00:00Mr. Griffin still a Washington National. We are 90 minutes away.
00:03I am still predicting that he gets traded.
00:06I am down to, my peak was 75% that he was going to get dealt.
00:11Today I started at 61%.
00:14I told you about an hour ago I was 51%.
00:17Right now I'm 50.6% sure.
00:20Oh, so you've dropped 0.4%.
00:22Yeah, well, I mean, there's just, where is my news?
00:24I would say that I'm still probably like 60, 65% sure,
00:28and this is kind of on par for what I was expecting.
00:31It would be very surprising if he's not traded.
00:34Yeah, this kind of feels on par to me where this is one of those that
00:38you're clearly not getting the package that you're looking for,
00:41and so you're going to ride this one out and wait for a team to hopefully get desperate.
00:45Think about some of the trades that got done just at the end.
00:48Talking to Mike Rizzo for years, talking about some of the different trades
00:52that he got done right at the buzzer.
00:54The Lane Thomas for John Lester deal was one that got done right at the buzzer.
00:58The Dylan Floro for Andres Chaparro deal got done just at the buzzer.
01:03Thank goodness.
01:04Like those sorts of deals.
01:07You know, sometimes if you're not getting exactly what you're looking for now,
01:10those players are a lot different than Foster Griffin.
01:12That's your starting first baseman against lefties.
01:15That is your platoon piece.
01:17Yeah, I mean, where would the Nationals?
01:18Andres Chaparro.
01:19Maybe we need to start a topic on this, Grant.
01:20Where would the Nationals be without the Dylan Floro trade?
01:24Forget the Juan Soto trade.
01:26The Dylan Floro trade set them up.
01:28They got their platoon first baseman.
01:29I've always said that.
01:30It was the deal that changed everything about the organization.
01:35I think they trade Foster Griffin.
01:37And I want to be very careful about what I'm trying to say.
01:40The idea that he hasn't been dealt yet is not really the point.
01:45I want to know what Taboney knows about being able to extend a qualifying offer.
01:51Yeah.
01:51I think that the return for Foster Griffin is way lower than I would have anticipated a week ago.
02:00And a week ago, my point was, well, hold on.
02:03You might be able to do better in the qualifying offer return of a draft pick in the top 60.
02:10So if it's lower than I thought then, then I definitely think you could do better just getting a draft
02:15pick and adding a bunch of pool money in the draft.
02:17What were you thinking a deal for Foster would look like?
02:20Well, it's impossible to know prospects and package.
02:24Sure.
02:24What I thought we were possibly heading toward was, two weeks ago, there was a very real possibility Tarek Skubal
02:32wasn't getting traded.
02:34There was a very real possibility Casey Mize wasn't getting traded.
02:37There was still a lot of people suggesting Kevin Gossman might not even get traded, as crazy as that sounds
02:43now with how things have gone in Toronto.
02:44He's already been dealt.
02:46There are others.
02:47The Cubs have traded for a couple starters.
02:48So, I remember during that Diamondbacks series having a conversation with a buddy who covers baseball nationally.
02:55And their point was, there's a real legitimate shot Foster Griffin is a top three, maybe a top two pitcher
03:02that gets traded at the deadline.
03:04And if that's true, all-star, lefty, the way he's been throwing, you're going to get a really, really good
03:09return.
03:10Someone's bringing him in to be their third starter.
03:12The difference, think about it this way.
03:14If you're trading for a guy who's going to be your game three starter, that means you're also expecting that
03:19guy to potentially pitch in a game seven.
03:21To give up prospects, key pieces, for a rental is difficult.
03:26But if it's a rental that I have pitching in a game three or a game seven, I'm a lot
03:30more willing to part with pieces.
03:32Then, if this is my fourth starter, and he might just be a bulk guy in the playoffs, and he's
03:36not going to be a starter in game seven,
03:38I think we've gotten to a point where, by and large, the team bringing him in is not having him
03:44start a third and a seventh game of the series.
03:47And if that's true, the return has just gone down.
03:50Well, and I think, and this is obviously true, he's more valuable here than he would be in other places.
03:55That's obviously true, universally.
03:57But I think, too, this team values what he brings in terms of results and the way that he does
04:04it than probably any other team around Major League Baseball.
