00:03Hello Victoria, I hope you've dried out a little bit after the very, very wet week we had last week.
00:09Good news ahead is that there is not much rain on the horizon so that will allow floodwaters to
00:16recede this week, but there is a high pressure system sitting over the southeast for multiple
00:22days which is ramping up our frost risk for almost the entire week. So let's have a look
00:28into that. This is Monday morning, the picture looks mostly the same for every day so we'll just
00:34look at the temperatures on Monday. This dark blue is negative 5 to 0 degrees Celsius up in the Alpine
00:40regions but also in a lot of this sort of central ag region. Across almost all of Victoria though
00:46we're in the 0 to 5 degrees Celsius. There is no winds, it is very cold so frost risk is
00:53definitely
00:54high but there's also a chance of fog with that quite wet ground although it may not be warm enough
01:01just quite for it. Down in the Gippsland region it's slightly warmer 5 to 10 degrees in the mornings
01:07there so maybe not frost in Gippsland. Let's have a quick look at my chosen city for the week
01:18which is Shepparton. Shepparton is going to be in the heart of this frost risk. You can see Monday
01:240 degrees, Tuesday negative 1, Wednesday 0, Thursday 2 degrees, Friday 1 degrees so there's frost for all
01:30those days. Quickly looking at the confidence, we'll have a look at Tuesday on the pro version.
01:37So not all models are showing the negative values that we're seeing with our AI model. We do know that
01:44there are some issues with models getting the negative temperatures quite as low as they are
01:49but you know the warmest that we're seeing is 3 degrees so there's still that high chance of risk
01:53even if it's not in Shepparton but in surrounding areas for sure. Beautiful. What else do we want to
02:00show here? It's that there's no wind for pretty much the whole week. In fact we can have a look
02:05or flip
02:06over here. On this side we've got rainfall and on this side we've got wind. I won't bother flipping
02:11through the wind because it is the same the whole week. Zero to 10 kilometers per hour gusts for most
02:19of the areas. A little bit stronger in the Alpine regions. That is until we will flick through to
02:26Saturday just to show you here. Saturday we're starting to get potentially a cutoff low moving
02:33through and ramping up wind speeds there. Here we go. Potential gusts 63 to 90 kilometers an hour are on
02:40the way
02:41in on Sunday there. Okay so light cold at the start of the week. Next weekend we might have
02:49wind and a bit of rain on the way but let's have a look at rain. Rain's on this side.
02:53So Monday nothing,
02:55Tuesday nothing, Wednesday nothing, Thursday nothing, Friday you can start to see the band ahead
03:00of that cutoff low and here we go. This is Saturday. We're seeing light showers across Victoria
03:06anywhere between nothing on Gippsland but in the west maybe one to five mils so still quite light
03:16scattered showers but it's Sunday that sees a stronger rainfall as the cutoff low moves across
03:21and again it's actually in those Alpine regions. So 10 to 15 mils up in the exact same places that
03:28saw
03:28almost 300 this week. For the rest of the state just light scattered showers. Let's actually quickly look
03:35whether this is likely to fall as snow or not. All right I've just moved us onto the forecast for
03:42Falls Creek. Saturday, Sunday, Monday it does look like it will fall as snow. Okay so there's snow on
03:50the way. All right so wrapping up we have frost for most of the state for pretty much the whole
03:58week.
03:58No rain, no wind from Monday till Friday but it's Saturday and Sunday that a cutoff low
04:04might deliver rain and wind. All right we'll see you next week. Have a good one.
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