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00:00I'm Mike Shope. Thanks for listening. With me now is one of the top analysts in fantasy football and a
00:05good friend, Theo Gremminger from now Roto-Wire.
00:10Theo recently made the move to Roto-Wire, which we're excited about.
00:13Theo has given us much great fantasy advice over the years, but perhaps unlike every other appearance he's made on
00:21this show,
00:21today I will be writing down his thoughts because he and I are drafting tonight in the FFPC main event.
00:29And I turn on my TV last night. There's Theo drafting in a big tournament.
00:34I check out my phone this afternoon. There he is again.
00:37I kind of feel – I have a pretty good feel for you right now, I think, going into tonight.
00:41Yeah, I'm looking forward to it. We need four brave souls who want to go head-to-head against Mike
00:47Shope and I in an FFPC main event.
00:50There's still four spots left if anybody wants to put their money where their mouth is and beat us in
00:55the draft.
00:55But, Mike, I think we're scaring off some people. It will definitely fill, but you can check us out.
01:01We're going to be streaming that live on Roto-Wire YouTube at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
01:07What pick do you hope to get, Mike?
01:10Well, I want to ask you the same question, but I definitely don't want to be on the extreme ends
01:16because, as I've said many times, I like to go against somebody if they've got their quarterback or tight end,
01:22whatever it is.
01:23I want to have somebody behind us so that I can use some strategy there.
01:28I think the middle is fine.
01:29I mean, the middle is where you can get value when guys slip.
01:33So, for the most part, the closer to the middle, the happier LB.
01:38What about you?
01:39I'm open-minded.
01:41I drafted from the 1-2 turn last night, and you do run into, like, some weird areas where you're
01:47sort of hopeful the guy will fall
01:48as opposed to, like, thrilled about all of your options.
01:52I think that the 1-0-3 is a lot of fun right now because you get access to, potentially,
01:58Jamar Chase.
01:58You get that wide receiver one overall.
02:00And then I think there's really strong value at the beginning of the third round as well.
02:051-0-4 is also great.
02:07I like the idea that we could take a Bowers in this draft.
02:11But I'm open-minded to pretty much any spot.
02:15FFPC gives you a little bit of flexibility with the two flexes and the tight end premium scoring.
02:20So, I'll be confident wherever we are.
02:23But, yeah, like, I'm with you.
02:25That 4-5 range for me feels like a very, very high potential outcome.
02:30Is there a player, and maybe I should just say I'm thinking about Puka Nakua for this,
02:36is there a player in the first round where you're sort of hoping not to have to make a decision?
02:42I mean, I do this every year.
02:44For me, it's probably Christian McCaffrey.
02:47Okay.
02:48Where, you know, you get to a range where McCaffrey is the best player on the board.
02:53And I think people might sort of be shocked by this.
02:56But, you know, 30 years old, last year had to take on so much volume.
03:00I worry a little bit.
03:02We get so comfortable in, like, recency bias and fantasy football and look at, like, what a guy did last
03:07year.
03:08But when we look back at 2024, how the McCaffrey just sort of, like, crushed everybody, had to go to
03:15Germany to see specialists and all that kind of stuff.
03:18And a lot of people had already taken him at, like, the 101, 102 area, and it just sort of
03:23ruined their drafts.
03:24So, I sort of have that in the back of my mind.
03:27And Nakua is interesting because I think he might start falling into a range where the upside outweighs sort of
03:36the downside risk.
03:37Do I think he's going to get a big suspension?
03:39I think no.
03:41I think if it is a suspension, I don't want to kind of speculate on these things.
03:44The NFL, it's kind of hard to guess.
03:47But could it be a one-game suspension and people sort of overthink it or maybe no suspension at all?
03:52I had Evan Silva on, and Evan notably moved Puka Nakua behind Amon Ross St. Brown and Jackson Smith and
04:02Jigba.
