- 3 days ago
Grant Paulsen from 106.7 The Fan joins The Kevin Sheehan Show to discuss Foster Griffin’s impressive performances on the Nationals this season and if the team could make a trade to boost their bullpen before the MLB trade deadline.
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00:00Let's move to the reason that I called you.
00:02So, like, I went through what yesterday was in the last eight starts,
00:07and then I looked at, not that I thought, like, okay,
00:10he's actually a Cy Young candidate odds-wise.
00:13But I'm curious, before we get to why he's been so effective,
00:20how many more starts in a row would he have to have like this
00:23before he's in the conversation?
00:25I know the National League is loaded at the top with serious Cy Young candidates,
00:30but how far away from that do you think he is?
00:34I think he's probably a tier below the legitimate candidates,
00:39not just statistically, but from a dominance standpoint.
00:43Like, at his best, you know, he's seven innings of shutty or one-run ball,
00:48and he's, you know, eight or nine strikeouts a lot of nights.
00:51He doesn't have the club in the bag of the guys that will win this award
00:54just from a sheer swing-and-miss, whiff-rate stuff standpoint.
00:59But some of that is not even, you know, something he can control.
01:02Like, by the nature of being a fastball at 91-92 and a seven-pitch pitcher,
01:08he just starts the race for the Cy Young a mile behind everybody else, basically,
01:13because it's not what people are looking for from a numbers standpoint.
01:16If you're looking for actual just efficiency of getting outs,
01:20whether you're looking at ERA or FIF or things like that,
01:22and, you know, he's going to grade out pretty favorably.
01:25He's having an amazing year.
01:26I don't want to belittle it, but it's not quite on that level.
01:29Now, to your question, he's had eight straight starts of one run or fewer.
01:32So if that were to continue, and you'd string together 12 or 13,
01:35and his ERA now is getting to the very low twos,
01:39well, nobody can say anything other than,
01:42okay, this guy's got to be in the discussion.
01:43He's a top three or four ERA guy at that point.
01:46But it would take another handful of starts without a blip,
01:49which feels like it would be really, really hard to do.
01:52All right.
01:52So what's making him so good right now?
01:56First off, he legitimately throws seven pitches.
01:59I think sometimes in baseball, we hear about these different arms
02:02that throw a handful of pitches, right?
02:05And it's like, oh, this guy has five offerings.
02:07And maybe they do, but they don't use them all,
02:10and they don't throw them all in all counts.
02:12This guy legitimately, Kevin, throws seven pitches,
02:16and he can throw any pitch in any count or a strike.
02:20So that's the first thing I would say.
02:21He calls his own games.
02:23So you've seen pitch com now where the catcher hits the button on his knee pad,
02:27and the pitcher has it in his ear, and he just shakes the ass, and he goes.
02:31Foster Griffin, and this is not unheard of, but it's still a rarity.
02:35It's a minority.
02:36He calls his own pitches because he's got so many of them
02:40that it would take so long for a catcher to learn him
02:42like he's learned himself over the three years in Japan
02:45where he went into the lab literally and figuratively
02:48and built some of these pitches.
02:49So that's the first thing I would say.
02:51What's his best pitch?
02:54So there's a couple different ways I would answer that.
02:56I'm going to let you finish on what makes him so good,
02:59but I'm actually fascinated with this because I had Dave Jagler on the show
03:03on Thursday or Friday, and he talked about the seven pitches,
03:07and he actually identified the sweeper as a pitch we didn't even refer to
03:11as a sweeper a few years back.
03:13But which of the pitches is his best, and which one is his weakest?
03:18Yeah, so his fastball success rate is best, even though I wouldn't say
03:22from a stuff standpoint it's his best pitch.
03:25It plays well because he has so many other things,
03:27and I think it explodes on people.
03:29So it's a 96th percentile run value, which is to say when you grade out
03:34all the fastballs in the sport, there are basically like 4% of pitchers
03:38who are doing a better job with their fastball is on speed.
03:42So like his changeup also grades out really, really well, 70th percentile.
03:47But if you look at like his usage as an example, he throws his cutter
03:52about 33% of the time.
03:55His four-seamer, which is the fastball that I'm referencing,
04:00playing so well despite a lack of velocity, 16% of the time.
04:04The sweeper, 14.5% of the time.
04:08Changeup, 10%.
04:09Curveball, 10%.
04:11Sinker, two-seam, 10%.
04:13And then a split-fingered fastball about 6%.
04:16He's thrown it about 110 times.
04:18When I say seven pitches, it's not like he has them all,
04:22but he won't throw them in games.
04:23Like he throws all seven a decent percent of the time.
04:27And then just to give you a couple of numbers on like the success rate
04:30of those pitches to give you an idea, the pitch that he's had the most success
04:35with, I'd say, the league's hitting 196 off his four-seamer, 143 off his changeup.
