00:00A mixed bank holiday and a wetter start to autumn. It looks like the exceptional heat and dry weather from
00:06the summer has finally come to an end. Whilst it's not going to be wall to wall rain through the
00:11next 10 days, there is a bit more to think about in the forecast. And that's thanks to the return
00:16of Atlantic mobility, something we often see as we head through the autumn months. And that's thanks to the jet
00:23stream, which is this pink colour here you can see on the chart. And it's much stronger through the rest
00:27of this week, developing this area of low pressure.
00:30That moves across the UK quite slowly. But then we see a change through the weekend to transitioning to more
00:35fast moving low pressure systems sweeping across the country through the bank holiday weekend. And that theme does continue into
00:42next week as well. So that means a more changeable picture throughout the bank holiday picture throughout the bank holiday
00:48weekend. For the time being, though, through the rest of this week, we've got some quite slow moving rain and
00:54thunderstorms that will bring some intense downpours to parts of England and Wales in particular through Thursday.
01:00Wherever you are, it's going to be a mild, a warm and humid day, particularly across more southern areas, temperatures
01:06climbing towards the mid 20s. Even in the north, actually, we could see the lower 20s. It's going to be
01:11humid by day and night throughout the next few days. It does turn a little bit fresher into the weekend,
01:17though.
01:18Now, this slow moving area of low pressure stays with us as we head into Friday as well. And this
01:23area of rain is likely to sit across more northern areas. Parts of the southwest, southwest Wales, as well as
01:30southwest England could also see some showery, thundery outbreaks of rain.
01:33It looks like Northern Ireland is most likely to be drier. And there will likely be some drier interludes, particularly
01:39for more central areas where we're a little bit further away from that low pressure.
01:43But for most areas of the UK, there is at least a chance of a heavy downpour through Friday. Some
01:49of these bring the continued risk of thunderstorms that we've had through Wednesday and Thursday.
01:54It's still going to be on the warmer side through Friday as well. Still relatively humid, but we're starting to
02:00bring in fresher air from the Atlantic as we head towards the bank holiday weekend, which starts, of course, on
02:06Saturday.
02:07And we will see a fresh area of low pressure move in for Saturday. That's likely to introduce a more
02:13persistent spell of rain in from the south and west through Saturday daytime.
02:18The timings are a little bit uncertain, so that's one to watch. If you do have plans through Saturday, it
02:24will likely push through further north and eastwards through the day.
02:28So most of us will see some rainfall. The winds will start to pick up as well across the southwest
02:33around this area of low pressure, squeezing through the English Channel as well.
02:37So potentially some quite strong winds in the southeast too on Saturday afternoon, but also some brighter, drier spells.
02:44So it's worth keeping an eye on the forecast to see when your drier spell is likely if you're planning
02:50on getting out in that drier weather.
02:52Now we see the next low pressure push in for Sunday. So a bit of respite between these spells of
02:58wet weather on between Saturday and Sunday.
03:00But it's likely that we'll see the most persistent rain where we're closer to this area of low pressure on
03:06Sunday, which is most likely to be up to the northwest.
03:08Northern Ireland, northwest Scotland probably seeing the most prolonged, long-lived spells of wet weather.
03:14Elsewhere, though, anywhere is at risk of a heavy downpour through Sunday, potentially quite thundery as well.
03:20And we could see some more intense rainfall push up from the near continent into the south and east as
03:26well.
03:26It's going to be a relatively warm day. Temperatures quite close to average in the low 20s quite widely.
03:32But it's not going to be quite as warm overnight.
03:34Now this area of low pressure that moves in on Sunday will likely deepen into Monday.
03:39And there is a chance we could see some quite windy weather through the bank holiday Monday, predominantly for more
03:44northern areas.
03:45But I think it will likely be a relatively breezy day for the UK as a whole.
03:50So that may affect plans if you're outside this weekend at a festival or in a tent.
03:54That is something to keep in mind. The winds are going to be a lot stronger than they have been
03:58recently or through the summer as a whole.
04:01And then that sets us up for the first week of meteorological autumn, which of course starts on the 1st
04:07of September, with low pressure up to the north and higher pressure down to the south.
04:12This is the most likely pressure pattern for the 1st of September, 43% chance, which is pretty high at
04:18this time lead.
04:19And the other scenarios are looking pretty similar as well.
04:23So with low pressure up to the north, high pressure down to the south, that means westerly winds, which is
04:28a pretty average wind direction temperature wise.
04:30It means it wouldn't be particularly hot, but also not particularly cold.
04:34And it does mean that wetter weather is more likely across western areas.
04:38You can see here the focus with that low pressure being up to the north.
04:41Northwestern areas of the UK would probably see wetter than average weather.
04:45The rest of the UK is not coloured up here because probably we'd see pretty typical rainfall for the start
04:52of September, which is definitely wetter than it has been lately.