04:02So, he's got Nakua still in the top tier of wide receivers, but as the wide receiver four overall, I
04:08think you'll see more people doing that.
04:10I haven't seen him fall too much, though, Mike.
04:13It'll be interesting to see in, like, a big high-stakes main event draft like the one we're going to
04:18do if people want to play it a little safe.
04:22But, I don't know.
04:23Nakua's been a maniac off the field.
04:25I mean, the most recent one is kind of crazy.
04:28The guy goes into a glass window and hurts himself doing that.
04:35The headlines get crazier and crazier.
04:38What would really be funny if you and I did this tonight in the first round would be James Cook.
04:44Because I think every time we've ever spoken, we've spent a few minutes on James Cook.
04:48And so, here he is, the reigning NFL rushing leader.
04:52Year before that, shared the league lead in touchdown rushes.
04:56And his average draft position is like 111 in this tournament.
05:01So, are we going to want to do that?
05:04I mean, at the 111, the 112, when James Cook is there, I think he's an absolute edge pick.
05:11I have him ranked at, I believe, eighth overall in my rankings over at rotowire.com.
05:16I am very much into James Cook.
05:18We've talked about this for years and years and years.
05:21I'm glad to see you're on the James Cook train and he's a viable pick for us, Mike.
05:26No, I'm on the Theo train.
05:28Yeah, there you go.
05:29There you go.
05:29Yeah, James, I mean, it's such an easy bet to make at this point.
05:33And even the small hope that they unleash him in the passing game.
05:38I mean, you think about like rational coaching and what looks good, what looks good is James
05:43Cook out in space with the ball in his hands.
05:45And I think if Buffalo commits to using him just a little bit more in the passing game
05:50and we see the receptions totals go from the mid-30s into like the high 50s, then you're
05:58talking about a player with a completely different ceiling that could be unlocked.
06:01It's kind of hard to see the rushing numbers regress that much.
06:07And the touchdown scoring has just been automatic for him.
06:10So James Cook is locked in for me.
06:13I think I drafted him in a 350, a slow big gorilla that I'm in right now, which is the
06:19$350 contest at FFPC.
06:21I drafted him at the 112.
06:24I feel like that's an exceptional value where you can get him there.
06:27And it's so funny.
06:28I mean, I go back in time where I've been sort of a James Cook guy for years, but I
06:33remember being on a podcast where there was two other people sort of making fun of me
06:38for drafting James Cook ahead of Sky Moore in a high stakes dynasty rookie draft.
06:45It's been a nice ride for being on the James Cook train.
06:48So you weren't moved by Sky Moore returning punts last night for Green Bay?
06:52No, not at all.
06:54Not at all.
06:54They're not going to get me.
06:55No comeback today.
06:56I think I've won that one.
06:57That one's, you know, case closed on that.
06:59Well, I mean, I like that we'll talk about Cook here and a couple other bills options
07:04because, you know, we know your audience.
07:06What is the highest for Cook?
07:08Like, would you go 1-6, 1-7?
07:11How high would you go?
07:12I think, you know, you make an interesting argument.
07:16If Cook is the one you want to bet on, I've seen some very good builds from some very good
07:21high stakes drafters in both FFPC and NFFC, where they have pushed their running back of
07:28choice up to the 1-0-6.
07:30Now, for some drafters, it's Christian McCoffrey falls to the 1-0-6 and they draft him there.
07:35But then I've seen people push James Cook to the 1-0-6.
07:38I've seen some Ashton Gentry 1-0-6 drafters.
07:42And you get that anchor RB and then you get into round two and round three and you don't
07:49have to worry about which running back will fall to me in round two.
07:52You've got that anchor already set.
07:54And then you're able to attack wide receiver with, like, reckless abandon, knowing that
07:59you have a running back who could average 20 points per game.
08:02So I think pushing him up to the 1-0-6, I think, is completely viable.
08:06I think I'm more comfortable when we draft him in the end of the first round.
