00:03Hello southeastern Australia. It is Saturday the 28th of June and this is your weather update for
00:09New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia. There's a lot going on this week so
00:14we're going to go through it day by day but main highlights are is that we have lots of rain
00:18coming
00:19for regions of multiple days which will likely lead to flood risk warnings across many of the
00:25eastern states. South Australia is not receiving as much of the weather as New South Wales Vic and Tas
00:32are. The first weather system is a trough delivering tropical moisture and the second is a cold front
00:39meaning that it's going to take down the temperatures. It's also going to increase the
00:45wind but there might be snow on the way for the alpine regions so let's take a dive. All right
00:51what we're looking at here is rainfall on the left wind on the right. Let's start on Monday.
00:58So Monday the trough starts to come in and deliver falls moderately max 15 to 25 mils in the central
01:08regions of New South Wales and it extends into the north of Victoria. Winds as you can see are still
01:14light so likely fog then. There are going to be some northerly winds for South Australia. Yeah nothing
01:25crazy. Let's go into Tuesday. You can see that this trough that has again connections to tropical moisture
01:35it started to intensify and it's intensifying over the alpine regions. Possibility of 50 to 75 mils
01:43in some localized areas but more likely you're going to be seeing 25 to 50 mils across most of those.
01:50New South Wales probably more 10 to 15 maybe 15 to 25. South Australia as you can see is nice
01:57and dry
01:58on the Tuesday. Northern Tassie getting that 15 to 25. Okay so that's that's the first really troughy
02:06system and then Wednesday here is where we can start to see the front coming and intensifying. So this is
02:14the low pressure system that's the second one coming across and the winds are strong across South
02:22Australia's coast and they're more southerly winds so they're going to start bringing cold temperatures.
02:28The winds up into the alpine regions as well strong gusting 40 to 63 knots. New South Wales is mostly
02:37going to see strong to moderate falls 25 to 50 mils or 15 to 25. This also extends again into
02:44Victoria and
02:45Tasmania. That is the second day in a row with moderate to intense rainfalls so we're starting to increase
02:52our flood risk here. Then on Thursday again strong rain especially third day in the row or fourth day in
03:00the row now I should say sorry for Victoria's alpine regions and the north of Tasmania 25 to 50 mils
03:07for
03:07both of those regions and the wind on Thursday is stronger again. All right so gusts 63 to 90
03:17kilometers in those coastal regions both on the south and now in the east coast as well. Let's go to
03:23Friday where winds intensify again still especially in the Tasman and into Tasmania we're seeing potential
03:32gusts of gusts between or over 90 kilometers I should say. The rainfall though is reducing so
03:39most of the southeast of so South Australia New South Wales and the eastern side of Victoria are going
03:46to be quite dry maybe some light showers but again along those alpine regions we're having another day of
03:53moderate rainfalls. The west coast of Tasmania there as well. On Saturday is when we're going
04:02to start to see this high pressure system from Friday move over and settle more into the east coast so
04:10we can see almost no rainfall now on the weekend light winds for most of the inland areas and because
04:22we've had lots of moisture it's going to be probably pretty foggy but Tasmania southern parts of Tasmania
04:28gusts over 90 kilometers an hour are possible there as well. Okay so that's the big story day by day
04:35of
04:35what's happening. We're now going to go from Tasmania into Victoria and then New South Wales just to locally
04:41look at the span of confidence that we have in each of those forecasts. Okay starting in Sheffield in the
04:49north of Tassie we can see multiple days of 10 20 25 35 8 mils of rain so good chance
04:58of flood risk being
04:59there and the span of confidence is between 10 and 15 mils every day. I think that's really quite standard
05:06with the system that we're seeing ahead so there's definitely rainfall coming it's definitely going to be
05:11at least moderate it's just whether the severe dump of rainfall will fall on each particular location
05:19and that's really what the span of confidence is there in Sheffield. There's also fog risk on all of
05:26those days but relatively and relatively light winds which is that fog risk spraying conditions
05:32poor for the whole week. Let's move up into Falls Creek now. Falls Creek we've got rainfall
05:3811 45 37 30 mils for the first four days and then rainfall drops and snowfall takes over from
05:46Thursday onwards. Snowfall on Friday is reaching down to 1100 meters so that might be good news if
05:55you're looking out for snow. If you're looking at this confidence range though for example let's look at
06:01the 45 mils on Tuesday I want to look at the pro version of this okay all of our models
06:10seem
06:10relatively confident that there's rainfall coming even let's actually let's look at this Wednesday
06:15okay there's lots of rainfall on the way so where is this risk or uncertainty coming from anywhere between
06:210 and 59 mils it's because it could also potentially fall as snow. Now I'm telling you I'll put my
06:29little
06:29meteorology cap hat on and say it is not going to fall as snow that rainfall is really really likely
06:37and that's just because the thickness line that we see you might have heard of it the 540 thickness line
06:42um on Tuesday and into Wednesday that's down in Tassie it has not come up that cold air is not
06:49yet
06:50in the alpine region so that rainfall estimate is quite likely. All right finally hitting off uh not
06:58hitting off we're gonna leave in Dubbo. Dubbo is again seeing the moderate rainfalls nowhere near
07:05as severe as we just saw in those more southern areas but again multiple days 13, 10, 18 mils
07:12with a reasonable range of confidence again just about where it falls multiple days of fog poor spray
07:19conditions across the week yeah let's say look into the weekend when maybe some good news is coming
07:25um in terms of spraying conditions are improving on the weekend the fog risk is still there Sunday it's
07:32improving and wind has backed off. All right so let's finish up wrapping up here the southeast of
07:41Australia you have moderate to severe rainfall coming for multiple days in a row which is likely to
07:48contribute to flood risk you will likely see fog on most if not all days coming up ahead for next
07:55week
07:56and South Australia in particular you are not receiving anywhere near as much weather as these
08:02three states so something to be mindful of okay. That is the weather for this week I'll see you next
08:08time.
Comments