04:07And what I mean by that is, you sign this guy for next to nothing, $5.5 million to come
04:11back from Japan,
04:13and for a guy that's costing $5 million, I don't care how he gets outs, Grant.
04:18I really don't.
04:19If you have to do whatever...
04:20Baseball disagrees with you.
04:21I'm just, no, I'm saying for $5 million, whatever.
04:24But when I'm trading a prospect, and now I have to bring this guy in, well, I need you to
04:28throw $96.
04:29I need you to throw $97.
04:30And so, I'm not arguing with the results here.
04:32There's no way you can.
04:33You look at what he's done here.
04:34But, for the Nationals, I'm willing to give you that $5 million contract, and you throw junk balls up there,
04:39and I don't care.
04:41He took a flyer, and it worked beautifully.
04:43But the second I start to trade good prospects for this guy, if I have a guy throw a 92
04:48-mile-an-hour cutters and he gets crushed,
04:50people are going to look at me like, well, what did you think was going to happen?
04:52Versus if a guy throwing 97 starts getting crushed.
04:55Yes.
04:56Totally true.
04:58And the rental element of this is massive.
05:01People were completely wrong, and I think that the outrage over what the Tigers got back for Tarek Skubel was
05:07laughable.
05:09People, I hate to be this guy.
05:10Well, I'm not even going to be that guy.
05:11I'll just say, I think a lot of people expected the Tigers to do better than they did,
05:16who, A, just heard that it was going to be a crazy return and don't really follow it that closely.
05:22And then, B, a lot of people had hot takes on the prospects coming back who have no idea anything
05:27about those guys.
05:28They'd never heard of them until 10 minutes, you know, after the trade or whatever.
05:32I think the Tigers actually did really well in the Skubel return, but my point is still,
05:37Tarek Skubel's maybe the greatest rental starting pitcher who's ever been traded.
05:42Yes.
05:43And while I think it was a good return, it was lambasted nationally for not having been enough.
05:49Again, I think that's flawed.
05:51That's Tarek Skubel, man.
05:53That's the last two years Cy Young Award winner who, if he was healthy, would have won a third one
05:57maybe this year.
05:58It was just as good this year.
05:59So now I'm talking about a guy who throws seven pitches, who's trying to, you know,
06:04basically it's guts, guile, and pitch ability.
06:07And you think after all of the moves that have been made, I'm flipping him and I'm going to get
06:11a marquee prospect.
06:12Like, I already can see this happening.
06:14They're going to trade him.
06:15Hopefully they get, I'm hoping for, realistically, two arms back.
06:19Like, someone who's maybe close to big league ready, bullpen, something like that.
06:23And then this would be the deal where I would want a higher ceiling lottery ticket, younger starting pitcher.
06:28Maybe it's someone in single A, A-plus ball, in the, you know, 19 to 21-year-old range.
06:34Or you add a legitimate pitching prospect.
06:37But if they can get two players back, including a decent arm in any Foster Griffin deal, I'll be really
06:42happy.
06:43But if people think that the return was light for Luis Garcia, I mean, wait until you see what happens
06:50with Foster Griffin.
06:50Yeah, exactly.
06:51And that's why I think the qualifying offer, going back to that, I think informs a lot.
06:56If they feel like they can, if they know for a fact from ownership that they can do that,
07:01then maybe an offer never reaches the level at which they feel like it's worth taking.
07:06And then they just pitch it out and then they have him for next season with the qualifying offer.
07:11Or he declines it, goes somewhere, and you get your compensation pick, and that's your way of getting something in
07:15return.
07:15But if they don't know that, that's where it becomes tough, where if I don't know that I can do
07:19that,
07:19maybe I just take whatever the best offer is.
07:21And that offer is probably going to be something that Nats fans balk at.
07:25But that's the interesting part of this, is what do they make of the qualifying offer
07:31and what they can do with that next season?
07:33Because the other part, too, is, you've discussed this as well,
07:36maybe Paul Ciboni doesn't want to use his, whatever his budget is next season,
07:40who knows if it's $20 million, who knows if it's $30 million, who knows what it is in free agency.
07:43But do you really want to use $22 million of it on Foster Griffin?
07:46I think there's definitely an argument to be made that that would be a worthwhile spending of money.