08:10But as appealing as Amon Ross St. Brown and Jackson Smith and Jigba are at, like, the 1-0-6
08:17level, certainly we could throw Puka in that mix.
08:20Once in a while, you get steamrolled at running back.
08:23And then when you're sitting on the board at the 2-0-7, all of the running backs that you
08:28like are gone.
08:29And then you're looking at a potential wide receiver, wide receiver start or wide receiver,
08:33tight end start.
08:34And then you're having to kind of play catch up at running back and passing up on kind
08:39of like league winning values at wide receiver potentially.
08:42So I think structurally pushing him up to the 1-0-6 makes some sense if you have conviction
08:47like I do that he could return value at that range.
08:511-0-6 for me would be a pick or two too far.
08:54I wouldn't want to have happen what happened to you and your co-drafter Ryan Heath, was
09:02it, today?
09:03Yes.
09:04Where he ended up with Derrick Henry at 2-0-7, 2-0-6 or 2-0-7.
09:08Because the running backs went right in front of you.
09:11I think 6 and 7 would be, for me, JSN, St. Brown, probably.
09:17And then 8, okay.
09:20And then I think I could live with another running back or London or sometimes it's Lamb
09:25or sometimes it's Jefferson.
09:28That's how I feel about it.
09:30Or even McBride, I suppose.
09:32Yeah, Ryan's a really smart guy and he's got a lot of conviction in Derrick Henry.
09:36But this is the first time I've had to click that button in that range.
09:40I was in a big NFFC draft the other night.
09:43The board was crazy in that one.
09:45And Derrick Henry fell all the way to 36 overall.
09:49It was like a full-on fade of Derrick Henry in that one.
09:53Because that's a wide receiver heavy format.
09:55Right.
09:56And it was 11 straight wide receivers to start out round three.
10:00Wow.
10:00And then Derrick Henry fell all the way to the 1-0-1 drafter.
10:04So the 1-0-1 drafter in that one with third round reversal had Jameer Gibbs, Devon A. Chan,
10:10and Derrick Henry.
10:12A very dangerous start for them for sure.
10:14But I'm with you.
10:16I mean, Henry, there's just not a sample size of 32-year-olds doing it at the running back position.
10:22You had the Priest-Holmes season where I believe he played like eight games and he averaged like 18 points
10:29per game.
10:29Then you have, I think it was a Ricky Williams season.
10:33Anybody, I could be wrong on that one.
10:35I believe it was Ricky Williams where Ricky Williams was like the only 32-year-old to give you a
10:40full 16-game season and produce a 15-plus point per game average.
10:45Derrick Henry, though, I mean, the guy looked incredible in the fantasy playoffs last year.
10:50The Ravens didn't really show anything in the offseason where they thought.
10:55They showed you a move that made you suggest that they want to move off of anything but high volume
11:00for Henry.
11:01They draft Adam Randall on day three.
11:04That's really the only new running back in the mix there.
11:06And Randall is a converted wide receiver at Clemson.
11:09He's kind of a fun, deep dynasty stash, but not a whole lot of experience at the running back position
11:15and certainly not ready to be an NFL starter.
11:18Justice Hill is back.
11:19So they are pretty confident in Derrick Henry still being Derrick Henry.
11:23So I get it.
11:24But, yeah, I'm with you.
11:25I'd like to avoid drafting him in that mid-second.
11:29So interesting to see where we'll pick, Mike.
11:32But, again, I'm open-minded to any spot.
11:34Yeah, that NFC draft can be wild sometimes.
11:37The third-round reversal because those teams are drafting two running backs often at the 1-2 turn.
11:42And then they need that receiver so you get those kind of long stretches.
11:46Great pull on Ricky Williams.
11:492009, 13 touchdowns and almost 1,400 yards from scrimmage.
11:53Where was I?
11:55I mean, I know I was right here in 2009, but that's a great pull.
