00:00Oklahoma at home taking on UTEP with a 50 and a half total.
00:04Look at the total.
00:05Yeah, look at this.
00:06Give me that spread again.
00:07What's the spread?
00:0840 and a half, and we're looking at a 50 and a half total.
00:11They're going to be crazy.
00:1350 and a half.
00:14Insane work.
00:15So, actually, I have a pretty good stat that a good friend of mine,
00:20Ralph Michaels, over at WagerTalk, had given me over the last five years.
00:24Tom, when you have a game that is in the spread of 35 points or more,
00:31and they're within two touchdowns of the actual total,
00:35and in this case, you're telling me I don't even think we're 10 points apart, right?
00:3942 and a half and 51, so we're only a nine-point difference.
00:43Over 66% to the over in those games.
00:48So, when you have those kinds of monster favorites,
00:53the idea that the other team won't score, not the case.
00:59Those games go over.
01:01So, 51, 51 and a half, I would only look to go to you over for the same reason, Tom.
01:08There is zero.
01:09I believe OU plays Michigan next week.
01:12What incentive do they have being up 38 to nothing at the break
01:16to go into the second half and play anybody of any value whatsoever?
01:20They don't.
01:21They'll likely cover it, but you are likely getting more than 51 and a half points here.
01:27At least over the last five years, 66% plus to the over.
01:32That's good enough for me because I think it makes total sense, too.
01:36Okay.
01:37So, it's important to know what you're saying.
01:39So, when the total is, you said, 50 or higher for this or 45 or higher?
01:44When the spreads are 35 plus or more, it's within two touchdowns of the total.
01:51Oh, okay.
01:52Within two touchdowns of the total.
01:54So, in this case, we have nine, right?
01:56We're a difference of nine.
01:57We have nine, ten, depending on where you're shopping.
02:00Yes.
02:01There you go.
02:02Then that's an overplay.
02:04Because you're expecting, what is their team total, UTEP?
02:07Three?
02:08I think that's a good question.
02:11It might be six and a half.
02:13Yeah.
02:14So, yes.
02:15The bottom line is, overs in these spots.
02:19There's no way your team should be laying 40.
02:22How much?
02:23Three and a half.
02:25Yeah.
02:25There you go.
02:25So, and that's why the overs hit, because the undervaluing of the opposing team in the second half is over
02:33the top here.
02:34I promise you, OU will be playing guys that don't even have names or numbers on their jersey in the
02:41fourth quarter, Tom.
02:42They will not, under any circumstances, be leaving anybody in a game they are up 48 to nothing on.
02:49Which could very well be the score, by the way, by the time we get to the fourth quarter.
02:54So, is this one of the, I don't want to say betting system, I don't want to put a name
02:59to it, but is this one of the things that you are routinely looking at early season, knowing that a
03:03lot of these bigger teams are playing non-conference games before we get into heavy conference schedules?
03:10This is usually when you get those kinds of spreads, right?
03:14And occasionally you'll get them down, I think, right about midway and October.
03:19And because these are teams that are getting paid to come and get the snot beat out of them, because
03:23we don't have a preseason in college football, like UMass.
03:27Exactly it.
03:28The only problem is, OU is not going to be one of those teams on upset alert.
03:33And over the last five years, that's the trend.
03:36But I like trends like that, because they make sense, given the state of where we're at.
03:42But same reason why I like betting first halves on big favorites, because I know coming in the second half,
03:49there will be nobody, especially, Tom.
03:51I mean, look, OU has got Michigan on deck here.
03:54You don't think they're looking ahead just a little bit?
03:56They are not leaving anybody out on the field in the second half that can jeopardize anything.
04:02And if you're UTEP, really, UTEP, you're not going to score a touchdown, right?
04:07And by the way, a touchdown might be the only thing we need to get this thing over.
