much more. And I look forward to, you know, approaching you again for a part two of this.
32:37Thank you very much. And all the best.
32:40Thank you so much for having me. Okay. Good night. Bye-bye.
