00:00Michigan versus Oklahoma.
00:03What a game this could be.
00:06Really, all of the results on the table are fascinating.
00:10An Oklahoma blowout, close game.
00:13I don't really think anyone expects Michigan is capable of blowing them out,
00:17but, hey, who knows?
00:20I have to, though, turn the clock back a little bit here
00:25and ask a question that I do think most people agree with the answer on
00:33of just, you know, hey, should Michigan have beat Western Michigan?
00:38Because that is, it seems, you know, cut and dry to me, Dave.
00:45I understand that the Big Ten randomly turned into the ACC,
00:49and they're like, yeah, we have all this replay footage we can show everybody.
00:52See, they said there was a second left, and it's just like, okay,
00:57I've never seen the clock be different from the game and the stadium,
01:03and I'm not saying that they cheated intentionally.
01:06I am saying they got it wrong, okay?
01:09I think that that, like, I'm very comfortable saying they got it wrong,
01:14and I think ultimately the number here may not be all too different
01:22if they don't get a second chance at the Hail Mary,
01:25but Michigan's chances to make the college football playoff
01:29are different without that Hail Mary.
01:33So where did you land on the, you know, two cracks at its situation here?
01:39I said it on Sunday morning.
01:41There's a big difference between conspiracy and incompetence,
01:45and, you know, everyone likes to shout, conspiracy, fix,
01:48they change this, change that, because it took them too long
01:50to come out and admit what had happened,
01:52and then when they admitted what happened, it was a BS story,
01:55and then they had to change it the next day.
01:57Purely simple, the Big Ten blew it.
01:59The officials blew it.
02:00The replay booth blew it.
02:01They had this other camera they were using that nobody knew about.
02:04They didn't explain it well.
02:05It's incompetence.
02:06We see it all the time with referees and conference officials.
02:09They just messed up.
02:10They communicated it poorly, et cetera.
02:12Nobody fixed anything.
02:14The refs aren't sitting there with a Michigan money line ticket.
02:16Like, it just was, they messed up.
02:18You see it.
02:19People make mistakes.
02:20I look at it as, well, now Michigan, you know who they are.
02:24You saw them struggle 99.9% of the game versus a Western Michigan team.
02:30That is good, but shouldn't be in the same ballpark in Ann Arbor of this team,
02:34and I do think it cost them a chance at the college football playoff if things continue.
02:38They dropped out of the rankings for the most part.
02:40The narrative, and call it what it is, like, this is a committee that is going to put together the
02:45playoff.
02:46That narratives are important.
02:47You got outplayed by Western Michigan.
02:49I don't really care if there's a W or an L in the column, because at the end of the
02:52day,
02:53it's not going to matter.
02:54Michigan is an 8-4 team that's not going to be in the playoff.
02:56But should they go out there and go 10-2, the committee will look at them as a 9-3
03:01team,
03:01and I think it will hurt them if it comes down to it.
03:04But ultimately, I don't think so.
03:05Now, you look forward to this game.
03:08I was on Oklahoma from the beginning.
03:10I didn't think Michigan was a good team.
03:11I gave out under 8.5 win total earlier this summer.
03:15Their offense has struggled.
03:18This is not a new thing.
03:20This has been going on for two years with Underwood.
03:22It's not a very good offensive team.
03:25And, oh, by the way, you're going up against one of the best defenses in football,
03:30Oklahoma, ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense, total defense, sacks,
03:34tackles for losses, and run defense.
03:36I had them week one under 51.5, and it was a 51-0 on that Friday night.
03:42I'm scared we survived.
03:44You have a really good defense versus a really poor offense.
03:48I'm going with my best bet this week.
03:51It's not a side or total.
03:52I'm going with the Michigan team total.
03:54Under 19.5, I was able to get at FanDuel.
03:58It actually dropped to 18.5 last night.
04:00It opened at 17.5.
04:02It surprised me it went the other way.
04:03I just don't see this Michigan team, who has held in less than 250 yards
04:09and one touchdown on their first drive versus Western Michigan,
04:12not Ohio State, not Miami, Western Michigan, scoring 20 points versus Oklahoma.
04:18They only scored 13 last year in this matchup.
04:22They only scored nine against Ohio State.
04:24They had less than 300 yards versus Oklahoma last year.
04:28One touchdown in that game, by the way, was a 75-yard touchdown.
04:33That's 75 of their 288 yards.
04:35I'd say Underwood was awful, but it's just normal for him.
04:39Kevin, why should I think Michigan's going to score more than 19.5 points?
04:43I just don't see it, and that is my favorite play of the week.
04:46Yeah, I do think it makes a lot of sense.
04:48I think some of the – this is something I like to do, right?
04:53I like to buy low.
04:55I kind of like to put the market or the odds makers against themselves, right?
05:01And, you know, you'll hear me throughout the season mention spread math,
05:04but this isn't even really that.
05:06It's – you know, this is a game of the year.
05:08We all know what the look-ahead line was, which was about Michigan minus one and a half.
05:12So when you flip the number by a touchdown, it's going to lead to buyback.
05:17So when you flip the number by a touchdown, it's going to lead to buyback.
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