07:51But if $22 million of your $30 million budget is spent on one guy,
07:55would you rather go sign three pitchers for that, four pitchers and someone else for that?
08:00Like, that's a real conversation to be had as well.
08:02All right, so I think he gets traded before 6 p.m. in an hour and 20 minutes.
08:07You do, too.
08:08Yeah.
08:08What team do you think he gets traded to?
08:11I've been joking saying the White Sox time and time again, but that would not shock me at all.
08:16That would make sense.
08:16It feels Atlanta Braves-y to me.
08:19I'm thinking Braves or the other team, I don't know why I can't shake.
08:23The White Sox is a good one.
08:24Astros keeps kind of popping up in my head as a team that I think would make some sense.
08:29Now, give me one other name of a player that could get traded between now and 6 o'clock,
08:34other than Foster Griffin, that you don't think is a crazy thing to throw out there.
08:37Yeah, we've thrown Jacob Young out plenty, so I think that could be one.
08:41I'm trying to think of some other names, and it gets a little bit wild with some of it,
08:47so I think I'll just stick with JY because I don't see some of the other ones.
08:51I guess when you trade Curtis Meade, I think it wouldn't have been crazy for Brady House to have been
08:56traded,
08:56but I don't think you trade both Brady House and Curtis Meade.
09:00So I'll just stick with JY.
09:02Makes sense.
09:04I'll say, I mean, there's no reason to think this.
09:07I haven't heard it, but I'm just throwing something out there.
09:10Nassim Nunez.
09:11Nassim Nunez is an elite defender.
09:13He is an elite runner.
09:16He's got, I think, eight or nine more steals than anyone else in baseball.
09:19He can play short.
09:20He can play second.
09:21He can play third.
09:22He hasn't done it a lot.
09:23All at a well above average level,
09:25and he's the number one base stealer in the sport who can fly.
09:27For a championship team that wants just a really good role, bench player,
09:31I think he has immense value.
09:33Now, if I'm the Nats, I'm not trying to trade Nassim Nunez
09:36because I actually think he can help me pretty extensively over the next couple of years,
09:40but they weren't trying to trade Curtis Meade either.
09:42If I am a projected 93 to 97 win team,
09:46that is the kind of guy I would want on my bench badly,
09:49and I would give up a solid minor league player for the control that you get for Nassim Nunez,
09:55who has proven this year he's never going to be a great offensive player.
09:58He doesn't have power.
09:59He's not going to slug, none of that,
10:00but he can play multiple spots at a plus level.
10:03He can be an elite gold glove caliber shortstop,
10:07and the guy's on a 50 steal pace.
10:09Like, he can run.
10:11He has three super plus traits.
10:13His arm is ridiculous.
10:14His glove is really good,
10:15and his ability to steal bases.
10:18That's hard to find.
10:19It's like 370 grade tools.
10:20Yeah.
10:21No, I think it would be interesting,
10:22and I don't know what his value would be because he's another one.
10:24If they don't feel like they have a guy that's going to be an impact guy long term
10:28and someone that maybe is just going to be a bench piece
10:30and you can get back someone that you can add into the system,
10:33I think it would be totally worth it.
10:34For, like, Nass, I think long term,
10:37they've got some infielders that probably take his spot.
10:40I mean, namely, I would expect him to be playing shortstop when CJ is dealt
10:43or if CJ is dealt, not talking about the deadline,
10:45but in the offseason.
10:47If that's the case, Eli Willits,
10:49that's his spot long term in a couple of seasons
10:51or maybe at the end of next year.
10:52Well, if you traded Nassim today in a package
10:55where someone offers you a couple minor leaguers
10:57that you like at the low levels or whatever,
10:59because he's controllable through 2031,
11:01and again, that's why I would keep him around.
11:03Yeah.
11:03He's got a ton of value for the Nats, too.
11:05But in a world where you did that,
11:06like, second base is now open for a Seaver King
11:09to come up and play down the stretch of this season.
11:12So you get a good long runway to look at House, King, Abimelech, Ortiz.
11:17I mean, that's kind of the Rochester Red Wings lineup.
11:19It is.
11:19Of about a month ago.
11:20And we're trending in that direction
11:22after they got swept by the Atlanta Braves over four games.
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