11:59I mean, I think Ricky Williams, I think in 2002 for him, there was a famous, to Bills fans anyway,
12:06Miami-Buffalo game in the snow, and he might have gone for 200 that day even though the Bills won
12:11that game.
12:12But, you know, 2009 he was still plugging or chugging with Theo Gremminger.
12:19I'm Mike Shope here on WGR.
12:20Let's just sort of zoom out a little bit, Theo, and talk about a couple other Bills players for fantasy
12:26-minded folks in our audience.
12:28How about DJ Moore?
12:29He's the player we're asking everybody about this year, and there are truthers and there are stay the hell away
12:37guys.
12:37Maybe Scott Barrett is one from DJ Moore.
12:41Scott said, I know you know him well, he basically said he thinks he was washed last year, and the
12:47Bills clearly don't.
12:48So what's the right play on him?
12:52I mean, I've had to move him up a little bit.
12:54I wanted to kind of fade DJ Moore as well, but the vibes are very strong.
13:00I mean, there's not a whole lot of negativity coming out of Bills camp on the connection between DJ Moore
13:08and Josh Allen.
13:09I know, Mike, you're way, way more locked in than anybody I know, but I haven't found a whole lot
13:15of these guys are struggling with the connection
13:17or DJ Moore is struggling to ramp up.
13:20I think kind of on the contrary, the Bills paid a second-round pick for him coming off of his
13:26worst season,
13:27and he gets reunited with Joe Brady, who he was very good with in Carolina way back in the day.
13:33So there's a really strong narrative here.
13:36DJ Moore, we saw what he was able to do a few years back with a wide receiver six overall
13:42season, his first year in Chicago.
13:44I think he's going to have a number of spike weeks for Buffalo.
13:47Is it going to be a very consistent level of scoring?
13:51I'm not sure.
13:52What remains to be seen, but I do think he'll produce, with the way they're going to use him,
13:56I think he's going to produce some spike weeks there.
13:58I think he's, I think I'm like neutral with him at this point.
14:03I moved him up to 55 overall, so probably in my PPR ranking,
14:08so probably a little bit ahead of where Scott Barrett would have him.
14:11Excuse me, 56 overall, which is, I think, right about in line with where he's going to go in ADP
14:18in a lot of formats.
14:19So I'll say I'm neutral on DJ Moore.
14:21If you make the big bet on Josh Allen, though, and you take Josh Allen at QB1 overall,
14:27and you want to build out a little bit of correlation,
14:29I think DJ Moore becomes a little bit more viable, because why not make that big bet,
14:34especially in big overall contests?
14:37So I'll say neutral, not a full fade for me with DJ Moore.
14:42Do I think I could get burned on where I have him ranked?
14:45Maybe.
14:45But I think that they're going to give him every chance to be a consistent,
14:49high target share option in that offense.
14:52Theo, it's another year where I just can't click the button on Allen.
14:55And this year, maybe it's easier for me to avoid doing so than ever,
15:00because it's so rich.
15:04And two things happen.
15:05And I know you know this.
15:07I mean, two things happen.
15:08One is you deprive yourself from someone who you need to have be a star at running back or wide
15:15receiver
15:15or even tight end in that spot.
15:17I mean, that's round three or sometimes even round four.
15:19But then you take yourself in most leagues, most drafts,
15:23you take yourself out of the quarterback game for the rest of the draft.
15:27And you know what happens.
15:29We talk about this on ADP chasing all the time.
15:32Those guys are well aware of it.
15:33You get to the middle rounds and there's some quarterback there that's fallen
15:37and you can't do it because you made your quarterback bet six rounds ago.
15:42And this is nothing about Allen.
15:44I mean, look at it.
15:45Look at his numbers.
15:46Look at his career.
15:47What exactly is the argument against him?
15:49I'm not sure there is one, except it's really costly strategically, I think, in these.
15:55So we'll see how we feel tonight.
