00:10For a region of nearly 2 billion people sharing rivers, monsoons and increasingly disasters,
00:17climate change is no longer just an environmental concern.
00:20It's fast becoming a question of survival, stability and security.
00:24Glaciers are retreating, water is turning into a point of tension between neighbours
00:29and cities are running out of power during heatwaves.
00:32Today, we are going to unpack why climate change might actually be South Asia's biggest strategic threat
00:39and what a region this fractured can realistically do about it.
00:43Joining me for this conversation is Anusrita Dutta, a climate researcher and columnist
00:49with experience in political research, analysis, ESG research and energy policy.
00:54Thank you so much, Ma'am, for joining us today.
00:59Thanks a lot for having me here.
01:01It's really a pleasure.
01:03Okay, so let's start.
01:05So how serious is the threat of climate change to South Asia, really?
01:10Like, what kind of consequences are we talking about for a region of 2 billion people?
01:17Now, if you see the South Asian region, like, everything is interconnected.
01:22Like, as I have also mentioned in my article, like, there is a difficult asymmetry which is happening over here,
01:30particularly in the cases of, you know, shared water.
01:34Like, for instance, Pakistan, Bangladesh, they are dependent on downstream flow.
01:39So India is half dependent on upstream and half on downstream.
01:43Then Nepal and Tibetan regions, they are also having a different symmetry.
01:48So what right now, like, in the spree of war and everything, what is getting overlooked is climatic concerns.
01:55So which I have mentioned, particularly in the South Asian region,
01:58because we are particularly overlooking everything which is happening interconnectedly in the regions,
02:03which is concerning the region's stability as a whole.
02:07Yeah.
02:08Yes.
02:09Thank you for that.
02:10And, like, like, connected to this, like, you have written about glacier loss going up to 50 to 65%
02:17under high emission scenarios in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region.
02:22But I think what people don't quite grasp is what that means downstream.
02:26Like, does that mean the Indus and Gangas actually carry less water over time?
02:30Or is the bigger problem that the water becomes unpredictable too much at once and then not enough?
02:38I'll go for the second.
02:39Like, the water becomes very much unpredictable with this glacier loss specifically.
02:44Like, there is a, like, chronology in this case, like, about which I would like to talk about.
02:50Like, as this glacial retreats and all are happening across, like, as the unpredictable river flows are increasing,
02:58like, there is a greater dependence on dams and storage.
03:01And as a result, there is a fear that, you know, that upstream countries, they might control.
03:07Like, this causes a political and bureaucratic issues in the meanwhile.
03:12Like, South Asian region, we are dealing with it quite prominently.
03:15And that is quite evident, like, in our day-to-day, what comes in the news and everything.
03:21Yeah.
03:22Okay.
03:23Thank you so much.
03:23That unpredictable angle is actually very interesting.
03:26Because I think treaties like the Indus Water Treaty were built, assuming a fairly stable river.
03:31So, that actually makes sense.
03:33So, if you had to rewrite it today with climate in mind, what's one thing you would actually add or
03:39change there if you had to do it?
03:42I will add, like, I won't change anything much, I will say.
03:47Like, what I feel that particularly concerning in this region, there's a lot which needs to be worked on.
03:55Particularly in the context of water sharing.
03:59Like, if you see the complexity on this.
04:02And, like, as a result, not only the water sharing, like, there's everything interconnected.
04:07Like, if you see there's any kind of climatic shock, the agricultural productivity decreases.
04:12Like, India, for instance, India, Pakistan, we have seen this instance for quite long.
04:17And not only that, like, there are several, like, threads of, like, climatic concerns which comes meanwhile, which has to
04:26be dealt with currently in this scenario.
04:29Yeah.
04:31Yeah, right.
04:32So, like, what it actually isn't just, like, an India-Pakistan story either.
04:36Is it, like, China is building hydropower upstream on the Brahmaputra and India sits upstream of Bangladesh on that same
04:42river?
04:42So, yes, India's anxiety about China's dam is a bit ironic given it's doing the same thing to Bangladesh.
04:51Definitely, it is ironic.
04:54But then, if you see, like, India is playing a strategic game over here in both the sides.
05:01And, like, if you see it from the angle of, like, how the country is trying to balance a strategic
05:08measure, it is very much impactful.
05:11Because, in case of Indus Water Treaty, the treaty has survived a lot.
05:17Like, talking about cross-border terrorism and other conflicts with Pakistan, India has come to this decision of treaties' advance
05:26just in 2025.
05:28And not only that, like, as this Brahmaputra's context, like, upstream it is controlled in the Tibetan region and downstream
05:36it goes to Bangladesh.
05:37Bangladesh, while this Ganga, like, treaty with Bangladesh, it is going to be renewed in December.
