00:03Hello Australia, it is the 5th of July and this is your National Weather Forecast for the week
00:07ahead. Having a quick look back into last week, there was a lot of rain for a lot of the
00:12country.
00:12The central interior part of the east saw anywhere between 25 and 100 mils, but most of that rain was
00:20concentrated in the Victorian Alps, reaching up to 300 mils in localised areas and some snowfall
00:27towards the end of the week. Let's have a look for the week ahead and look at the story. Now
00:33really
00:33the main story is it is drying out, that flood risk is reducing in most of those areas that were
00:39affected, but there is frost on the horizon. So a high pressure system moves over to the south east
00:46delivering calm clear still days. As we know that really ramps up the frost risk, but because of that
00:53cold air mass that's just moved through as well, it increases it even further. But it's meaning that
00:59it's dry down here in the south east. You can see 25 to 50 mils possible on the east coast.
01:06That is as
01:07strong onshore winds deliver a bit of moisture and just some onshore rainfall. And then down here in
01:14the south west, there's a little bit of rainfall at the start of the week with showers and then towards
01:18the end of the week just as a cutoff low and a trough moves across. There's some light showers as
01:23well
01:24in the interior with some upper level troughs and of course just always raining cans. All right, let's
01:31discuss this frost risk. So we're looking at Monday morning. It looks relatively similar most days, but for
01:36multiple days we're having large areas in the negative 5 to 0 degrees. That's this dark blue. This moderate
01:44blue is 0 to 5 degrees. So you can see that's much of the south east. That is definitely likely
01:50to
01:50experience frost. Now even further out from that, we're likely to also see a high fog risk as well. So
01:57it's frosty and it's foggy for multiple days in a row. Definitely something to watch out for if your crops
02:04are at a susceptible phase. Okay, let's look at the wind story. So it's relatively calm and stable. We're
02:10looking here at Monday midday. A little bit of wind, but most of the wind is still in this low
02:18pressure
02:18system that moved over us last week and brought a lot of that rain on the Thursday, Friday to the
02:23southeast. That is having this onshore strong drift which is bringing cool moist air and that's where that
02:31rainfall is coming. We have the jet sitting relatively strongly over the north and that's where our 20 to 30
02:38kilometre gusts come from. And then it's relatively quiet down in the south west at the start of the
02:45week. I want to zoom ahead to Saturday just to show you that there is some weather on the way.
02:52There is
02:53a low pressure system that's moving across, really ramping up wind speeds anywhere between like gale force
03:00to very strong gale force winds coming. However, looking at multiple models, some have it sitting much
03:06further over the mainland, some having it further into the ocean. So that's something we're going to have to
03:10keep a watch out as the models continue to progress to see where that system is moving and how much
03:16of the
03:17continent will actually experience that rain and that wind. Very briefly, let's have a look at the climate
03:24modes driving a lot of weather at the moment. We've got the southern annular mode which has hit some record
03:29breaking positive values. The southern annular mode really dictates a lot of weather in the south east.
03:36It's responsible for having a not very productive snow season, which is what we've seen. It also tends
03:42to dry out very southern parts of Australia, but bring quite a bit of rain to the east coast. So
03:49that's
03:49happening alongside, as we know, a potentially record breaking ENSO. Some models are still popping up really high
03:57in the positive phases. Some are bringing it back down to moderate. And that's what we really discussed
04:02a few weeks ago is that we know it's positive. We know we're going into El Niño, but we don't
04:07quite
04:07know the strength of that just yet. Alright, so let's wrap up just quickly that story again. We've got a
04:14high pressure system in the southeast bringing fog, frost, low winds, really low temperatures. We've got
04:22rainfall and strong winds for much of the east coast from multiple days at the start of the week.
04:27And then we have some troughs in the interior bringing showers with showers as well in the
04:32southwest. Alright, that is the weather for the national forecast this week. If you're interested in
04:38a more detailed state-by-state breakdown, we have them available for you as well. We'll see you there.
04:43So
04:43you
04:43you
04:43you
04:43you
04:43you
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