15:56But I never get him because I'd rather wait literally sometimes five or six rounds for Jaden Daniels
16:05or eight or nine rounds for Trevor Lawrence, who ran for eight or nine touchdowns himself last year.
16:11I just can never get myself to Josh Allen.
16:14Yeah, I mean, it's sort of the siren call of quarterback where Josh Allen is going in the fourth round.
16:20But you start playing the two for twos where do you prefer having Josh Allen and let's say Michael Pittman?
16:31Yeah.
16:32Or would you rather have Joe Burrow and who's going next to Josh Allen?
16:37T. Higgins.
16:38So it's like Jalen Waddell.
16:41Like wide receivers who could legitimately be wide receiver ones and a bunch of running backs who could be 15
16:47-plus point-per-game scorers.
16:49Those guys go right alongside of Josh Allen.
16:52Whereas when you get down to that range of Jaden Daniels, Drake May, there's nobody with that sort of upside.
17:00And when you go even further down, if you just want to commit yourself to being late at quarterback, you're
17:06seeing some absurd prices.
17:08We've seen Dak Prescott in round 12, Trevor Lawrence in round 11, Justin Herbert in round 11, Caleb Williams in
17:17round 11.
17:17And that's just from the last few days, according to Fantasy Mojo.
17:21And then sort of the even later quarterbacks are really fun where Brock Purdy routinely goes in the late 12th
17:29round.
17:29And then I like the Jared Goff where he's going.
17:34I can get Jared Goff in the 14th or 15th round.
17:37I think he's the 2026 version of 2025 Matthew Stafford.
17:42He's sort of my bet on a guy who's just going to throw for an exceptional amount of touchdowns.
17:46And I think Detroit is just going to be scoring at will this year.
17:50So, yeah, it's sort of the opportunity cost of taking Josh Allen is you might pass up on the league
17:58winner.
17:58And then you can always recover a quarterback this year.
18:01And, Mike, two quarterback builds are very much in play.
18:04If you want to wait for the double-digit rounds and take two quarterbacks, I think there are some really
18:10fun values.
18:10I think Bo Nix is set up for a pretty strong season.
18:13We know Jackson Dart has the rushing upside.
18:16I mean, there's so many guys.
18:17And then really the mystery box one is Malik Willis who could rush for 850 yards in what should be
18:25a very run-heavy Miami attack.
18:28I mean, the obvious downside is this way.
18:31You never get Allen if you think this way because you always leave him for somebody else.
18:35And this is a room of smart people who are spending a lot of money on this.
18:39And they know the same things we do.
18:40So, just that, like, Goff, 10 rounds later, you know how many quarterbacks, Theo, right now, have shorter odds to
18:48lead the NFL in passing yards than Jared Goff?
18:51Zero.
18:52I mean, he's crazy.
18:53Absolutely crazy.
18:54He's the co-favorite.
18:55I know he doesn't run.
18:56I mean, that's not to be ignored.
18:59But, yeah, like, sign me up.
19:03Kincaid this year, what's he for you this year?
19:06Again, I'm open-minded to drafting Dalton Kincaid.
19:09I've been a Kincaid backer for years, and that's burned me a little bit.
19:12I feel like he's going in a range, though, that he could pay off very well.
19:17All the signs are that he's fully healthy, didn't have to get surgery, but he was banged up last year.
19:24Going at that tight end 13 range, all we need from Dalton Kincaid is an every-down roll where the
19:31snap share goes way, way up.
19:34And I think it feels like the team is ready to use him like that.
19:37So, I think he's fine.
19:39You're getting access to a great offense in Buffalo.
19:43In our offensive line rankings over at rotowire.com, that article is free.
19:47It's fantastic.
19:48We have Buffalo as the fourth-best offensive line in football this year.
19:52And when you look at the secondary pass catchers besides D.J. Moore, Kincaid is obviously going to be a
19:58player that they're heavily leaning into.