04:41There's less dominance, but really the cutter is 203 average against.
04:45I think his cutter might be his best pitch.
04:47And then the two-seamer is 219.
04:48The only ball that's been really crushed is his curveball has a 280 average against.
04:55I mean, so you should finish what makes him so great.
05:00You started with he's got seven pitches.
05:02People talk about having seven pitches, but no one really does.
05:05And he does, and he throws them.
05:07But you're starting to say what Dave said, which is he's a thinking man's pitcher, 30 years old.
05:15Like there's a lot of experience that he has come to gather over all these years
05:22of not being what he's been this year.
05:24And he's putting it into play.
05:26I don't want to say Greg Maddox style.
05:29Maybe you've got a comp, but continue with what's making him so good.
05:34Yes.
05:35So that's totally true.
05:36He is the ultimate pitcher.
05:37You know, there were, it was only a few years ago where like, and probably even now a guy
05:42like this, I would not miss, like I would just not sign because he's not going to blow
05:47you away in a bullpen session.
05:49And, and you're just going to look at him and go seven pitches means you don't have three
05:53or four really good ones.
05:54Right.
05:54And your average fastball block, his average fastball is ninth percentile in the sport.
05:59The average person throws 95.
06:01He throws 91.
06:03And so like, that's not going to get you a lot of eyeballs, but he paints.
06:07I mean, he is, it's a, it's a cliche, but he is a legitimate pitcher.
06:11The other thing is he's ahead in a lot of counts.
06:13So his chase rate's incredible.
06:16It's 80th percentile in the sport in terms of chase rate.
06:19He also misses the barrel within the zone.
06:22Guys don't square him up at a 73rd percentile rate.
06:26And he doesn't walk anybody like that's the other thing in today's day and age in baseball
06:31with the true outcomes.
06:32You know, the big sluggers, you think about guys like James Wood or Kyle Schwarber or Jordan
06:37Alvarez, whoever's leading the league and homers at any given moment, these guys walk
06:40a ton, right?
06:41And they're okay striking out because they're going to get on base with their walks.
06:44And, and that's a lot of the times with pitchers and the Cy Young conversation, you'll see
06:48their average against is 215, 225 or whatever.
06:52But because they walk some guys occasionally, you know, their ERA might be in the mid twos.
06:57Foster Griffin is 90th percentile in walk rate.
07:01He also does a really good job getting a lot of ground balls.
07:05You know, it's not a, he's not a fly ball pitcher in an era where everyone's trying to basically
07:09hit the ball in the air with backspin.
07:12His ground ball rate is over the 70th percentile.
07:14So when you dive into any of his numbers, it's like all the stuff you would want as a
07:20pitching coach in one arm.
07:24Yeah.
07:24I mean, it's, it's so interesting to watch and it was, it's so unexpected.
07:29Obviously nobody had this guy doing what he's doing and nobody Grant had this team doing
07:35what it's done at 50 and 50 through a hundred games.
07:39So what have you been saying on your show about what you'd like to see them do here in two
07:47weeks and do the, obviously the next two weeks impact that, but let's just assume that they're
07:53hovering at a game or two above 500.
07:56What do you think they should do?
07:59And what do you think they will do?
08:00Yeah.
08:00So that's the right way.
08:01And a great way to ask the question, Kevin, because the cop-out is always like things could
08:05change, whatever, but if, if things stay the same in two weeks.
08:09I am advocating for what I would call a soft buy.
08:14I actually talked to Paul Taboni on the air on MLB network radio yesterday.
08:18And it sounded like he was open to this idea, which intrigues me because typically what we
08:24do is we decide who's going to be a buyer or seller based on where they're at.
08:28And it was decide that for themselves.
08:29And then we put them into one of the two buckets to Boney pointed out to me on the air
08:34yesterday.
08:34The Dodgers are a team through the years that have done a really good job selling off assets
08:39based on the market that they, you know, they, they view it almost like a stock market.
08:44Right.
08:44And they'll see, okay, it's a, it's a seller's market for pitching.
08:48There's no pitching.
08:49So even though we're a championship contender and we're buying in this area where we're
08:54deficient, we'll trade Dustin May, our pitcher, and we'll get something for him.
08:59Now they have the ability to do that in a way that very few teams do because they have
09:03more talent and depth because they spend more money.
09:06The Nats don't necessarily have that.
09:07But what I would advocate for is a soft buy in areas of major need where they can help
09:13themselves long-term.
09:14I'm doing nothing on the rental market, nothing.
09:17So this is not about this season in a nutshell for me.
09:20Right.
09:21But if I can accidentally help myself this year by getting a controllable relief pitcher
09:25or a controllable starting pitcher, great.
09:28I mean, it's more about the two and three year plan for me than this season.
09:32And you just hope that they don't turn into Marshawn Lattimore.