04:55Then as we move into Wednesday the 2nd of September, we look at a few different scenarios here.
05:01The most likely, again, very similar pattern with that low to the north, high pressure to the south.
05:06But also we could see that low pressure a little bit more centre, a bit further south, bringing more predominantly
05:12wet weather across the rest of the UK.
05:14All that high pressure could shift a little bit further north, bringing some drier weather.
05:20And the differences between these scenarios is really the trend for the week.
05:23I think much of the week we'll see low pressure up to the north, high pressure down to the south.
05:28Some days we could see some dry interludes if we see that high pressure pushing up a little bit further
05:33north.
05:34And for Thursday, the 3rd of September, you can see the most likely once again is a very similar pattern.
05:39But we've got a very similar set ups for the 2 most, the 2nd and 3rd most likely scenarios as
05:46well.
05:47So the trend through the week is pretty similar.
05:50Some days a little bit drier than others.
05:52We're likely to see the wettest weather across more northern and western areas.
05:57And this does summarise all of that.
05:59This is from ECMWF, the European Long Range Forecast.
06:02And this is the pressure anomaly for the whole of the first week of September.
06:07The tealy greens here show you low pressure centred up to the north.
06:11It's kind of dominating the weather across much of the UK.
06:13But the pinks coming in here at the bottom show high pressure will be dominant across parts of northwestern Europe.
06:20And that influence will likely spread up to more southern areas of the UK from time to time.
06:25So we're not expecting a total washout through next week at all.
06:29We are expecting a lot more rain than we've seen recently, which I assume is good news.
06:35But it does mean that we could also see some drier spells, also some slightly warmer spells across more southern
06:41areas in particular.
06:42How does that translate to rainfall?
06:44Well, this is how the rainfall compares to average for the time of year.
06:47So 4th September, it does actually look like a wetter than average week.
06:51With the wettest weather to the north and west where we're closer to that low pressure.
06:56So pretty climatologically average weather with wettest weather across the northwest, driest weather to the south and east.
07:03But that doesn't mean it's going to be entirely dry in the south and east.
07:06It does look like we will see at least some spells of wet weather across more south and eastern areas.
07:12But with wetter weather dominating to the north and west, if we do see any fronts lasting for a while,
07:18becoming slow moving, we could see some impacts from the rainfall.
07:21But it's a bit too early to put any details on that.
07:24But it's certainly something we'll be keeping an eye on.
07:26Then what happens beyond that into the first weekend of September?
07:31There's still quite a bit to play for.
07:32But we start to see the balance between low pressure and high pressure become a little bit more evenly matched
07:39as we head into the second week of September.
07:41So we could start to see high pressure building up from the south, becoming a little bit more dominant.
07:47But equally, that low pressure could remain more dominant, which is pretty much more typical for this time of year.
07:53So keeping an eye on that as we move into the second week of September, at least the first weekend
07:57of September, the end of this 10-day period.
08:00And this is what that means for temperatures.
08:01Obviously, we've had an exceptional summer temperature-wise.
08:05That is coming to an end.
08:06And our temperatures are falling back down to average throughout next week.
08:11It's been quite a warm week this week, despite the increased rainfall, the increased cloud.
08:15It's been pretty humid.
08:16We're definitely going to lose that feel through this weekend.
08:19You can see here this is London, somewhere in the southeast, which shows you the trend for generally most southern
08:25areas and at least the southeastern area.
08:28You can see that trend down to temperatures being quite close to average through the bank holiday weekend and into
08:34the start of next week.
08:35A very similar trend up to the north.
08:38This is for Glasgow, just somewhere representing somewhere further north and west for you.
08:42You can see that trend also as we head to the bank holiday Monday, much closer to average.
08:46Then through next week, the more northwestern spot follows the average line a bit more closely.
08:52There's still quite good confidence.
08:53You can see these bars are not particularly wide, which shows it's not a huge amount of spread.
08:58That spread does increase as we head into week two here, which is very normal as you as what you
09:03get when you do longer range forecasting.
09:06But for more southeastern areas, we start to see that spread increase a little bit earlier.
09:10And that's just where that balance between the high and low pressure could come in and be at play a
09:15little bit more across more southern areas.
09:17So we could see some warmer weather at times across more southern areas when we see any of those drier
09:22days.
09:22But we're not looking at any prolonged hot weather for the first week of September at this stage.
09:28It's looking much more typical for autumn, which I hope is good news after a very prolonged summer of hot
09:35weather.
09:35We will, of course, be looking at all of our summer statistics throughout next week as well in our deep
09:40dive.
09:40So make sure you check that out if that is something you've got your eye on.
09:43But thanks very much for joining me.
09:44I'll see you again soon.
09:45Bye-bye.