20:00And I think the argument that you made earlier that there's smart people full-on fading D.J. Moore,
20:07if D.J. Moore fails, it probably is a net win for Dalton Kincaid with the familiarity he has with
20:14the system,
20:15the familiarity he has with Josh Allen, and just the talent profile that he has.
20:21It's been sort of a slow buildup, but you are talking about a player that the team took in the
20:25first round.
20:27The drum beats were great for him when he was younger, and now it feels like we use the term
20:31post-type sleeper.
20:32This could end up being Dalton Kincaid's best fantasy season ever, and he's sort of sitting there at the cheapest
20:39range he's been in quite some time.
20:41Yeah, that's always a fun element of these drafts is how to figure out tight end.
20:45FFPC is my favorite place to play with the point-and-a-half.
20:48It just adds just the right amount of extra strategy, I think, to these things.
20:53So maybe we'll see somebody in there tonight, and you can see us on Theo's Rotowire YouTube channel where we're
21:00drafting at 7 Eastern.
21:02I'm going to have to bust it out of here when the time comes.
21:05Theo, before you go, thank you for helping arrange with me the plan we have for the football season
21:12with yourself and other Rotowire celebrities joining us afternoons to preview each weekend in fantasy football,
21:20including Ian Harditz, who was on with Bulldog two days ago.
21:23So I'm a big fan.
21:25Rotowire is really where I found interest in fantasy football in the second act here in my life,
21:30where my friend Joe was like, you've got to listen to Chris Liss.
21:34And then he's no longer with Rotowire, but then I started doing that
21:37and have always had a connection with them, at least to my mind, through the years.
21:43So I'm excited to have you and Ian and the other guys that I know there be a part of
21:48our show here this year.
21:50Yeah, no, I'm thrilled.
21:51It's going to be a lot of fun.
21:53Ian Harditz, myself, some Jim Coventry, and then some other Rotowire talent.
21:58We're going to be able to talk football with you every single week.
22:01And it's pretty natural for me because we're going to be talking football off the air a lot,
22:06and we have a main event team we're splitting,
22:08so we might as well just turn the mics on and make some content out of it.
22:12But, no, we really are excited.
22:14A ton of respect for what you do,
22:16and we're happy that your listeners get a chance to hear what we're doing over at Rotowire.
22:21Go check out the site.
22:23If you have a fantasy draft coming up, we have tools and we have rankings that will help you out
22:27a ton.
22:28I'm putting out articles.
22:30I'm putting out my own rankings over there.
22:32You can use the code DO20, and it gets you 20% off of any subscription.
22:37A great place to get ready for your fantasy draft.
22:40And if you like using a draft assistant during your draft, we have a very cool draft assistant tool.
22:46They put a lot of work into that thing.
22:48It makes your draft very, very easy.
22:50All sports, too, by the way.
22:52I've known Sigmund Blum a long time at Football Guys, and I love their site.
22:56Rotowire is everything.
22:57You want to play Premier League fantasy soccer or college football.
23:02I mean, it's all at Rotowire.
23:04We've got it all covered.
23:05All covered.
23:05There it is.
23:06Theo, thank you, and thanks for the invite.
23:09I'll see you at 7.
23:10I'll see you in a couple hours.
23:11Let's get it.
23:12All right.
23:12Theo Gremminger on the Western Hotline, and this is a big one tonight, so looking forward to that.
23:18But we'll take a break here and get to the update.
23:21We have a Bills suspension to mention.
23:25803-0550.
23:26Thinking a lot about those of you who, especially that were not in the stadium on Saturday, that are going
23:33tomorrow.
23:34And just what are your expectations?
23:36Now other people have been.
23:38You've heard good and bad at this point.
23:41But tomorrow should be a really special day.
23:43We'll talk about on and off the field with the Bills going forward here.
23:46Lines are open.
23:47This is Mike Shope on WGR.
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