09:37Exactly.
09:37Yeah.
09:38That, that would, well, you're not giving up enough probably for it to be Marshawn Lattimore
09:43either, but like, I'll give you an example.
09:44So the thing I'd be willing to do is deal from my positions of strength and go get something.
09:51So they have an incredible amount of minor league talent in the outfield.
09:55They're already loaded with young major league talent.
09:58James Wood, Dalen Lyle, Dylan Cruz, Jacob Young.
10:01They're DH-ing one of those guys pretty regularly to get them into the lineup as it is.
10:04And then even at just the AAA level, you think about it, they've got a guy in Andrew Pinckney
10:08who's almost ready.
10:10They just DFA'd Robert Hassel who was in the Soto deal because he couldn't kind of get in
10:14where he fit in.
10:15They brought over this kid, Christian Franklin from the Cubs last year.
10:17I could go on and on.
10:19So like I'm packaging an outfield prospect, not someone who means a ton to me long-term,
10:23but a good little mid-level prospect in the depth that I have in my organization with
10:28a piece to go get something that helps on the pitching side.
10:32And I would advocate for trading Luis Garcia, one of the three guys on this team that has
10:37over 20 home runs.
10:38I think this is a career run.
10:40He's turned into Babe Ruth.
10:41There have long been questions, and maybe he's matured and come out of it, but from previous
10:46regime especially about some of the work habits and things.
10:49He got sent to the minors at one point to improve his prep for games and to get into better
10:53shape.
10:53He is the ultimate sell-high candidate to me.
10:56And a team like Boston would fall all over themselves for a bat in their infield that
11:00can play first and second.
11:01Not particularly well, but he could stand there and play those positions.
11:04And that bat is a huge impact player.
11:07I mean, he's got a chance to be a middle-of-the-order stick to put you over the top.
11:10So if you coupled like a Luis Garcia with a minor league outfielder, you could absolutely
11:16get a controllable starting pitcher.
11:18I'd be asking for like Connelly early in the back of that rotation.
11:21Yeah, I was going to ask, tell me about what's out there.
11:24Like, do you have a couple of relievers that you think that they could soft buy?
11:30Yeah, so that's the issue is right now, the names that are out there that are known are
11:35mostly the rental candidate guys like Aroldis Chapman.
11:38Now, Aroldis Chapman's not going anywhere as it is because Boston ended up ripping off 13
11:43consecutive wins.
11:44But those are the names that have been floated for some time.
11:46So it's about Taboni and his staff kind of evaluating and finding the guy that's got
11:52three years of control.
11:54And I'm not even saying they have to go get someone that on paper, you and I, Kevin, look
11:58at and we're like, there's your closer.
11:59He's been closing in this place.
12:01Like, San Diego is a good example.
12:03I think they're going to trade Mason Miller, who's the best reliever in baseball.
12:06You have no business really getting in on Mason Miller.
12:09The cost is massive.
12:10But what I'm saying is, like, Taboni, I bring up Connelly early because I think Boston is a
12:14really good fit for Garcia.
12:15The boney's already made trades with them.
12:17He knows the system inside and out.
12:19He scouted, he drafted, he helped develop Connelly early.
12:22Like a move like that, where I give up a bat from the number one offense in the sport.
12:26I bring up Abimelech Ortiz, who drove in four runs in the minors yesterday, has played one
12:30game in the big leagues and doubled and has big league power, came over in the McKenzie
12:34Gore deal.
12:35Do I fall off from what Luis Garcia was doing in his month as Ruth?
12:39Yes, but he's going to fall off anyway.
12:41Now I replace him at first with a left-handed bat from AAA.
12:44And I just added a long-term answer in my rotation.
12:47Something like that is what I'm advocating for.
12:50So everyone wants to say, should they buy?
12:52Should they sell?
12:52I think they should do a little bit of both.
12:55I'll tell you what they should not do.
12:56They should not try to win a World Series this year when they really can't, if that makes
13:02any sense.
13:02So I'm not renting anything and I'm not giving up blue chip prospects.
13:06But I'm also not going to sit pat.
13:07I think it'd be malpractice for Taboni and this front office to not do something to help
13:12and provide some reinforcements for this elite offense.
13:15It would be silly.
13:16It's too hard to be 500 after 100 games.
13:19There's teams, you know, Mike Elias would give his left arm right now to have a winning
13:23record with his job on the line.
13:25You look at the Mets and the money they spend to win and they can't do it.
13:28It's hard to get where they've gotten accidentally.
13:30So you can't look at that gift horse in the mouth, in my opinion.
13:34Grant Paulson joining us.
13:36It would be nice if 30 days from now, 30 games later, they are sitting there, you know,
13:42a game or two out of the third wildcard spot.
13:46Hell, I mean, they're not that far away from the second wildcard spot at this point.
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