05:45And India is already having quite conflict, which is unavoidable right now.
05:50Like, I wouldn't like to say about it specifically.
05:53I'm sure, like, you know, regions across South Asia, they will understand that other conflicts shouldn't be intermingled with this
06:01conflict.
06:01And I would like to say in this platform, I feel that, you know, it might reach an impactful measure
06:07of audience that India's measures should be, you know, very much seen with a clear eye, without any kind of
06:16other strings attached.
06:18Like, why is India doing this?
06:20Bangladesh should, you know, stop this water flow instead of just because of this.
06:25China should do this.
06:27So, India is trying a lot to balance within this region.
06:30And that is quite commendable.
06:31Because if you see, compared to the other part of the world, India's, like, location is one of the most
06:37conflict zone, like, yeah.
06:40Definitely.
06:41Yeah, okay.
06:41So, like, if the current arrangements, like, treaties, bilateral deals, aren't built for this, what would actually work?
06:48Like, if you have argued that regional framework for climate risk in South Asia at all, what's realistic here?
06:54Reviving something like SARC, which we did, or working through BIMSTEC, or, like, starting a completely fresh start?
07:01Like, what should be our approach to this?
07:04I think so, in this case, first of all, the regions in the South Asian regions, they should come together.
07:10As I mentioned about these two platforms, not restricting only to these two platforms.
07:15This region should come together.
07:17They should develop a regional framework.
07:20Right now, the measures are more as, you know, like, once a disaster comes, after that prevention, there is nothing,
07:28like, you know, proper framework, as in pre-prediction, and then working on it.
07:34As I have mentioned in my article also, militarization can help right now.
07:39But for how much times?
07:41Once any disaster is occurring, like, the country is sending its military troops and all, but their deployment is designed
07:48and, you know, meant for some other purpose.
07:50So, I think, so, at this point of time, the South Asian region countries should come together, and they should
07:57build a regional framework in order to predict, in order to find out ways, like, how they can, you know,
08:05how they can avoid any kind of conflicts in this region in terms of climatic shock, which can be a
08:11security concern tomorrow.
08:14True, that's a great take.
08:16So, like, so, like, let's talk about the human cost for a second, because I think that get lost in
08:22the policy conversation.
08:23So, like, there's a projection of 40 million people being displaced across South Asia by 2050.
08:29So, which of the region cities do you think is the least prepared to absorb that kind of influx and
08:35why?
08:38I will say, like, first city which comes in my mind is Delhi, to be very frank.
08:44Like, Delhi is not, at its current form, Delhi is not in its shape, like, to welcome anyone from outside.
08:51And when any kind of migration occurs, like, it becomes a responsibility for the government to, you know, see, like,
09:00if also, you know, they are deciding to deport the, deport those who are migrating.
09:06It's completely different.
09:07And so, I don't think, so, in case of India, like, you know, like, cities like Kolkata, then Mumbai, like,
09:15this, you know, like, you know, prime cities are completely in a blockage situation.
09:21Like, they shouldn't be, you know, they shouldn't be disturbed at all.
09:25Then, coming to Bangladesh, Chittagom is one place, which I will say, which is, currently, they are facing a lot
09:32of migration.
09:33So, Chittagom is also not in a shape.
09:36And in Pakistan, like, I don't know whether to say, like, a lot of cities in Pakistan is facing the
09:42same.
09:43Yeah.
09:44Yes.
09:45Okay.
09:47That's, generally, which is very true, because, again, that is, like, there is, like, no doubt about it.
09:52That Delhi is not ready, given the situations, like, whenever winter comes, the whole pollution thing and everything, Delhi is
09:58actually not ready for this.
10:01Okay.
10:01So, coming to the last one for this conversation, and this feels urgent because it is already happening.
10:07So, like, India's power demand crossed 250 gigawatt this summer during the heat wave and the grid head.
10:14So, how close did that actually come to failing?
10:17And what's the tipping point we should be switching off?
10:22Um, that is, I must say, close to failing, obviously.
10:26And a tipping point as such, at this point of time, there is nothing as, you know, traditional tipping point,
10:34I can say.
10:35Because, you know, the climate change, we have to monitor in future times.
10:40Like, you know, how the climate change is affecting and everything.
10:43So, yeah, 250 gigawatt is quite concerning, you know, figure.
10:49But I think, so, India should handle this thing.
10:53Like, India should find out ways and measures in which, you know, they can make, you know, resistance measures proactive
10:59and they can deal with this power outrage issues.
11:02Because power and electricity is also another concern in this region, South Asia.
11:08Yeah.
11:09True.
11:10Okay, thank you so much.
11:12This has been such a clarifying conversation.
11:14Thank you so much for breaking all of this down to us.
11:17That's it for the episode of SAM Conversations.
11:19See you in the next one.
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